As promised, my NFL Power Rankings are here, for the first time this season. I'm still not sold completely on any of these rankings, but at least through 3 weeks of football, this is how I see the teams stacking up.
In case you missed it from last year, I will be separating the teams into 4 categories: The Elite, The Contenders, The Mediocre, and The Garbage (new name this year). The names should be pretty self explanatory, then their will be a few words on the teams in each category and why they are where they are, especially if a team was a significant mover from the previous week.
So here we go, the first Power Rankings of the year commences...
The Elite
No one.
That's right, going a little unprecedented here, but there have been no elite teams in the NFL this season. Had the Packers not used 18 penalties to beat themselves against the Bears, they would have made this list, but they totally derailed their Elite status in the Monday Nighter.
The Contenders
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Green Bay Packers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Tennessee Titans
6. New York Jets
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Chicago Bears
9. Houston Texans
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Miami Dolphins
12. Kansas City Chiefs
Twelve teams make the cut as contenders for week 4, with Pittsburgh on top. They have simply outperformed everyone, with a difficult schedule, and without their starting quarterback. That, folks, is ridiculous. How have they done it? With a defense that is simply other-worldly. Like I have said before, Troy Polamalu might just be the MVP of this league.
The other two undefeated teams are also surprise contenders, the Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs. I think its safe to say that no one saw these teams opening the season 3-0, but they certainly have to be considered contenders now. Jay Cutler has looked really sharp in Mike Martz' offensive system, and could be a fantasy juggernaut for anyone who trusted him. And he might just lead this Bears team to a run at the Super Bowl. I'm not quite so high on the Chiefs, because I don't trust Matt Cassel as much, but they do have some serious weapons in Thomas Jones, Jamal Charles, and rookie Dexter McCluster. Add an improved defense and this team has to be considered a contender.
The rest of the teams are more or less the same teams I expected to contend for this year's title, so we'll get into them more as the weeks go on.
The Mediocre
13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. New England Patriots
15. San Diego Chargers
16. Cincinnati Bengals
17. Dallas Cowboys
18. Seattle Seahawks
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Denver Broncos
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22. Washington Redskins
There are a couple teams in this group that come as a shock to me. First, the Dallas Cowboys, who currently sit at 1-2. If they hadn't pulled off a huge, season-saving win over Houston, they wouldn't even make the mediocre list. They have played overwhelmingly poor considering their level of talent. Wade Phillips seat could not be hotter, and if they don't continue to gain steam in this weak division, he will be fired mid-season.
The San Diego Chargers have also failed to impress in the early going, and need to get a move on because, as I mentioned, KC are true contenders. It would help if their stud rookie Ryan Mathews could get healthy, or if they had Vincent Jackson. I am not terribly worried about this team, as the division still isn't terribly strong with the Raiders and Broncos in it, but they need to get it together, and fast.
The New England Patriots are nothing more than a mediocre football team at this point. Their offence is great, but their defense is worse than I thought. They gave up 30 points to Buffalo, the worst team in football! That is startlingly bad. I don't see how a team with their defense can compete with any team that has some decent talent, as they showed in their loss to the Jets. These are not the Patriots of their glory years. Those 3 Super Bowls are in the rear-view mirror, and I don't think they are coming back any time soon.
There are two teams that should be glad to achieve mediocre status, the Seahawks and Buccaneers. I thought both of these currently 2-1 teams would be horrible, but Seattle is in the driver seat in the NFC West (not that that is saying much) and Tampa Bay has shown some fight. Will be interesting to see if either can keep it up.
The Garbage
23. New York Giants
24. Arizona Cardinals
25. Oakland Raiders
26. Cleveland Browns
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Detroit Lions
29. San Francisco 49ers
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Carolina Panthers
32. Buffalo Bills
Many of these teams are no surprise. The Raiders, Browns, Rams, Lions and Bills have been cellar dwellers for a few years now. However, teams like the Giants, Cardinals and those damn Niners were certainly not expected.
I've been hailing the New York Giants as a mediocre team at best for two years now. But now? They are just plain Garbage. They have the single most over-rated defense in all of football. Eli Manning is not the superstar quarterback the New York media would have you believe. this team is very far removed from its Super Bowl victory of 2007.
Arizona has fallen so far this season it is staggering. Now, it was not difficult to see this coming, but by season's end they might be the league's worst team. Kurt Warner was just so valuable for this team, and losing one of the league's best receivers (Boldin) doesn't help either. The two losses they have already grabbed may be their last for some time.
And then their are the San Francisco 49ers. My mortal nemesis. I predicted this team to be horrible last season, and they played very well and surprised me, costing me money. This season? Of course I translated the impression they left on me last year into a leap forward this year and a division win. So what does San Francisco do? They come up and start 0-3 and look absolutely horrible. Alex Smith goes back to the old Alex Smith. Michael Crabtree, who looked like a star down the stretch last year, has been useless. The division is terrible, so they still have a good chance to bounce back, probably better than anyone else on this list because of the schedule, but it needs to happen soon. Are you listening Mike Singletary? Your seat is hotter than Wade Phillips'!
And then there's Buffalo... poor poor Buffalo. Andrew Luck anyone?
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Week 3 Picks
After this week, there will be a full set of Power Rankings. I promise. Between time constraints and the fact that two weeks can't tell us much anyway, they just can't be done before this Sunday. But starting next week there will be two columns a week, power rankings, along with the usual picks. Enjoy your week 3 picks for now!
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com
Home team in CAPS
Tennessee (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
I'm not terribly confident either way in this one, so I will take my team. The Giants got SMOKED last week by the Colts, and the Titans were shut down on offense by a surprisingly outstanding Pittsburgh defense (more on that later). It will be a very interesting game, to see if either of these teams are for real.
NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Buffalo
Its a TON of points, but Tom Brady comes back huge after just about every bad game he has had in his career. Its like clockwork. I expect an offensive show out of the pats, through the air and on the ground. Green Bay covered 13 easily last week, I see the same for New England here. The Bills are in for a whipping boy season. Good luck getting Andrew Luck in the draft!
BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland
I just don't see how Cleveland moves the ball against the Baltimore defense. And this could definitely be the week that Joe Flacco puts it together for the first time this season. The Browns are very much like the Bills. They stink.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh's defense was other-worldly against Tennessee. Troy Polamalu might be the single most valuable player in the NFL. Not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees or Tom Brady, Troy Polamalu. He is the most important player on a defense that can shut you DOWN. Tampa has been impressive through two games, but they get their first big test of the season, and I think they fail, miserably.
CAROLINA (+3.5) over Cincinnati
This is a tough one for me. I think Cincinnati stinks, but Carolina has PROVEN that they do. I'm only taking them because they are getting points at home, and they need to win. I'm not confident at all.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Atlanta
Boy, Atlanta sure looked good against Arizona last week. But lets face it, Arizona is awful. New Orleans is not. Drew Brees, at home, against Matt Ryan and a banged up Michael Turner. I have to take the favorite.
KANSAS CITY (+2.5) over San Francisco
I've really got no idea. San Francisco is my mortal gambling enemy. No matter what I say they will do, they do the opposite. So I will pick Kansas City here, in hopes that the Niners win, and help out my over/under season bet on them. But somehow I'm sure it will blow up in my face. I hate you San Francisco.
