Geezer's Gridiron

Championship Round

2011-01-23T10:01:00.000-08:00

I went 2-2 again last week, and lost one of my Super Bowl teams with the utter collapse of the Baltimore Ravens. At least I can still cling to the Packers...

Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO

And of course, I am going to pick them here. Aaron Rodgers is at the top of his game, perhaps at the top of the entire league, and the Bears CAN be passed on. The Packers are a better team, on both offense and on defense. The Bears will try and throw the kitchen sink at Rodgers with blitzes but I think the talent wins out here. Cutler on the other side is good for at least one interception, and Green Bay will capitalize. This game has to be extremely low scoring for Chicago to have a chance, and I just think Green Bay is playing so well right now that they will not be stopped. Don't forget how good that Green Bay secondary is and how difficult it will be for Chicago to get anything going through the air. They can hope that Forte goes off for a huge game, but its hard for me to see it, because Green Bay will surely be expecting this. I don't think the game stays all that close, the match-up problems are just too scary for Chicago.

New York Jets (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

Speaking of match-up problems, the Steelers are full of them! I don't see how they can score on this Jets team, who will be able to shut down their top wideouts man to man, quite like they did with the Patriots, daring them to beat them inside. Sure the Steelers may be able to get Mendenhall going, but that can only account for so much. With a deteriorated offensive line, The pass rush should give Roethlisberger fits, and if he can't get going, the steelers can't win. They are very even teams but the Jets have a little edge as they are healthier, peaking at the right time, extremely confident, and the Steelers don't have the secondary of the Jets, especially with Polamalu banged up as he has been for weeks. I see the Jets winning this one straight up.

So there you have it. I'm predicting a Jets/Packers Super Bowl. Frankly the Packers are my last remaining hope of anything good coming out of this football season, so here's to hoping Rodgers continues his steady ascent to the top of today's NFL.

Round Two

2011-01-15T07:31:00.000-08:00

Well I went 2-2 for Round 1, but at least my two wins were the important ones. Gotta hope Baltimore and Green Bay pass tough tests today!

Game 1, Saturday 4:30 p.m. EST

Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH

These teams split the regular season, and its always a tough game when these two collide. Both games were decided by 3 points, so odds are this one will as well, based on their style of play. Baltimore was in control of the game Pittsburgh ended up winning until a late Joe Flacco fumble forced by Troy Palamalu ended their chances. I think Flacco comes back for vengeance and leads his team to the AFC Championship game. I think they have better overall balance and more talent.

Game 2, Saturday 8:00 p.m. EST

Green Bay (+2) over ATLANTA

I am riding the hot team here. I picked Green Bay at the start of the season and they are finally firing on all cylinders. I think Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Matt Ryan and the Packers defense is better. If they can lock down Roddy White and slow down Turner, the Packers can win this game, despite being on the road against a dominant home team in Atlanta. I trust Aaron Rodgers. It could go either way though, I just have to stubbornly stick with my gut. Either way, whoever wins is going to the Super Bowl.

Game 3, Sunday 1:00 p.m. EST

Seattle (+10) over CHICAGO

I just don't think Chicago is worthy of getting 10 points in this game. Not after Seattle beat New Orleans, a better team than Chicago, last weekend. They shocked the world, and this one wouldn't be nearly as much of a shock. I like Chicago to win the game, but it will be a lot closer than this line indicates.

Game 4, Sunday 4:30 p.m.

New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND

Again, I don't think the Jets will WIN, but I do think they will COVER the 9 points. They are going to get very physical with the Pats, and they have a lot to prove after th 45-3 beat down they took the last time these teams met. But I really expect them to play smarter, run the football, run the clock and limit the amount of possessions Brady gets. How successful they are will determine how close this game is, or even if they could pull off the upset. The line is just too high here.

Wild Card Weekend

2011-01-06T16:43:00.000-08:00

We're finally here, playoff time! Lucky for me, I'm hitting my stride picking games (22-10 over the last two weeks, finishing with a record of 130-104-6). Unlucky for me, I didn't get the chance to bet on the games the past two weeks. Sigh, such is the life of a gambler. Have to play the playoff games though. And along with my picks for Wild Card Weekend, I'll tell you who I like to win the whole shebang.

as always, lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com
Home team in CAPS

Game 1, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, Saturday

New Orleans (-10.5) over SEATTLE

Seattle obviously has no business being in the playoffs. This is basically a bye week for the Saints. I ask myself what it would take for me to actually consider taking the Seahawks in this match-up? what would the spread have to be. To be honest, I think it would have to be 17.5. That's how much it would have to be. The Saints will crush this team. So I'm going to take this Saints team to cover the 10.5.

Game 2, 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Saturday

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New York Jets

In Peyton I trust. even with a banged up team, I just can't bet against him. He's a legend, and deservedly so. The Jets are hobbling into the playoffs and I just don't think they are good enough to beat the Colts. The Colts play fantastic at home in the playoffs and you don't bet against Manning in prime time. I'm taking the favorite.

Game 3, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Sunday

Baltimore (-3) over KANSAS CITY

I love this Baltimore team and I am not sold on the Chiefs, especially after week 17. If the Raiders can blow this Chiefs team out, what can the Ravens do? Cassel has no playoff experience, and neither do most of the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens however have experience and talent at all the right positions. They have done it before and are ready to make a serious title run. I've loved them all year and I'm not swaying now.

Game 4, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, Sunday

Green Bay (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

This is definitely the most intriguing game of the four, and also the most difficult to pick. Both teams have great quarterbacks, both teams have dynamic wide receivers, and they both can play a little defense. I'm taking Green Bay because of a couple reasons. I picked them to win the Super Bowl and I will ride them until they are eliminated, so thats first and foremost. But I'd also take Aaron Rodgers over Michael Vick at this stage. Vick can do a lot of things, but the Vikings showed a blueprint of how to beat him. I can't wait to watch this one, and I will be on the edge of my seat, but ultimately I think the Packers will prevail.

So that is how I see the first round breaking down. As for what will happen after that, here's what I see:

Round 2

NFC

New Orleans over Chicago
Green Bay over Atlanta

AFC
Baltimore over New England
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

NFC Championship
Green Bay over New Orleans

AFC Championship
Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL
Baltimore over Green Bay

So as you can see, I can't deviate from the two teams I picked to make the Super Bowl until they are officially knocked off. I still think they can both do it, are peaking at the right time, and have as good a shot as any team, so why not stick to my guns. However, I picked the Packers to win at the beginning of the year, and I have switched sides this time around, predicting that it is Baltimore that will come home with the crown this year. The injuries Green Bay has suffered are just to much to overcome a Ravens team that just has no holes on offense or defense.

Good luck everyone, and enjoy the playoffs!

The Fantasy Football Levels of Losing

2010-12-27T21:00:00.000-08:00

Anyone can say "I would have won 'if'" at the end of their given season. Sure, anyone can say that if they had done this, if they had done that, if something went my way then i would have won. But there is a different kind of stomach-punch type loss that happened this season for me. Not once, not twice, but in three separate leagues. There's losing, and then there's LOSING. This is my story.

League 1

This team started the season 0-4, so really, my team hadn't played a meaningless game since WEEK 4. Starting in Week 5, I won by .2 points, a win that I needed to make the playoffs. I survived by the skin of my teeth, my team did everything it needed to do, I spent my season agonizing over every move that would put me in position to make the playoffs and go on a run, and I finished the season with more points than anyone in the league. It came down to the last possible week for me to even make it in, as I finished off a win or go home game for both teams with a convincing victory that vaulted me to the 3 seed. The talent was there, better than everyone in the league outside MAYBE the one seed, but I did outscore him. And then, after all of that, My All-Pro, capable of scoring 40 any given week, dominating, first round pick, MVP candidate quarterback gets hurt and I am bounced, just like that. Aaron Rodgers had dragged this team kicking and screaming past every possible foe, and then, it was over. Just... like... that. I hung on ever second of every game for this team every Sunday, and I had such faith that this team was talented enough to win this league. Then that happened. It hurt. It hurt a lot more than a team that just goes 4-9 and misses the playoffs. This team had it and lost because of a stupid injury. It only makes it worse that I outscored both teams in the Semi's while I was stuck in the 5th place game, then outscored both teams in the finals while I didn't have a match. I win that one game, and this team wins. That's a stomach punch of epic proportions.

League 2

Now I wouldn't be doing this if that was even close to my only fantasy crushing loss this season. I was knocked out in the Playoffs of another league in which I had a 40 point lead, which I watched turn into a 30 point deficit, in horror, along with every Giants fan, as Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin single handedly ended my season with the greatest 8 minutes in fantasy history, costing me another money league finals trip. Nothing like a 70 point swing in 8 football minutes right?

League 3

But all of that pales in comparison to what happened to me Friday morning. Remember that Rashard Mendenhall stat correction? You know how you hear those nightmare stories of how something like that could cost someone a win? Well, bingo. Had won the matchup, was in the finals, the match had already started on Thursday night! I wake up Friday morning, sure enough, I have had 1.1 points removed (bonus 1 point at 100 yards, the yard was removed to drop his total from 100 to 99) and I saw myself in the third place game. After my championship match had already started. How's that for a "just my luck" situation.

Oh yeah, I would have won the Championship matchup.

So, please excuse me for hating fantasy football right now. I had four excellent teams this year, and three of them met their ends under extreme, gut-wrenching circumstances. I know I care too much about this, its way more than about money, its way more about how attached I get to building these teams from long before the draft until the final day of the season. I just hate losing three great teams under these circumstances. I don't even care if anyone reads this, I did it for me.

Week 16 Picks

2010-12-26T09:27:00.000-08:00

BUFFALO (+7.5) over New England

CHICAGO (-1) over New York Jets

Tennessee (+5) over KANSAS CITY

Washington (+7) over JACKSONVILLE

San Diego (-7.5) over CINCINNATI

DENVER (+2.5) over Houston

OAKLAND (+3) over Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Seattle

Minnesota (+14.5) over PHILADELPHIA

New Orleans (+2.5) over ATLANTA

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Detroit (+3.5) over MIAMI

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
ST. LOUIS (-2.5) over San Francisco

LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore (-3.5) over CLEVELAND

Thursday Night Pick

2010-12-23T18:01:00.000-08:00

I like Carolina (+14) over PITTSBURGH

Week 15 Picks

2010-12-19T08:28:00.000-08:00

Last week sucked, a ghastly 6-10. I really need a strong week to rebound this week. Let's see if I can go 11-5 or better.

Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Kansas City

St. Louis is good at home and Matt Cassel might not play. I'll take the favorite.

Jacksonville (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Why can't the Jags win this game? They won last time these two met, they are going to have the "nobody believes in us" fire, and the Colts are still banged up. The Jags will keep this very close.

Arizona (+2.5) over CAROLINA

Arizona whooped a slightly better team last week. And how can anyone pick the Panthers? How can they be favored? I'm sorry but Jimmy Clausen is just not an NFL quarterback.

Buffalo (+5) over MIAMI

I don't think Miami is 5 points better than the Bills at this stage. That's all there is to it.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia

I think the Giants have something to prove in a revenge game here. The defense should be able to put up a strong fight and win the game.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over Detroit

Tampa Bay is a team that knows how to beat bad teams, and while this should be fairly close, I think they can win by 6 or 7.

BALTIMORE (-2) over New Orleans

This is a game where I think the home field really matters. If it were being played in New Orleans, they would be favored and I would take them. But Baltimore at home in cold weather should show that they can beat anyone in the league.

Atlanta (-6.5) over SEATTLE

As an elite team, the Falcons need to blow out teams like the Seahawks. I'm a strong believer in this team, so I have to roll with them.

New York Jets (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH

This Jets team will be desperate for a win and there is no Troy Polamalu. I think that is enough for them to at the very least keep it within a field goal.

OAKLAND (-7.5) over Denver

Tim Tebow is not ready to lead an NFL team to a win, at least that's my opinion. And Denver was simply awful last week. I don't see how they get much better against a better Oakland team on the road.

Green Bay (+14) over NEW ENGLAND

I don't think there is a chance for Green Bay to win the game, but 2 touchdowns is a lot of points to lay to anyone. I just don't think the Pats are two TDs better than the Pack, even with Matt Flynn at QB.

Chicago (-8) over MINNESOTA

This one is all about the QB situation for Minnesota. Who is Joe Webb, where did he come from, and how is he going to have a prayer of keeping his team competitive against a good Bears team looking to bounce back from a beatdown? I can't see it.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Cleveland (PK) over CINCINNATI

Picking against the Bengals has been good all year, roll with it.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

DALLAS (-9) over Washington

Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Houston (+1.5) over TENNESSEE

There is NO reason that the Titans should be favored here. They really can not play without Vince Young. The losing streak continues, and Jeff Fisher starts getting his resume ready.

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 108-94-6
Lock Picks: 21-19

Back to business... Week 14 Picks

2010-12-10T21:19:00.000-08:00

I hope you all enjoyed my little article on the Carl Crawford deal. But now, its back to football. Stupid Titans and their last play, last second, COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS touchdown cost me a betting win last night. They couldn't depress me more right now. Anyway, rant over, on with the picks.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Oakland

Every gambling stat points to the Jaguars in this one. Oakland is on the road, traveling cross country to play a 1:00 game. Plus, Jacksonville is just better at this point.

Cincinnati (+9) over PITTSBURGH

I never pick the Bengals, but this one could easily be a trap game for the Steelers, plus it should be low scoring and at least close. 9 points is way too high.

CHICAGO (+3) over New England

The Pats did put an other-worldly beat down on the Jets on Monday, but this is a hangover game, on a short week, in below 0 weather. I think the home team has a distinct advantage here.

Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO

This game is going to be the Peyton Hillis show all day long, and that should mean the Browns will win.

MINNESOTA (+3) over New York Giants

I liked the way the Vikings looked last week, but I really have no idea what will happen in this game. So I'll bet against Eli Manning.

Green Bay (-7) over DETROIT

The Lions have hit a bit of a stumbling block in their cover streak, and the Packers are going to be focused and desperate. Should be a breeze for Aaron Rodgers.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City

Desperation game for San Diego, and that doesn't bode well for the less talented Chiefs.

NEW ORLEANS (-10) over St. Louis

I like the Saints here because I think most people will take the points, but I think the Rams are awful on the road, and the Superdome will have Sam Bradford extremely rattled.

Seattle (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Two awful teams so I will take the points

NEW YORK JETS (-5) over Miami

The Jets simply MUST bounce back and win this game. I don't see any way they blow it, unless they are truly just a mediocre football team. I don't think they are, but we will find out on Sunday.

DALLAS (+3.5) over Philadelphia

the Cowboys have to be taken seriously since Garett took over the team. I think they can win this one.

Baltimore (-2.5) over HOUSTON

Because Baltimore is a vastly better team than Houston, and the game just shouldn't be close.

Second Runner-Up Lock of the Week

Atlanta (-9) over CAROLINA

Because whenever the best team in the league is playing the worst team in the league, you have to take the best team in the league, no matter how many points they are giving.

First Runner-Up Lock of the Week

Denver (-4.5) over ARIZONA

Wait, you mean John Skelton is the Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback? Say no more!

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay (-2) over WASHINGTON

LaGarett Blount is going to take this game by storm, and the Bucs should have no issues dismantling the awful Redskins, who seem to have quit on their season.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 102-84-6
Lock Picks: 20-17

Its a Very Merry Christmas in Red Sox Nation

2010-12-09T19:47:00.000-08:00

I'm taking time off from my usual football only column, and switching over to baseball, just for a moment. You see, I am a huge Red Sox fan, and this has been the best off-season of my short life. Very rarely do things go exactly how you want for your favorite teams. Just look at how the Titans have completely collapsed in what was a once promising season. So for this week, I am focusing my efforts on Carl Crawford, the player I have been wishing for all off-season, to end up in a Sox uniform. Because as of last night, he is officially being delivered, first class, to Boston.

Let me start by briefly discussing Boston's other tremendous acquisition, Adrian Gonzalez. I loved the move, obviously, to acquire Gonzalez and make him the first baseman of the present and future in Boston. He is a supreme talent, a true power threat, who will likely hit 45 home runs playing his home games in Fenway Park. Theo Epstein gave up a hell of a package of prospects to get him, but he will be worth it. However, it simply wouldn't have been enough to go into the 2011 season with Adrian as the team's only big addition. They needed to sign Crawford. I've been doing nothing but researching, debating, and preparing for the rest of this hot stove season, and it all came back to one thing: the Red Sox need to sign Carl Crawford, and sign him now.

Last night, I was given my Christmas gift (and well, so was Crawford, a gift of $142 million). I really couldn't be happier or more excited that the Sox front office made what I consider to be the perfect move for the future of the organization. Why is signing Crawford so great you ask? Isn't it a little crazy to pay a player who isn't a power bat $20 million a season? And what about the Sox getting a little too left-handed for their own good? None of these things concern me, and I'll tell you why.

The Red Sox had very few holes in their lineup prior to the signing of Crawford. The fact that they let Victor Martinez walk to the Detroit Tigers tells us that they were okay with having a lesser offensive catcher in the young Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I'll readily admit that I was upset by this, as they had a potent bat in a position where most people do not, but Theo is enamored with this kid, and I'd like to see what he can do. Obviously they had their reasons not to give Victor the money he was looking for.

So that is hole number one, but its also a hole for just about every team in the league, which makes it less of a big deal. Now certainly, the bullpen needs work, and that will come later, for a lot cheaper dollars and on a one or two year basis. Middle relief isn't something teams generally shell out big bucks for, and I don't expect the Red Sox to start now. So really, the Sox had one and only one spot remaining in their lineup that you could argue that there was an opening, and a legitimate need, for a dramatic improvement in talent: left field. The exact position of the best free agent position player on the market, Carl Crawford. What are the Red Sox to do in this scenario? Who is the best option for the Red Sox at the left field position? Let's break down their options:

Option A) Roll with what you already have. Mike Cameron, the 38 year old outfielder who was never healthy last year and should be a fourth outfielder at best. Or young, budding outfielder Ryan Kalish, who could certainly benefit from another year in AAA, and would only be a short term solution because in all likelihood, he is the right fielder on this team once J.D. Drew's contract runs out after this year.

Option B) Sign a lesser free agent outfielder. Who was out there if you decide you don't want to extend a huge contract for this season? Couldn't be Jayson Werth, the Nationals already snatched him up with a ridiculous 7 year, 126 million dollar deal. Magglio Ordonez was talked about. He will be 37 next year, is coming off a year in which he managed to hit 12 home runs and drive in 59 runs. He has been in decline for a few years now, and has health problems. How much better is he than Cameron? what about old friend-turned-enemy Johnny Damon? Well he is 36, and already turned down a trade to go back to Boston last year. I just don't see how bringing him back in makes the team any better. And guess what? These are the best names on the outfield market in the winter of 2010!

Option C) Why not make a trade for an outfielder? Well there were a couple names talked about in potential trades, but of course, that would mean giving up assets. Carlos Beltran's name was out there, but at $18 million, and coming off two injury riddled seasons, how much more of a risk could there be? I was a little more open to the option of Josh Willingham from Washington, but he is also going to be 32 and a free agent next year, so you'd likely be giving up prospects for a one year rental, and I'm never a fan of that.

Option D) Couldn't you just wait til next year and try and find a left fielder in next year's class? Let's take a look at what our options would have been had the Sox taken this course of action:

Bobby Abreu LAA *
Jose Bautista TOR
Carlos Beltran NYM
Milton Bradley SEA
Mike Cameron BOS
Ronny Cedeno PIT
Ryan Church PIT
Jack Cust OAK
David DeJesus KC
Matt Diaz ATL
J.D. Drew BOS
Jeff Francoeur TEX
Jonny Gomes CIN
Gabe Gross OAK
Carlos Guillen DET
Corey Hart MIL
Raul Ibanez PHI
Conor Jackson ARZ
Ryan Ludwick SD
Nate McLouth ATL *
Juan Pierre CWS
Juan Rivera LAA
Cody Ross SF
Grady Sizemore CLE *
Nick Swisher NYY *
Josh Willingham WAS

On this list include both Beltran and Willingham, like I mentioned before, more rental than long term fix. Any player with an asterisk by their name means that the player's team holds an option on them, so that potentially eliminates Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore and Nick Swisher, 3 of the very few names that have any value at all on this list. So what are we left with? A group of "also rans" and fourth outfielders, and one guy who could be a stud, or a dud this season, named Corey Hart. But if Hart repeats his numbers from last season, someone would be throwing a $100+ million dollar deal at him next year, as by far the best outfielder on the market. Is this really a smart option for the Red Sox? Who would you rather have at $100+ million, Corey Hart or Carl Crawford?

No. Of course its not smart. The only smart move the Red Sox could make would be...

Option E) Sign Carl Crawford, the best free agent position player available, who happens to play the exact position of your biggest need.

And that is precisely what the Red Sox did. They filled a gigantic hole, and they fill it for the next 7 years. Getting back to the question of money. Is $142 million excessive for a player like Crawford, whose career high in home runs is 19? No, its really not. Its what the market has dictated, especially following the Werth deal. Crawford is a better player, so he had to get at least the same length, and more money. If the Red Sox wanted the player, they had to pony up the money, and they needed to make the move now, before the Yankees got more involved than they already were. As I laid out, your future options at the position just aren't there. So if the Red Sox had to go out and overpay to fill a need, they could afford to do so, and that is exactly why I love the deal so much, because they can make this signing, and still remain within a budget very similar to the 168 million dollars they paid out in 2010, which is precisely why all the Yankee fans out there that are making comments of "Congratulations on becoming exactly what you always said you hated" are way off base. Let me break it down for you:

Coming off the books in 2010:
Mike Lowell- $12.5 million
Adrian Beltre- $8 million
Victor Martinez- $7.7 million
Julio Lugo- $9 million

Just that alone accounts for a 37.2 million dollar clearing of salary. Now of course, these are not the only salaries changing. John Lackey's contract is front loaded, and will make 3 million less than last year. Several players have escalating salaries, like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis, adding a couple million here and there, plus arbitration eligible raises. I'll save you all of the gory details and tell you this: the final tally when all is said and done, including Beckett and Varitek's new contracts, Ortiz' option, the numerous smaller contracts that are no longer on the team, and the 6 million owed to Adrian Gonzalez this year, turns out to be nearly 30 million dollars coming off the books this season. That's more than enough to sign Crawford for 20 million, and even have 10 million left over to fill out the 40-man roster and sign a couple of relief pitchers! Even if they manage to jump up a couple extra million filling out the roster, its highly unlikely that they will break the $175 million threshold. Whereas if the Yankees make a huge signing with Cliff Lee, and they are expected to, that combined with the return of Andy Petitte and filling out their roster will give them a minimum of 220 million dollar budget, a good 45-50 million dollars more than that of the Red Sox. This is where the two teams differ. The Red Sox run their books as smart businessmen, knowing when they have money to spend and how to stay within budget. The Yankees run their business as a group with bottomless pockets, handing out ridiculous and borderline irresponsible contracts at any cost to win the World Series right now, future be damned. Which is why the Red Sox will never spend on the level of the Yankees, and why the Yankees budget will always continue to rise every year that they are in existence. They will never be on equal footing.

