Saturday, February 6, 2010

The Super Bowl

Here it is. The biggest game of the year. In a rare case, this year's game has bestowed upon us the two teams that have actually proven to be the best two teams in football all season. The Saints and the Colts were the top two teams on my power rankings from week 5 to week 15, the vast majority of the NFL regular season. From potentially undefeated, to late season losses, to worries of Chargers, Eagles, Jets and Vikings, these two teams have proven their worth as the best in football. But that is all in the past. Now we get to the game itself. Who will win? And more importantly, why will they win?

And for that, you have turned to me, and my powers of prognostication. Whether that is smart or not, who knows, only time will tell. But I will at least offer up some facts that will back up my position, rather than simply speaking from the heart.

My pick: Saints 31 Colts 27

That's right, not only will the Saints cover the spread (currently at +4.5) but they will win the game. A lot of experts have said this goes against all common sense, but I'm here to defend my pick. So here we go. Geezer's reasons why the Saints will win the first ever Super Bowl in franchise history.

Reason #1:

Drew Brees is just as good as Peyton Manning. Yes, you heard me correctly. Everyone seems to be stating that the number one reason the Colts will win this game is because of Peyton Manning. Well has everyone forgotten just how good the guy on the other side of the ball is? Let’s just look at their numbers from this season.

Drew Brees: 4,388 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 109.8 QB rating, 70.6% completions

Peyton Manning: 4500 yards, 33, TDs, 16 INTs, 99.9 QB rating and 68.8% completions.

If you go over their last few seasons, Brees has been better than Manning, although slightly. Does that mean Brees is the better quarterback? I wouldn't say that, but I would say they are equal. Just because Peyton Manning has a Superbowl ring and destroyed the Jets defense last week does not put him leaps and bounds ahead of Drew Brees. Absolutely not. The QB advantage will be a non factor.

On top of that, I feel Brees will have a chip on his shoulder coming into this game. He has something to prove. He doesn't have a ring, and therefore will always be looked at as a second class citizen in NFL circles until he does. He has a lot to gain by winning this football game. Manning does too, of course, but he is already established as one of the best ever. The game means more to Drew Brees, and to the Saints as a whole, which brings me to reason number two.

Reason #2

The Saints will want this game more. Between the city of New Orleans binding together with this team after Hurricane Katrina, to the fact that this may be their one shot at Super Bowl glory in a city that has been mired in a Championship-less slump for their entire 43 years of existence. This game means more to this team. The Colts have been there. They have done that. They got their ring. This Saints team can not fall back on that. I believe this gives them an edge. They know that they may never get another chance. They may never be this good again. They will be motivated beyond anything we've seen before. This also comes from having a large edge in coaching, with Sean Payton, easily one of the best coaches in the game at this point. They will be fired up, with Who Dat Nation behind them. It will translate to the field. A lot of analysts have cited this as a bad thing, that they have no experience, well I'm of the belief that motivation is more important than experience. Which brings me to reason number three.

Reason #3

The "Nobody believes in us!" factor. This is the best motivator a team can have. When no one is picking your team to win, a good coach will never let his team forget it. They see it every day. They see Donovan McNabb and Tony Dungy predicting 17 point Colts blow outs. They see that 2/3 of the public believes the Colts will win. And that is even including all the Saints sympathy votes based on them being the team everyone "wants" to win. They see that they were 6 point underdogs at one point. They know that no one expects them to win this game. They will come out, as the Giants did in 2007, ready to shock the world and the so-called experts.

Reason #4

Dwight Freeney. The biggest storyline of the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl has, of course, been Dwight Freeney's ankle. Now they have said that it is getting better. However, I don't think they would say anything else. He is going to play, but I don't expect him to be close to 100%. This reduces the Colts' biggest defensive weapon to a mere mortal. Brees will have a lot more time to throw the ball against an already weak defense (more on that in a bit) and they will be much more capable of running the ball (more on that too!). Without Freeney on the edge, the pass rush suffers, which directly causes the secondary to suffer. Reggie Bush will be more effective as you don't need to worry about Freeney making too many open field tackles or chasing him down on the outside. This is a huge advantage for the Saints, and has already swung the line on this game a full point and a half. Freeney is the second most important player on the Colts (behind Manning of course) and without him at full strength, an already dynamic offense just got better.