HOUSTON (-2.5) over Dallas
Houston is going to not only prove that it is the best team in Texas, it is also going to end Jerry Jones bid for a home Super Bowl, and end Wade Phillips tenure as head coach of the Cowboys. The Texans are tough to beat. And the NFC East, is pretty bad, which is a big surprise to just about everyone.
Washington (-4.5) over ST. LOUIS
Speaking of the bad NFC East, are the Redskins the best team in it? I can't bring myself to say they are. I just can't do it, not yet anyway. But they are definitely above the level of being a bad football team, so they really should handle the Rams pretty easily.
Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
I don't like this Michael Vick experiment in Philly, but I do think it will get them past Jacksonville. I just don't understand how Kevin Kolb goes from being the guy to being the other guy after one half of football and an injury. I think Vick has yet to show why he was never all that successful before he went to prison, but he will soon enough. I just don't think Jacksonville is good enough to be the team to expose him.
Indianapolis (-6) over DENVER
With no Moreno, that leaves Denver with Correll Buckhalter and Lawrence Maroney in the backfield. You beat the Colts by running the ball relentlessly on them. Denver has two bad running backs. This should be more than easy for the Colts. The only reason this line isn't above 7 is the Denver home field advantage, and although it is one of the better fields in the league, it won't be enough to stop the Colts.
SEATTLE (+4.5) over San Diego
Seattle is an entirely different team at home, as they showed in weeks one and two. I think San Diego is not quite as good as they used to be, and they are without starting running back Ryan Mathews. I think they get hit in the mouth here by a hungry Seattle team. Take the points.
New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI
Both teams are strong, but even without Revis the Jets will be very good at stopping Miami (a primarily ground attack team). I just don't see any team that can start running away with this division, and its just one of those classic upset type games. The Jets may be down an elite corner, and their number one receiver, but I just think they win this game. Call it a gut feeling, just like I had with them last week, and that worked out very well.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA
I don't get it. Don't get it one bit. What has Arizona done to show anyone that they have even a shred of hope this season? I am shocked by this line. I'd have the Raiders favored by 4.5 if I were setting the line. Getting points is a gift.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO
The Packers are not the Dallas Cowboys. Get ready for a rude awakening Chicago, you are not as good as you have played so far. I expect a rough day for Jay Cutler and his Bears. Packers shine in this Monday night contest between the sport's oldest rivals.
Lock of the Week
Detroit (+12) over MINNESOTA
Has Vegas not watched the first two weeks? These are two teams they have been way too slow to adjust their lines on. The Lions have proven they can cover a spread, and I'm riding that train. Brett Favre has shown that he is old, out of practice, and missing his number one weapon. I'll DEFINITELY take the 12 points.
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season: 18-10-4
Lock Picks: 3-2-1
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com
Home team in CAPS
Tennessee (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
I'm not terribly confident either way in this one, so I will take my team. The Giants got SMOKED last week by the Colts, and the Titans were shut down on offense by a surprisingly outstanding Pittsburgh defense (more on that later). It will be a very interesting game, to see if either of these teams are for real.
NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Buffalo
Its a TON of points, but Tom Brady comes back huge after just about every bad game he has had in his career. Its like clockwork. I expect an offensive show out of the pats, through the air and on the ground. Green Bay covered 13 easily last week, I see the same for New England here. The Bills are in for a whipping boy season. Good luck getting Andrew Luck in the draft!
BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland
I just don't see how Cleveland moves the ball against the Baltimore defense. And this could definitely be the week that Joe Flacco puts it together for the first time this season. The Browns are very much like the Bills. They stink.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh's defense was other-worldly against Tennessee. Troy Polamalu might be the single most valuable player in the NFL. Not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees or Tom Brady, Troy Polamalu. He is the most important player on a defense that can shut you DOWN. Tampa has been impressive through two games, but they get their first big test of the season, and I think they fail, miserably.
CAROLINA (+3.5) over Cincinnati
This is a tough one for me. I think Cincinnati stinks, but Carolina has PROVEN that they do. I'm only taking them because they are getting points at home, and they need to win. I'm not confident at all.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Atlanta
Boy, Atlanta sure looked good against Arizona last week. But lets face it, Arizona is awful. New Orleans is not. Drew Brees, at home, against Matt Ryan and a banged up Michael Turner. I have to take the favorite.
KANSAS CITY (+2.5) over San Francisco
I've really got no idea. San Francisco is my mortal gambling enemy. No matter what I say they will do, they do the opposite. So I will pick Kansas City here, in hopes that the Niners win, and help out my over/under season bet on them. But somehow I'm sure it will blow up in my face. I hate you San Francisco.
HOUSTON (-2.5) over Dallas
Houston is going to not only prove that it is the best team in Texas, it is also going to end Jerry Jones bid for a home Super Bowl, and end Wade Phillips tenure as head coach of the Cowboys. The Texans are tough to beat. And the NFC East, is pretty bad, which is a big surprise to just about everyone.
Washington (-4.5) over ST. LOUIS
Speaking of the bad NFC East, are the Redskins the best team in it? I can't bring myself to say they are. I just can't do it, not yet anyway. But they are definitely above the level of being a bad football team, so they really should handle the Rams pretty easily.
Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
I don't like this Michael Vick experiment in Philly, but I do think it will get them past Jacksonville. I just don't understand how Kevin Kolb goes from being the guy to being the other guy after one half of football and an injury. I think Vick has yet to show why he was never all that successful before he went to prison, but he will soon enough. I just don't think Jacksonville is good enough to be the team to expose him.
Indianapolis (-6) over DENVER
With no Moreno, that leaves Denver with Correll Buckhalter and Lawrence Maroney in the backfield. You beat the Colts by running the ball relentlessly on them. Denver has two bad running backs. This should be more than easy for the Colts. The only reason this line isn't above 7 is the Denver home field advantage, and although it is one of the better fields in the league, it won't be enough to stop the Colts.
SEATTLE (+4.5) over San Diego
Seattle is an entirely different team at home, as they showed in weeks one and two. I think San Diego is not quite as good as they used to be, and they are without starting running back Ryan Mathews. I think they get hit in the mouth here by a hungry Seattle team. Take the points.
New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI
Both teams are strong, but even without Revis the Jets will be very good at stopping Miami (a primarily ground attack team). I just don't see any team that can start running away with this division, and its just one of those classic upset type games. The Jets may be down an elite corner, and their number one receiver, but I just think they win this game. Call it a gut feeling, just like I had with them last week, and that worked out very well.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA
I don't get it. Don't get it one bit. What has Arizona done to show anyone that they have even a shred of hope this season? I am shocked by this line. I'd have the Raiders favored by 4.5 if I were setting the line. Getting points is a gift.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO
The Packers are not the Dallas Cowboys. Get ready for a rude awakening Chicago, you are not as good as you have played so far. I expect a rough day for Jay Cutler and his Bears. Packers shine in this Monday night contest between the sport's oldest rivals.
Lock of the Week
Detroit (+12) over MINNESOTA
Has Vegas not watched the first two weeks? These are two teams they have been way too slow to adjust their lines on. The Lions have proven they can cover a spread, and I'm riding that train. Brett Favre has shown that he is old, out of practice, and missing his number one weapon. I'll DEFINITELY take the 12 points.