Now of course, Adrian Gonzalez is not going to be a 6 million dollar player for long. He is probably going to get a massive contract, lets say about $22 million/year after the season opens (as the Red Sox are smart, they will not announce the contract until after opening day, and will not have to factor in the contract extension to this year's luxury tax.) So this number would put the Red Sox way over their 2010 number of $168 million right? No, of course not. The Red Sox have even more money coming off the books next season. Here's a look at the contracts coming off the books at the end of 2011:

J.D. Drew- $14 million
David Ortiz- $12.5 million
Jonathan Papelbon- $10+ million
Mike Cameron- $7.75 million
Marco Scutaro- $4 million

That's $48 million, a truly staggering number. Factoring in the 16 million dollar raise that Gonzalez is likely to get, you are still left with 32 million dollars to play with. And here's the key: three of the players that you are losing here, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon and Marco Scutaro, are being replaced by players from the Red Sox own minor league system, at very cheap dollars. Probably a total of $4-6 million combined, in Daniel Bard, Ryan Kalish and Jose Iglesias. So you are looking at 26-28 million additional dollars to fill out a roster, find a right handed DH and a new 4th outfielder, along with whats likely to be another bullpen arm or two. Sound reasonable? I thought so too.

So really, the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez merely come at the perfect time for this organization. Epstein was killed when he called 2010 a "bridge year," but that is precisely what it was. A bridge to 2011 and beyond. To a time where the Red Sox have enough money coming off their books where they can spend 42 million dollars combined per year on their new acquisitions, and still somehow manage to lighten the payroll in the process. Or at worst, keep it the same.

The Red Sox know how valuable Crawford will be to their team in the next seven years. Manager Terry Francona has already called him a "game-changer." He is a true superstar, and they just don't come around that often. The Red Sox managed to get two of them this off season, which obviously leads to the Yankee comparisons, and so be it. But its funny to think that come 2012, the Red Sox will have a lineup with a very home grown feel:

C Jarrod Slatalamacchia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Jose Iglesias
3B Kevin Youkilis
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Ryan Kalish
LF Carl Crawford
DH ?

How many of these players did the Red Sox "buy" in their quest for the World Series? One: Carl Crawford. The rest either came up through the Red Sox system, or were acquired in a trade for prospects of their system. Not to mention the likes of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, or Daniel Bard, the three most important pitchers on this team. No, this lineup hasn't been bought, its been developed and planned, with the utmost detail and craftsmanship of a brilliant general manager. Carl Crawford just happened to be the perfect piece to acquire at the perfect time, to add to a team of players that are a testament to the development of the Red Sox farm system. Sometimes, you have to strike while you still can, the Yankees do this every year, sometime multiple times a year. The Red Sox waited patiently, and now it was their time. Carl Crawford was their answer. And it is a very merry Christmas indeed, for Red Sox nation. April can't get here soon enough.

Thursday Night Pick

2010-12-09T07:23:00.000-08:00

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
The Titans are a mess and Indy should bounce back strong in this game.

Week 13 Picks

2010-12-05T07:59:00.000-08:00

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of Yahoo.com

DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago

San Francisco (+9.5) over GREEN BAY

Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE

KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Denver

Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO

Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

St. Louis (-3) over ARIZONA

Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY

BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI

LOCK OF THE WEEK

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 92-78-6
Lock Picks: 18-16-2

Thursday Night Pick

2010-12-02T19:00:00.001-08:00

PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Houston

Houston's defense is just terrible enough to allow me to lay the points here.

Week 12 Picks

2010-11-28T09:13:00.000-08:00

No commentary today, long week of family and friends. Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving! But its not too late to get your picks in, so here we go!

Minnesota (-2) over WASHINGTON

CLEVELAND (-8.5) over Carolina

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Tampa Bay

Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO

Green Bay (+1.5) over ATLANTA

San Diego (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS

OAKLAND (-3) over Miami

Kansas City (-2.5) over SEATTLE

St. Louis (+3.5) over DENVER

San Francisco (PK) over ARIZONA

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

HOUSTON (-5.5) over TENNESSEE

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Jacksonville (+7.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh (-6) over BUFFALO

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 84-70
Lock Picks: 16-15-2

Week 12 Power Rankings

2010-11-24T18:50:00.000-08:00

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We will get to my picks for the three games later on, but first, I owe you fine folks some power rankings! Sit back, relax, watch football, eat turkey and read through the list. Enjoy!

The Elite

1. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons have been the NFC's best team all year, and now, it appears as if they are the best team in all of football. Winners of four straight, they rise to the top for the first time all season. Will they be able to stay there?

2.Baltimore Ravens- You know by now what the Ravens have to offer. They have some of the best skill players in all of football, their defense is weak by their standards, but still pretty good, and they know how to win games. Still like them to come out of the AFC.

3. New York Jets- Just when you think you have the Jets on the ropes, they come firing right back and win. That is a very dangerous sign for the rest of the AFC. A talented team that has a swagger where they think even if they get down they are never out? Scary.

4. Green Bay Packers- I picked them (again) to win the Super Bowl, and despite the losses of Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley for the season, they are finally starting to look like an elite team. I thought the injuries would be a bit too much to overcome, but as long as one man doesn't go down, they are going to be right in the hunt for the crown. Aaron Rodgers.

5. New England Patriots- I have been a doubter of this team for a while, considering how young and unspectacular their defense is, but they just keep beating whoever you put in front of them. I have no choice but to include them amongst the NFL's Elite, after beating the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers- I still have to put the Steelers in here because of their defense, which is the best in the game. They have a great QB that can beat anyone and has proven it, but they have also shown some vulnerability against the league's better teams. Six is a great spot for the Steelers.

The Contenders

7. Philadelphia Eagles- After what they did to the Redskins, they sure looked like an elite team... but then they played a sub-par game against the Giants and barely escaped with the win, so for now, they simply lead the pack of contenders, but that's not all that bad!

8. Indianapolis Colts- They were able to give the Pats a late scare, but couldn't pull the same feat from 2009 in 2010. Can never go against Peyton Manning winning the AFC South, and I should know this by now. Silly to think this team won't be causing problems for someone in the playoffs.

9. San Diego Chargers- This is an Elite team just waiting to break out. The Chargers haven't lost a December game since 2005, when Drew Brees was still their quarterback. They are about to hit their stride, and dominate the second half of the season, led by Phillip Rivers and his MVP quest.

10. New Orleans Saints- Still hyper-talented, and starting to get healthy. The scary thing is, they have a better defense than last year. I wouldn't want to play Drew Brees in a playoff game, that's for sure. Especially if you have to do it at the Superdome.

11. Chicago Bears- Winners of three straight, Can't keep them out of the contending ranks. I don't see how they don't end up fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC, and I think they get one (with New Orleans grabbing the other).

12. Kansas City Chiefs- Once again, I think that once we get to the Chiefs, its about that time when we get out of the contending ranks.

The Mediocre

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- They just won't... go... AWAY. Josh Freeman is legit. I apologize to the Freeman family for ever doubting him. They win games. I don't know how they do it but they do. I think they just miss the playoffs this season, but with Freeman at the helm, I think they could come back with a vengeance next season.

14. New York Giants- Ha! These past two weeks have exposed the Giants for the frauds they are! Watch them miss the playoffs. Watch!

15. Oakland Raiders- The very definition of mediocre. They will play well one week, pull off a win, then get handled easily by a clearly better team the next.

16. Tennessee Titans- Sigh.... I was so ready for my team to make a run. To take over the top rank of the NFL. TO finally start capitalizing on all of the potential.... and then Vince Young gets hurt, pissed off, and throws his pads into the stands. Then Jeff Fisher gets pissed off and says he is no longer the quarterback. Then VY is put on IR. Have you ever seen a team with so much potential fall apart this fast? I haven't. The problem is, this team is best when Vince is healthy and playing. Sure, he has attitude problems, but he is a damn good football player and his record proves it. He knows how to win. I have all the respect for Fisher as a coach, but if I had to choose between coach and quarterback, I side with Vince. I know the kind of results this team has with him in the lineup, and those when he isn't. I shutter to think about the Rusty Smith era. This sucks.

17. Cleveland Browns- And the Browns keep climbing. This team is legitimately talented enough to compete with anyone. I praised the Lions last time, this week, that same type of praise goes to Cleveland. They play a ton of tight games and pull off the occasional win. They are headed quickly in the right direction.

18. Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys are showing signs of the team that everyone thought they would be going into the season. Sure it was against the Giants and Lions, two mediocre teams, but still, the Jason Garrett era has been a success so far. The Cowboys should have taken my advice and fired Wade Phillips the minute after they lost to the pitiful Redskins in week one.

19. Detroit Lions- I mentioned the Lions in each of the last two paragraphs, and look, here they are! They are easily the best 2-8 team I have ever seen. All this means is that they will get another chance to nail another high draft pick (like they appear to have done with Suh, Stafford and Best). They play every team close (bar the Cowboy game) and they should have at least 4-5 wins. They would be winning the NFC West, if they were lucky enough to be put in that crap division.

20. Houston Texans- I think we all know the story with this team by now. Uber-talented, no winner's edge. They might need to just blow the whole thing up and start from scratch, again.

21. Miami Dolphins- I'm pretty sure Miami is the most boring team in the NFL. They don't really do anything particularly well. They are on their third mediocre QB of the season. They are .500. Can anyone actually care one way or another about Miami? I know I can't.

22. Seattle Seahawks- WE finally get our first NFC West team... at spot number 22! One of these teams needs to make the playoffs, and I really hope it prompts the NFL to think about a seeded playoff, because there is no way the Seahawks deserve the playoff spot they currently sit in.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars- Remember when I said I couldn't figure out how this team was 4-4? Well now they are 6-4... If the Miami Dolphins are the league's most boring team, the Jags are definitely the most puzzling.

24. Washington Redskins- Followed closely by the Washington Redskins. Who knows what to make of this mediocre team?

25. St. Louis Rams- They can'[t win on the road, they are bad in their own horrible division, they are 4-6, but for some reason I think people think they might be good. I think its a result of them being so awful last year and then finding some early improvement this season, but they rest at the very bottom of the mediocre for me, an improvement, but nothing to be proud of.

The Garbage

26. Denver Broncos- They got blown out by a pretty damn good team in San Diego, so I won't penalize them too much for that. Still, they aren't very good whatsoever.

27. Minnesota Vikings- They finally fired Brad Childress, which is something that should have happened a long time ago. Now, maybe if they sit their quarterback, they might actually have something here! Wait, its already week 12? Oh....

28. San Francisco 49ers- Sigh... something tells me this team won't be going 9-7. Is Mike Singletary the third coach that Green Bay gets fired? We'll find out next week! Wouldn't that be something?

29. Buffalo Bills- Whoa Ho! The Buffalo Bills are on a winning streak! Who needs Andrew Luck when you've got Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging the ball! And I'm only half kidding...

30. Cincinnati Bengals- Couldn't feel any more vindicated in saying that this team was going to take a huge step backward this season.

31. Arizona Cardinals- Make it five losses in a row for this absolutely atrocious football team. I can't even tell you who their starting quarterback is right now, because I don't hate myself enough to care about Arizona Cardinals football this year.

32. Carolina Panthers- I do, however, know who is the quarterback for the Panthers. His name is Brian St. Pierre. And that is why they are in last place.

And now, on to my Turkey Day picks!

DETROIT (+7) over New England

I'm pretty sure that I'm just going to pick Detroit every week. they are 8-2 against the spread, and the only time I didn't pick them, they blew out the Rams. I'm rolling with them, and the points.

New Orleans (-4) over DALLAS

I think this Dallas mini run ends here on Thanksgiving, when Drew Bress cuts up their mediocre defense.

NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Cincinnati

The Jets are awesome, and the Bengals suck. I don't care how big the line is, this should be a blowout.

Week 11 Picks

2010-11-20T19:25:00.000-08:00

Always good to be right in the Thursday night game. On with the rest of this week's picks.

Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Oakland (+7.5) over PITTSBURGH

Oakland is a legitimate threat and this line is just too high to ignore. No one should be giving more than a touchdown against Oakland. Congrats Raider fans.

NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over HOUSTON

Great defense beats great offense, especially when that great offense has a wounded QB.

Baltimore (-11.5) over CAROLINA

Nothing about this matchup indicates anything short of a blow out. Third string QB, third string RB, worst team in the league versus arguably its best. I'd take Baltimore even if the line was 17.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Washington

If the Eagles can embarrass the Skins like they did on Monday, so can the Titans.

Green Bay (-3.5) over MINNESOTA

Despite all the injuries, Green Bay is still playing good football and it is a true testament to the mighty Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota on the other hand, is left with old man Favre, and its just sad at this point. I don't think his last chance against his former team will end well for him.

Buffalo (+5) over CINCINNATI

Two bad teams, take the points. Very simple philosophy but it works often enough. Congrats on the win last week Buffalo!

Cleveland (+2) over JACKSONVILLE

I just like Cleveland as a better team. I don't trust the Jags, at all.

Arizona (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY

KC is sliding down the mediocrity avalanche and they are still getting 8 and a half. I'll take those points. They have proven to be nothing special the past few weeks, and that is a huge number.

NEW ORLEANS (-12) over Seattle

Again, a game with a huge number, but I think the Saints are playing well and the Hawks aren't at all (unless they are playing a division game in the horrible NFC West.) This has blowout written all over it.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Tampa Bay

Another team playing good football against one who has overachieved a bit. I happen to like this Troy Smith era in San Fran, and maybe, just maybe, they can still win their division. A sad, sad statement, but its entirely possible for them to be a game out after this week.

NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Indianapolis

Indy is banged up, can't run the ball, can't stop the run, and basically has no one other than Peyton Manning..... BUT since they do have Manning, that means they could definitely pull this off. Its an absolute gambling stay away, but there is too much going in New England's favor here, and they just don't lose regular season games at home.

Denver (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO

If I'm wrong, its ok, because I will just feel vindicated that this San Diego team is that good, and my 12-1 Super Bowl bet on them was a good investment. I like San Diego to win, but a closer game than the line suggests.

Second Runner-up Lock of the Week

Detroit (+6.5) over DALLAS

So the Cowboys beat an overrated Giants team and they start getting treated like they are good? Please! Detroit is always a good bet to take the points, why stray from that now?

First Runner-up Lock of the Week

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over New York Giants

Did you see the Monday night game???? Vick was like the bionic man out there! The Giants are going to have their hands full with him, considering they couldn't even handle Jon Kitna. Unless Vick gets hurt, I think the Eagles roll here.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Atlanta (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS

I am obviously a firm believer in this Atlanta team, and they will be well rested and ready to go against a St. Louis team that has been a bit of an overachiever this season. Atlanta shuts them up in a hurry.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 77-61-6
Lock Picks: 14-14-2

Thursday Night Pick

2010-11-17T19:11:00.000-08:00

Chicago (+1) over MIAMI

I don't trust Tyler Thigpin to beat even a mediocre Bears team. It could go either way, but I like the more experienced quarterback.

Week 10 Picks!

2010-11-12T20:01:00.000-08:00

Well, I start out this week 0-1 after the Ravens blew a perfect opportunity to cement their status as the number one team in football, but lets see if I can bounce back from that to put together my third solid week in a row.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Tennessee (-1.5) over MIAMI

Chad Pennington does not scare me. Kerry Collins does, but only a little. I'm still taking the Titans though.

CHICAGO (+1) over Minnesota

Neither team is good, and Chicago is home, plus they are slight underdogs, so I'll gladly pick against Brett Favre.

New York Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND

I don't think Cleveland is good enough to knock off two superior teams in a row. And the Jets will not overlook them the way the Patriots did.

TAMPA BAY (-7) over Carolina

Carolina is just so bad that any team that is even mediocre should blow them out.

Kansas City (-1.5) over DENVER

I am not confident in this, but I just think Denver is a really bad football team, so KC should pull it off, even on the road in Denver.

St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

I don't get this line, but I'll have no problem betting against the Niners in this one. And I will STILL be wrong.

ARIZONA (-3.5) over SEATTLE

What a garbage football game. Charlie Whitehurst vs. Max Hall. Fans should get a refund. Probably the worst game we've had all season.

Dallas (+14) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I just don't feel comfortable picking the Giants as 14 point favorites over anyone, even this pitiful Dallas team. The teams know each other well enough that it should be closer than that.

New England (+5) over PITTSBURGH

I think Pittsburgh will win, but its certainly not inconceivable that the Pats pull it off, and it should be closer than 5. Tom Brady always comes back strong after a loss, and I see it here again, even if I think they come up just short.

Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON

I don't feel comfortable picking Washington against a contender unless they are getting a TD+. That is not the case here.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati

So the Bengals are finally getting a touchdown+ from Vegas. Nope, still not enough for me to take them over Indy.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Detroit (+3) over BUFFALO

How is Detroit a three point dog to a team that hasn't won a game? Its almost too obvious, but I'm taking the Lions to improve to 8-1 against the spread on the season.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Houston (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville is a pitiful team. This game should not even be close, and Houston is getting points?!?!? I'm puzzled.

Last Week: 9-3-1
Overall: 69-55-6
Lock Picks: 13-12-2

Week 10 Power Rankings

2010-11-11T15:46:00.001-08:00

The Elite

1. Baltimore Ravens- Nothing has swayed me from believing they are the league's best team. They appear to finally be playing up to their full potential.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers- The top two teams both reside in the same division! Crazy, but true. No denying how great Pittsburgh has been all season, these guys just wear you down with their physical, smashmouth play.

3. Tennessee Titans- You heard me. Highest scoring team in the league. Second best point differential. Blew out the Giants. And they just ADDED a superstar receiver to stretch the field and open up the field for Chris Johnson. Can you say elite?

4. Atlanta Falcons- They keep proving week in and week out to be the best in the NFC, and I think they can stand up to the AFC teams as well. The only team I can say that about, which is why they jump to elite status.

5. New York Jets- They fall a few spots after the scare from the Lions, but they remain one of the few Elite teams in this year's NFL.

The Contenders

6. Green Bay Packers- Even as injured as they are, they continue to win games. They obliterated the Cowboys last week, and cost Wade Phillips his job. They are very close to Elite, but just not quite there yet.

7. Indianapolis Colts- The Eagles had two weeks to prepare and home field advantage, and the Colts still almost beat them. Peyton Manning is simply too damn good. Isn't there another league he can play in, like a God league or something? They keep losing weapons and he still keeps them competitive week in and week out. It will be tough to make the playoffs in the AFC this year, but I wouldn't bet against Peyton single handedly dragging this team in.

8. New England Patriots- Yes, they fell into the classic trap game against Cleveland, so I'm not going to hold that against them too much. They are still pretty damn good, but the upcoming schedule does not get friendlier for this team. They might lose three in a row entering a better than you think Lions team on Thanksgiving. We'll see how they handle it.

9. New Orleans Saints- No, they aren't last year's Saints, but they are certainly still a contender in the weak NFC. They can still beat just about anyone on any given Sunday.

10. San Diego Chargers- Don't look now, but the Chargers have won two in a row, have a bye this week, will be getting Vincent Jackson back soon after, and should be getting several weapons healthy. Did I just place a bet on their Super Bowl odds at 12-1? You bet I did.

11. New York Giants- Beating Charlie Whitehurst is not something to brag about. I can't WAIT to bet against this team in the playoffs. Just saying, they are overrated and will continue to be so with their pillow soft schedule.

12. Philadelphia Eagles- They did impress against the Colts, and they have a lot of weapons on offense. If Vick can continue to provide the team with a spark and stay on the field, they will win the NFC East, and might even win a playoff game.

13. Kansas City Chiefs- The wheels are definitely starting to come off here... but they do still sit on top of the AFC West, for now... we need to get out of the Contenders and move on...

The Mediocre

14. Oakland Raiders- The team that showed that the Chiefs are starting to unravel, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are any good either. They shouldn't have won the game, but they did. This is the perfect spot for them, as they aren't bad anymore, but there is no way they contend for a playoff spot this year.

15. Chicago Bears- Yup, we really are at the mediocre when we hit chicago. everything about this team is just meh.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Josh Freeman is better than I ever gave him credit for, and there might be something here in the future, but they aren't getting there this season.

17. Detroit Lions- Yes, they are 2-6, but this team is a lot better than their record suggests. If they didn't lose their starting QB late in the game against the Jets, they probably knock off an elite team. They have lost a lot of tight games, as evidenced by the fact that they are 7-1 against the spread. I like the way they are heading.

18. Houston Texans- another season, same story for the Texans, and their fans. Lots of promise, but they just can't get over the hump.

19. Miami Dolphins- Making the change to Chad Pennington just screams of desperation for this once promising squad.

20. St. Louis Rams- Tough to guage whether or not they are for real, but hey, maybe, just maybe, they pull off the division and get obliterated in the playoffs.

21. Cleveland Browns- Colt McCoy wins football games! I can't wait to see how his career develops and see just how many teams end up kicking themselves for passing on him.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Brett Favre's team is now bordering on garbage level. It took them to overtime to beat the Cardinals. They desperately need Sidney Rice back in the lineup, but its already way to late.

23. Washington Redskins- McNabb or Grossman? Well apparently Shanahan can't make up his mind. If I were a Redskins fan, I'd be needing someone to talk me off the ledge right about now.

The Garbage

24. Seattle Seahawks- As long as Charlie Whitehurst is the quarterback, how can they be above garbage level? They weren't even good to begin with.

25. San Fransisco 49ers- They are still a mess, just slightly less of a mess than they were two weeks ago.

26. Cincinnati Bengals- unfortunately I think we might be approaching the point where Vegas finally realizes this team is awful and I don't get to win an easy game against the spread every week.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars- I honestly can't for the life of me figure out how this team is 4-4.

28. Arizona Cardinals- Three losses in a row, no real excuse, they just aren't very good. Maybe we should have given Kurt Warner the MVP every year this team was actually good?

29. Denver Broncos- Well, at least the Cardinals haven't lost four straight, like the Broncos have.

30. Dallas Cowboys- Or 5 in a row, like Dallas! Damn what an embarrassment Green Bay handed them. What a joke of a team this is. Wade Phillips was fired half a season too late, and there is just nothing going for this team. Kitna at QB, turning the ball over at record paces, they just can't beat anyone at this point. Well, except maybe these next two teams.

31. Carolina Panthers- You know, I really wanted to put them last, because they deserve it. They are abysmal in every sense of the game.

32. Buffalo Bills- But until Buffalo actually beats a team, I can't move them out of the bottom spot. If you are winless, you get 32, its just that simple.

The Thursday Night Week 10 Pick

2010-11-10T19:00:00.000-08:00

Baltimore (PK) over ATLANTA

I'll take the team that I still think is the best team in the league, over the team that is the best in the crappy NFC. Baltimore looked VERY sharp against Miami. Let's see if Flacco and the boys can keep it going.

Week 9 Picks

2010-11-07T06:55:00.000-08:00

I've lost so much sleep this week, and with loss of sleep also comes loss of writing, unfortunately. But I will keep giving you guys my picks for every Sunday. I'm coming off a great week last week, so lets try and keep that going.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Chicago (-3) over Buffalo

San Diego (-3) over HOUSTON

New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA

Arizona (+7.5) over MINNESOTA

Tampa Bay (+9) over ATLANTA

DETROIT (+5.5) over New York Jets

Miami (+5) over BALTIMORE

Kansas City (+.5) over OAKLAND

Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

GREEN BAY (-8) over Dallas

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

New York Giants (-7) over SEATTLE

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

New England (-4) over CLEVELAND

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI

Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 60-52-5
Lock Picks: 11-11-2

Week 8 Picks

2010-10-30T19:25:00.000-07:00

Home team in CAPS

Lines Courtesy of sportsbetting.com

San Fransisco (-2.5) over Denver

Jacksonville (+6.5) over DALLAS

DETROIT (-2.5) over Washington

Green Bay (+6) over NEW YORK JETS

Carolina (+1.5) over ST. LOUIS

Tennessee (+4) over SAN DIEGO

OAKLAND (-3) over Seattle

NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Minnesota

Pittsburgh (+1) over NEW ORLEANS

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Houston

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

KANSAS CITY (-7) over Buffalo

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Tampa Bay (+3) over ARIZONA

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Miami (+1) over CINCINNATI

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 51-48-5
Lock Picks: 9-10-2

Week 8 Power Rankings

2010-10-28T20:58:00.000-07:00

The Elite

1. Baltimore Ravens- even if they were not impressive in their win over Buffalo, they still pulled it off, and thus, I can't drop them out of the top spot.