Reason #5

The Saints have a MUCH more balanced offensive attack. The Colts are the most one-dimensional team in football. They were second in the league in passing attempts per game and second to last in rushing attempts per game. Now this has worked for them all season, obviously. They have been dead last in rushing all year and still went 14-2 and made the Super Bowl. But in a game like this, one dimensional teams can rarely overcome all the game planning that goes into the two weeks leading up to the Big Game. The Saints will have a plan to stop the Colts. There is no reason that they wouldn't give them the running game. Daring them to run the ball by dropping 6 or 7 defensive backs on every single play, or pass blitzing, as we know they already plan to do. They will not need to play the run, as the Colts do not run the ball. And if they can get the Colts off their game and make them start running the ball often, well that will be even better for them. It is a decided advantage for the Saints.

The Colts do not have this same advantage. The Saints had one of the most balanced attacks in the league. They barely threw the ball more than they ran in the regular season. They were 7th in rushing attempts per game with 29.2. They were 15th in passing attempts with 34 per game. This is why they have had such a dynamite offense. They are able to keep opposing defenses off balance. They don't know what is coming. They don't know where it is coming from. They have so many receivers that the other team has to watch out for: Colston, Meachem, Henderson, Shockey, David Thomas, Moore and the two running backs, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have proven to be great out of the backfield. Bush, although a big disappointment, still has the ability to break open a big play, as he showed against Arizona. And on top of that, Pierre Thomas is a great back! He is one of the most versatile in the game, whether it be swing routes out of the backfield or punching it up the middle, he is reliable. This balance that the Saints bring to their offense will be very difficult for the Colts to stop. They had trouble stopping Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets for a whole half in the AFC championship game. How exactly are they going to keep the Saints off the board?

Reason #6

The Saints defense is not that bad. Or, more importantly, is not much worse than that of the team they are playing, the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, the Vikings made the Saints look awful in the NFC Championship game, but I like to put more stake into how a team plays all year rather than one game. Let’s compare the two defenses:

New Orleans Saints: 235.6 Passing y/g, 15 passing TDs allowed, 28 INTs, 122.6 Rushing y/g, 19 Rushing TDs allowed, 3 Fumbles Forced (but 5 just last week, as we recall)

Indianapolis Colts: 212.7 Passing yards/g, 19 Passing TDs allowed, 16 INTs, 126.5 Rushing y/g, 10 Rushing TDs allowed, 5 Fumbles Forced

So what can we take away from these numbers? Well the Saints did give up 23 more passing yards per game. However, in the touchdown department, they gave up fewer than the Colts through the air. In fact, they were 5th in the league in passing TDs allowed. It was very difficult for teams to punch the ball in the end zone through the air against this defense, which is the Colts bread and butter. They also grabbed TWELVE more interceptions than the Colts, a stat that I think is crucial. This defense is a bunch of ball hawks. They are very good at picking off routes and if they can get one or two from Manning (16 on the season to Brees' 11), that could be crucial.

The Saints have allowed quite a few rushing yards per game, as have the Colts. They have allowed many more rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Colts, they can not run the ball. They only had 16 rushing touchdowns all season, so they will most likely be unable to take advantage of this. Basically speaking, the Colts do not match up well to take advantage of the Saints deficiencies on Defense. They will get their points, but it should not be enough to overcome their own problems on defense. I think it is crazy to site New Orleans' defense as a major factor for why the Colts will win the game. Just look at the numbers people, they tell it all.

Reason #7

I wanted to get this list up to lucky number 7, and for my 7th reason, I am going to use my own heart. It is very difficult for me to pick against it. It is my only reason that I can't justifiably back up. There are no facts behind it, no logic. Just a gut feeling and a hope. I will be pulling for this team to win tomorrow. I want to see them win it for New Orleans. I want to see the Colts go down. So for my lucky number 7th reason, I am choosing the team that I want to win the game. And is that really so bad?

Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say they gonna beat them Saints??? No one. That's who. Go Saints.