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season: 18-10-4
Lock Picks: 3-2-1
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Week 2 Picks
No Power Rankings as of yet, because I don't like to do them until we get a couple of games under our collective belts. Their's simply not enough separation between the teams after one week to write an effective PR column. Maybe next week, definitely by week 4. Here we go with my picks for tomorrow's games.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13) over Buffalo Bills
The Packers suffered a major blow to their offense, losing Ryan Grant in week one, and its going to be up to Brandon Jackson to step in and fill his shoes, but the Bills have an absolutely terrible rush defense. He should do fine here. I don't care how many points the spread is, I think Green Bay is the best in the league, and Buffalo might be the worst. Two touchdowns might be easy for the Packers.
Chicago (+7.5) over DALLAS
I think Chicago is a little better than Washington on both sides of the ball, and they managed to beat Dallas. I just don't see how not to take the underdog here. Maybe Dallas will come out firing on all cylinders, but after what I saw last week, I won't be trusting them until I see it.
TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Pittsburgh
The Titans were very easy money last week, and while I don't think the Steelers will be push-overs like the Raiders were, but without Big Ben, its going to be tough for them to hang with a very good Tennessee team on the road. Titans advance to 2-0.
DETROIT (+7) over Philadelphia
The Eagles will start Michael Vick at quarterback this week, his first start since being convicted of dog fighting, and I really don't trust that he will be in mid-season form. He does get an easy opponent to start off with, but I think the Lions actually have a shot at pulling the upset here. They should have won last week, but Calvin Johnson didn't know enough to actually hold onto the football, as I'm sure you've seen by now. The NFL needs to adapt their rules to account for Megatron's freakish hands. Detroit keeps it close here.
CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay
Carolina at home against a bad Tampa team? Whats not to like? I know the Giants dismantled the Panthers last week, but that showed me more about the Giants than the Panthers. I still think Tampa is no good, and really like that Carolina is only giving 3.
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona
Man Arizona looked bad against the Rams didn't they? Can't wait to see what Atlanta can do against a really weak defense. I;m very interested in the outcome here. If Atlanta is going to make the playoffs, its games like this that they need to handle with ease.
Miami (+6) over MINNESOTA
I predict a low scoring game with Miami coming out on top. Brett Favre looked out of practice, out of sync, and old against the Saints. They were only in that game because of their defense. They will be in this one here as well, but it will remain close, even if they do pull off the win. So I'll definitely take 6.
St. Louis (+3.5) over OAKLAND
Short and sweet, two terrible teams, take the points. Plus, St. Louis looked ok last week.
Seattle (+3.5) over DENVER
Yeah, this may be an overreaction to Seattle just brutally thrashing the Niners in week one, but so what? Its not like Denver is any good either. At least they didn't show that they were in week one. I'll take those points, and see if this Seattle team could be for real.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville
A very tough call for me, because I think Jacksonville has the ability to put up a fight, I just think this is almost a must win for San Diego. They need to bounce back against an inferior team and keep their footing in the division. I know its way too early for anything to be a real must win, but they will be fired up to show everyone the Kansas City game wasn't the real Chargers.
NEW YORK JETS (+3) over New England
Did the Patriots look good in week one? Of course! Were they playing a bad team, Absolutely! At least in my opinion. they are going to get punched in the mouth this week against their rival Jets. Its going to be loud in that stadium, and the Jets need this one. The Ravens (better than New England) barely got by New York, and I think the Jets take a close battle dominated by field goal kickers, 20-19.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over New York Giants
So Indy didn't look all that great in week one, at least on defense. But New York doesn't have the running game Houston had in week one either. Points are going to be through the roof in this one, and I think the older of the Manning's bests his brother by a touchdown.
New Orleans (-6) over SAN FRANSISCO
Yes, I'm bitter. San Francisco cost me money. I just can't bring myself to pick them this week. Its that simple in this Monday night match-up.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Houston (-3) over WASHINGTON
Two teams who's stock rose significantly in week one, but I will take the one that beat the better team, the Texans. I'm not ready to overvalue Washington yet. Give me that high powered offense with newfound fantasy gold Arian Foster.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Kansas City (+3) over CLEVELAND
I really don't understand how the Browns are favored in this game. Is it the short week? The road factor? Or do they just not buy the Chiefs after their win of San Diego last week. I don't see any reason why KC wouldn't beat the lowly Browns, comfortably.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore (-2.5) over CINCINNATI
Its easy for me to pick this game, because I think the Bengals stink. On top of that, I think the Ravens are really, really good. So add 2 and 2 together, you should get 4 every time. Ravens take this one easily.
Last Week: 8-5-3
Season: 8-5-3
Lock Picks: 2-1
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13) over Buffalo Bills
The Packers suffered a major blow to their offense, losing Ryan Grant in week one, and its going to be up to Brandon Jackson to step in and fill his shoes, but the Bills have an absolutely terrible rush defense. He should do fine here. I don't care how many points the spread is, I think Green Bay is the best in the league, and Buffalo might be the worst. Two touchdowns might be easy for the Packers.
Chicago (+7.5) over DALLAS
I think Chicago is a little better than Washington on both sides of the ball, and they managed to beat Dallas. I just don't see how not to take the underdog here. Maybe Dallas will come out firing on all cylinders, but after what I saw last week, I won't be trusting them until I see it.
TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Pittsburgh
The Titans were very easy money last week, and while I don't think the Steelers will be push-overs like the Raiders were, but without Big Ben, its going to be tough for them to hang with a very good Tennessee team on the road. Titans advance to 2-0.
DETROIT (+7) over Philadelphia
The Eagles will start Michael Vick at quarterback this week, his first start since being convicted of dog fighting, and I really don't trust that he will be in mid-season form. He does get an easy opponent to start off with, but I think the Lions actually have a shot at pulling the upset here. They should have won last week, but Calvin Johnson didn't know enough to actually hold onto the football, as I'm sure you've seen by now. The NFL needs to adapt their rules to account for Megatron's freakish hands. Detroit keeps it close here.
CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay
Carolina at home against a bad Tampa team? Whats not to like? I know the Giants dismantled the Panthers last week, but that showed me more about the Giants than the Panthers. I still think Tampa is no good, and really like that Carolina is only giving 3.
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona
Man Arizona looked bad against the Rams didn't they? Can't wait to see what Atlanta can do against a really weak defense. I;m very interested in the outcome here. If Atlanta is going to make the playoffs, its games like this that they need to handle with ease.
Miami (+6) over MINNESOTA
I predict a low scoring game with Miami coming out on top. Brett Favre looked out of practice, out of sync, and old against the Saints. They were only in that game because of their defense. They will be in this one here as well, but it will remain close, even if they do pull off the win. So I'll definitely take 6.
St. Louis (+3.5) over OAKLAND
Short and sweet, two terrible teams, take the points. Plus, St. Louis looked ok last week.
Seattle (+3.5) over DENVER
Yeah, this may be an overreaction to Seattle just brutally thrashing the Niners in week one, but so what? Its not like Denver is any good either. At least they didn't show that they were in week one. I'll take those points, and see if this Seattle team could be for real.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville
A very tough call for me, because I think Jacksonville has the ability to put up a fight, I just think this is almost a must win for San Diego. They need to bounce back against an inferior team and keep their footing in the division. I know its way too early for anything to be a real must win, but they will be fired up to show everyone the Kansas City game wasn't the real Chargers.