2. New York Jets- Bye week, stay at number 2.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- And the Steelers stay at number 3, but this time they round out the Elite teams after squeaking by Miami. I still believe these are the only three Elite teams through this stage of the season, and these are them.

The Contenders

4. Tennessee Titans- Boy did Kenny Britt make a name for himself this week huh? The Titans finally have a serious weapon in the passing game, to compliment the league's best running back. I really like their chances at going deep in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they play in the AFC.

5. Atlanta Falcons- Unlike the Falcons, who play in the abysmal NFC and have stood out, at least in my opinion, to be the best team in the Conference.

6. Indianapolis Colts- Why bet against Peyton Manning? Even with all of their injuries, they are still pretty close to an Elite team.

7. New England Patriots- The first team with some significant movement, I have been very impressed with how well New England has played the last two weeks. Very surprising that they pulled off wins against both the Ravens and Chargers. There is no way we can't call them contenders at this point.

8. Kansas City- The clear surprise team of the season, Kansas City continues to prove that they are legit, bouncing back from two tough losses to crush the Jaguars this past week. I'm a believer.

9. Green Bay Packers- Even with a bruised, battered and broken lineup, they beat the Vikings on Sunday night. They may not get much healthier and it is definitely a concern, but playing in the NFC keeps them contenders for sure.

10. Houston Texans- off a bye, but still one of the more balanced teams in the league. Unfortunate for them, they are in a division with two teams ranked above them.

11. New York Giants- Still the luckiest team in the league and you can't convince me otherwise. Three wins against backup QBs? And they still only beat the Kitna-led Cowboys by five? When are we going to see the real Giants against a good team? Unfortunately, their schedule is so soft that it may not come til very late in the season. Why haven't I bet on the AFC to win the Super Bowl yet?

The Mediocre

12. Seattle Seahawks- The definition of a mediocre team. 4-2, great at home, bad on the road, two of their wins come against their own awful division, and they are a pretty good bet to make the playoffs. Sad.

13. Chicago Bears- Another quintessential mediocre team. Do you feel confident that they can beat anyone going into a game? With that big of a hole in their offensive line, Cutler might not survive the season.

14. San Diego- I don't care that they are 2-5. They shouldn't be. They have one of the best offenses AND best defenses in the league. They should have a much better record, and I can see them bouncing back in a BIG way in the second half. Very deceiving record.

15. Washington Redskins- Nope, still not ready to call them contenders.

16. Philadelphia Eagles- The QB carousel will continue after next week, which I don't think is very fair to Kevin Kolb. His team lost to one of the best teams in football, and it wasn't his fault. Yet they feel more comfortable watching Mike Vick try and run around after his injury. I think its a mistake, but either way they are nothing more than another mediocre NFC team.

17. Miami Dolphins- Another team that could win any time out, but could also lose to any team in the league. Completely inconsistent, but should have beaten the Steelers and got hosed on a poor ruling by the officials.

18. New Orleans- They lost to the Browns, who aren't as bad as people think, but still aren't good either. They are suffering one giant Super Bowl Hangover, but in the NFC, they could still very easily grab a Wild Card spot.

19. Oakland Raiders- Wow. What got into the Oakland Raiders this week? It made very little sense, but hey, neither has anything in the NFL this year. I can't call a team that put up 59 Garbage, just can't do it.

20. Cleveland Browns- Like I said, they are not as bad as people think. Colt McCoy could be a player in this league yet. Maybe there will be a few teams who wished they hadn't passed on him, he looks decent for a rookie.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Their 4-2 record is about as deceiving as the Chargers 2-5.

22. St. Louis Rams- The team that lost to the team directly above this past week. They keep showing that they are just good enough to lose to other mediocre teams. But hey, for this Rams team, that's actually considered a plus!

23. Detroit Lions- They have actually outscored opponents on the season, and are 1-6. They almost beat the Giants with their third string QB, and they get Stafford back this week. Time to make your move, Lions.

The Garbage

24. Dallas Cowboys- No more Tony Romo, a 1-5 record, despite all the talent on the team, they are Garbage and going absolutely nowhere. Sorry Jerry.

25. Minnesota Vikings- Ahhh Brett Favre's swan song. Nothing is more satisfying than watching this scumbag's career and reputation go down in flames simultaneously. When will the streak end? Will it happpen due to injury, or coach's decision? I'll watch, gleefully.

26. Cincinnati Bengals- Yup, still being overrated, still a very easy call to bet against them, and they are still going to continue to lose and finish last in the division. Yup, behind Cleveland.

27. Arizona Cardinals- This team could make the playoffs. I don't think there is anything more to say about the state of the NFC.

28. San Francisco 49ers- Ladies and gentlemen, the Troy Smith era is about to begin!

29. Jacksonville Jaguars- Two of their three wins came against teams ranked lower than them. And there are only 3 teams ranked lower than them. I've said enough.

30. Denver Broncos- Turns out I wasn't being too harsh last time. I was being far, far too generous. What happened, Denver? 59 points allowed to the Raiders on your home field? Disgusting.

31. Carolina Panthers- At least they got in the win column this week, even if it was against the lowly Niners.

32. Buffalo Bills- They may be 0-6, but they sure did lose in style last week against Baltimore. Their offense is actually moving the ball. But until they get a win, there is no logical reason to move them up any higher.

Week 7 Picks

2010-10-23T14:37:00.000-07:00

The NFL is a cruel, unpredictable mistress. Sometimes, there is just no rhyme or reason to her ways. I had the worst week of my picking career last week, after a steady string of .500 weeks. It was brutal. The only good I took away from the week was a 30-3 drubbing that Tennessee laid on the Jaguars. Honestly, I'm just going to chalk up last week as a fluke. That's why I'm not doing a power rankings this week (well that and being slammed with other work and getting no sleep all week).

One thing I will say though, pound the overs this week. The officials are going to be over-reacting left and right on every hit that is even close to illegal, meaning 15 yard penalties galore. If you bet over/unders, this week was built for you.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI

Don't see any reason why they wouldn't win this game. They are probably the best team in football right now.

KANSAS CITY (-9) over Jacksonville

This game is off over at Sportsbetting, but I found this on another site so I'm rolling with it. The Jags are on their third string quarterback, this should be an EASY win for KC.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Philadelphia

Both teams performed very well last week, but I just think Tennessee is better overall. Should be some fireworks here though, a good one to watch.

CHICAGO (-3) over Washington

Because Chicago is due for a good game, and Washington is due for a stinker.

Cleveland (+13) over NEW ORLEANS

Because I haven't picked an underdog yet, and Colt McCoy looked good in his first start.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Buffalo

This game could be a shutout. Ed Reed is back in business for Blatimore, and the Bills are simply awful.

CAROLINA (+3) over San Francisco

Because I HATE San Francisco.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis

I'm still holding out hope that the Rams won't win 5 games, so really this is wishful thinking in a game that no one in their right mind would want to watch.

SAN DIEGO (-2.5) over New England

They are extremely desperate and I'm still not totally sold on the Patriots. Plus they play infinitely better at home and Phillip Rivers is bound to be pissed off, so I like them.

Oakland (+7.5) over DENVER

Everyone and their mother is picking the Broncos, but hell, who says Kyle Boller can't come out and shock the world. This is the NFL we are living in people!!!

Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY

It is physically painful for me to pick the completely overrated and joke of a team led by Brett Favre over my Super Bowl pick, but, the Packers are just too beat up. The Vikings catch them at the PERFECT time.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

SEATTLE (-6.5) over Arizona

Max Hall on the road in the league's toughest environment? I don't like that combination. the Seattle defense dominates this one.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

DALLAS (-3.5) over New York Giants

The Giants almost lost to the Detroit Lions... who were playing their THIRD STRING QUARTERBACK. Dallas is desperate to save their season and they are at home. I think they win this game, easily.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

ATLANTA (-3.5) over Cincinnati

It is crazy how much Vegas continues to overrate this Cincinnati team. Atlanta needs to bounce back here and I think they will, easily.

Last week: 4-9-1
Overall: 44-41-5
Lock Picks: 7-9-2

Week 6 Picks

2010-10-16T06:38:00.000-07:00

Sorry guys, but lack of time this week makes for a lack of commentary on the picks, only really short notes this week. Be sure to peruse the power rankings for some explanation as to what I think about these teams. Here are my week 6 picks.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

San Diego (-8) over ST. LOUIS
San Diego can't lay two eggs in a row to Garbage teams

Kansas City (+5) over HOUSTON
KC is simply playing better than Houston at this point.

TAMPA BAY (+4.5) over New Orleans
Tampa is on the rise and New Orleans is on the decline. Ripe upset pick.

Detroit (+10.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
As I said in my power rankings, potential upset pick here as Eli is never very consistent and Detroit hitting stride.

CHICAGO (-6.5) over Seattle
Seattle on the road and Cutler is back this week. Bears might pitch a shutout.

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over MIAMI
Let's hope Aaron Rodgers isn't hampered by his injury.

Cleveland (+13.5) over PITTSBURGH
Like I said, Cleveland generally keeps it close, and I think their will be some rust on Big Ben. Expect a lot of running game for both teams, which shouldn't mean a blowout.

New York Jets (-3) over DENVER
I can't see the Broncos staying close against the Jets. Revis and Cromartie should give their passing game fits.

Oakland (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO
I'll take the points, and then San Fran will get their first win in a blowout. Just watch.

Dallas (+1.5) over MINNESOTA
Too much going against Minnesota in this must win game for both teams.

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

I really hope the Titans aren't going to toy with my emotions all season, with one good week, followed by a bad. They are due for a bad one, but Jacksonville just doesn't scare me.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Baltimore (+2.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Don't know why New England is the favorite over the best team in football.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Indianapolis (-3) over WASHINGTON
The Redskins can't beat the Colts.... can they?

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Atlanta (+2) over PHILADELPHIA
This line is a joke, Atlanta should be favored by 6.

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 40-32-4
Lock Picks: 6-8-1

Week 6 Power Rankings

2010-10-15T18:45:00.000-07:00

I'm going to use a little bit different format this time around, still trying different things to see what works best. I'm going to say a little bit about each team and why they moved to where they did, instead of writing paragraphs at the end of each section. Lets see if you like it better or worse.

The Elite

1. Baltimore Ravens- Yes, finally we have someone who has broken into the Elite. With wins over both the number 2 and 3 teams, the Ravens hold strong at the top of the rankings, and are a truly elite level team in this NFL with very few of them.
2. New York Jets- There are two Elite level teams to be precise, and the Jets are the other. 4-1 on the year and they have looked dominant on defense (expected) and better than average on offense (a pleasant surprise for Jets fans). Their only loss came against the only team that ranks ahead of them. Good luck to anyone who draws them in the near future. Can LT keep this up? He looks young again.

The Contenders

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- There is a very good chance that Pittsburgh becomes the third elite team next week. They are 3-1, have the best defense in the league, and are getting their starting quarterback back this week. I just want to see if Big Ben is ready to go or if there will be some rust. We'll find out this week.
4. Atlanta Falcons- In a season where every team seems to fall flat, Atlanta keeps chugging along. They can't be any lower than 4, and look like a lock to win the NFC South.
5. Indianapolis Colts- This is where things begin to get seriously dicey. Every other team I had as contenders last week came out and laid an egg, so Indy jumps all of them by beating previously unbeaten Kansas City. This is probably about right for the Colts at this point.
6. Tennessee Titans- The Titans played like they are capable of against a tough but underachieving Cowboys team. If they play like this, they can beat anyone, which is why they jump back into the ring of contenders this week.
7. Chicago Bears- They beat an atrocious team, but they had a terrible quarterback starting for them. Their record stands at 4-1 and they get Cutler back this week. That defense is legit.
8. San Diego Chargers- I know they lost to the Raiders, but they SHOULDN'T have lost to the Raiders. They thoroughly dominated that game, and only lost because of blocked kicks. They are scary on offense.
9. Kansas City Chiefs- They didn't win, but their loss to the Colts was just as impressive as their wins. I really think they remain a contender, and if they can ever figure out a passing game, they can be VERY scary.
10. Green Bay Packers- Losing that game to the Redskins was an embarrassment. They need to bounce back in a hurry, and they are suffering some serious injuries. My Super Bowl Pick is in shambles right now.
11. Houston Texans- Another team that I think is a legitimate contender that laid an egg against a mediocre team. But hey, maybe the Giants are better than we thought?

The Mediocre

12. New Orleans Saints- They don't look like defending Super Bowl champions, and with their loss to the awful Cardinals, they drop from the ranks of contenders. Get it together New Orleans or you will be on the outside looking in come the post-season.
13. New England Patriots- Off a bye this week. Lost Randy Moss, only lost one spot here though. Lets see how they do against Baltimore.
14. Washington Redskins- They beat Green Bay, but they looked ugly doing it. I'm just not ready to call this team a contender yet. I don't know if I ever will be.
15. Philadelphia Eagles- The definition of a mediocre team. Just good enough to get by, not good enough to be a real contender.
16. New York Giants- The pinnacle of inconsistency. Just when they suck you in they will lay an egg. Watch out for a Detroit upset this week.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-1. Beat the Saints this week, and then we will have something serious to consider here.
18. Miami Dolphins- Off a bye, no movement.
19. Dallas Cowboys- Their is just too much talent on this team to rank them any lower, despite their 1-4 record.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars- A win is a win, even if it is against the Bills.
21. Denver Broncos- Maybe I'm being a bit harsh here, but I don't trust a team with a bad defense and no running game. Even if they can throw the hell out of the ball.
22. Minnesota Vikings- Lost to an elite team, but they didn't look good doing it, plus their starting quarterback is acting as if he might miss time. I just see this team going straight downhill into the gutter.
23. Seattle Seahawks- Off a bye, move up one spot as others proved to suck more than them.
24. Cleveland Browns- They at least manage to keep games relatively close every time out, which keeps them above Garbage level.
25. Detroit Lions- Now THAT is how you break out of the Garbage bracket! They laid a whooping on the Rams, and should really have 2 wins already. If they beat the Giants this week, they will continue to vault up the list.

The Garbage

26. Cincinnati Bengals- This team is Garbage. They are not good, at all. Everyone needs to stop overrating them.
27. Arizona Cardinals- I don't care that they won, I'm still not buying the Max Hall era.
28. St. Louis Rams- they lose to the Lions, they get the Lions former spot. They were just dominated.
29. Oakland Raiders- they get no recognition for beating the Chargers. That was a fluke of all flukes type game. They were outplayed and they shouldn't have won, I'm not moving them up for playing poorly. Sorry Raiders fans.
29. San Francisco 49ers- I still think they can turn it around, with their schedule being so awful, but until they actual start to make that turnaround, I can't realistically rank them higher.
31. Carolina Panthers- The only team that might be as bad as...
32. Buffalo Bills- The Buffalo Bills. Someone has to be last, and they seem to be quite comfortable in the spot.

Check back later for Week 6 Picks!

Week 5 Picks

2010-10-09T08:48:00.000-07:00

Another .500 week last week, and I guess it could be worse. I could be putting up losing weeks. Still have a strong overall record on the season. Lets try and get in the positive category this time around.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

BALTIMORE (-7) over Denver

The team at the top of my power rankings at home against a mediocre team due for a hangover game. Baltimore please.

Kansas City (-7.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Great line for this one, and it could easily go either way. Lots of factors in this one. Kansas City has obviously overachieved so far on the season so far, while Indianapolis has underachieved based on their expectations. Indy is terrible at stopping the run and the Chiefs have a pair of fantstic backs. The Colts are due for a bounce back and its tough to bet against Peyton Manning coming off a loss. I'm going to take the Chiefs to keep it close, but Indy to win the game. I just have to take the points.

St. Louis (+3) over DETROIT

Another game I'm not completely sold on, as I usually take the points when its between two bad teams, and I think the Rams are better anyway. Its going to be a bad game that I have no interest in watching, so I'm just going to take the points and move on.

Tampa Bay (+7) over CINCINNATI

Speaking of those Bengals, I'm going to keep picking against them until Vegas realizes they aren't very good. Tampa Bay keeps it close, if not wins.

Chicago (+1.5) over CAROLINA

Todd Collins vs Jimmy Clausen. Does anyone actually want to see this game? Its nearly impossible to pick, because the bears would be favored with Cutler in the game, but with Collins who knows what will happen. I still think they win, I just can't but Carolina as a legitimate football team.

Green Bay (-2.5) over WASHINGTON

Ok Washington, here is your chance. At home, against a depleted Packer team, still underdogs. If you can pull this one off, I'll accept you as a legitimate team, if not, you still suck. I'm not counting on them coming through.

HOUSTON (-3) over New York Giants

New York realizes that playing against Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is a little more challenging than taking on Todd Collins and Johnny Knox. And having an offensive line is great too. Houston wins easily.

San Diego (-6) over OAKLAND

For some reason, Vegas still likes this Raider team. It doesn't make sense. San Diego is rolling right now. They just throughly dominated Arizona and Oakland lost to Houston by a touchdowm last week. San Diego is better than Houston. Its a classic upset type game, but I'm betting on San Diego's talent.

Tennessee (+7) over DALLAS

I think this line is about right, but I think the Titans have a bounce back game against Dallas, who really hasn't been that impressive. I can't not pick my team here, getting a full touchdown.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Philadelphia

THIS is the game San Francisco finally gets a win. They are going to crush Kevin Kolb on defense. I like Kolb, I really do, but the Niners couldn't be more desperate. Plus they are at home. Doesn't set up well for a rookie QB who's team abandoned him already this season.

NEW YORK JETS (-4) over Minnesota

Minnesota is a mediocre team, even with Randy Moss. Brett Favre's penis is all over the internet (allegedly). And the Jets are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. What's not to like with New York at home in the Monday Nighter. Nothing.

Second Runner-up Lock of the Week

Jacksonville (+2) over BUFFALO

Buffalo is the worst team in football, yet they are favored here. Likely due to a warm weather team coming into Buffalo, and Jacksonville is the biggest candidate for a hangover there is after beating the Colts last week. I just don't see how Buffalo can stop them. MJD should have a big game and the Bills should drop to 0-5.

First Runner-up Lock of the Week

Atlanta (-3) over CLEVELAND

Atlanta just keeps chugging along. They are the clearly better team here, and I don't see Cleveland putting up much of a fight. Atlanta takes this one easily on the road against a bad opponent who got lucky to escape against Cincinnati with a win last week.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints (-7) over ARIZONA

This line should be 13+. Arizona is just awful, fully pathetic. I know the Saints disappointed against Carolina last week, but they will come out and destroy the Cardinals. Only a touchdown? Child Please.

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 33-25-4
Lock Picks: 4-7-1

Week 5 Power Rankings

2010-10-07T17:04:00.000-07:00

The Elite

Still no one. There has not been a single team to separate themselves from the pack 4 games into the year. There seems to be a lot of parity this season, and thats the way the NFL wants it. Lots of teams in this years mix, because there is a lot of mediocrity. This is also why there have been so many underdogs covering spreads in the early going this season. But lets get on with the ranks.

The Contenders

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New York Jets
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. San Diego Chargers
8. Houston Texans
9. New Orleans Saints

I've cut the contenders by three this week. The Colts, Titans, Dolphins and Bears all put in performances this week that simply could not be considered contender worthy. The Colts and Titans lost close games to bad teams, and the Bears and Dolphins got blown out by mediocre teams. That means they all fall back to the middle of the pack.

The San Diego Chargers are the newest member to the group of contenders, and they got there with a performance that was purely dominant against Arizona. Arizona is terrible, but you can't deny a team that was so pristine on both sides of the ball a spot in the contenders ring. They rise up from number 15 all the way to number 7.

The Baltimore Ravens secure the top spot for this week after knocking off last week's top team. I love the Ravens and thought they were a top 3 team preseason, and I think they have shown a great balance that no other team has matched. They may be there for a while.

The Jets move into the number two spot after thrashing the Buffalo Bills. Wouldn't be that impressive, but they have done more than enough this season to prove they belong here. If Sanchez continues to develop, this may be a dynasty in the making.

The Mediocre

10. Indianapolis Colts
11. Chicago Bears
12. New England Patriots
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Denver Broncos
15. Dallas Cowboys
16. Minnesota Vikings
17. Washington Redskins
18. Miami Dolphins
19. New York Giants
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Cincinnati Bengals
22. St. Louis Rams
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
24. Seattle Seahawks
25. Cleveland Browns
26. Jacksonville Jaguars

Here is where I illustrate my earlier point about parity. Three teams fell into the realm of mediocrity while another three rose up from the dregs to join them. The Rams made the biggest jump, and they actually showed some serious fight against the Seahawks. They actually have two wins in four games, and I can honestly say I'm totally shocked. I DID NOT expect Sam Bradford to play anywhere near this level this fast. This is one team that could actually vastly outperform preseason expectations and it is all on Bradford. If he keeps this up, expect further climbs up this board. If he shows signs of being a rookie, they could be back in the Garbage in no time.

Also joining the Rams in the ascent to the middle are the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams that pulled off victories over higher ranked opponents. I expected the Browns, but I didn't see the Jags winning at all. Every powerhouse team is allowed to lay an egg once in a while, and the Colts sure did there. I don't trust the Jags at all, but any team that can beat the Colts has to make it out of Garbage-level.

The New England Patriots showed some serious life on Monday night... and then proceeded to trade away Randy Moss, their biggest weapon. How this plays out is yet to be seen but I can't think its a good thing. I still think they are a 9-7 mediocre team, even with their trouncing of Miami. The Moss trade kinda keeps them in limbo for me. The Dolphins, however, fall considerably out of the ranks of contenders all the way down to 18.

Washington has jumped five spots with a statement win over Philadelphia, further proving that the NFC East is a jumbled mess of mediocrity. I doubt any team in this division breaks from this group the rest of the season (the Cowboys have the best chance, and they were on a bye). I will say this, Ryan Torain impressed me. If they let this kid run the ball on a full time basis, and I believe they have to with Portis out, they could grind out a few more wins in this weak division and could surprise with a division win and a trip to the playoffs. I'm not counting on it, but they DO sit in first as we speak.

The Garbage

24. Carolina Panthers
25. San Francisco 49ers
28. Detroit Lions
29. Oakland Raiders
31. Arizona Cardinals
32. Buffalo Bills

All of these teams lost and remain Garbage to me. The Cardinals fall all the way down to the number 31 spot, and are going to move forward with undrafted rookie quarterback Max Hall. Larry Fitzgerald can NOT be pleased with this situation.

See you tomorrow morning with this weeks Picks!

Week 4 Picks

2010-10-02T08:24:00.000-07:00

My worst week of the season last week, with a .500 record. Lets try to get back on the right track in week 4.

