Sunday, January 23, 2011

Championship Round

I went 2-2 again last week, and lost one of my Super Bowl teams with the utter collapse of the Baltimore Ravens. At least I can still cling to the Packers...

Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO

And of course, I am going to pick them here. Aaron Rodgers is at the top of his game, perhaps at the top of the entire league, and the Bears CAN be passed on. The Packers are a better team, on both offense and on defense. The Bears will try and throw the kitchen sink at Rodgers with blitzes but I think the talent wins out here. Cutler on the other side is good for at least one interception, and Green Bay will capitalize. This game has to be extremely low scoring for Chicago to have a chance, and I just think Green Bay is playing so well right now that they will not be stopped. Don't forget how good that Green Bay secondary is and how difficult it will be for Chicago to get anything going through the air. They can hope that Forte goes off for a huge game, but its hard for me to see it, because Green Bay will surely be expecting this. I don't think the game stays all that close, the match-up problems are just too scary for Chicago.

New York Jets (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

Speaking of match-up problems, the Steelers are full of them! I don't see how they can score on this Jets team, who will be able to shut down their top wideouts man to man, quite like they did with the Patriots, daring them to beat them inside. Sure the Steelers may be able to get Mendenhall going, but that can only account for so much. With a deteriorated offensive line, The pass rush should give Roethlisberger fits, and if he can't get going, the steelers can't win. They are very even teams but the Jets have a little edge as they are healthier, peaking at the right time, extremely confident, and the Steelers don't have the secondary of the Jets, especially with Polamalu banged up as he has been for weeks. I see the Jets winning this one straight up.

So there you have it. I'm predicting a Jets/Packers Super Bowl. Frankly the Packers are my last remaining hope of anything good coming out of this football season, so here's to hoping Rodgers continues his steady ascent to the top of today's NFL.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Round Two

Well I went 2-2 for Round 1, but at least my two wins were the important ones. Gotta hope Baltimore and Green Bay pass tough tests today!

Game 1, Saturday 4:30 p.m. EST

Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH

These teams split the regular season, and its always a tough game when these two collide. Both games were decided by 3 points, so odds are this one will as well, based on their style of play. Baltimore was in control of the game Pittsburgh ended up winning until a late Joe Flacco fumble forced by Troy Palamalu ended their chances. I think Flacco comes back for vengeance and leads his team to the AFC Championship game. I think they have better overall balance and more talent.

Game 2, Saturday 8:00 p.m. EST

Green Bay (+2) over ATLANTA

I am riding the hot team here. I picked Green Bay at the start of the season and they are finally firing on all cylinders. I think Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Matt Ryan and the Packers defense is better. If they can lock down Roddy White and slow down Turner, the Packers can win this game, despite being on the road against a dominant home team in Atlanta. I trust Aaron Rodgers. It could go either way though, I just have to stubbornly stick with my gut. Either way, whoever wins is going to the Super Bowl.

Game 3, Sunday 1:00 p.m. EST

Seattle (+10)
over CHICAGO

I just don't think Chicago is worthy of getting 10 points in this game. Not after Seattle beat New Orleans, a better team than Chicago, last weekend. They shocked the world, and this one wouldn't be nearly as much of a shock. I like Chicago to win the game, but it will be a lot closer than this line indicates.

Game 4, Sunday 4:30 p.m.

New York Jets (+9)
over NEW ENGLAND

Again, I don't think the Jets will WIN, but I do think they will COVER the 9 points. They are going to get very physical with the Pats, and they have a lot to prove after th 45-3 beat down they took the last time these teams met. But I really expect them to play smarter, run the football, run the clock and limit the amount of possessions Brady gets. How successful they are will determine how close this game is, or even if they could pull off the upset. The line is just too high here.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Wild Card Weekend

We're finally here, playoff time! Lucky for me, I'm hitting my stride picking games (22-10 over the last two weeks, finishing with a record of 130-104-6). Unlucky for me, I didn't get the chance to bet on the games the past two weeks. Sigh, such is the life of a gambler. Have to play the playoff games though. And along with my picks for Wild Card Weekend, I'll tell you who I like to win the whole shebang.

as always, lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com
Home team in CAPS


Game 1, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, Saturday


New Orleans (-10.5) over SEATTLE

Seattle obviously has no business being in the playoffs. This is basically a bye week for the Saints. I ask myself what it would take for me to actually consider taking the Seahawks in this match-up? what would the spread have to be. To be honest, I think it would have to be 17.5. That's how much it would have to be. The Saints will crush this team. So I'm going to take this Saints team to cover the 10.5.

Game 2, 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Saturday

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New York Jets

In Peyton I trust. even with a banged up team, I just can't bet against him. He's a legend, and deservedly so. The Jets are hobbling into the playoffs and I just don't think they are good enough to beat the Colts. The Colts play fantastic at home in the playoffs and you don't bet against Manning in prime time. I'm taking the favorite.

Game 3, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Sunday

Baltimore (-3) over KANSAS CITY

I love this Baltimore team and I am not sold on the Chiefs, especially after week 17. If the Raiders can blow this Chiefs team out, what can the Ravens do? Cassel has no playoff experience, and neither do most of the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens however have experience and talent at all the right positions. They have done it before and are ready to make a serious title run. I've loved them all year and I'm not swaying now.

Game 4, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, Sunday

Green Bay (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

This is definitely the most intriguing game of the four, and also the most difficult to pick. Both teams have great quarterbacks, both teams have dynamic wide receivers, and they both can play a little defense. I'm taking Green Bay because of a couple reasons. I picked them to win the Super Bowl and I will ride them until they are eliminated, so thats first and foremost. But I'd also take Aaron Rodgers over Michael Vick at this stage. Vick can do a lot of things, but the Vikings showed a blueprint of how to beat him. I can't wait to watch this one, and I will be on the edge of my seat, but ultimately I think the Packers will prevail.

So that is how I see the first round breaking down. As for what will happen after that, here's what I see:

Round 2

NFC

New Orleans over Chicago
Green Bay over Atlanta

AFC
Baltimore over New England
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

NFC Championship
Green Bay over New Orleans

AFC Championship
Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL
Baltimore over Green Bay

So as you can see, I can't deviate from the two teams I picked to make the Super Bowl until they are officially knocked off. I still think they can both do it, are peaking at the right time, and have as good a shot as any team, so why not stick to my guns. However, I picked the Packers to win at the beginning of the year, and I have switched sides this time around, predicting that it is Baltimore that will come home with the crown this year. The injuries Green Bay has suffered are just to much to overcome a Ravens team that just has no holes on offense or defense.

Good luck everyone, and enjoy the playoffs!