NEW YORK JETS (+3) over New England
Did the Patriots look good in week one? Of course! Were they playing a bad team, Absolutely! At least in my opinion. they are going to get punched in the mouth this week against their rival Jets. Its going to be loud in that stadium, and the Jets need this one. The Ravens (better than New England) barely got by New York, and I think the Jets take a close battle dominated by field goal kickers, 20-19.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over New York Giants
So Indy didn't look all that great in week one, at least on defense. But New York doesn't have the running game Houston had in week one either. Points are going to be through the roof in this one, and I think the older of the Manning's bests his brother by a touchdown.
New Orleans (-6) over SAN FRANSISCO
Yes, I'm bitter. San Francisco cost me money. I just can't bring myself to pick them this week. Its that simple in this Monday night match-up.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Houston (-3) over WASHINGTON
Two teams who's stock rose significantly in week one, but I will take the one that beat the better team, the Texans. I'm not ready to overvalue Washington yet. Give me that high powered offense with newfound fantasy gold Arian Foster.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Kansas City (+3) over CLEVELAND
I really don't understand how the Browns are favored in this game. Is it the short week? The road factor? Or do they just not buy the Chiefs after their win of San Diego last week. I don't see any reason why KC wouldn't beat the lowly Browns, comfortably.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore (-2.5) over CINCINNATI
Its easy for me to pick this game, because I think the Bengals stink. On top of that, I think the Ravens are really, really good. So add 2 and 2 together, you should get 4 every time. Ravens take this one easily.
Last Week: 8-5-3
Season: 8-5-3
Lock Picks: 2-1
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Week 1 Picks
Here's the drill, same as last year. I will be picking each NFL game, against the spread. I will include My Lock of the Week, as well as two runners-up. Are you ready for some football???
Home team in Caps
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO
I like the Lions to come out firing right from the start, and to actually win this game. The Bears aren't that good, and in a shoootout like this projects to be, I'm taking the points on the rising team.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati
There will be points scored in this one, as their will be in every New England game this season, but I believe their dynamic offense will prove too much for the Bengals, who I truly believe are in for a step back this season. Their defense isn't good enough to make up for the disparity between their offense and New England's.
Carolina (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
I like Carolina better than the Giants this season, and they are getting 6.5 points, so of course I am going to take them. Looks like the Giants are going to be overrated once again, and I am going to enjoy watching them wallow in mediocrity. Panthers take it on the road.
Atlanta (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH
A good team vs a good team without its starting quarter back? I'll take the team that isn't starting Dennis Dixon. Its really that simple.
Cleveland (+3) over TAMPA BAY
A strategy that I found to be very useful last season, and I don't plan on straying from this year, if two horrendous teams are matched up against each other, just take the points. Thats what I will do here with Cleveland over the Bucs.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Denver
I'm interested in this game because while I don't think either team is going to be good, I don't quite have a handle on them either. I'll take the home team here in week one, but there will be much to be learned in this game.
Indianapolis (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Like I said in the preview, until you prove you can beat the best teams, Houston, I can't pick you in these games. I have to take a stocked and ready Indianapolis team in this one. Only giving 2.5 is a gift.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona
Why not? Do I think they will win? No, not really. But hey, I think both teams have a very good chance at being atrocious, so once again, I'm just going to take the points.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
When do I not pick Green Bay? What can I say I just love this team, and I think its going to be a great statement game in week one against the Eagles on the road. Aaron Rodgers is not going to let Kevin Kolb beat him. No way.
Dallas (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Dallas may have looked bad in preseason, but at least their 100 million dollar defensive tackle isn't practicing with the scout team! McNabb is limping, and I just don't think Washington is in the same league as Dallas, but we'll find out Sunday night.
Baltimore (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Rex takes on his old team, and he has given Ray Lewis and the Ravens more than enough motivation to want to kick his ass. Expect a grind it out battle of the young running backs, but Baltimore is just a better team. They have a much more balanced attack. With two great defenses on the field, I'll take the QB and RB combo I trust, in Flacco and Rice. Should be a fun game though.
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over San Diego
Remember how I mentioned that the rest of the AFC West has gotten better? I'm displaying that opinion here, and saying that Kansas City will not only cover, but BEAT San Diego in the second Monday night game. I think it is going to take San Diego a little while to get in sync this season, with the rookie Running back and no Vincent Jackson. I still think they will be very good, but I think the opportunity is right there for a young and building Kansas City team to score a pretty nice upset in this one.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week:
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO
This is just an incredibly easy pick for me. I don't care that Miami has to travel to Buffalo. If it were December, that might be a factor, but not in week 1. Miami is just a much better team, and to cover three points shouldn't be a problem for them at all.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week:
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Oakland
This is almost too easy. Vegas doesn't realize how good the Titans are yet, and are overrating Oakland here. They still might be without their number one running back and I just don't see how they can stop Chris Johnson. Look for Tennessee to run all over them in an easy victory at home.
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
San Fransisco (-3) over SEATTLE
Really? Just three points? I know Seattle is historically a tough place to play, but really?? JUST THREE POINTS? San Fransisco rolls.
Home team in Caps
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO
I like the Lions to come out firing right from the start, and to actually win this game. The Bears aren't that good, and in a shoootout like this projects to be, I'm taking the points on the rising team.
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati
There will be points scored in this one, as their will be in every New England game this season, but I believe their dynamic offense will prove too much for the Bengals, who I truly believe are in for a step back this season. Their defense isn't good enough to make up for the disparity between their offense and New England's.
Carolina (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
I like Carolina better than the Giants this season, and they are getting 6.5 points, so of course I am going to take them. Looks like the Giants are going to be overrated once again, and I am going to enjoy watching them wallow in mediocrity. Panthers take it on the road.
Atlanta (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH
A good team vs a good team without its starting quarter back? I'll take the team that isn't starting Dennis Dixon. Its really that simple.
Cleveland (+3) over TAMPA BAY
A strategy that I found to be very useful last season, and I don't plan on straying from this year, if two horrendous teams are matched up against each other, just take the points. Thats what I will do here with Cleveland over the Bucs.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Denver
I'm interested in this game because while I don't think either team is going to be good, I don't quite have a handle on them either. I'll take the home team here in week one, but there will be much to be learned in this game.
Indianapolis (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Like I said in the preview, until you prove you can beat the best teams, Houston, I can't pick you in these games. I have to take a stocked and ready Indianapolis team in this one. Only giving 2.5 is a gift.
ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona
Why not? Do I think they will win? No, not really. But hey, I think both teams have a very good chance at being atrocious, so once again, I'm just going to take the points.
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
When do I not pick Green Bay? What can I say I just love this team, and I think its going to be a great statement game in week one against the Eagles on the road. Aaron Rodgers is not going to let Kevin Kolb beat him. No way.
Dallas (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Dallas may have looked bad in preseason, but at least their 100 million dollar defensive tackle isn't practicing with the scout team! McNabb is limping, and I just don't think Washington is in the same league as Dallas, but we'll find out Sunday night.
Baltimore (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Rex takes on his old team, and he has given Ray Lewis and the Ravens more than enough motivation to want to kick his ass. Expect a grind it out battle of the young running backs, but Baltimore is just a better team. They have a much more balanced attack. With two great defenses on the field, I'll take the QB and RB combo I trust, in Flacco and Rice. Should be a fun game though.