Home team in CAPS

TENNESSEE (-7) over Denver

Tennessee is giving a touchdown at home coming off a big win over the Giants. They are a much better team than Denver, especially when Denver doesn't have their top running back (who also happens to be their best weapon on offense). I don't see them hanging with the Titans on the road.

Baltimore (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH

This goes against my better judgement, as Pittsburgh has played like the best team in football and have the homefield, but I am taking the underdog team that I think has the talent to put up a fight. It should be a close game either way, and I think the Ravens can win. I sure hope they can, or my Super Bowl pick is already looking very shaky.

CLEVELAND (+3) over Cincinnati

I can't take a mediocre team on the road giving three points. This has a classic upset game feel. I know the Browns are bad, but they g=have showed a little something in their three games and I think they get their first win in this one.

Detroit (+14.5) over GREEN BAY

I almost always pick Green Bay. But I just don't think they are more than two touchdowns better than the Detroit Lions. By no means do I think the Lions are going to pull this upset, but can they stay withing 14? I think so.

NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Carolina

This, however, is a game that I think could get ugly. With Jimmy Clausen at quarterback for Carolina, I think they have already admitted they are going nowhere this season. Expect lots of INTs and lots of points for the Saints in this one.

San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA

Lets see what happpens. I really have no clue what to do when it comes to the 49ers. So this week, I am going to pick them and see if they can keep it close in Atlanta. Maybe the new offensive Coordinator will make all the difference. Probably not...

Seattle (-1.5) over ST. LOUIS

Likely without Steven Jackson, the best player on the team,New and still only point and a half dogs? Kind of confused by the line. I know Seattle is awful on the road, but St. Louis is awful everywhere. I think Seattle wins this, even if it stays close, its an easy line to cover.

New York Jets (-6) over BUFFALO

The Bills showed something against the Patriots last week, but I think that was more about how awful the Patriot defense is, rather than anything positive about the Bills. Now they get to play a fantastic defense, and I doubt they can do anything to stop LT and Shonn Greene. Jets roll here.

Houston (-3.5) over OAKLAND

I don't like Oakland, and I do like Houston. I just think talent-wise, Houston should crush the Raiders. Why they are only giving three and a half is beyond me. Are the Raiders really that good at home? Their record hasn't shown it in the past few years.

SAN DIEGO (-9) over Arizona

This line is just about right. I'm going with San Diego because I think the likelihood of a blowout is much higher than the likelihood of an Arizona win. Phillip Rivers has a big game teeing off against an awful Arizona team that can't score any points.

PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) over Washington

Donovan McNabb returns to Philly for the first time and I don't see it going very well for him. This is the last game that I see Michael Vick having a stellar game, and then it could get ugly for him, but against a very mediocre Redskins team, the Eagles should win at home by at least a touchdown.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

MIAMI (+1.5) over New England

In the heat of Miami on a Monday night, New England is going to have the same problems they had against the Jets. The Dolphins don't present quite as strong a defense as New York, but the offense is even better. Chad Henne is in for a big game against the pitiful defense of the Patriots. Miami is just the better team at this point, and they give New England fits, especially when they are exhausted in the second half of this one.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE

I don't get this one AT ALL. Jacksonville is just a bad team, playing a borderline elite team in the Colts. I really expected this line to be about 13. How can I not take Peyton Manning in this one?

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Chicago (+3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I had to stare at this line for a couple of minutes. Not because the game was hard to pick, but because I thought there had to be a mistake. How are the 3-0 Bears, who just beat the Green Bay Packers, 3 and a half point dogs to the garbage New York Giants who just got obliterated by Tennessee? This is my Lock of the Week, and nothing else came close to taking that title.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 26-18-4
Lock Picks: 4-4-1

Week 4 Power Rankings

2010-09-30T16:13:00.000-07:00

As promised, my NFL Power Rankings are here, for the first time this season. I'm still not sold completely on any of these rankings, but at least through 3 weeks of football, this is how I see the teams stacking up.

In case you missed it from last year, I will be separating the teams into 4 categories: The Elite, The Contenders, The Mediocre, and The Garbage (new name this year). The names should be pretty self explanatory, then their will be a few words on the teams in each category and why they are where they are, especially if a team was a significant mover from the previous week.

So here we go, the first Power Rankings of the year commences...

The Elite

No one.

That's right, going a little unprecedented here, but there have been no elite teams in the NFL this season. Had the Packers not used 18 penalties to beat themselves against the Bears, they would have made this list, but they totally derailed their Elite status in the Monday Nighter.

The Contenders

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Green Bay Packers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Tennessee Titans
6. New York Jets
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Chicago Bears
9. Houston Texans
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Miami Dolphins
12. Kansas City Chiefs

Twelve teams make the cut as contenders for week 4, with Pittsburgh on top. They have simply outperformed everyone, with a difficult schedule, and without their starting quarterback. That, folks, is ridiculous. How have they done it? With a defense that is simply other-worldly. Like I have said before, Troy Polamalu might just be the MVP of this league.

The other two undefeated teams are also surprise contenders, the Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs. I think its safe to say that no one saw these teams opening the season 3-0, but they certainly have to be considered contenders now. Jay Cutler has looked really sharp in Mike Martz' offensive system, and could be a fantasy juggernaut for anyone who trusted him. And he might just lead this Bears team to a run at the Super Bowl. I'm not quite so high on the Chiefs, because I don't trust Matt Cassel as much, but they do have some serious weapons in Thomas Jones, Jamal Charles, and rookie Dexter McCluster. Add an improved defense and this team has to be considered a contender.

The rest of the teams are more or less the same teams I expected to contend for this year's title, so we'll get into them more as the weeks go on.

The Mediocre

13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. New England Patriots
15. San Diego Chargers
16. Cincinnati Bengals
17. Dallas Cowboys
18. Seattle Seahawks
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Denver Broncos
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22. Washington Redskins

There are a couple teams in this group that come as a shock to me. First, the Dallas Cowboys, who currently sit at 1-2. If they hadn't pulled off a huge, season-saving win over Houston, they wouldn't even make the mediocre list. They have played overwhelmingly poor considering their level of talent. Wade Phillips seat could not be hotter, and if they don't continue to gain steam in this weak division, he will be fired mid-season.

The San Diego Chargers have also failed to impress in the early going, and need to get a move on because, as I mentioned, KC are true contenders. It would help if their stud rookie Ryan Mathews could get healthy, or if they had Vincent Jackson. I am not terribly worried about this team, as the division still isn't terribly strong with the Raiders and Broncos in it, but they need to get it together, and fast.

The New England Patriots are nothing more than a mediocre football team at this point. Their offence is great, but their defense is worse than I thought. They gave up 30 points to Buffalo, the worst team in football! That is startlingly bad. I don't see how a team with their defense can compete with any team that has some decent talent, as they showed in their loss to the Jets. These are not the Patriots of their glory years. Those 3 Super Bowls are in the rear-view mirror, and I don't think they are coming back any time soon.

There are two teams that should be glad to achieve mediocre status, the Seahawks and Buccaneers. I thought both of these currently 2-1 teams would be horrible, but Seattle is in the driver seat in the NFC West (not that that is saying much) and Tampa Bay has shown some fight. Will be interesting to see if either can keep it up.

The Garbage

23. New York Giants
24. Arizona Cardinals
25. Oakland Raiders
26. Cleveland Browns
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Detroit Lions
29. San Francisco 49ers
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Carolina Panthers
32. Buffalo Bills

Many of these teams are no surprise. The Raiders, Browns, Rams, Lions and Bills have been cellar dwellers for a few years now. However, teams like the Giants, Cardinals and those damn Niners were certainly not expected.

I've been hailing the New York Giants as a mediocre team at best for two years now. But now? They are just plain Garbage. They have the single most over-rated defense in all of football. Eli Manning is not the superstar quarterback the New York media would have you believe. this team is very far removed from its Super Bowl victory of 2007.

Arizona has fallen so far this season it is staggering. Now, it was not difficult to see this coming, but by season's end they might be the league's worst team. Kurt Warner was just so valuable for this team, and losing one of the league's best receivers (Boldin) doesn't help either. The two losses they have already grabbed may be their last for some time.

And then their are the San Francisco 49ers. My mortal nemesis. I predicted this team to be horrible last season, and they played very well and surprised me, costing me money. This season? Of course I translated the impression they left on me last year into a leap forward this year and a division win. So what does San Francisco do? They come up and start 0-3 and look absolutely horrible. Alex Smith goes back to the old Alex Smith. Michael Crabtree, who looked like a star down the stretch last year, has been useless. The division is terrible, so they still have a good chance to bounce back, probably better than anyone else on this list because of the schedule, but it needs to happen soon. Are you listening Mike Singletary? Your seat is hotter than Wade Phillips'!

And then there's Buffalo... poor poor Buffalo. Andrew Luck anyone?

Week 3 Picks

2010-09-25T19:25:00.000-07:00

After this week, there will be a full set of Power Rankings. I promise. Between time constraints and the fact that two weeks can't tell us much anyway, they just can't be done before this Sunday. But starting next week there will be two columns a week, power rankings, along with the usual picks. Enjoy your week 3 picks for now!

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Home team in CAPS

Tennessee (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I'm not terribly confident either way in this one, so I will take my team. The Giants got SMOKED last week by the Colts, and the Titans were shut down on offense by a surprisingly outstanding Pittsburgh defense (more on that later). It will be a very interesting game, to see if either of these teams are for real.

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Buffalo

Its a TON of points, but Tom Brady comes back huge after just about every bad game he has had in his career. Its like clockwork. I expect an offensive show out of the pats, through the air and on the ground. Green Bay covered 13 easily last week, I see the same for New England here. The Bills are in for a whipping boy season. Good luck getting Andrew Luck in the draft!

BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland

I just don't see how Cleveland moves the ball against the Baltimore defense. And this could definitely be the week that Joe Flacco puts it together for the first time this season. The Browns are very much like the Bills. They stink.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY

Pittsburgh's defense was other-worldly against Tennessee. Troy Polamalu might be the single most valuable player in the NFL. Not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees or Tom Brady, Troy Polamalu. He is the most important player on a defense that can shut you DOWN. Tampa has been impressive through two games, but they get their first big test of the season, and I think they fail, miserably.

CAROLINA (+3.5) over Cincinnati

This is a tough one for me. I think Cincinnati stinks, but Carolina has PROVEN that they do. I'm only taking them because they are getting points at home, and they need to win. I'm not confident at all.

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Atlanta

Boy, Atlanta sure looked good against Arizona last week. But lets face it, Arizona is awful. New Orleans is not. Drew Brees, at home, against Matt Ryan and a banged up Michael Turner. I have to take the favorite.

KANSAS CITY (+2.5) over San Francisco

I've really got no idea. San Francisco is my mortal gambling enemy. No matter what I say they will do, they do the opposite. So I will pick Kansas City here, in hopes that the Niners win, and help out my over/under season bet on them. But somehow I'm sure it will blow up in my face. I hate you San Francisco.

HOUSTON (-2.5) over Dallas

Houston is going to not only prove that it is the best team in Texas, it is also going to end Jerry Jones bid for a home Super Bowl, and end Wade Phillips tenure as head coach of the Cowboys. The Texans are tough to beat. And the NFC East, is pretty bad, which is a big surprise to just about everyone.

Washington (-4.5) over ST. LOUIS

Speaking of the bad NFC East, are the Redskins the best team in it? I can't bring myself to say they are. I just can't do it, not yet anyway. But they are definitely above the level of being a bad football team, so they really should handle the Rams pretty easily.

Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

I don't like this Michael Vick experiment in Philly, but I do think it will get them past Jacksonville. I just don't understand how Kevin Kolb goes from being the guy to being the other guy after one half of football and an injury. I think Vick has yet to show why he was never all that successful before he went to prison, but he will soon enough. I just don't think Jacksonville is good enough to be the team to expose him.

Indianapolis (-6) over DENVER

With no Moreno, that leaves Denver with Correll Buckhalter and Lawrence Maroney in the backfield. You beat the Colts by running the ball relentlessly on them. Denver has two bad running backs. This should be more than easy for the Colts. The only reason this line isn't above 7 is the Denver home field advantage, and although it is one of the better fields in the league, it won't be enough to stop the Colts.

SEATTLE (+4.5) over San Diego

Seattle is an entirely different team at home, as they showed in weeks one and two. I think San Diego is not quite as good as they used to be, and they are without starting running back Ryan Mathews. I think they get hit in the mouth here by a hungry Seattle team. Take the points.

New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI

Both teams are strong, but even without Revis the Jets will be very good at stopping Miami (a primarily ground attack team). I just don't see any team that can start running away with this division, and its just one of those classic upset type games. The Jets may be down an elite corner, and their number one receiver, but I just think they win this game. Call it a gut feeling, just like I had with them last week, and that worked out very well.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA

I don't get it. Don't get it one bit. What has Arizona done to show anyone that they have even a shred of hope this season? I am shocked by this line. I'd have the Raiders favored by 4.5 if I were setting the line. Getting points is a gift.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO

The Packers are not the Dallas Cowboys. Get ready for a rude awakening Chicago, you are not as good as you have played so far. I expect a rough day for Jay Cutler and his Bears. Packers shine in this Monday night contest between the sport's oldest rivals.

Lock of the Week

Detroit (+12) over MINNESOTA

Has Vegas not watched the first two weeks? These are two teams they have been way too slow to adjust their lines on. The Lions have proven they can cover a spread, and I'm riding that train. Brett Favre has shown that he is old, out of practice, and missing his number one weapon. I'll DEFINITELY take the 12 points.

Last Week: 10-5-1
Season: 18-10-4
Lock Picks: 3-2-1

Week 2 Picks

2010-09-18T18:15:00.000-07:00

No Power Rankings as of yet, because I don't like to do them until we get a couple of games under our collective belts. Their's simply not enough separation between the teams after one week to write an effective PR column. Maybe next week, definitely by week 4. Here we go with my picks for tomorrow's games.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13) over Buffalo Bills

The Packers suffered a major blow to their offense, losing Ryan Grant in week one, and its going to be up to Brandon Jackson to step in and fill his shoes, but the Bills have an absolutely terrible rush defense. He should do fine here. I don't care how many points the spread is, I think Green Bay is the best in the league, and Buffalo might be the worst. Two touchdowns might be easy for the Packers.

Chicago (+7.5) over DALLAS

I think Chicago is a little better than Washington on both sides of the ball, and they managed to beat Dallas. I just don't see how not to take the underdog here. Maybe Dallas will come out firing on all cylinders, but after what I saw last week, I won't be trusting them until I see it.

TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Pittsburgh

The Titans were very easy money last week, and while I don't think the Steelers will be push-overs like the Raiders were, but without Big Ben, its going to be tough for them to hang with a very good Tennessee team on the road. Titans advance to 2-0.

DETROIT (+7) over Philadelphia

The Eagles will start Michael Vick at quarterback this week, his first start since being convicted of dog fighting, and I really don't trust that he will be in mid-season form. He does get an easy opponent to start off with, but I think the Lions actually have a shot at pulling the upset here. They should have won last week, but Calvin Johnson didn't know enough to actually hold onto the football, as I'm sure you've seen by now. The NFL needs to adapt their rules to account for Megatron's freakish hands. Detroit keeps it close here.

CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay

Carolina at home against a bad Tampa team? Whats not to like? I know the Giants dismantled the Panthers last week, but that showed me more about the Giants than the Panthers. I still think Tampa is no good, and really like that Carolina is only giving 3.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona

Man Arizona looked bad against the Rams didn't they? Can't wait to see what Atlanta can do against a really weak defense. I;m very interested in the outcome here. If Atlanta is going to make the playoffs, its games like this that they need to handle with ease.

Miami (+6) over MINNESOTA

I predict a low scoring game with Miami coming out on top. Brett Favre looked out of practice, out of sync, and old against the Saints. They were only in that game because of their defense. They will be in this one here as well, but it will remain close, even if they do pull off the win. So I'll definitely take 6.

St. Louis (+3.5) over OAKLAND

Short and sweet, two terrible teams, take the points. Plus, St. Louis looked ok last week.

Seattle (+3.5) over DENVER

Yeah, this may be an overreaction to Seattle just brutally thrashing the Niners in week one, but so what? Its not like Denver is any good either. At least they didn't show that they were in week one. I'll take those points, and see if this Seattle team could be for real.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Jacksonville

A very tough call for me, because I think Jacksonville has the ability to put up a fight, I just think this is almost a must win for San Diego. They need to bounce back against an inferior team and keep their footing in the division. I know its way too early for anything to be a real must win, but they will be fired up to show everyone the Kansas City game wasn't the real Chargers.

NEW YORK JETS (+3) over New England

Did the Patriots look good in week one? Of course! Were they playing a bad team, Absolutely! At least in my opinion. they are going to get punched in the mouth this week against their rival Jets. Its going to be loud in that stadium, and the Jets need this one. The Ravens (better than New England) barely got by New York, and I think the Jets take a close battle dominated by field goal kickers, 20-19.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over New York Giants

So Indy didn't look all that great in week one, at least on defense. But New York doesn't have the running game Houston had in week one either. Points are going to be through the roof in this one, and I think the older of the Manning's bests his brother by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-6) over SAN FRANSISCO

Yes, I'm bitter. San Francisco cost me money. I just can't bring myself to pick them this week. Its that simple in this Monday night match-up.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Houston (-3) over WASHINGTON

Two teams who's stock rose significantly in week one, but I will take the one that beat the better team, the Texans. I'm not ready to overvalue Washington yet. Give me that high powered offense with newfound fantasy gold Arian Foster.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Kansas City (+3) over CLEVELAND

I really don't understand how the Browns are favored in this game. Is it the short week? The road factor? Or do they just not buy the Chiefs after their win of San Diego last week. I don't see any reason why KC wouldn't beat the lowly Browns, comfortably.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Baltimore (-2.5) over CINCINNATI

Its easy for me to pick this game, because I think the Bengals stink. On top of that, I think the Ravens are really, really good. So add 2 and 2 together, you should get 4 every time. Ravens take this one easily.

Last Week: 8-5-3
Season: 8-5-3
Lock Picks: 2-1

Week 1 Picks

2010-09-11T10:17:00.000-07:00

Here's the drill, same as last year. I will be picking each NFL game, against the spread. I will include My Lock of the Week, as well as two runners-up. Are you ready for some football???

Home team in Caps

Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO

I like the Lions to come out firing right from the start, and to actually win this game. The Bears aren't that good, and in a shoootout like this projects to be, I'm taking the points on the rising team.

NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) over Cincinnati

There will be points scored in this one, as their will be in every New England game this season, but I believe their dynamic offense will prove too much for the Bengals, who I truly believe are in for a step back this season. Their defense isn't good enough to make up for the disparity between their offense and New England's.

Carolina (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I like Carolina better than the Giants this season, and they are getting 6.5 points, so of course I am going to take them. Looks like the Giants are going to be overrated once again, and I am going to enjoy watching them wallow in mediocrity. Panthers take it on the road.

Atlanta (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH

A good team vs a good team without its starting quarter back? I'll take the team that isn't starting Dennis Dixon. Its really that simple.

Cleveland (+3) over TAMPA BAY

A strategy that I found to be very useful last season, and I don't plan on straying from this year, if two horrendous teams are matched up against each other, just take the points. Thats what I will do here with Cleveland over the Bucs.

JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Denver

I'm interested in this game because while I don't think either team is going to be good, I don't quite have a handle on them either. I'll take the home team here in week one, but there will be much to be learned in this game.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over HOUSTON

Like I said in the preview, until you prove you can beat the best teams, Houston, I can't pick you in these games. I have to take a stocked and ready Indianapolis team in this one. Only giving 2.5 is a gift.

ST. LOUIS (+4) over Arizona

Why not? Do I think they will win? No, not really. But hey, I think both teams have a very good chance at being atrocious, so once again, I'm just going to take the points.

Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA

When do I not pick Green Bay? What can I say I just love this team, and I think its going to be a great statement game in week one against the Eagles on the road. Aaron Rodgers is not going to let Kevin Kolb beat him. No way.

Dallas (-3.5) over WASHINGTON

Dallas may have looked bad in preseason, but at least their 100 million dollar defensive tackle isn't practicing with the scout team! McNabb is limping, and I just don't think Washington is in the same league as Dallas, but we'll find out Sunday night.

Baltimore (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS

Rex takes on his old team, and he has given Ray Lewis and the Ravens more than enough motivation to want to kick his ass. Expect a grind it out battle of the young running backs, but Baltimore is just a better team. They have a much more balanced attack. With two great defenses on the field, I'll take the QB and RB combo I trust, in Flacco and Rice. Should be a fun game though.

KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over San Diego

Remember how I mentioned that the rest of the AFC West has gotten better? I'm displaying that opinion here, and saying that Kansas City will not only cover, but BEAT San Diego in the second Monday night game. I think it is going to take San Diego a little while to get in sync this season, with the rookie Running back and no Vincent Jackson. I still think they will be very good, but I think the opportunity is right there for a young and building Kansas City team to score a pretty nice upset in this one.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week:

Miami (-3) over BUFFALO

This is just an incredibly easy pick for me. I don't care that Miami has to travel to Buffalo. If it were December, that might be a factor, but not in week 1. Miami is just a much better team, and to cover three points shouldn't be a problem for them at all.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week:

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Oakland

This is almost too easy. Vegas doesn't realize how good the Titans are yet, and are overrating Oakland here. They still might be without their number one running back and I just don't see how they can stop Chris Johnson. Look for Tennessee to run all over them in an easy victory at home.

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

San Fransisco (-3) over SEATTLE

Really? Just three points? I know Seattle is historically a tough place to play, but really?? JUST THREE POINTS? San Fransisco rolls.

Can you Taste It?

2010-09-08T19:51:00.000-07:00

Ahhh finally. Its here. The day we have all been waiting for... Or at least the day I have been waiting for! The Super Bowl was a mere 7 months ago, but it has seemed like an eternity. Now its time to get my act together and start writing again. I've decided to scrap any hope of covering anything else, and just sticking to what I love to write about most, the NFL. As you can see, the blog has a new title, Geezer's Gridiron, and an all new background, the MAN Chris Johnson. He will be the poster boy of the blog for now, but that could change down the road. Hope you all enjoy the changes, and are looking forward to the season as much as I look forward to writing about it.

You know the drill. A complete division by division breakdown of how I expect the NFL season to play out (and of course, I will be wrong!) complete with team records, division winners, wild card spots, playoff match-ups and your eventual Super Bowl Champion!

And on that note, let's get on with the show!

AFC East

I start with, in my opinion, the most hotly contested division in football. The Patriots are no longer a dynasty, and are coming back down to the pack in their division. As this is happening, the Jets and Dolphins are getting better. New York has the league's best defense, especially now that Revis is signed. However, they also have one of the league's most absolutely God-Awful offenses. Can this team win with Mark Sanchez at the helm? Well they looked good in the playoffs, but had they not received two gifts in the last two weeks, they wouldn't have even made them. It will be very interesting to watch a team like the Patriots, who are the exact opposite with their high powered offense and lackluster defense battle these Jets. Who comes out on top?

But don't sleep on those Miami Dolphins. A good young Quarterback in Henne who now has a legitimate weapon to throw to in Brandon Marshall, a system under Tony Sparano that just works, an above average defense and a solid running game, this team will be as good as the other two in the division, and are certainly the most well rounded. They have every bit the chance the Jets and Patriots do of winning.

And well, the Bills.... they might just be the worst team in football this year. Better luck next year, and good luck in the draft!