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over San Diego
Remember how I mentioned that the rest of the AFC West has gotten better? I'm displaying that opinion here, and saying that Kansas City will not only cover, but BEAT San Diego in the second Monday night game. I think it is going to take San Diego a little while to get in sync this season, with the rookie Running back and no Vincent Jackson. I still think they will be very good, but I think the opportunity is right there for a young and building Kansas City team to score a pretty nice upset in this one.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week:
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO
This is just an incredibly easy pick for me. I don't care that Miami has to travel to Buffalo. If it were December, that might be a factor, but not in week 1. Miami is just a much better team, and to cover three points shouldn't be a problem for them at all.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week:
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Oakland
This is almost too easy. Vegas doesn't realize how good the Titans are yet, and are overrating Oakland here. They still might be without their number one running back and I just don't see how they can stop Chris Johnson. Look for Tennessee to run all over them in an easy victory at home.
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
San Fransisco (-3) over SEATTLE
Really? Just three points? I know Seattle is historically a tough place to play, but really?? JUST THREE POINTS? San Fransisco rolls.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Can you Taste It?
Ahhh finally. Its here. The day we have all been waiting for... Or at least the day I have been waiting for! The Super Bowl was a mere 7 months ago, but it has seemed like an eternity. Now its time to get my act together and start writing again. I've decided to scrap any hope of covering anything else, and just sticking to what I love to write about most, the NFL. As you can see, the blog has a new title, Geezer's Gridiron, and an all new background, the MAN Chris Johnson. He will be the poster boy of the blog for now, but that could change down the road. Hope you all enjoy the changes, and are looking forward to the season as much as I look forward to writing about it.
You know the drill. A complete division by division breakdown of how I expect the NFL season to play out (and of course, I will be wrong!) complete with team records, division winners, wild card spots, playoff match-ups and your eventual Super Bowl Champion!
And on that note, let's get on with the show!
AFC East
I start with, in my opinion, the most hotly contested division in football. The Patriots are no longer a dynasty, and are coming back down to the pack in their division. As this is happening, the Jets and Dolphins are getting better. New York has the league's best defense, especially now that Revis is signed. However, they also have one of the league's most absolutely God-Awful offenses. Can this team win with Mark Sanchez at the helm? Well they looked good in the playoffs, but had they not received two gifts in the last two weeks, they wouldn't have even made them. It will be very interesting to watch a team like the Patriots, who are the exact opposite with their high powered offense and lackluster defense battle these Jets. Who comes out on top?
But don't sleep on those Miami Dolphins. A good young Quarterback in Henne who now has a legitimate weapon to throw to in Brandon Marshall, a system under Tony Sparano that just works, an above average defense and a solid running game, this team will be as good as the other two in the division, and are certainly the most well rounded. They have every bit the chance the Jets and Patriots do of winning.
And well, the Bills.... they might just be the worst team in football this year. Better luck next year, and good luck in the draft!
Overall, I think this division comes down to the last week of the season, and eventually might even come down to some crazy tie-break scenarios, with the Jets taking it in the end:
New York Jets 10-6
New England Patriots 9-7
Miami Dolphins 9-7
Buffalo Bills 2-14
AFC North
Lots of interesting topics in this division, not the least of which being the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers. Even with his suspension reduced from 6 games to 4, it is still a major blow. On top of that, 3 of the 4 games he will miss are going to be very tough. Despite that opening stretch, I still think this team has enough to stay afloat and fight for a playoff spot down the final stretch.
Another off-season storyline out of the AFC North comes from Cincinnati: the acquisition of T.O. Well, I'm here to tell you that this is going to be a disaster. Not only because he is a major distraction, but mainly, because he has severely diminished skills. He is just too old at this point to have any kind of real impact on this team. That means it remains a running football team, and can Cedric Benson put up numbers like he did last year? I highly doubt it. He is bound to break down, along with the rest of the Bengals.
The Baltimore Ravens are the talk of the offseason, with their acquisition of Anquan Boldin, emerging superstar Joe Flacco now has a true number one to throw to, to go along with sure-handed Derrick Mason and ex-Bengal T.J. Houshmandzadeh, many have this team taking the leap to the next level, and count me among them. I love this team (and if you looked at any of my fantasy teams, you'd know how much). They are a complete football team. They really don't have a weakness. Ray Rice is elite already, and we will all be saying that about Flacco at season's end. This could be the best team in football, and I think they are the team to beat in the AFC.
And then there are the Cleveland Browns... like the Bills in the East, someone has to finish last. Jake Delhomme is NOT the answer, Cleveland fans.
Baltimore Ravens 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Cleveland Browns 3-13
AFC West
Oh the AFC West. I made the bold statement last season that if the Chargers didn't win the division, I would never make another NFL prediction again. And despite Denver jumping out to a 6-0 start, they still won. And, with the weaknesses all around the division, the Chargers should take the division again, but I'm not willing to make that bold statement again this year. There are some definite question marks with the San Diego team, but I'm not too worried. The division is still the weakest in the AFC, and the schedule is friendly. Even without Vincent Jackson, with Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Legadu Nanee (just a great name!) I still think Phillip Rivers will have plenty of weapons to spread the ball around to. He is still an elite talent, he will find the open man. On top of that, I love the draft pick of Ryan Mathews. This kid is the real deal, and you will see why right away, as he is slated to get the bulk of this year's carries for the Chargers. He is going to make Charger fans forget about the loss of the once great LT very soon.
As for the other teams in the division, they have graduated, from flaming turds, to mediocrity. I think the Chiefs will finish second in the division. They need to give Jamaal Charles the rock, because this kid is a stud. Forget about Thomas Jones, you can not continue to keep Charles down. With a full workload he could be a top 5 back. Matt Cassel has paired with old Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weiss seems like a good fit, at least on paper, and I think he will have a bounce back year in year two under this system. The defense remains questionable, but they will be better.
I think Denver remains about the same as last year. There are just too many questions left unanswered. Will Moreno bounce back from injury? Can Orton lead a team to a winning season? How will the team use Tim Tebow? Can they recover from last year's collapse. I think they have a good future ahead, but its just not in the cards this season for them.
The Oakland Raiders seem to be a dark horse pick to win some games this season now that JeMarcus Russell is out at quarterback, but my question is, "What did Jason Campbell ever win in Washington?" So yes, it is an upgrade, and they will get a couple extra wins, but they are not taking a leap out of the bottom of this division. They still have a long way to go. They need Michael Bush to get over his thumb injury fast, because he is the class of this team, and Darren McFadden is just terrible.
San Diego Chargers 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Denver Broncos 7-9
Oakland Raiders 4-12
AFC South
The division that houses my Tennessee Titans also houses the defending AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts. If you want to win the AFC, it runs through them, and it will be no easy task. Peyton Manning isn't getting worse any time soon, and he just has all new toys to play with in WRs Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, the return of Anthony Gonzalez, and oh yeah, two guys named Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. They couldn't run last year, but they didn't have to (well, not until the Super Bowl) and they will win games the same way this year. Expect another successful season from them, but one that may just be a disappointment considering...
The Titans are going to win the division. It will be close. It will be a battle. It will come down to the final game of the season. It will come down to a tiebreak of head to head matchups, and I believe the Titans take that tiebreak by beating the Colts TWICE. Yes, I am biased. But yes, this can definitely happen. There is a reason Chris Johnson is the Geezer's Gridiron poster boy, he is going to get 2500 yards this season. Barring injury, he is going to set records. The man is like lightning, and there is no catching him when he breaks away. I know the common theme is to state that the NFL is a passing game, and it is, but it is so because there are not very many Chris Johnson's in the league. Good luck stopping him. With a full season of Vince Young (who led this team to an 8-2 record last year, he is just a WINNER) along with a better defense, and a throwing game that will take a leap forward, this team is going to win the division and de-thrown the defending champs.
As for the rest of the division, I think the Texans are a clear third. High powered offense with a decent defense, but a difficult schedule makes for another nice 9-7 season. They haven't shown me any reason to believe they can make it to the playoffs, and I'm done believing that they can do it. Prove it, then I'll bite, Houston.
And the Jaguars are the distant fourth choice, and I think they will struggle and ultimately wind up finishing with another underwhelming season. Beyond MJD, this team doesn't have much of an offense, and the defense isn't all that great either.
Tennessee Titans 13-3
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 9-7
Jacksonville 5-11
NFC East
The NFC East houses another sexy Super Bowl pick, the host of Super Bowl XLV themselves, the Dallas Cowboys. Again, its easy to see why. They are loaded on both sides of the ball. I think they will have a fantastic regular season, as they usually do. The questions come, once again, once they reach the post season. They managed to win a game last year, and I just don't know if they can go any further this year. Do I trust Tony Romo, no, not really, and the NFC is pretty well loaded at the top this year. I don't think they get to host their own home Super Bowl, but I do think they win the division.
Their biggest competition, I believe, will come from the Philadelphia Eagles. Now I don't think the Eagles will be great, but they could be a sleeper. It all comes down to the play of Kevin Kolb. I'm sure he will have some games which will make you go "wow" and some where he just completely blows, and that should make for a very interesting season. There is a lot of young offensive talent on this team, they just might be a year or two away before they rise back to the top of the NFC.
The other two teams, well you know I'm no fan of the Giants, and although I think they have a great passing attack, the running game is awful and the defense is over-rated. They proved last year that they couldn't beat good teams, and they didn't do anything to impress me to make themselves better. Another mediocre performance.
And as for the Redskins... well... yes, they added Donovan McNabb, but what good will that be? They have a bevy of old, washed up running backs, an old, borderline washed up QB, not a very good defense, a tough division and non-divisional schedule. They will have another lost season, good luck in the draft.
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
New York Giants 7-9
Washington Redskins 5-11
NFC North
Remember last season, when I picked Green Bay to win it all? Yeah that didn't quite go as planned. Those pesky Minnesota Vikings got in the way, as well as the Arizona Cardinals (although that last play was a blatant facemask, but I digress). Well of those three teams, I believe only one is left standing this season, and it is the Green Bay Packers. They are just a complete football team, and healthy, they will be incredible again. Aaron Rodgers is ELITE in every sense of the word. They are only getting better with maturity and experience. They are going to dominate this division.
The team that gave them headaches last season is due for a huge fall. With the lack of Sidney Rice for half the season, an aging Brett Favre on a bad ankle that teams will be attacking all year and Percy Harvin dealing with migraine issues, they are not even a playoff team. I think Brett's streak of consecutive games started comes to an end this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he even gets knocked out of the season for good. Adrian Peterson can only carry an offense so far, and in a division with the Packers, they stand no chance.
As for the other two teams, I believe it will actually be a fight for third, rather than just penciling in the Lions for last again. Detroit is doing everything right to rebuild their team, and although I think they are at least 2 years away from competing, I think they are going to win some games this year. I love Stafford, love Jahvid Best, LOVE Calvin Johnson, and LOVE Ndamukong Suh. they are young, talented, and a couple of years away from being really good.
The Bears are this team that is just set up to perennially disappoint. They have Jay Cutler, the perennial disappointment quarterback. He is so much potential, but he has never been able to put it together. Matt Forte had a fantastic rookie year, then a MASSIVE disappointment in his second year (especially for fantasy purposes). The defense isn't what it used to be. I don't know what to make of them. They could go 2-14, or they could go 8-8, but I do think that is about their ceiling.
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Minnesota Vikings 7-9
Chicago Bears 6-10
Detroit Lions 5-11
NFC West
Oooh the NFC West... or the NFC Worst as I often call it.... yeah I know, that was bad, but so is this division! However, they do always seem to have one team that does well. Seattle and Arizona went to Super Bowls fairly recently, and this year, there is another team that has that kind of potential. That team is the San Francisco 49ers.
I had no faith in them going into last year. I thought they had no pass game, no Quarterback, a mediocre defense, and that Frank Gore couldn't put an entire team on his back. Well, Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis made me a true BELIEVER in this team. Couple that with the easiest schedule in football, and this team is a shoe in for the playoffs, and could be an absolute challenge to any team in the playoffs. Expect a huge leap in the level of this team. And the defense is anything but mediocre. I fully admit that I was completely wrong about this team.
As for the rest of the division, good luck is all I have to say. The Cardinals are the two time defending champs of the division, but they are now without their MVP QB Kurt Warner who retired, and it is up to Derek Anderson to lead the way. Forgive me if I'm not shuttering in fear. No Anquan Boldin is another massive blow to this team, and if it weren't for a fairly easy schedule, the fall could be DRASTIC. Hell it still might be. I'm not a Beanie Believer, and with only one offensive star (Larry Fitzgerald), I just don't know how they are going to win football games.
And its not like things get much better the deeper we go into this division... they get worse. Seattle has done nothing to say that they will be better than last year, if anything they are trying to get young in a hurry, which generally means a big drop off in immediate wins. Its going to be a rough start to the Pete Carroll Era.
As for the Rams... I'm going to say they win one more game this year. Maybe by 2016 they will be a .500 team. A rookie QB that could be good in the future, but now just has no one to throw to and I'm definitely not yet a believer. A star running back that can't stay healthy. A swiss cheese defense. The league's worst team, for the second straight year.
San Francisco 49ers 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 5-11
Seattle Seahawks 4-12
St. Louis Rams 2-14
NFC South
Home of your defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, and how sweet that victory was for New Orleans! Now the pattern has it that one team that makes the Super Bowl always fails to make the playoffs the next year. It is like clockwork. Never fails. So you know I picked the Colts to get one of the AFC Wild Card spots, so does that mean I am picking the Saints to miss the playoffs? Of course not!!! This is a Saints team that bucks the trend! Come on, they ruined the New Orleans history of sucking, why go back to that now? Drew Brees is too good a quarterback for this team to not make the playoffs. Plain and simple. Just having him on your team assures a spot. They should rule the roost in the NFC South once again.
The next two teams in this division intrigue me. Atlanta and Carolina both have young QBs looking to make a leap, they both have OUTSTANDING running games, they both have a stud Wide Receiver and they both have solid defenses. They will both be successful this season, and I think they will be fighting for the final NFC playoff spot when its all said and done. Who do I like more? Atlanta, but only slightly.
And then there is Tampa Bay. A team that can't run the ball, can't throw the ball, and can't stop anyone. Why am I wasting my breath on this team again? they were bad last year, and they might be even worse this year. I don't trust Josh Freeman, and I doubt I ever will.
New Orleans 13-3
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 3-13
So there you have it, my NFL division by division breakdown! But now for the good stuff! The predictions sure to go wrong!
AFC Round 1
Byes: Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts over New York Jets
San Diego Chargers over Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC Round 1
Byes: Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints
San Fransisco 49ers over Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons
AFC Round 2
Tennessee Titans over San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts
NFC Round 2
Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys
San Fransisco 49ers over New Orleans Saints
AFC Championship
Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over San Fransisco 49ers
And for your Super Bowl Champion.......
The Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know I picked them last year, and they let me down, but I am convinced that I was simply a year too early on them. It was going out on a bit of a limb last year, now its a "bandwagon" pick, but I have to stick with my guns. I love the Ravens almost as much, but I just don't think any team in football is as good in every aspect of the game as this Packers team. So for the second straight year, they are my pick.
So there you have it, my big, fat, Albert Haynesworth sized NFL preview and return to the blog. But before I go, one more thing.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5) over Minnesota Vikings
Get the year started on a good Gambling note folks! Hope you enjoyed my preview, and I hope to bring you plenty more where this came from. Good luck in week one, whether it be your team, your fantasy team, or your gambling habits! Until next time!
-Geezer
You know the drill. A complete division by division breakdown of how I expect the NFL season to play out (and of course, I will be wrong!) complete with team records, division winners, wild card spots, playoff match-ups and your eventual Super Bowl Champion!
And on that note, let's get on with the show!
AFC East
I start with, in my opinion, the most hotly contested division in football. The Patriots are no longer a dynasty, and are coming back down to the pack in their division. As this is happening, the Jets and Dolphins are getting better. New York has the league's best defense, especially now that Revis is signed. However, they also have one of the league's most absolutely God-Awful offenses. Can this team win with Mark Sanchez at the helm? Well they looked good in the playoffs, but had they not received two gifts in the last two weeks, they wouldn't have even made them. It will be very interesting to watch a team like the Patriots, who are the exact opposite with their high powered offense and lackluster defense battle these Jets. Who comes out on top?
But don't sleep on those Miami Dolphins. A good young Quarterback in Henne who now has a legitimate weapon to throw to in Brandon Marshall, a system under Tony Sparano that just works, an above average defense and a solid running game, this team will be as good as the other two in the division, and are certainly the most well rounded. They have every bit the chance the Jets and Patriots do of winning.
And well, the Bills.... they might just be the worst team in football this year. Better luck next year, and good luck in the draft!
Overall, I think this division comes down to the last week of the season, and eventually might even come down to some crazy tie-break scenarios, with the Jets taking it in the end:
New York Jets 10-6
New England Patriots 9-7
Miami Dolphins 9-7
Buffalo Bills 2-14
AFC North
Lots of interesting topics in this division, not the least of which being the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers. Even with his suspension reduced from 6 games to 4, it is still a major blow. On top of that, 3 of the 4 games he will miss are going to be very tough. Despite that opening stretch, I still think this team has enough to stay afloat and fight for a playoff spot down the final stretch.
Another off-season storyline out of the AFC North comes from Cincinnati: the acquisition of T.O. Well, I'm here to tell you that this is going to be a disaster. Not only because he is a major distraction, but mainly, because he has severely diminished skills. He is just too old at this point to have any kind of real impact on this team. That means it remains a running football team, and can Cedric Benson put up numbers like he did last year? I highly doubt it. He is bound to break down, along with the rest of the Bengals.
The Baltimore Ravens are the talk of the offseason, with their acquisition of Anquan Boldin, emerging superstar Joe Flacco now has a true number one to throw to, to go along with sure-handed Derrick Mason and ex-Bengal T.J. Houshmandzadeh, many have this team taking the leap to the next level, and count me among them. I love this team (and if you looked at any of my fantasy teams, you'd know how much). They are a complete football team. They really don't have a weakness. Ray Rice is elite already, and we will all be saying that about Flacco at season's end. This could be the best team in football, and I think they are the team to beat in the AFC.
And then there are the Cleveland Browns... like the Bills in the East, someone has to finish last. Jake Delhomme is NOT the answer, Cleveland fans.
Baltimore Ravens 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Cleveland Browns 3-13
AFC West
Oh the AFC West. I made the bold statement last season that if the Chargers didn't win the division, I would never make another NFL prediction again. And despite Denver jumping out to a 6-0 start, they still won. And, with the weaknesses all around the division, the Chargers should take the division again, but I'm not willing to make that bold statement again this year. There are some definite question marks with the San Diego team, but I'm not too worried. The division is still the weakest in the AFC, and the schedule is friendly. Even without Vincent Jackson, with Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Legadu Nanee (just a great name!) I still think Phillip Rivers will have plenty of weapons to spread the ball around to. He is still an elite talent, he will find the open man. On top of that, I love the draft pick of Ryan Mathews. This kid is the real deal, and you will see why right away, as he is slated to get the bulk of this year's carries for the Chargers. He is going to make Charger fans forget about the loss of the once great LT very soon.
As for the other teams in the division, they have graduated, from flaming turds, to mediocrity. I think the Chiefs will finish second in the division. They need to give Jamaal Charles the rock, because this kid is a stud. Forget about Thomas Jones, you can not continue to keep Charles down. With a full workload he could be a top 5 back. Matt Cassel has paired with old Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weiss seems like a good fit, at least on paper, and I think he will have a bounce back year in year two under this system. The defense remains questionable, but they will be better.
I think Denver remains about the same as last year. There are just too many questions left unanswered. Will Moreno bounce back from injury? Can Orton lead a team to a winning season? How will the team use Tim Tebow? Can they recover from last year's collapse. I think they have a good future ahead, but its just not in the cards this season for them.
The Oakland Raiders seem to be a dark horse pick to win some games this season now that JeMarcus Russell is out at quarterback, but my question is, "What did Jason Campbell ever win in Washington?" So yes, it is an upgrade, and they will get a couple extra wins, but they are not taking a leap out of the bottom of this division. They still have a long way to go. They need Michael Bush to get over his thumb injury fast, because he is the class of this team, and Darren McFadden is just terrible.
San Diego Chargers 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Denver Broncos 7-9
Oakland Raiders 4-12
AFC South
The division that houses my Tennessee Titans also houses the defending AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts. If you want to win the AFC, it runs through them, and it will be no easy task. Peyton Manning isn't getting worse any time soon, and he just has all new toys to play with in WRs Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, the return of Anthony Gonzalez, and oh yeah, two guys named Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. They couldn't run last year, but they didn't have to (well, not until the Super Bowl) and they will win games the same way this year. Expect another successful season from them, but one that may just be a disappointment considering...
The Titans are going to win the division. It will be close. It will be a battle. It will come down to the final game of the season. It will come down to a tiebreak of head to head matchups, and I believe the Titans take that tiebreak by beating the Colts TWICE. Yes, I am biased. But yes, this can definitely happen. There is a reason Chris Johnson is the Geezer's Gridiron poster boy, he is going to get 2500 yards this season. Barring injury, he is going to set records. The man is like lightning, and there is no catching him when he breaks away. I know the common theme is to state that the NFL is a passing game, and it is, but it is so because there are not very many Chris Johnson's in the league. Good luck stopping him. With a full season of Vince Young (who led this team to an 8-2 record last year, he is just a WINNER) along with a better defense, and a throwing game that will take a leap forward, this team is going to win the division and de-thrown the defending champs.
As for the rest of the division, I think the Texans are a clear third. High powered offense with a decent defense, but a difficult schedule makes for another nice 9-7 season. They haven't shown me any reason to believe they can make it to the playoffs, and I'm done believing that they can do it. Prove it, then I'll bite, Houston.
And the Jaguars are the distant fourth choice, and I think they will struggle and ultimately wind up finishing with another underwhelming season. Beyond MJD, this team doesn't have much of an offense, and the defense isn't all that great either.