Overall, I think this division comes down to the last week of the season, and eventually might even come down to some crazy tie-break scenarios, with the Jets taking it in the end:

New York Jets 10-6
New England Patriots 9-7
Miami Dolphins 9-7
Buffalo Bills 2-14

AFC North

Lots of interesting topics in this division, not the least of which being the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers. Even with his suspension reduced from 6 games to 4, it is still a major blow. On top of that, 3 of the 4 games he will miss are going to be very tough. Despite that opening stretch, I still think this team has enough to stay afloat and fight for a playoff spot down the final stretch.

Another off-season storyline out of the AFC North comes from Cincinnati: the acquisition of T.O. Well, I'm here to tell you that this is going to be a disaster. Not only because he is a major distraction, but mainly, because he has severely diminished skills. He is just too old at this point to have any kind of real impact on this team. That means it remains a running football team, and can Cedric Benson put up numbers like he did last year? I highly doubt it. He is bound to break down, along with the rest of the Bengals.

The Baltimore Ravens are the talk of the offseason, with their acquisition of Anquan Boldin, emerging superstar Joe Flacco now has a true number one to throw to, to go along with sure-handed Derrick Mason and ex-Bengal T.J. Houshmandzadeh, many have this team taking the leap to the next level, and count me among them. I love this team (and if you looked at any of my fantasy teams, you'd know how much). They are a complete football team. They really don't have a weakness. Ray Rice is elite already, and we will all be saying that about Flacco at season's end. This could be the best team in football, and I think they are the team to beat in the AFC.

And then there are the Cleveland Browns... like the Bills in the East, someone has to finish last. Jake Delhomme is NOT the answer, Cleveland fans.

Baltimore Ravens 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Cleveland Browns 3-13

AFC West

Oh the AFC West. I made the bold statement last season that if the Chargers didn't win the division, I would never make another NFL prediction again. And despite Denver jumping out to a 6-0 start, they still won. And, with the weaknesses all around the division, the Chargers should take the division again, but I'm not willing to make that bold statement again this year. There are some definite question marks with the San Diego team, but I'm not too worried. The division is still the weakest in the AFC, and the schedule is friendly. Even without Vincent Jackson, with Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Legadu Nanee (just a great name!) I still think Phillip Rivers will have plenty of weapons to spread the ball around to. He is still an elite talent, he will find the open man. On top of that, I love the draft pick of Ryan Mathews. This kid is the real deal, and you will see why right away, as he is slated to get the bulk of this year's carries for the Chargers. He is going to make Charger fans forget about the loss of the once great LT very soon.

As for the other teams in the division, they have graduated, from flaming turds, to mediocrity. I think the Chiefs will finish second in the division. They need to give Jamaal Charles the rock, because this kid is a stud. Forget about Thomas Jones, you can not continue to keep Charles down. With a full workload he could be a top 5 back. Matt Cassel has paired with old Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weiss seems like a good fit, at least on paper, and I think he will have a bounce back year in year two under this system. The defense remains questionable, but they will be better.

I think Denver remains about the same as last year. There are just too many questions left unanswered. Will Moreno bounce back from injury? Can Orton lead a team to a winning season? How will the team use Tim Tebow? Can they recover from last year's collapse. I think they have a good future ahead, but its just not in the cards this season for them.

The Oakland Raiders seem to be a dark horse pick to win some games this season now that JeMarcus Russell is out at quarterback, but my question is, "What did Jason Campbell ever win in Washington?" So yes, it is an upgrade, and they will get a couple extra wins, but they are not taking a leap out of the bottom of this division. They still have a long way to go. They need Michael Bush to get over his thumb injury fast, because he is the class of this team, and Darren McFadden is just terrible.

San Diego Chargers 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Denver Broncos 7-9
Oakland Raiders 4-12

AFC South

The division that houses my Tennessee Titans also houses the defending AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts. If you want to win the AFC, it runs through them, and it will be no easy task. Peyton Manning isn't getting worse any time soon, and he just has all new toys to play with in WRs Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, the return of Anthony Gonzalez, and oh yeah, two guys named Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. They couldn't run last year, but they didn't have to (well, not until the Super Bowl) and they will win games the same way this year. Expect another successful season from them, but one that may just be a disappointment considering...

The Titans are going to win the division. It will be close. It will be a battle. It will come down to the final game of the season. It will come down to a tiebreak of head to head matchups, and I believe the Titans take that tiebreak by beating the Colts TWICE. Yes, I am biased. But yes, this can definitely happen. There is a reason Chris Johnson is the Geezer's Gridiron poster boy, he is going to get 2500 yards this season. Barring injury, he is going to set records. The man is like lightning, and there is no catching him when he breaks away. I know the common theme is to state that the NFL is a passing game, and it is, but it is so because there are not very many Chris Johnson's in the league. Good luck stopping him. With a full season of Vince Young (who led this team to an 8-2 record last year, he is just a WINNER) along with a better defense, and a throwing game that will take a leap forward, this team is going to win the division and de-thrown the defending champs.

As for the rest of the division, I think the Texans are a clear third. High powered offense with a decent defense, but a difficult schedule makes for another nice 9-7 season. They haven't shown me any reason to believe they can make it to the playoffs, and I'm done believing that they can do it. Prove it, then I'll bite, Houston.

And the Jaguars are the distant fourth choice, and I think they will struggle and ultimately wind up finishing with another underwhelming season. Beyond MJD, this team doesn't have much of an offense, and the defense isn't all that great either.

Tennessee Titans 13-3
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 9-7
Jacksonville 5-11

NFC East

The NFC East houses another sexy Super Bowl pick, the host of Super Bowl XLV themselves, the Dallas Cowboys. Again, its easy to see why. They are loaded on both sides of the ball. I think they will have a fantastic regular season, as they usually do. The questions come, once again, once they reach the post season. They managed to win a game last year, and I just don't know if they can go any further this year. Do I trust Tony Romo, no, not really, and the NFC is pretty well loaded at the top this year. I don't think they get to host their own home Super Bowl, but I do think they win the division.

Their biggest competition, I believe, will come from the Philadelphia Eagles. Now I don't think the Eagles will be great, but they could be a sleeper. It all comes down to the play of Kevin Kolb. I'm sure he will have some games which will make you go "wow" and some where he just completely blows, and that should make for a very interesting season. There is a lot of young offensive talent on this team, they just might be a year or two away before they rise back to the top of the NFC.

The other two teams, well you know I'm no fan of the Giants, and although I think they have a great passing attack, the running game is awful and the defense is over-rated. They proved last year that they couldn't beat good teams, and they didn't do anything to impress me to make themselves better. Another mediocre performance.

And as for the Redskins... well... yes, they added Donovan McNabb, but what good will that be? They have a bevy of old, washed up running backs, an old, borderline washed up QB, not a very good defense, a tough division and non-divisional schedule. They will have another lost season, good luck in the draft.

Dallas Cowboys 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
New York Giants 7-9
Washington Redskins 5-11

NFC North

Remember last season, when I picked Green Bay to win it all? Yeah that didn't quite go as planned. Those pesky Minnesota Vikings got in the way, as well as the Arizona Cardinals (although that last play was a blatant facemask, but I digress). Well of those three teams, I believe only one is left standing this season, and it is the Green Bay Packers. They are just a complete football team, and healthy, they will be incredible again. Aaron Rodgers is ELITE in every sense of the word. They are only getting better with maturity and experience. They are going to dominate this division.

The team that gave them headaches last season is due for a huge fall. With the lack of Sidney Rice for half the season, an aging Brett Favre on a bad ankle that teams will be attacking all year and Percy Harvin dealing with migraine issues, they are not even a playoff team. I think Brett's streak of consecutive games started comes to an end this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he even gets knocked out of the season for good. Adrian Peterson can only carry an offense so far, and in a division with the Packers, they stand no chance.

As for the other two teams, I believe it will actually be a fight for third, rather than just penciling in the Lions for last again. Detroit is doing everything right to rebuild their team, and although I think they are at least 2 years away from competing, I think they are going to win some games this year. I love Stafford, love Jahvid Best, LOVE Calvin Johnson, and LOVE Ndamukong Suh. they are young, talented, and a couple of years away from being really good.

The Bears are this team that is just set up to perennially disappoint. They have Jay Cutler, the perennial disappointment quarterback. He is so much potential, but he has never been able to put it together. Matt Forte had a fantastic rookie year, then a MASSIVE disappointment in his second year (especially for fantasy purposes). The defense isn't what it used to be. I don't know what to make of them. They could go 2-14, or they could go 8-8, but I do think that is about their ceiling.

Green Bay Packers 13-3
Minnesota Vikings 7-9
Chicago Bears 6-10
Detroit Lions 5-11

NFC West

Oooh the NFC West... or the NFC Worst as I often call it.... yeah I know, that was bad, but so is this division! However, they do always seem to have one team that does well. Seattle and Arizona went to Super Bowls fairly recently, and this year, there is another team that has that kind of potential. That team is the San Francisco 49ers.

I had no faith in them going into last year. I thought they had no pass game, no Quarterback, a mediocre defense, and that Frank Gore couldn't put an entire team on his back. Well, Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis made me a true BELIEVER in this team. Couple that with the easiest schedule in football, and this team is a shoe in for the playoffs, and could be an absolute challenge to any team in the playoffs. Expect a huge leap in the level of this team. And the defense is anything but mediocre. I fully admit that I was completely wrong about this team.

As for the rest of the division, good luck is all I have to say. The Cardinals are the two time defending champs of the division, but they are now without their MVP QB Kurt Warner who retired, and it is up to Derek Anderson to lead the way. Forgive me if I'm not shuttering in fear. No Anquan Boldin is another massive blow to this team, and if it weren't for a fairly easy schedule, the fall could be DRASTIC. Hell it still might be. I'm not a Beanie Believer, and with only one offensive star (Larry Fitzgerald), I just don't know how they are going to win football games.

And its not like things get much better the deeper we go into this division... they get worse. Seattle has done nothing to say that they will be better than last year, if anything they are trying to get young in a hurry, which generally means a big drop off in immediate wins. Its going to be a rough start to the Pete Carroll Era.

As for the Rams... I'm going to say they win one more game this year. Maybe by 2016 they will be a .500 team. A rookie QB that could be good in the future, but now just has no one to throw to and I'm definitely not yet a believer. A star running back that can't stay healthy. A swiss cheese defense. The league's worst team, for the second straight year.

San Francisco 49ers 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 5-11
Seattle Seahawks 4-12
St. Louis Rams 2-14

NFC South

Home of your defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, and how sweet that victory was for New Orleans! Now the pattern has it that one team that makes the Super Bowl always fails to make the playoffs the next year. It is like clockwork. Never fails. So you know I picked the Colts to get one of the AFC Wild Card spots, so does that mean I am picking the Saints to miss the playoffs? Of course not!!! This is a Saints team that bucks the trend! Come on, they ruined the New Orleans history of sucking, why go back to that now? Drew Brees is too good a quarterback for this team to not make the playoffs. Plain and simple. Just having him on your team assures a spot. They should rule the roost in the NFC South once again.

The next two teams in this division intrigue me. Atlanta and Carolina both have young QBs looking to make a leap, they both have OUTSTANDING running games, they both have a stud Wide Receiver and they both have solid defenses. They will both be successful this season, and I think they will be fighting for the final NFC playoff spot when its all said and done. Who do I like more? Atlanta, but only slightly.

And then there is Tampa Bay. A team that can't run the ball, can't throw the ball, and can't stop anyone. Why am I wasting my breath on this team again? they were bad last year, and they might be even worse this year. I don't trust Josh Freeman, and I doubt I ever will.

New Orleans 13-3
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 3-13

So there you have it, my NFL division by division breakdown! But now for the good stuff! The predictions sure to go wrong!

AFC Round 1

Byes: Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens

Indianapolis Colts over New York Jets
San Diego Chargers over Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Round 1

Byes: Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints

San Fransisco 49ers over Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons

AFC Round 2

Tennessee Titans over San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts

NFC Round 2

Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys
San Fransisco 49ers over New Orleans Saints

AFC Championship

Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans

NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers over San Fransisco 49ers

And for your Super Bowl Champion.......

The Green Bay Packers

Yes, I know I picked them last year, and they let me down, but I am convinced that I was simply a year too early on them. It was going out on a bit of a limb last year, now its a "bandwagon" pick, but I have to stick with my guns. I love the Ravens almost as much, but I just don't think any team in football is as good in every aspect of the game as this Packers team. So for the second straight year, they are my pick.

So there you have it, my big, fat, Albert Haynesworth sized NFL preview and return to the blog. But before I go, one more thing.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5) over Minnesota Vikings

Get the year started on a good Gambling note folks! Hope you enjoyed my preview, and I hope to bring you plenty more where this came from. Good luck in week one, whether it be your team, your fantasy team, or your gambling habits! Until next time!

-Geezer

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2010-09-08T16:15:00.000-07:00

The Super Bowl

2010-02-06T11:51:00.001-08:00

Here it is. The biggest game of the year. In a rare case, this year's game has bestowed upon us the two teams that have actually proven to be the best two teams in football all season. The Saints and the Colts were the top two teams on my power rankings from week 5 to week 15, the vast majority of the NFL regular season. From potentially undefeated, to late season losses, to worries of Chargers, Eagles, Jets and Vikings, these two teams have proven their worth as the best in football. But that is all in the past. Now we get to the game itself. Who will win? And more importantly, why will they win?

And for that, you have turned to me, and my powers of prognostication. Whether that is smart or not, who knows, only time will tell. But I will at least offer up some facts that will back up my position, rather than simply speaking from the heart.

My pick: Saints 31 Colts 27

That's right, not only will the Saints cover the spread (currently at +4.5) but they will win the game. A lot of experts have said this goes against all common sense, but I'm here to defend my pick. So here we go. Geezer's reasons why the Saints will win the first ever Super Bowl in franchise history.

Reason #1:

Drew Brees is just as good as Peyton Manning. Yes, you heard me correctly. Everyone seems to be stating that the number one reason the Colts will win this game is because of Peyton Manning. Well has everyone forgotten just how good the guy on the other side of the ball is? Let’s just look at their numbers from this season.

Drew Brees: 4,388 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 109.8 QB rating, 70.6% completions

Peyton Manning: 4500 yards, 33, TDs, 16 INTs, 99.9 QB rating and 68.8% completions.

If you go over their last few seasons, Brees has been better than Manning, although slightly. Does that mean Brees is the better quarterback? I wouldn't say that, but I would say they are equal. Just because Peyton Manning has a Superbowl ring and destroyed the Jets defense last week does not put him leaps and bounds ahead of Drew Brees. Absolutely not. The QB advantage will be a non factor.

On top of that, I feel Brees will have a chip on his shoulder coming into this game. He has something to prove. He doesn't have a ring, and therefore will always be looked at as a second class citizen in NFL circles until he does. He has a lot to gain by winning this football game. Manning does too, of course, but he is already established as one of the best ever. The game means more to Drew Brees, and to the Saints as a whole, which brings me to reason number two.

Reason #2

The Saints will want this game more. Between the city of New Orleans binding together with this team after Hurricane Katrina, to the fact that this may be their one shot at Super Bowl glory in a city that has been mired in a Championship-less slump for their entire 43 years of existence. This game means more to this team. The Colts have been there. They have done that. They got their ring. This Saints team can not fall back on that. I believe this gives them an edge. They know that they may never get another chance. They may never be this good again. They will be motivated beyond anything we've seen before. This also comes from having a large edge in coaching, with Sean Payton, easily one of the best coaches in the game at this point. They will be fired up, with Who Dat Nation behind them. It will translate to the field. A lot of analysts have cited this as a bad thing, that they have no experience, well I'm of the belief that motivation is more important than experience. Which brings me to reason number three.

Reason #3

The "Nobody believes in us!" factor. This is the best motivator a team can have. When no one is picking your team to win, a good coach will never let his team forget it. They see it every day. They see Donovan McNabb and Tony Dungy predicting 17 point Colts blow outs. They see that 2/3 of the public believes the Colts will win. And that is even including all the Saints sympathy votes based on them being the team everyone "wants" to win. They see that they were 6 point underdogs at one point. They know that no one expects them to win this game. They will come out, as the Giants did in 2007, ready to shock the world and the so-called experts.

Reason #4

Dwight Freeney. The biggest storyline of the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl has, of course, been Dwight Freeney's ankle. Now they have said that it is getting better. However, I don't think they would say anything else. He is going to play, but I don't expect him to be close to 100%. This reduces the Colts' biggest defensive weapon to a mere mortal. Brees will have a lot more time to throw the ball against an already weak defense (more on that in a bit) and they will be much more capable of running the ball (more on that too!). Without Freeney on the edge, the pass rush suffers, which directly causes the secondary to suffer. Reggie Bush will be more effective as you don't need to worry about Freeney making too many open field tackles or chasing him down on the outside. This is a huge advantage for the Saints, and has already swung the line on this game a full point and a half. Freeney is the second most important player on the Colts (behind Manning of course) and without him at full strength, an already dynamic offense just got better.

Reason #5

The Saints have a MUCH more balanced offensive attack. The Colts are the most one-dimensional team in football. They were second in the league in passing attempts per game and second to last in rushing attempts per game. Now this has worked for them all season, obviously. They have been dead last in rushing all year and still went 14-2 and made the Super Bowl. But in a game like this, one dimensional teams can rarely overcome all the game planning that goes into the two weeks leading up to the Big Game. The Saints will have a plan to stop the Colts. There is no reason that they wouldn't give them the running game. Daring them to run the ball by dropping 6 or 7 defensive backs on every single play, or pass blitzing, as we know they already plan to do. They will not need to play the run, as the Colts do not run the ball. And if they can get the Colts off their game and make them start running the ball often, well that will be even better for them. It is a decided advantage for the Saints.

The Colts do not have this same advantage. The Saints had one of the most balanced attacks in the league. They barely threw the ball more than they ran in the regular season. They were 7th in rushing attempts per game with 29.2. They were 15th in passing attempts with 34 per game. This is why they have had such a dynamite offense. They are able to keep opposing defenses off balance. They don't know what is coming. They don't know where it is coming from. They have so many receivers that the other team has to watch out for: Colston, Meachem, Henderson, Shockey, David Thomas, Moore and the two running backs, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have proven to be great out of the backfield. Bush, although a big disappointment, still has the ability to break open a big play, as he showed against Arizona. And on top of that, Pierre Thomas is a great back! He is one of the most versatile in the game, whether it be swing routes out of the backfield or punching it up the middle, he is reliable. This balance that the Saints bring to their offense will be very difficult for the Colts to stop. They had trouble stopping Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets for a whole half in the AFC championship game. How exactly are they going to keep the Saints off the board?

Reason #6

The Saints defense is not that bad. Or, more importantly, is not much worse than that of the team they are playing, the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, the Vikings made the Saints look awful in the NFC Championship game, but I like to put more stake into how a team plays all year rather than one game. Let’s compare the two defenses:

New Orleans Saints: 235.6 Passing y/g, 15 passing TDs allowed, 28 INTs, 122.6 Rushing y/g, 19 Rushing TDs allowed, 3 Fumbles Forced (but 5 just last week, as we recall)

Indianapolis Colts: 212.7 Passing yards/g, 19 Passing TDs allowed, 16 INTs, 126.5 Rushing y/g, 10 Rushing TDs allowed, 5 Fumbles Forced

So what can we take away from these numbers? Well the Saints did give up 23 more passing yards per game. However, in the touchdown department, they gave up fewer than the Colts through the air. In fact, they were 5th in the league in passing TDs allowed. It was very difficult for teams to punch the ball in the end zone through the air against this defense, which is the Colts bread and butter. They also grabbed TWELVE more interceptions than the Colts, a stat that I think is crucial. This defense is a bunch of ball hawks. They are very good at picking off routes and if they can get one or two from Manning (16 on the season to Brees' 11), that could be crucial.

The Saints have allowed quite a few rushing yards per game, as have the Colts. They have allowed many more rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Colts, they can not run the ball. They only had 16 rushing touchdowns all season, so they will most likely be unable to take advantage of this. Basically speaking, the Colts do not match up well to take advantage of the Saints deficiencies on Defense. They will get their points, but it should not be enough to overcome their own problems on defense. I think it is crazy to site New Orleans' defense as a major factor for why the Colts will win the game. Just look at the numbers people, they tell it all.

Reason #7

I wanted to get this list up to lucky number 7, and for my 7th reason, I am going to use my own heart. It is very difficult for me to pick against it. It is my only reason that I can't justifiably back up. There are no facts behind it, no logic. Just a gut feeling and a hope. I will be pulling for this team to win tomorrow. I want to see them win it for New Orleans. I want to see the Colts go down. So for my lucky number 7th reason, I am choosing the team that I want to win the game. And is that really so bad?

Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say they gonna beat them Saints??? No one. That's who. Go Saints.

Help Me New Orleans Saints, You're My Only Hope

2010-01-22T09:51:00.000-08:00

With both of the teams I picked to go to the Super Bowl knocked out, and having some level of disgust for three of the teams remaining in the Super Bowl hunt, the New Orleans Saints have become my last saving grace for a rooting interest in the Super Bowl.

Lets start by breaking down the other three teams, in order of least amount of hatred, to most:

The New York Jets- Definitely my least amount of hatred of the three, but being a Red Sox fan, its just hard for me to root from any team from New York. I hate New York. I hate the people, I hate the city, they are arrogant and treat most people like lesser human beings and this team embodies the city. Rex Ryan has been cocky from day one since showing up in New York, bringing a bravado that this city embraces. If the Jets seemed more humble, I'd have less of a problem rooting for them. I also only picked them to win three games this year, so they have that working against them. But I will definitely be cheering for them to beat the...

Indianapolis Colts- a team that I have hated for many years, as they are the Titans division rivals. I respect the hell out of Peyton Manning, but that doesn't mean I have to like him. I've had to watch them succeed while the Titans have failed and I'm getting sick of it. Not to mention this team gave the old "F you!" to their fans by deciding not to pursue an undefeated season and laying down in the last two games. And that just screams of cowardice to me. Any team that shows that kind of blatant disregard for their fans is not ok in my book. Speaking of blatant disregard for fans...

Minnesota Vikings- not a disregard to Vikings fans, but disregard to Packers fans for Brett Favre. The greatest slap in the face from one player to his legions of devoted fans in the history of professional sports. How can anyone root for this guy? Never mind all the gushing we've had to put up with over the years from John Madden and just about every other analyst. If this guy wins a Super Bowl, it will be like dropping an atomic bomb on the state of Wisconsin. I have hated him ever since his first flip flopping show when he went and signed with the Jets, but that was nowhere near as much of an atrocity as what he has done this year with division rival Minnesota. I don't particularly have anything against this team, but as long as Favre is their QB, I will be pulling as hard as I can against them. And does anyone really want to deal with the media frenzy for two weeks that will come from a Favre Super Bowl? Which is why I say that my only hope this year, for a Super Bowl that I can enjoy, are the New Orleans Saints.

The New Orleans Saints have been a long suffering franchise that has never won a Super Bowl, and is only a few years removed from the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina. They have a quarterback in Drew Brees that I have loved for a long time, that I think throws the prettiest ball in football, and needs to validate himself in the eyes of everyone that thinks you have done nothing until you have a ring. They have an outstanding fanbase and they show it every time they are at home in the Super Dome. This is a team I can get behind.

So of course, just based on the fact that I want them to win so bad, and would feel so dirty that I couldn't live with myself, I am picking the Saints (-3.5) to handle the Vikings this weekend.

And on the other side, I'm taking the Jets (+8) to upset the Colts. The Jets, on paper, should lose this game. But on paper, the Packers should have beaten the Cardinals, and the Bengals and Chargers also should have beaten the Jets. This team has the football Gods on their side. The Colts are the team that laid down in their first matchup, allowing this very Jets team to make the playoffs, and go on this run. All they had to do was actually try to win in week 16, and the Jets do not even make the postseason. This is really bad Karma. On top of that, everyone will be backing the Colts in this game, which hasn't been a good thing so far this year (actually, it never is, this is why Vegas stays in business). So because of this, I am picking the Jets, with the Karmic Gods on their side, to knock out the Colts, who chose to let them into the playoffs.

Jets. Saints. Super Bowl XLIV. And you know who I'll be rooting for. Who Dat!

NFL Playoffs: Round 2

2010-01-14T09:54:00.000-08:00

Ever been punched in the stomach? I was this weekend. Now the Packers, who I have steadfastly supported all year long, were in the process of being blown out. I'm sure you all watched as they crawled back into the game, using skill and outstanding play calling that included a brilliant onside kick. Greg Jennings made a couple of circus catches that kept them in the game. But all of this was just a set up for the stomach punch.

After tying the game and forcing overtime (after Rackers missed a 34 yard field goal attempt that would have won it for the Cardinals, the ultimate tease) the Packers had the ball. Well, we all know what happened. A tuck rule type fumble that was kicked up inadvertently into the air by Aaron Rodgers, intercepted and returned for the winning score. Crazy. Now of course, 2 plays earlier the refs misses a helmet to helmet hit call on the QB. That very play they missed a very obvious facemask call. Did the Cardinals deserve to win that game? Yes, absolutely. Both teams played their hearts out (well the offenses anyway), the problem wasn't who won, its how it happened. It was completely gut-wrenching, and it could have been averted, if everything was made reviewable by the NFL. They are afraid of slowing down the game. I am afraid of not getting the call right. Which do you think fans are more concerned with?

So with that, the Packers were eliminated. I will take a good long look at this team and might very well pick them again next year. I just think they are set up for greatness. They had a championship caliber team, but injuries and a stomach punch game were all it took to knock them off. Such is the case with any NFL team, and that's why they play the games. On to round 2.

Ravens at Colts

I am going to be rooting for the Ravens the rest of the way, which I think will probably only last this game. I have a huge man-crush on Ray Rice, love Flacco, Derrick Mason is an ex-Titan that I have a ton of respect for and I hate the Colts. Of course I am going to be pulling for this team! However, unless the Colts suffer from the "rust" side of the rest vs rust argument, I think they will be able to win the game. But it should be closer than people think. I'll take the points, Ravens (+7).

Jets at Chargers

I have to say the Chargers will win the Super Bowl now. I could only have seen Green Bay stopping them and now, its time for Phillip Rivers, LT and the gang to get their Super Bowl. I think they roll through the Jets by bombarding them all day with their aerial attack. Chargers (-9).

Cowboys at Vikings

This is the marquis matchup of the weekend. I can't wait for it. The Cowboys got the big playoff monkey off their back and prove to be one of the hottest teams in football. On the other side, Minnesota stumbled into the playoffs and who knows how well Favre is holding up. I hate to root for the Cowboys, but I hate Brett Favre even more. I'm going with the hot hand of Tony Romo over old Brett. Cowboys (+3)

Cardinals at Saints

This one could be just as much of a shootout as the Packers/Cardinals game of last week. I don't really know who to pick, so I will stick with my theory of riding the hot hand and take the Cardinals. I don't think there will be a hangover from the week before. If anything, they will be fired up. I don't know if they can win, I think so, but I'm not certain. Either way it will be close, and they are getting 7 points, so I am all over Cardinals (+7).

That will do it for me this week. See you around next week for the Championship round! And of course, the Super Bowl in 3 weeks!

The Playoffs

2010-01-08T13:10:00.000-08:00

After that BS "championship" game in college football last night, I am just so eager for some real football. I'm pumped up for Wildcard Weekend. If anyone wants to know how I did in week 17 for picks, I went 7-9. But enough about that, here is my big Playoff Preview...

AFC Round 1

Ravens at Patriots

The Patriots are 3 point favorites at home against the Ravens, but with the loss of Wes Welker, their best player all season, I have to take the Ravens in this game. I like this Ravens team a lot. I like Flacco as a promising young QB on the rise and Ray Rice is an absolute stud. I can't see the Patriots stopping Rice for 4 quarters, not with their defensive problems. Although the Ravens defense isn't what it used to be, it is still pretty damn good. If Welker was healthy, I think it would be a different story, but Belichick made the bonehead decision to start his starters in a meaningless game. If they were going for undefeated, you play them, if not, you rest them. That game meant nothing, and I think it very well might have cost them their season.

Jets at Bengals

Two teams that I don't really feel deserve to be here, and either one doesn't have a chance in round two, which makes it tough to pick. The Bengals are at home and are 3 point favorites, but again, I like the underdog. I'm not going to factor in the Jets beating down the Bengals last week, because I don't think the Bengals were trying, but the Jets are just playing far superior football. The Bengals have not played well in a long time. The Jets do have a rookie quarterback, and that is a very strong negative factor, but what do the Bengals do that is really good? They have one receiver who will be locked down by Revis. They have a banged up running back and a banged up defense. I just can't see them putting up any points. The Jets have my pick, despite Mark Sanchez.

NFC Round 1

Eagles at Cowboys

I want to pick the Eagles. They have been one of my favorite teams all year long. The Cowboys have a really bad track record in opening round games. It is difficult to beat a team three in a row in the same season. The Eagles have Desean Jackson who can beat anyone by himself. I just can't take this Cowboys team under Wade Phillips in the playoffs until they show me something. They can both put up a lot of points, and it should stay close, but I can't go against one of my favorites this whole year, despite Dallas' success against them this year. The Eagles get my pick at +4.

Packers at Cardinals

If you have been following me all season, you should know that I have picked the Packers in every week of the season. I am a Titans fan, but Green Bay has been my adopted team all year. I picked them to win the Super Bowl. I bet them to win the Super Bowl before the season. I think they are an excellent team that can beat anyone. They can score on the ground and through the air. Their O-Line is playing much better in the second half of the season. Aaron Rodgers has developed as the season has gone on, and is taking fewer sacks and making better decisions. They are the hottest team in the NFC. I love the Packers, despite the fact that they are playing a very good Cardinals team. I can't jump ship now.

AFC Round 2

Ravens at Colts
Jets at Chargers

I don't think either of these games are particularly close. The Jets get blown out and the Ravens lose by a touchdown. The Colts and Chargers are just so much better than everyone else in the AFC. I hope this happens, because it should be a terrific game

NFC Round 2

Eagles at Saints

This is where I think the Eagles run out of steam. I know the Saints have struggled, but they are almost exactly like the Eagles, only a little better at everything. Saints prove their season wasn't a total fluke.

Packers at Vikings

You know what I'm going to say here. I can't pick against my Packers and it is a joyous occasion to pick against Brett Favre. The Packers were humiliated in their last matchup, but this is a completely different Packers team. Favre is falling off the map just as he did last year. The story is very different in the third meeting. Rodgers gets his own vindication.

AFC Championship

Chargers at Colts

I have to take the hot hand, the Chargers, to dismantle the Colts. This is where the fact that the Colts chose to lose their edge in the final two weeks that it hurts them. It will be impossibly difficult for anyone to beat this Chargers team. They just do everything well. The x factor, of course, is Peyton Manning. He is so good under pressure and can will his team to win. He is the best player in the league at this point and is the clear-cut MVP. If they are going to beat the balance of the Chargers, their leader has to come up big, and he definitely can. I think the Chargers win a very close game.

NFC Championship

Packers at Saints

If someone knocks off the Packers, it will be the Saints. However, I don't see it happening. They are just so hot at the right time. What more can I really say about them? I love the team, and I can't pick against them.

The Super Bowl

Packers vs. Chargers

I can't express to you how excited I would be about this game. The Chargers would be a pretty nice sized favorite. The Packers would be the fiery underdog. I'd have a lot to gain by the Packers winning (both in pride and in money). It would give me something to root for. Norv Turner could ruin the season for the Chargers. I think the teams match up evenly across the board. Lots of points would be scored. The two best young quarterbacks in the game, who are going to carry the league for quite a few years. It would just be an outstanding game that comes down to Rivers vs. Rodgers, and I like Rodgers. Packers win. I stick with my preseason pick. I can't wait to watch, and I bet you can't either!

Week 16 NFL Picks

2009-12-27T07:57:00.000-08:00

Two weeks to go, need to rebound from last week!. Here we go!

Kansas City (+13.5) over CINCINNATI
Too many points for Cincinnati.
Oakland (+3.5) over Cleveland
Two bad teams, take the points.
GREEN BAY (-14) over Seattle
If Tampa can cover this spread in Seattle, Green Bay better be able to do it at home. They are still playing for something.
MIAMI (-3) over Houston
One team's playoff hopes end today. I say its Houston.
Jacksonville (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville always seems to keep it close, and New England is not the Patriots of old.
Tampa Bay (+14) over NEW ORLEANS
Will Brees play the whole game? I'm not sure, and 14 is a lot of points to give Tampa who is actually playing well lately.
Carolina (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Carolina impressed me last week. Minnesota is better than New York, so I'll stick with the Panthers under Matt Moore.
Baltimore (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
The hopes to repeat end today for the Steelers.
ARIZONA (-14) over ST. LOUIS
Worst team up against one of the best.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over New York Jets
Tough to say if the Colts will play their starters, but I think they do at least long enough to hold off the Jets and end their playoff hopes once and for all.
Denver won't be able to hang with a very legit Eagles team
Dallas (-6.5) over WASHINGTON
After last week, Washington showed me they have given up on the season entirely.
CHICAGO (+7) over Minnesota
Brett Favre in cold weather is why I like Chicago to cover in this one.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Denver

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Buffalo (+9) over ATLANTA
Atlanta is giving too many points

Lock of the Week
Detroit (+12.5) over San Francisco
Detroit played Arizona tough, I say they do the same, and may even pull off the upset in this one.

Last Week: 5-10-1
Overall: 117-103-3
Lock Picks: 24-21

Can't wait for it to start!

And then there was one

2009-12-23T14:02:00.000-08:00

One lone unbeaten team. The Indianapolis Colts. The team that is notorious for resting its starters is bringing up all kinds of questions of whether they will do that this year, being undefeated. Should they? Absolutely not. Not only do they have a chance to go undefeated, but the resting starter argument doesn't hold water. You want a hot team going into the playoffs. They clinched a bye, so that will be plenty of rest. Going in undefeated, with a guy like Peyton Manning, is a huge edge, and they should go for it. That said, I do not think they are the best team in football, and do not think they make the Super Bowl.

The Elite
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. San Diego Chargers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Minnesota Vikings

So you know how I feel about the Colts, but the Chargers are the team making the leap. They beat a good Bengals team that was playing inspired by Chris Henry. They match up so well with the Colts. They are deadly. Gun to my head, the Chargers knock off the Colts in the AFC title game. However, I think it is absolutely wide open in both leagues, which is why the Contenders group is really inching closer and closer to matching the Elite. The difference between Minnesota and Green Bay (number 6 on my list) is not nearly as big as it used to be.

The Eagles made the jump this week into the Elite, and it is where they belong. They are an incredibly explosive offense, thanks in large part to superstar in making Desean Jackson. They have the defense to hold off other teams just enough to outscore them, and I wouldn't be surprised for one moment to see them make a run at the Super Bowl. I said preseason and I'm sticking to it, they are one of the most complete teams in football.

The Vikings got slaughtered by a bad Panthers team, and the sad part is, I was never really surprised. Brett Favre is just being Brett Favre, and that is never a good thing. He's making it all about him, forcing the ball up there in bad decisions, and proving that he runs the show, as he argues with the guy that is supposed to be in charge of the team. This does not bode well for them going forward, and I love it. If Favre torpedoes this team in the playoffs, it will be the biggest self gratifying moment I've had in a long time.

The Contenders
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. New England Patriots
11. Tennessee Titans
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Denver Broncos

Green Bay lost a heartbreaker to the clutchness of Ben Roethlisberger, but that doesn't mean I didn't like they way they played. They should role over the Seahawks next week in a bounce back game, and finish strong with a win over Arizona to remain hot going into the playoffs. At least thats what I think will happen.

Dallas jumps three spots after stunning the Saints on Saturday night. I really didn't think they had a shot in this one. I was wrong. I was wrong a lot this weekend. I just didn't think the December Cowboys were going to go into the Superdome and beat this Saints team. They showed a lot of toughness that I hadn't previously seen before, and I no longer think they are a lock for another first round playoff exit.

The Patriots and Cardinals are just about even to me. Both have the offenses to stand up with anyone, but they also both have tremendous matchup problems with a lot of the teams ahead of them. I wouldn't bet on them, because its hard to trust teams with so little defense, but on any given day (when Randy Moss tries anyway) they can just blow a team away. If they met, I'd take the home. They are just very close.

The Titans don't have the tiebreakers to make the playoffs, which breaks my heart, because they would be so dangerous if they got in. They get those vaunted Chargers on Christmas, and if they win, it will be even more depressing knowing that this team can beat anyone in football. And I really think they have a serious chance.

The Broncos just don't make any sense. They can show up one week and totally bomb the next. Look for a very fast exit from the playoffs from them. This is the team the Patriots and Bengals should want to face, because the other team, the Baltimore Ravens, are looking a lot more like a serious problem for those teams.

The Mediocre
14. New York Giants
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Miami Dolphins
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Jets
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Atlanta Falcons
21. Carolina Panthers
22. San Fransisco 49ers

I'll start with the New York Giants, who appear to be well on their way to 9-7, like I predicted when they were 5-0. This team blew the Redskins right out of the Mediocre and back into the awful. Washington just didn't show up for this game, so I don't know what that says about the Giants. I just know that they are the only team in the Mediocre with a legit shot at the playoffs, but they won't get there as the Cowboys and Packers stand in their way.

Most of these other teams are members of the AFC's "7-7" club. The Dolphins, Steelers, Texans, Jets and Jaguars are all 7-7. They join the one legitimate 7-7 team, the Titans, in the group clinging in desperation to playoff hopes. The problem is, there are only 2 teams that can get Wild Card spots, and I think the Ravens will lock one up. So it really comes down to tiebreakers for the teams that win their final 2 games and go 9-7. I know my Titans don't have the divisional record. Neither do the Steelers, Texans, Jets or Jaguars. The other team will come down to the Broncos or the Dolphins. Miami has the Texans and Steelers left on their schedule, and if they win those two games, they have a shot at catching the Broncos. I don't think they win those two games, so the Broncos hold on, unless they lose to the Chiefs at home, a team they very recently blew out. The Ravens and the Broncos are your AFC Wild Card teams, and only one can make it out of the first round. As I said earlier, the Patriots and Bengals better hope they get Denver and not Baltimore.

The Awful
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Chicago Bears
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Wshington Redskins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Detroit Lions
32. St. Louis Rams

Sigh. Only one remaining team with one win. Can the Rams pull it off? I don't know how the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks, but that is why you always take the points in a matchup between two awful teams. Sigh (again, for not taking my own advice).

And for the Friday night game, I have to take my team, the TITANS (-3)over Chargers. Go Titans!

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!

My apologies for my absense!

2009-12-18T20:04:00.000-08:00

Between visiting my girlfriend and massive internet connection problems, I haven't been able to post in over a week. For thos interested, I went 9-7 in picks last week and 3-0 with locks (Philly, San Diego and Green Bay). I have no idea how long I will have internet, so I'm going to post a quick power rankings and picks, no analysis just lists. I'm sorry guys and gals for the absense and briefness. Hopefully I get this straightened out for next week. And for my friends who drove 6 hours to Buffalo for the Pats/Bills game without the tickets, you are truly, truly stupid. Love you guys.

The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Minnesota Vikings

The Contenders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. New England Patriots
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Denver Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Tennesee Titans

The Mediocre
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
16. New York Jets
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Giants
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Washington Redskins
22. San Fransisco 49ers
23. Carolina Panthers

The Awful
24. Chicago Bears
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Buffalo Bills
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Detroit Lions
32. St. Louis Rams

And for this week's picks:
I got Indianapolis (-3) right
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Dallas
BUFFALO (+7) over New England
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Miami
KANSAS CITY (-1.5) over Cleveland
Atlanta (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
San Fransisco (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Chicago
DENVER (-14) over Oakland
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over Cincinnati
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA (+9) over Minnesota
WASHINGTON (+3) over New York Giants

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Houston (-13) over ST. LOUIS

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Arizona (-12.5) over DETROIT

Lock Of The Week
Green Bay (+1.5) over PITTSBURGH

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 112-93-2
Lock Picks: 23-19

Rest in peace Chris Henry. And more importantly, Rest in peace to my cousin Justin who also passed away this week. They were both 26, and both are nothing short of a tragedy.

The State of the NFL: Week 14

2009-12-09T14:36:00.000-08:00

Week 13 was a pretty boring week in the NFL. There were only about four or five games that mattered, and I'll cover them all, but the rest of the games were just kinda blah. Here comes the list!

The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Minnesota Vikings

Out of these teams, the Colts looked the best by far this week. They played a red hot Titans team and pulled out a tough win. The Titans were able to hang with them, and in my opinion, easily could have won this game. The Colts simply would not allow it to happen. That is why they are one of the NFL's Elite teams.

The Saints remain on top, but it took a miracle to keep them there. They were outplayed by the Redskins for the entire game, and it took a few questionable calls and a missed 23 yard field goal to get the win. I said last week that the Saints would go undefeated, and it looked as if I would be wrong one week after that prediction. Now, I am ten times more certain that they will finish the season without a loss. They look like a team of destiny. They have almost no one to challenge them (we'll get to those Cowboys later) and they pull out wins like this. No one is beating them, and I have to say it looks like no one is beating the Colts either at this point, but I'm more reluctant for them because we know they will rest their players, while I think the Saints go for it to the end.

The Vikings got shellacked by the Cardinals. Thoroughly dominated in every way. I can't tell you how bad they looked. The great Adrian Peterson was held to 19 yards. Brett Favre looked like the Brett Favre of old. Is this a sign of a rapid decline in December like we saw from Favre last season? It might be, but its too soon to tell. The Cardinals just played out of their minds on Sunday night.

The Contenders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. New England Patriots
11. Denver Broncos
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Jacksonville Jaguars

There are starting to be some really dangerous teams in this tier. The difference between the Contenders and the Elite is the smallest it has been all season. San Diego and Cincinnati each had easy games this week and handled them. The Packers managed to knock off the Ravens on Monday night in an absolutely horrendous game marred by penalties and bad turnovers. However, I really like my pre-season pick to win the Superbowl entering the playoffs. They are peaking at exactly the right time. Watch out for them.

The Cardinals and Eagles both won convincingly. The Cardinals crushed the Vikings, as I said before, and Philly took a beat up Falcons team and absolutely dominated them. Philly gets Brian Westbrook and Desean Jackson back this week and they are another team I really liked going into the season that I am fully back on their bandwagon. Look for them to beat down the New York Giants this weekend and cement their place at the top of the NFC East.

The Patriots, Cowboys and Titans all lost their games and so they take a tumble. New England is being obliterated by poor coaching. I have no idea what Bellichick is thinking these days, but its not good. They need to turn it around and win their last 4 games if they want to be taken seriously. They are in crisis mode right now. I think they can right the ship, but they need a change, and fast.

The Cowboys lost and start their December slide. Romo had a terrific game, so it's really not his fault. It might be in their heads, I have no idea, I can't explain it, but it's certainly real. I'd be scared to trust this Cowboys team the rest of the way, and they are looking squarely at a first round exit from the playoffs, again.

The Titans take a big step backward in their playoff hopes with their loss to Indy. The best they can do is 9-7, so they would need to win out and get some help. However, that doesn't mean they don't belong in this tier. They lost to a fantastic football team and could definitely finish 9-7. It's really depressing that they lost those 6 Kerry Collins games, especially when some of them were so close. Its looking like this is a playoff team that won't make the playoffs, whereas the Jaguars, who are newcomers to the tier, are in the driver's seat to get in, even though they are a worse football team.

The Mediocre
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
17. New York Jets
18. New York Giants
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Houston Texans
21. Washington Redskins
22. Carolina Panthers
23. San Fransisco 49ers
24. Oakland Raiders

I changed the name of the tier because there is no word that describes these teams better. The big news comes from the two additions at the top of the tier. The Ravens and Steelers are no longer contenders. Joe Flacco has been completely shaken. The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, especially with the injuries it has suffered to key players Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. They are not going anywhere, and with the outside chance they get into the playoffs, I would bet they get blown out.

Same goes for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but for one reason and one reason only: Troy Polamalu. His injury has destroyed this defense. Their offense is even better than it was last year when it one the Super Bowl, but the defense is a shadow of itself. Losing this guy has the same type of impact on the Steelers' defense as losing Peyton Manning would to the Colts' offense. He is that important. He will never win an MVP because they never give them to defensive players, but he should definitely be more considered.

We do have one new addition from a team rising up from the Awful. The mediocre would love to welcome the Oakland Raiders, who definitely play the part of a middle of the road team under Bruce Gradkowski. Can we give JaMarcus Russell the Least Valuable Player award yet, or do we have to wait til the end of the season?

The Awful
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Chicago Bears
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Detroit Lions
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Cleveland Browns

The Bears, although they won, fall into the Awful, because they were playing the Rams and they looked bad against them. The freaking Rams. A team that had playoff hopes coming into the season is relegated to being amongst the Lions and the Browns this year. So much for the Jay Cutler era.

That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed. As always, feel free to leave comments or e-mail me with questions. Until next time.

Week 13 NFL Picks

2009-12-05T11:56:00.000-08:00

Its crunch time in the NFL. Only 5 weeks remain. The term "must-win" is thrown around all year, but now its actually starting to mean something. Now is the time every team wants to start peaking. Its also a crucial time for your NFL pick'em pools. If you are still close to the top, you are running out of time to catch the front runners. You need to start nailing picks, going 10-6 or better. I have had a pretty solid season so far against the spread, but I know I can improve. I hope to start with week 13, so here we go:

Philadelphia (-5.5) over ATLANTA
Overall, I think the Eagles are a better team than the Falcons. Both teams are missing crucial offensive weapons, but the Falcons are missing their leader and resort to starting Chris Redman. They will also be without one of the league's best rushers in Michael Turner, who reinjured his ankle last weekend. The Atlanta secondary is downright awful, and I think that will be the difference in this one, as Donovan McNabb and company have a big game, and win by at least a touchdown.

St. Louis (+9.5) over CHICAGO
I never thought I'd see the day. The day the St. Louis Rams were printed in bold in this column. However, no one in the league should be getting this many points against the hapless Chicago Bears. St. Louis is still playing hard. If Stephen Jackson is available and effective in this game, I think the Rams could even win outright. Chicago is really that bad. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games. It should be a high scoring game, as both can';t stop anyone, but the Rams should at least keep this a one score game, so give me those points.

CINCINNATI (-13.5) over Detroit
Detroit can not stop anyone. Not through the air or on the ground. They can score some points, but so can the Bengals. I know Cinci has shown that they sometimes come up short against bad teams, but I can't see it happening again here. With Benson back, they can control this one and play however they want. I expect an easy blowout win.