Tennessee Titans 13-3
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 9-7
Jacksonville 5-11
NFC East
The NFC East houses another sexy Super Bowl pick, the host of Super Bowl XLV themselves, the Dallas Cowboys. Again, its easy to see why. They are loaded on both sides of the ball. I think they will have a fantastic regular season, as they usually do. The questions come, once again, once they reach the post season. They managed to win a game last year, and I just don't know if they can go any further this year. Do I trust Tony Romo, no, not really, and the NFC is pretty well loaded at the top this year. I don't think they get to host their own home Super Bowl, but I do think they win the division.
Their biggest competition, I believe, will come from the Philadelphia Eagles. Now I don't think the Eagles will be great, but they could be a sleeper. It all comes down to the play of Kevin Kolb. I'm sure he will have some games which will make you go "wow" and some where he just completely blows, and that should make for a very interesting season. There is a lot of young offensive talent on this team, they just might be a year or two away before they rise back to the top of the NFC.
The other two teams, well you know I'm no fan of the Giants, and although I think they have a great passing attack, the running game is awful and the defense is over-rated. They proved last year that they couldn't beat good teams, and they didn't do anything to impress me to make themselves better. Another mediocre performance.
And as for the Redskins... well... yes, they added Donovan McNabb, but what good will that be? They have a bevy of old, washed up running backs, an old, borderline washed up QB, not a very good defense, a tough division and non-divisional schedule. They will have another lost season, good luck in the draft.
Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
New York Giants 7-9
Washington Redskins 5-11
NFC North
Remember last season, when I picked Green Bay to win it all? Yeah that didn't quite go as planned. Those pesky Minnesota Vikings got in the way, as well as the Arizona Cardinals (although that last play was a blatant facemask, but I digress). Well of those three teams, I believe only one is left standing this season, and it is the Green Bay Packers. They are just a complete football team, and healthy, they will be incredible again. Aaron Rodgers is ELITE in every sense of the word. They are only getting better with maturity and experience. They are going to dominate this division.
The team that gave them headaches last season is due for a huge fall. With the lack of Sidney Rice for half the season, an aging Brett Favre on a bad ankle that teams will be attacking all year and Percy Harvin dealing with migraine issues, they are not even a playoff team. I think Brett's streak of consecutive games started comes to an end this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he even gets knocked out of the season for good. Adrian Peterson can only carry an offense so far, and in a division with the Packers, they stand no chance.
As for the other two teams, I believe it will actually be a fight for third, rather than just penciling in the Lions for last again. Detroit is doing everything right to rebuild their team, and although I think they are at least 2 years away from competing, I think they are going to win some games this year. I love Stafford, love Jahvid Best, LOVE Calvin Johnson, and LOVE Ndamukong Suh. they are young, talented, and a couple of years away from being really good.
The Bears are this team that is just set up to perennially disappoint. They have Jay Cutler, the perennial disappointment quarterback. He is so much potential, but he has never been able to put it together. Matt Forte had a fantastic rookie year, then a MASSIVE disappointment in his second year (especially for fantasy purposes). The defense isn't what it used to be. I don't know what to make of them. They could go 2-14, or they could go 8-8, but I do think that is about their ceiling.
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Minnesota Vikings 7-9
Chicago Bears 6-10
Detroit Lions 5-11
NFC West
Oooh the NFC West... or the NFC Worst as I often call it.... yeah I know, that was bad, but so is this division! However, they do always seem to have one team that does well. Seattle and Arizona went to Super Bowls fairly recently, and this year, there is another team that has that kind of potential. That team is the San Francisco 49ers.
I had no faith in them going into last year. I thought they had no pass game, no Quarterback, a mediocre defense, and that Frank Gore couldn't put an entire team on his back. Well, Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis made me a true BELIEVER in this team. Couple that with the easiest schedule in football, and this team is a shoe in for the playoffs, and could be an absolute challenge to any team in the playoffs. Expect a huge leap in the level of this team. And the defense is anything but mediocre. I fully admit that I was completely wrong about this team.
As for the rest of the division, good luck is all I have to say. The Cardinals are the two time defending champs of the division, but they are now without their MVP QB Kurt Warner who retired, and it is up to Derek Anderson to lead the way. Forgive me if I'm not shuttering in fear. No Anquan Boldin is another massive blow to this team, and if it weren't for a fairly easy schedule, the fall could be DRASTIC. Hell it still might be. I'm not a Beanie Believer, and with only one offensive star (Larry Fitzgerald), I just don't know how they are going to win football games.
And its not like things get much better the deeper we go into this division... they get worse. Seattle has done nothing to say that they will be better than last year, if anything they are trying to get young in a hurry, which generally means a big drop off in immediate wins. Its going to be a rough start to the Pete Carroll Era.
As for the Rams... I'm going to say they win one more game this year. Maybe by 2016 they will be a .500 team. A rookie QB that could be good in the future, but now just has no one to throw to and I'm definitely not yet a believer. A star running back that can't stay healthy. A swiss cheese defense. The league's worst team, for the second straight year.
San Francisco 49ers 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 5-11
Seattle Seahawks 4-12
St. Louis Rams 2-14
NFC South
Home of your defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, and how sweet that victory was for New Orleans! Now the pattern has it that one team that makes the Super Bowl always fails to make the playoffs the next year. It is like clockwork. Never fails. So you know I picked the Colts to get one of the AFC Wild Card spots, so does that mean I am picking the Saints to miss the playoffs? Of course not!!! This is a Saints team that bucks the trend! Come on, they ruined the New Orleans history of sucking, why go back to that now? Drew Brees is too good a quarterback for this team to not make the playoffs. Plain and simple. Just having him on your team assures a spot. They should rule the roost in the NFC South once again.
The next two teams in this division intrigue me. Atlanta and Carolina both have young QBs looking to make a leap, they both have OUTSTANDING running games, they both have a stud Wide Receiver and they both have solid defenses. They will both be successful this season, and I think they will be fighting for the final NFC playoff spot when its all said and done. Who do I like more? Atlanta, but only slightly.
And then there is Tampa Bay. A team that can't run the ball, can't throw the ball, and can't stop anyone. Why am I wasting my breath on this team again? they were bad last year, and they might be even worse this year. I don't trust Josh Freeman, and I doubt I ever will.
New Orleans 13-3
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 3-13
So there you have it, my NFL division by division breakdown! But now for the good stuff! The predictions sure to go wrong!
AFC Round 1
Byes: Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts over New York Jets
San Diego Chargers over Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC Round 1
Byes: Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints
San Fransisco 49ers over Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons
AFC Round 2
Tennessee Titans over San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts
NFC Round 2
Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys
San Fransisco 49ers over New Orleans Saints
AFC Championship
Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers over San Fransisco 49ers
And for your Super Bowl Champion.......
The Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know I picked them last year, and they let me down, but I am convinced that I was simply a year too early on them. It was going out on a bit of a limb last year, now its a "bandwagon" pick, but I have to stick with my guns. I love the Ravens almost as much, but I just don't think any team in football is as good in every aspect of the game as this Packers team. So for the second straight year, they are my pick.
So there you have it, my big, fat, Albert Haynesworth sized NFL preview and return to the blog. But before I go, one more thing.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5) over Minnesota Vikings
Get the year started on a good Gambling note folks! Hope you enjoyed my preview, and I hope to bring you plenty more where this came from. Good luck in week one, whether it be your team, your fantasy team, or your gambling habits! Until next time!
-Geezer
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