Tennessee (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS
I mentioned in my recap column how I thought the Titans would end the Colts perfect season and I'm not going to back out of that now. Tennessee knows they are playoff contenders and are playing with confidence. They also know they have no margin for error if they want that dream to come true. The Colts, on the other hand, have played a few games in a row that they should have lost, but relied on Peyton Manning pulling out a great comeback. That can work against Houston, not against this Titans team. You can pretty much pencil in Chris Johnson for one huge play a game, and Vince gets better every week. This is the week the Colts taste defeat, and I don't think they have a problem with that because no one is really chasing them for home field. The Titans may not be better, they are simply hungrier.

Denver (-5) over KANSAS CITY
Just too much going for Denver to take the underdog in this one. They have had a 10 day layoff to rest up to take on a defense that can't stop anybody. They looked very impressive against the Giants, a team better than the Chiefs. I know the Chiefs are at home, a place where Denver has historically struggled, but in no way can I see them winning this game. The only thing they have had going for them is Jamal Charles, who should have another nice game, but I can't see that toppling the Broncos here.

Oakland (+14.5) over PITTSBURGH
Just too many points to give to the Steelers, who haven't played great football of late. I don't see them throwing much and think this should be a low scoring affair, maybe a 17-6 type game, but that would get Oakland the cover, especially if Big Ben needs to sit another game out.

New Orleans (-9.5) over WASHINGTON
I learned not to pick against the league's best team last week. I certainly won't make that mistake again.

Tampa Bay (+5) over CAROLINA
Carolina marches out rookie quarterback Matt Moore for his first game ever this week, which should mean a healthy dose of the run game. It should also mean a close game against the Bucs, who look rejuvenated and much better under fellow rookie QB Josh Freeman. The Bucs can certainly win this game with a big day from Cadillac Williams, like he had the last time these teams met, so I will take the underdog plus the points.

JACKSONVILLE (+1.5) over Houston
Houston can't win when they need to. Houston has no Steve Slaton. Jacksonville needs this game just as much as Houston does. Jacksonville is at home. Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew. I like the Jags to end Houston's season (so much for that prediction, I didn't think they would be this bad at closing out games).

SEATTLE (+1.5) over San Fransisco
Seattle still always plays better at home. San Fransisco hasn't had any sort of success on the road this season. Its a battle of teams that I don't think can call themselves good. I'll take the home field advantage in this one, as San Fransisco lets down.

Minnesota (-3) over ARIZONA
I'm not terribly confident about this one, but how can you pick against the Vikings at this point? Plus, Arizona may or may not have Kurt Warner and they have struggled at home, so Minnesota it is.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore
Green Bay is peaking at the right time and Baltimore isn't as good as they were a year ago. I don't think they are a playoff team. Green Bay certainly is. I love what Aaron Rodgers will do in this one, and definitely think he'll lead his team to victory number eight on the season. This game will be fun to watch, and will definitely show us exactly which direction these teams are headed.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-14) over CLEVELAND
A team knocking on the door of being elite against the worst team in the NFL. I'm not concerned about anything Cleveland could throw at them. San Diego wins easily just like they did last week against the Chiefs.

First Runner Up Lock of the week
New England (-4.5) over MIAMI
If Buffalo can beat Miami, so can the Patriots. This line should be higher.

Lock Of The Week
Dallas (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
This is an easy pick for me. Dallas is just simply a much better football team and Vegas continues to overrate the Giants, even as they prove again and again that they can't beat anyone that has any kind of talent at all. Cowboys avenge that crazy luck filled win the Giants got earlier in the year, easily.

Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall: 96-77-2
Lock Picks: 20-16

I love how I am exactly as good at hitting lock picks as I am at hitting everything else, hitting each at 55.5%. You probably shouldn't give them any more weight than any other game if you follow my picks each week!

NFL Recap: Week 13

2009-12-03T10:00:00.000-08:00

The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Minnesota Vikings

And then there were three. With the Saints thoroughly dismantling the Patriots on Monday night, they knock the Patriots out of the league's elite. They exposed every weakness the Patriots have. Their defense could do nothing in that environment, much as they have done all year on the road. Tom Brady looked flustered and made several poor decisions. Bill Belichick isn't using proper football sense anymore; he may have lost his mind. The Patriots fall out of the top tier.

On the other side, the Saints firmly cemented their place at the top. They are going undefeated if they want to. I can't see anyone beating this team at full strength. Their toughest test is Dallas, but Dallas is notorious for struggling in December, plus the game is in New Orleans. The Saints shouldn't have trouble with the Cowboys. I can't see a single team knocking them off in the regular season.

The Colts looked shaky in the first half of their game with the Texans, but they were never rattled. They came back strong, as Peyton Manning continues his MVP campaign and won the game rather easily. They can not do this against the Titans if they expect to remain undefeated, but more on that later.

The Vikings move into third place by beating up the bad news Bears. Brett Favre continues to disprove the doubters (myself included) by not throwing his trademark interceptions. Can the over-40 QB continue this for nine more weeks? Time will tell. Tough test with Arizona coming up this week.

The Contenders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. New England Patriots
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Arizona Cardinals
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. Denver Broncos

The Chargers move into the four slot with another outstanding performance. They are one of the most dangerous offenses in football now that LT is actually giving them something. They are very close to joining the big three with how they are playing. They can hang with anyone in football, even if this was against the lowly Chiefs.

Two games took place between teams in this tier, the first of which being the Titans vs. the Cardinals. With Kurt Warner out, the Cardinals turned to Matt Leinart to lead them to victory against Vince Young and the surging Titans. In a game that mirrored the 2006 Rose Bowl, Vince Young once again led his team down the field for the game winning score. This was probably the most excited I have been while watching a football game in my lifetime. I was jumping, screaming, high-fiving. It was awesome. This is the type of thing that can take an already inspired team to another level. There is no denying the skill and leadership it takes to drive a team 99 yards down the field to win a game. Vince is a leader. Chris Johnson is a superstar and Kenny Britt doesn't get enough love amongst the good rookie wide-outs. He should after that game winning catch. This is the one team (other than the Saints, of course) that no one should want to see on their schedule. They are on a mission for 10-6. They are well coached, their defense is playing like an entirely different team than they were 6 weeks ago. They are going to take down the Colts this weekend. They need this game so much more, and the Colts almost act as if a loss would be good for them with the way they rest their starters, and who knows it might be. They get that loss this week. I am loving the second coming of the Vince Young era!

The other game between Contenders this week was between the Ravens and the Steelers. Baltimore pulled it out but they weren't all that impressive, which is why each remains toward the bottom of the tier, and the Titans leap them. Granted, Pittsburgh was without its most valuable player, but back-up QB Dennis Dixon actually played a very good game against the Ravens, until the interception in overtime of course. It was a close, fun game to watch, but I can't see these teams going very far in the playoffs, if either team even makes them.

I give the Broncos credit for looking impressive against the Giants and I bump them back into the second tier. Do I think they have a great team? No, I really don't. But they are 7-4 and they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, so it looks very likely that they find their way into the playoffs to be eliminated in the first round, which means they have to be here, despite their shortcomings.

The Mid-Pack
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. San Francisco 49ers
17. New York Jets
18. Houston Texans
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Miami Dolphins
21. New York Giants
22. Carolina Panthers
23. Washington Redskins
24. Chicago Bears

These teams disgust me. So much wasted talent amongst this group. They are all so mediocre it's nearly impossible to rank them. All they have to do is win their game to rise to the top. The Jets move from the bottom of the tier all the way up to third, because just about everyone else lost. The Dolphins lost a game they absolutely should have won against the Bills, do they take a big tumble. I almost dropped the Bears out of the tier altogether, because they looked dreadful and have for weeks now. The Redskins are the new addition to the Mid-Pack, after playing well against good teams for a few weeks now. They don't always win, but they have played tough, which seems to happen a lot with these mediocre squads. They are no longer members of the Awful. Congratulations Skins fans. The 49ers beat fellow Mid-Packer Jacksonville very soundly, so they jump up to number 16. I'm sure they are thrilled.

Did I mention these teams disgust me?

The Awful
25. Buffalo Bills
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Detroit Lions
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Cleveland Browns

In the battle for who gets the number one pick, the Browns lead. Three teams still have just one win, and wouldn't you know they are three of the four teams I said would finish with one win. Will the Buccaneers, Rams or Browns win again and prove me wrong, like the Raiders already did? Time, my friends, will tell. Again, if your team falls here, I sympathize, my team was here a mere five weeks ago. Good luck in the draft and better luck next year.

As for the Thursday night game, the Jets are favored by three points, and I like them to beat the Bills in Toronto. The Jets will run the ball all night on the Bills, who have proven they can't stop it. Revis locks down TO and the Bills prove why they are still a tier behind the Jets.

Jets (-3) over BILLS

NFL Picks: Week 12

2009-11-29T08:48:00.000-08:00

Went 2-1 on thanksgiving, let's see how I do for the rest of week 12 shall we?

Tampa Bay (+12.5) over ATLANTA
Miami (-3.5) over BUFFALO
CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland
Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Washington
Indianapolis (-3.5) over HOUSTON
Kansas City (+13.5) over SAN DIEGO
TENNESSEE (-3) over Arizona
New England (+3) over New Orleans

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Chicago
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
BALTIMORE (pick) over Pittsburgh
Lock of the Week
Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANSISCO

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 88-71-1
Lock Picks: 18-15

Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

2009-11-26T08:58:00.000-08:00

Green Bay (-11) over DETROIT
The Packers should crush the Lions like they did the first time around, even with Stafford and Calvin Johnson playing.

Oakland (+13.5) over DALLAS
I think this one will be a close game. Dallas has had an awful offense the past few weeks, Miles Austin shouldn't be able to do much against Asumugha and the Raiders just beat the Bengals. Will I take 13.5? Of course I will!

DENVER (+6.5) over New York Giants
I expect the Broncos to win straight up. The Giants aren't very good, and I've said it all along. they haven't been playong well. Now that said, the Broncos have been terrible lately. I just think with a healthier Kyle Orton, at home on Thanksgiving, they should be able to get back on track.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 12

2009-11-25T10:18:00.000-08:00

I'm going with a recap/power rankings hybrid this week. I'll recap why teams are moving up or down, but I won't waste your time with things that didn't matter. Here we go:

The Elite:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Minnesota Vikings

This is a huge change from last week. The top 3 remain the same, but the big news came from Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They lost to the Raiders and Chiefs, respectively. Not just lost against the spread, but lost the game out-right! I can't honestly say they are among the Elite teams anymore. You just can't lose to teams like that. The loss of Palamalu is just absolutely terrible for Pittsburgh. They are a completely different defense without him. Cincinnati was without Cedric Benson but still, you can't lose to the Raiders.

The other developement is that I can no longer keep Minnesota out of this group. Brett Favre continues to defy his age and track record. He's not throwing interceptions! Its crazy. They are beating the teams they should beat. They haven't laid an egg like the Steelers and Bengals just did. They belong here, behind the big 3.

The Contenders:
5. San Diego Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Tennessee Titans

Lots of movers here, the biggest being the aforementioned Steelers. I think they might be done depending on when Palamalu comes back. Its just such a crushing blow to this team. The Chargers move up a couple slots with their blow out of Denver. They are the team closest to moving into the Elite. They are just clicking right now at the right time. They talented enough to win a Super Bowl, lets see if they can avoid letting their coach tank them. The other important developement: Those Tennessee Titans, at 4-6, are contenders. Would you want to play this team right now? I know I wouldn't! Vince Young is playing fantastic and he's having fun, which is so important and great to see. Chris Johnson is the best running back in football right now. He could go for 2000 yards this season. It was once crazy, but they could legitimately go 10-6. They are just really good and they are fired up. They have total "nobody believed in us" status, they control the ball, and Vince is playing his game that is so hard to defend when he gets out of the pocket. Watch out, they are jumping every week.

The Texans drop out of the contenders and into the mid pack with their loss. The other teams move up and down based on their performance this week, but they are all generally the same as they were and still belong here.

The Mid Pack:
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Giants
19. Denver Broncos
20. Carolina Panthers
21. San Fransisco 49ers
22. Chicago Bears
23. New York Jets

These teams pretty much lived up to their name. They were very middle of the road. Only two teams jumped 3 spots in this pack, the Giants and the Jaguars. I still don't like either of them, as they didn't look impressive and don't think either is close to being a contender, but they did actually win their games. I can't say that about anyone else in this list other than the best team in this group, Miami. Just a bunch of mediocre 4-6 to 6-4 squads. The Mid-Pack indeed.

The Awful:
24. Washington Redskins
25. Kansas City Chiefs
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Seattle Seahawks
29. St. Louis Rams
30. Detroit Lions
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Cleveland Browns

Washington almost beat Dallas, so they move up to the top of this list. Kansas City beat the Steelers, so they are right behind. That is also why Oakland moves up to 26 and they might actually be a mid-pack team with Bruce Gradkowski. Only time will tell. The rest remain in the dregs, with no hope of escaping even into the mediocre. Buffalo had a shot at beating Jacksonville, but let it slip away. Just like any awful team should.

That's it for me this week. If you have the chance to go see the Blind Side, definitely check it out. It was fantastic. Have a very happy Thanksgiving everybody!

NFL Picks: Week 11

2009-11-22T08:44:00.000-08:00

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami
DALLAS (-11) over Washington
DETROIT (-3.5) over Clevelenad
GREEN BAY (-6.5) over San Fransisco
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Pittsburgh
MINESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle
Atlanta (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
New Orleans (-11.5) over TAMPA BAY
Buffalo (+9) over JACKSONVILLE
BALTIMORE (+1) over Indianapolis
Cincinatti (-9.5) over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over New York Jets
Tennessee (+4.5) over HOUSTON

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-2.5) over DENVER

Lock of the Week
Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS

Last week: 8-7
Overall: 79-64-1
Lock Picks: 16-14

NFL Power Rankings: Week 11

2009-11-18T11:40:00.000-08:00

I've noticed that now that we have played ten weeks of football, the teams are starting to get entrenched into their own tiers. Some fall, some rise, but for the most part the tiers stay the same. So for this list, I'm going to separate them based on the tiers I think they fall into:

The Elite: These are the Super Bowl favorites. The Saints remain on top, but only just. Any of these teams could win the Super Bowl and I wouldn't at all be shocked.

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Contenders: These teams also have a shot of making a deep run in the playoffs, but they also have some fatal flaws that could prevent them from getting there.

6. Minnesota Vikings
7. San Diego Chargers
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Green Bay Packers
12. Houston Texans
13. Philadelphia Eagles

The Mid-pack: These are the teams that are mired in mediocrity. The teams we can't figure out. The teams that play awesome one week, then terrible the next. The teams that fail to live up to their full potential. They might have an outside shot at the playoffs, but will more than likely come up short. Teams that make you go "meh."

14. Atlanta Falcons
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Tennessee Titans
17. Denver Broncos
18. Carolina Panthers
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. San Francisco 49ers
21. New York Giants
22. New York Jets
23. Chicago Bears

The Awful: These are the pitiful, hopeless, wait til next year, hope we get a good draft pick, tank the season dregs of the NFL. They are all varying levels of bad, but none of them are going anywhere. Better luck next year!

24. Buffalo Bills
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Washington Redskins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Oakland Raiders
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Detroit Lions
32. Cleveland Browns

I'm going to go with the tiers for the remainder of the season so I hope you like them!

So there was this 4th and 2... you may have heard about it

2009-11-17T14:47:00.000-08:00

Patriots/Colts: There is no other place to start. It was the game of the week, and to say it lived up to the hype is a complete understatement. A game in which the Patriots thoroughly dominated for 3 quarters, then completely lost control and gave the game over to Peyton Manning, who led a legendary comeback.

But you don't care about that.

Everyone and their mother is talking about "The Call." The call made by sure-fire Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. The call that was indefensibly, incomprehensibly, undeniably D-U-M-B.

Now I know, there have been lots of pundits out there that want to tell me that the statistics show that the Patriots had a statistically better chance at going for it and converting, than stoping the Colts final drive. But this game is not played based on statistics. If you want to follow that theory, the Patriots shouldn't employ a punter. They should go for the attempt every single time. If there is one time in the game where you should not attempt to go for it on 4th down (and I am a huge proponent of coaches going for it more often) this was it. People like to throw around the terms "playing to win" and "playing not to lose." Well guess what? The definition of win is "to not lose". That is an argument over semantics and its frankly just stupid. What Belichick did here was playing "to decide the game his way." He wanted to decide the game on one play. They make it, they win, they don't make it, they lose. That is what happens. If Belichick didn't believe his team could stop Manning from 70 yards out, he sure didn't think they could stop him from 28. So they don't make it, they lose.

I just can't see how a coach can have so little confidence in his defense. Granted Peyton Manning is lethal inside of two minutes coming from behind, but he was not having his best game. He threw two brutal interceptions earlier in the game. The Patriots had stopped him on several occasions during the game. The last drive very well could have been ended early if the Colts didn't get a very questionable pass interference call in their favor for a 30+ yard gain. Peyton Manning is not infallible. You have to give your defense the chance to Do Their Jobs.

So the decision was made, Belichick wanted to be bold. He went for it and failed. Regardless of whether the correct spot was made or not (if they hadn't used their time outs so poorly, they would have been able to challenge, improperly using time outs early in the second half continues to bite teams in the ass, pardon the language) and maybe get the call overturned. But they had no time outs and the Colts had the ball. Belichick obviously had no faith in his defense, so why wouldn't he just tell them to let them score? Just let them go. Don't play defense. Let them score on one play, put the ball back in the hands of your offense with at least 1:30 left in the game. That is the only move that makes sense with the logic he used in going for it on 4th and 2.

But they didn't do that. They let the Colts chew up the clock and score the game winning touchdown. They had no chance for a comeback. This game is all on Belichick. I know he is a terrific coach. He is a hall of famer. But on this night, his hubris got the best of him, and it cost his team a win.

And so we move on...

Bears/49ers: This was the Thursday game, a game the Bears should have won. Poor play calling and Jay Cutler thinking that the Bears changed their team colors for most of the game doomed them. It was an all around ugly game and I kinda wish I didn't even watch it. It was pitiful, these are bad teams.

Bills/Titans: Roll on Titans! The fightin' Chris Johnson's are 3-0 under Vince Young. Johnson led the team in rushing and receiving, and just dominated this game. Give credit to the defense of Tennessee though, they are looking leaps and bounds ahead of what they were 3 weeks ago. Two interception touchdowns turned this game into a blow out. The new look Titans get a real test in Houston on Monday Night Football this week. I'll be watching intently.

Fantasy Alert: If your league dropped Nate Washington, you may want to go get him. And you might want to start thinking about playing Vince Young. He's been playing really well lately. Chris Johnson takes his place as the number one back in fantasy, at least for now.

Saints/Rams: This game proved you can beat the Saints. There is no reason that they shouldn't have dominated this game. They can't get lazy, this is the NFL. I hope their coaches stress this in pratice this week or they may be in for a fall that their talent level doesn't deserve.

Fantasy Alert: Man, that Saints backfield sure is tricky. I love Pierre Thomas, but Reggie Bush stole the show in this one. I wouldn't want to be an owner of any one of them. They are too all or nothing.

Dolphins/Buccaneers: The Bucs had this one in hand, but the Dolphins are the better team, and they gutted it out at the end. Just another one of those games that bad teams always lose, even if they deserve to win.

Fantasy Alert: Ronnie Brown could be missing some serious time. You need to find a replacement now, and if you didn't already have Ricky Williams, I doubt you'll be able to add him now. Running back injuries were the theme of the week, and guys like Forsett from Seattle, Snelling from Atlanta and Scott from Cincinnati all could see some serious time in the coming weeks.

Vikings/Lions: Nothing special, better team won. Moving on.

Jaguars/Jets: Here is a game where a coach made a controversial call that worked out. He had Maurice Jones-Drew take a knee at the one yard line instead of scoring a sure touchdown, as his fantasy owners cringed. This was so the Jaguars could kill the clock and kick an easy field goal as time expires. Many have argued that you need to take the points and play defense, but why give the ball back to the other team when you don't have to? They only needed a field goal to win. Basically it comes down to this:

You have two choices to win a game, which one would you pick, all you have to do is execute and you win:

Option A) The other team has the ball and you need to stop them from having a touchdown scoring drive

or

Option B) Kick an extra point

Which of these options has a higher success rate? I'll take kicking the extra point any day. Good job Jack Del Rio, and kudos to MJD for apologizing to his fantasy owners in his press conference.

Bengals/Steelers: This Bengals team was for real last week, but now they finally get credit for it. Good for them. I am putting them in the group of elite teams, and they are doing it with defense, who'd have thought?

Fantasy Alert: Cedric Benson was one of the running backs to leave the game with injury. Bernard Scott filled in nicely, but the team went out and signed Larry Johnson anyway. That isn't going to work, but it looks like Benson should be back next week anyway. Monitor the situation.

Broncos/Redskins: Ok, I could understand the first two losses, but the Redskins? Broncos you are killing your supporters! This is the anti-Titans. Started exceptionally hot and then colled off significantly. The schedule is really easy, but they lost to the Redskins! How can you trust them anymore?

Fantasy Alert: Brandon Marshall was on pace for about 100 fantasy points after one quarter, but then he stopped producing. This was due in large part to Kyle Orton getting hurt and Chris Simms stinking up the field. with no Orton, this team is in big trouble. That's right up there with "cedric Benson is a top ten fantasy back" on my list of things I'd never thought I would say. What a season.

Falcons/Panthers: This is what happens when you lose your outstanding running back and your young quarterback isn't as good as you may have thought. You lose to the Carolina Panthers. They will be amongst the biggest movers in this weeks power rankings, as will the Falcons, in the opposite direction. Turner is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, that spells doom on their season.

Fantasy Alert: Jason Snelling filled in for Turner, and if you lost Turner, he is the guy to go get. Like now!

Chiefs/Raiders: Nothing to see here. Move along.

Fantasy Alert: Dwayne Bowe has been suspended 4 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Chris Chambers moves to number one and Lance Long to number 2. I personally think they are both rosterable in all leagues.

Cowboys/Packers: Well what do you know, my love of this Packers team payed off for me! They really needed this win and they got it. Will Dallas have another late season collapse? Could this be the start of it? Will this springboard the Packers into the season they should be having with all their talent? Its too early to tell. We will need to see in the coming weeks, but these are definitely two of the most interesting teams in football. Very tough to figure out. Stay tuned folks, stay tuned on these two.

Cardinals/Seahawks: The right team won this game, despite Seattle getting off to a good start. This game had more of a fantasy impact than a real football one, so I'll just move on to that.

Fantasy Alert: Justin Forsett could be the best add of any replacement running backs this week. He finished the day with 123 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries. On the Cardinals side, Beanie Wells was impressive, scoring 2 touchdowns on 85 yards. The backfield could be swinging in his favor. I'd give it one more week before I name him a fantasy starter yet though. Hightower is still too good around the goal line and as a receiver out of a backfield for them not to use him.

Eagles/Chargers: Poor Brian Westbrook. Even poorer Brian Westbrook fantasy owners. He suffered his second concussion of the year in this game and I'd be surprised to see him play again this year. LeSean McCoy is the perfect example of a handcuff, and I see his value the rest of the way skyrocketing. But for the Chargers, its good to see LT get in on the action. Welcome to the season, you're 9 weeks late. The Chargers do look good though and they have a pivotal game against Denver coming up. They need to win that one to keep my predicting priveledges in tact.

Fantasy Alert: Don't expect this out of LT very often. He is still done. Outstanding game from Donovan McNabb though, props to him.

Browns/Ravens: The Browns are right where they belong in this column: the bottom. No one is worse in the NFL.

Power Rankings out tomorrow. Take care everyone.

NFL Picks: Week 10

2009-11-14T15:20:00.000-08:00

Final week before byes are all done and we get back to 16 games a week. Here we go:

NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over Jacksonville
The Jets are coming off a bye, they're at home, they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Jacksonville isn't very good. A lot of things point to the Jets in this one.

Cincinnatti (+7) over PITTSBURGH
Like I said, I'm never underestimating Cincinnati again. they can hang with anyone, even the defending champs. They keep this one within a touchdown. I can't wait for this game, its going to be fantastic.

TENNESSEE (-8.5) over Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills give up more rushing yards than any team in football. Chris Johnson is an absolute monster. These factors combine for an ugly day for the Bills. The march to 10-6 rolls on!

MINNESOTA (-16.5) over Detroit
Minnesota should have no trouble against the hapless Lions. If Seattle can beat them by 12, Minnesota should be able to win by 24. They are at least twice as good. I can't pick the Lions any more, they just fail every time out.

MIAMI (-10) over Tampa Bay
Just because Tampa trampled Green Bay's awful O-line last week doesn't mean that they are any better than we thought. Miami will run the ball down their throat with the wildcat. They are a far different team from Green Bay, and that is why I have no problem laying 10 points on Miami in this one.

Kansas City (+2) over OAKLAND
You should know my theory by now when two bad teams are playing each other. Take the points. Even if it is only two of them, I like the Chiefs.

ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle
Arizona is vastly superior to Seattle. I got this one completely wrong before the season and I'm totally willing to admit it. Give me Arizona all day. They should blow Seattle out of the building.

SAN DIEGO (-1) over Eagles
This one could go either way (no kidding dummy, that's why its a one point line). I like San Diego at home. The Eagles didn't impress me last week, the Chargers did. I still don't know what to make of the Eagles. I want to like them, but I don't know. I like the Chargers and think they are hitting their stride.

GREEN BAY (+3) over Dallas
Oh Green Bay, I wish I knew how to quit you. It's a must win game in Lambeau in November. I know Dallas will get 8 sacks. But I still think that the Packers can pull off the upset. I am probably an idiot.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England
I originally picked the Patriots but I'm switching to the Colts. Peyton is too good in Prime time and my friend put the kiss of death by betting on the Pats. I like Indy.

Baltimore (-11) over CLEVELAND
The Ravens will win easily. Cleveland is the worst team in football right now. My boy Ray Rice is in for a field day on that horrible Browns defense. They win by three touchdowns if not more.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
New Orleans (-14) over ST. LOUIS
Why is the best team in football only two touchdown favorites over the St. Louis Rams? Are they that scared of Steven Jackson? I know the Saints can be run on, but come on. This will be an awful game that is never in doubt. I can't believe how low this line is. This is the Florida vs. Charleston Southern of the NFL.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA
Atlanta is thoroughly better than Carolina, so this is just a puzzling line. Carolina is home and Deangelo Williams has played great lately, but they still aren't winning. Atlanta should make this one easy. No idea why they aren't 7 point favorites.

Lock Of The Week
Denver (-4) over WASHINGTON
Denver has looked awful the last two weeks and exposed themselves as worse than they had been playing. So Vegas overreacted and made this line only 4. They seem to have forgotten that Washington is downright awful. Denver should have an easy time dismantling the Skins, as Vegas shows them no respect.

Last Week: 7-6
Overall: 71-57-1
Lock Picks: 16-11

NFL Power Rankings: Week 10

2009-11-11T09:57:00.000-08:00

The top 4 remain the same and are separating themselves from the rest of the pack. Cincinnati is on the rise and can definitely break in if they beat Pittsburgh this week. Dallas, Minnesota, Arizona and San Diego are all contenders. Baltimore and Denver are falling and are both desperate for a win, which they should each get with their schedule for week 10. Tennessee is the best 2-6 team ever. Miami is also pretty good at 3-5. Cleveland is back on the bottom after Tampa Bay pulls off the upset of Green Bay.

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Dallas Cowboys
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Houston Texans
13. Denver Broncos
14. Atlanta Falcons
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Green Bay Packers
17. New York Jets
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Chicago Bears
20. San Francisco 49ers
21. Carolina Panthers
22. New York Giants
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Washington Redskins
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Detroit Lions
32. Cleveland Browns

I'm making my Thursday night game pick here: Chicago (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

Week 9 NFL Wrap Up

2009-11-10T14:54:00.000-08:00

Eagerly awaiting the latest ESPN 30 for 30 Documentary tonight, which everyone should watch, they have been excellent, so in the meantime, I'm going to pound out my weekly wrap, in its full, unabridged goodness. Here we go:

Packers/Buccaneers: I'll start this wrap off with the game that hurt the most this weekend. The team that I picked to win the Super Bowl just lost to the worst team in football. How could this happen? They should have won by 30, and that is not an exaggeration. There is one very clear explanation for this: Green Bay's offensive line is historically bad. They are so great at just about every skill position, but they are unable to keep their quarterback off of his back. Now some of the blame definitely rests on Rogers, as he does have a tendency to hold onto the ball for too long, but the line does him no favors. I still think they can make the playoffs, as the schedule the rest of the way is very favorable, but anything could happen with a team that loses to Tampa.

Fantasy Impact: James Jones could be a serviceable wideout in deeper leagues, as he put up over 100 yards, but most came on 74 yard TD catch. Only deep leagues should consider him. Josh Freeman actually had a decent game and anyone who desperately needs a QB in two quarterback leagues might want to take a flyer on him. Derrick Ward got in the end zone, but I still wouldn't want to own him. Aaron Rodgers is a first round pick next year.

Dolphins/Patriots: The Patriots are an elite team and the Dolphins are a little better than their record indicates. They aren't good and won't make the playoffs, but they are fully mediocre, rather than terrible. They played the Pats tough but I don't think the game was ever really in doubt.

Fantasy Impact: Maroney has one more game to prove he really belongs as the number one back in New England. I personally wouldn't want to be relying on him if you can possibly avoid it.

Chiefs/Jaguars: These teams are bad, but hey good for the Chiefs to actually make this one a game. They didn't win but it could have been a lot worse. Jamal Charles seriously needs to see more touches in this offense, and Larry Johnson being cut is good for him. That said, unless they can stop teams from jumping out to a lead on them, they won't be running very often, as evidenced by their 14 carries in this game. Matt Cassell has been ok this season. Not great, but he is definitely a fully capable starter in this league. All that said, neither of these teams is going anywhere.

Fantasy Impact: Chris Chambers found his new home to be very fruitful, scoring two late touchdowns. Something like that can seriously help his fantasy numbers as his new quarterback now knows he can trust him in the red zone and look to him as the first target. Snatch him up if he's on your wire and you need a WR. On the other side, Mike Sims-Walker remains absolutely filthy. Best pick up of the year for me.

Falcons/Redskins: A good Falcons team beat up a terrible Redskins team. A little extra-curricular activity spiced this one up on the sidelines, but really, the Falcons completely outplayed the Skins in every way. Clinton Portis got hurt and that didn't help matters. Michael Turner just ran them to death.

Fantasy Impact: Turner proves once again that he kills bad teams. He is a great back and is disproving the curse of 370, but he still has games where he fails to do anything at all. This was clearly a game where he dominated everyone on the Redskins defense. At least his owners can feel confident that he wasn't a huge bust, unlike a few other high profile picks.

Cardinals/Bears: I should have made this game one of my locks. The Bears are really struggling on both sides of the ball and Arizona isn't a bad team by any means. In fact, they are making a great case that the Super Bowl loser curse isn't affecting them at all. They have had a couple bad games, but they are still the class of their poor division and will coast to the playoffs. The Bears got behind early and had to throw all day long, a style that doesn't suit them. They are a mess right now.

Fantasy Impact: It was a feeding frenzy for the Cardinals studs. Fitzgerald had 123 yards and 2 touchdowns, Steve Breaston filled in for Anquan Boldin and racked up 91 total yards and a TD. Both Cardinals running backs went over 70 yards and both should be rostered in all leagues. Even the Cardinals tight ends Ben Patrick and Anthony Becht got in on the scoring action, but don't expect that to become a regular thing. On the Chicago side of the ball, Matt Forte might have had a good game... if he got more than 5 carries! He still gained 33 yards for an average of 6.6. The guy is still very good, he just needs more opportunities, but the Bears were far behind in this one and needed to throw. And throw they did all over the field but especially to Greg Olsen, who got his official welcome to the fantasy season! Some touted him as a top 5 tight end before the year and until now, he has shown to be a major bust. Not in this one. He amasses 71 yards and found the end zone a whopping 3 times! That said, he was only the fourth best receiver in terms of total yardage, as Devin Hester had 94, Earl Bennett had 93, and Matt Forte grabbed 74 to go with his 33 rushing. This game was a fantasy feast. Kurt Warner had 5 touchdowns and looked like the Warner of last year. Unfortunately, the only guy you might be able to grab is Bennett. Maybe Breaston if you play in a shallow league or one with slow managers. If they are there, they shouldn't be much longer.

Bengals/Ravens: I will say this as bluntly as I can: I will not be doubting this Bengals team for the rest of the season. They are good. They can be VERY good. They have all the weapons. Palmer looks back to his old self. Cedric Benson has found his new self. Chad Ochocinco is back to being an All-Pro receiver. But most importantly, the defense is so vastly improved from any point in recent Bengals history. They can play with anyone in the league. I still think the Ravens are a very good team, the Bengals just outplayed them. Every time the game scrolled by on the bottom with the score update it seemed like the Bengals had the ball. They were dominant. The only guy that could do anything in this game for the Ravens was Ray Rice, who is a top 5 back in this league, right now.

Fantasy Impact: Cedric Benson and Ray Rice are both first round picks and they were both big in this game. It was all about the running game in this one. Chris Henry of the Bengals went down for the year, so if you had him (although he's been a bust) you will need a replacement.

Colts/Texans: The Texans probably should have won this game, but this was one of those situations where the great team pulls it out and the lesser team falls short. The Colts are a great team. Year in and year out they prove it. They are a fantastic team, with a fantastic core of winners. The Texans don't have the mental fortitude to pull out a game like this, and it ended with a missed field goal. A lot of people think the Colts are the front-runners right now, and they are great, but I still put them a spot behind New Orleans. The Texans are a good team, but I think they showed that is all they are right now. A one and done Playoff team at best.

Fantasy Impact: The real fantasy story hear is the epic battle between two ineffective running backs: Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton. Moats had 16 carries to Slaton's 6, but he also fumbled on the one yard line, which was why Slaton wasn't starting in the first place. Slaton got the only rushing touchdown, but Moats caught one. Slaton averaged 2.8 yards, while Moats averaged 2.4. I still think Slaton is the better player, and he will establish himself as the number one when it matters, for the fantasy playoffs.

Seahawks/Lions: I can't talk about this game. They both suck that stupid last second interception return for a touchdown got the Seahawks a cover they didn't deserve. Moving on.

Saints/Panthers: The Panthers jumped out to the early lead, but I was never in doubt that the Saints would win this game. Just like the Colts/Texans game, the better teams almost always win these types of games. The Saints have proven that they can score at will. That is exactly how they won this game. They scored on offense, they scored on defense, it was another great win for the NFL's best team.

Fantasy Impact: Deangelo Williams is putting up huge numbers in his last couple of games and is making that fantasy push that he made last year to vault him to number one status. I'm not saying he'll finish the year that way again. I am however saying that he will justify where you drafted him. Great games from Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson for the Saints. They have four receivers that could put up useful fantasy lines in any given week and have shown that while Colston is Brees' favorite, he has no hesitation to throw to anyone else on the field. He trusts them all.

Chargers/Giants: The Giants continue their free fall to mediocrity but the difference here is that they should have won this game. They had it in the bag, then they couldn't stop Phillip Rivers in the final 2 minutes. They have the most over-rated defense in football. Its almost impossible to even make a case for them anymore, not that I ever would to begin with. The Giants made the wrong decision to trade Rivers and the picks that ended up being Merriman and Kaeding to get Eli. I know they won a Super Bowl, but Rivers is a better quarterback. He showed why again this weekend with a terrific drive to bury the Giants. They don't have a shot at the playoffs, and now my 9-7 prediction is looking too nice. I even thought they would win one over the Cardinals or Chargers. They will be lucky to finish 8-8. The only really winnable games they have left are against Carolina and Washington. That would leave them at 7-9. The Chargers on the other hand are only one game behind the Broncos and making my "must win the west" prediction for the Chargers a little more safe.

Fantasy Impact: With every game that goes by with a useless Ladanian Tomlinson, I get more and more giddy about labeling him done. I don't care if you care about it anymore, I'm doing this one for me. It is so nice to watch everyone that wasted a first round pick on this washed up bum of a running back flounder towards the bottom of the standings. Beyond that, the true storyline of the Chargers season is the emergence of Vincent Jackson as a top 5 fantasy wide receiver. I would rank only Fitzgerald, Moss, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson ahead of him going into next season. He is an absolute monster, scoring 2 TDs on 58 yards in this one, including the game winner.

Titans/49ers: The reign of Vince Young continues for my Titans! Here we come 10-6! Ok so no, that really won't happen. And it isn't really Vince Young that won them the last two games. However, he hasn't lost those games either. I really think he is the quarterback of the future for this franchise and never lost faith in him. But the reason they are winning games is Chris Johnson. He is the only back in the league that you can even put in the conversation with Adrian Peterson for best running back in the game. Just watch the guy run when he gets some open space. No one explodes like he does. He is the fastest back in the league and he is single handedly beating teams. I'm so glad he's on my team, because I wouldn't want to have to figure out how to stop him.

Fantasy Impact: 135 yards and two touchdowns. That is what Chris Johnson looks like when he isn't even on his A-game. There is no question he will go in the top 3 in every fantasy draft next year. Vernon Davis continues to be amazing, and haunt me for giving up on him a year too soon. I swear between him and Cedric Benson it makes me feel like nobody knows nothin.

Cowboys/Eagles: These teams are both pretty good, but the Cowboys proved to be a little better. I think there are four Elite teams in the league, but both of these teams are right outside of that tier. The Eagles were torpedoed by Andy Ried's poor clock management and waste of challenges, but if you watched the game you don't need me to tell you that. It was so obvious he had no idea what he was doing and he cost them a game they had a chance to win. I am fascinated to see what both teams do the rest of the way. They could both contend for a Super Bowl, be one and done, or one could even miss the playoffs altogether. Right now, the Cowboys are better.

Fantasy Impact: If you have Lesean McCoy in a keeper league at a good late round value, you want to hang onto him. He is a Brian Westbrook clone. He is already great and I don't think the Eagles lose anything when they have to start him because fantasy bust Brian Westbrook misses time with one of his numerous injuries.

Steelers/Broncos: The Steelers are the 4th Elite team in football, and proved that the Broncos are not. They are still pretty good, but not in that upper class. I think they may have peaked too early and everyone jumped on the bandwagon, but they probably are not as good as they have appeared. They have been a little smoke and mirrors, but only just a little. I still think they are good enough to make the playoffs, as anyone with a defense that good is. But they are certainly a beatable team and if they come across a very strong team, like the Steelers, their weaknesses can easily be exploited. The Steelers could repeat this year, but I think The Colts and Patriots stand firmly in their way.

Fantasy Impact: Rashard Mendenhall just took the Pittsburgh Steelers running back and made it his. There is no more doubt about who is going to get the vast majority of carries for the Steelers. 22 carries for 155 yards is quite impressive for the young back. Another great keeper option if you have him at a good value.

Thats what I have for you this week. Watching 30 for 30 on the legend of Jimmy the Greek as I type. If you don't catch it this time it will reshow on Monday night on ESPN 2. Strongly recommended. Until next time...

NBA Power Rankings

2009-11-10T12:45:00.000-08:00

Here they are, edition one of the Power Rankings for the NBA:

1. Boston Celtics
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Phoenix Suns
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Orlando Magic
8. Houston Rockets
9. Miami Heat
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. San Antonio Spurs
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
13. Chicago Bulls
14. Cleveland Cavaliers
15. Toronto Raptors
16. Utah Jazz
17. Milwaukee Bucks
18. Detroit Pistons
19. Philadelphia 76ers
20. New Orleans Hornets
21. Los Angeles Clippers
22. Sacramento Kings
23. Charlotte Bobcats
24. Golden State Warriors
25. Washington Wizards
26. Indiana Pacers
27. Memphis Grizzlies
28. New York Knicks
29. Minnesota Timberwolves
30. New Jersey Nets

Better than I thought: Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami

Worse than I thought: Nets (although in their defense, they are crushed by injury), Warriors, Hornets, Cavaliers

Week 9 NFL Picks

2009-11-07T16:40:00.000-08:00

ATLANTA (-8.5) over Washington
Washington is absolutely terrible, and Atlanta is still pretty good. This should be a two touchdown game.

Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO
I know Arizona laid an egg against Carolina last week but I still trust them more than I trust this Bears team. I'll definitely take the dog in this one. Arizona is the better team.

Baltimore (-3) over CINCINNATI
I like both of these teams a lot, but I really believe in Baltimore. I think they are one of the premier teams in the league. Cincinnati hasn't quite shown me that they are yet. I expect a close game though, and this could very well turn out a push.

Houston (+8.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is a much better team than San Fransisco, and San Fran kept it close against Indy. I honestly think this could be the week Indy loses. Houston is a hot team right now and they can beat you in a lot of ways. I'll definitely take those points.

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Miami
I don't think Miami is very good. They have proven they can't hang with elite teams, and New England is an elite team. Its also in frosty New England. I just don't think Miami matches up well with this Patriot team. They can be thrown on.

Kansas City (+6.5) over Jacksonville
Call it a hunch, but I think Kansas City can hang with the Jaguars. If the Titans can blow them out, Kansas City can keep it close. I think losing Larry Johnson actually helps this team, as it lets Jamal Charles, the better back, get the bulk of the carries for the first time. I definitely think KC can pull off this upset, so I am taking the points.

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina
New Orleans is definitely two touchdowns better than Carolina. This line should be at least 17. The best team in the league will not roll over in this one.

Tennessee (+4) over San Fransisco
Ok, I'll admit it. It was nice to see my Titans win a game last week. Very, very nice. So nice to the point where I am fully back on the Vince Young bandwagon and think he can lead the team to victory once again against an over-rated Niners team. Come on Vince! Come on Chris Johnson! You can do it again!

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas
Should be an excellent, high octane game that remains close. I don't love one team in this game, but I think Philly is a little better and they are at home, so I'll take them.

Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER
I think Denver got a little bit exposed last week. The Ravens were highly effective in stopping their offense, and Pittsburgh should be able to follow in their footsteps. Should be low scoring, but I will take the favorites. Can't wait to watch it though.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (+4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
San Diego should be favored in this game. Vegas continues to think the Giants are good, even when their on field performance proves otherwise. You know my thoughts on how bad they are, San Diego should cruise.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Detroit (+10) over SEATTLE
Both of these teams are just about equally awful, so why not take the team that has a 10 point cushion? I couldn't tell you who will win this one straight up. I think you are getting a bit of a gift because the line is an over-reaction to Detroit losing to the Rams. Calvin Johnson will be back in this one, I can't pick against those 10 points.

Lock Of The Week
Green Bay (-10) over TAMPA BAY
Seriously? Just 10 points? Why? This is a stupid line. Tampa can not hang with anyone in the league, let alone Green Bay. I'd be surprised if Tampa scores more than 7 points.

Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 64-51-1
Lock Picks: 15-9

Film Review: Paranormal Activity

2009-11-06T12:26:00.000-08:00

Paranormal Activity

This was the worst porno film I've ever had the displeasure of watching. Where was the sex??? It was just nothing but those in between scenes where the girl tells the guy to shut the camera off. Usually there's a payoff... Wait this was supposed to be an amateur sex tape right? Because that's exactly how it felt.

Now I know, the point was to make the film seem real, as if these events were actually happening to these people. However, I just can’t say that they succeeded in doing so. These characters do not feel like real people. Sure, the quality of the camera work seems like something that real people could do. Of course, the effects used in this movie do not feel overly fake like they do in most horror films. What makes this film fail is that the characters themselves fall right into the same horror movie cliché. They are so stupid to the point that no real person would have reacted to their situation the same way, and thus, loses all believability.

The male character in the film, Micah, plays the stereotypical horror character that throughout the film thinks he can outsmart, outfight, and basically beat the villain, just because he is so cool. I like to call this character “the horror tool.” Micah fits the bill precisely. Why would any person who actually believes that a demon is haunting their house and their girlfriend go around provoking said demon? Well, because it moves the plot along and gives you some resemblance to a story (which there is very little to begin with). A real, rational thinking person would do anything they can to make the paranormal activity go away. This guy wants to make it mad. Typical horror tool behaviour.

The female character, Katie, is a lot more believable. However, she doesn’t do enough to try and stop what is happening to her and just kind of lets Micah run the show. In order for a film to feel real, to have the kind of suspense that everyone is praising Paranormal Activity for, you have to be able to relate to the characters. You have to be able to feel sympathy for the characters. You have to think to yourself that what you are watching on screen could happen to you. Not once during this film did I feel any of that.

Instead, I found myself frustrated with their actions. For example, the couple leaves the door to their bedroom wide open throughout the entire film, inviting the demon inside. Would anybody actually do that? I’m not suggesting that simply closing the door would have stopped the demon, but any real person would have at least tried to close and lock the door. These two didn’t think of that. Nor did they try very hard to bring in experts to try and solve the problem.

The film plays out just like The Blair Witch Project only inside of a house rather than in the woods. Very little story, not much actually happens, several unnecessary boring scenes, terrible acting and about 5 minutes of genuinely creepy stuff towards the end. This does not make a good film. I wasn’t scared, I wasn’t on the edge of my seat, the film was actual pretty laughable to me. I was hoping that the ending would be good, and at least give the film some form of redeeming quality, but really it was just totally anticlimactic. I never had high hopes for the film, but it even fell below whatever curiosity I had, sparked by all the praise it had been given. This was by far the worst film I have seen this year, and really the worst I have seen in a long time.

2/10

Week 9 Power Rankings

2009-11-05T18:05:00.000-08:00

I wasn't able to do a recap this week, I know, I'm slacking. I promise there will be one next week, along with NBA power rankings. For now, here are my new NFL Power Rankings for week 9.

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Denver Broncos
10. Houston Texans
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Atlanta Falcons
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Arizona Cardinals
16. Chicago Bears
17. Miami Dolphins
18. New York Jets
19. San Francisco 49ers
20. New York Giants
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Washington Redskins
29. St. Louis Rams
30. Detroit Lions
31. Cleveland Browns
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 8 Picks

2009-10-31T15:43:00.000-07:00

BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Denver
I just think that Denver's undefeated streak has to stop at some point. The Ravens are at home and coming off a bye. I think it ends this week.

Cleveland (+13) over CHICAGO
Now I hate Cleveland. I predicted they'd win one game, and I think Chicago will win the game. I just see this one being close. Chicago hasn't shown me anything recently that tells me they can blow anyone out. I could definitely see Cleveland pulling off a cover here.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota
Obviously the game of the week. I sure hope the Green Bay fans come out and boo the hell out of traitor Favre. I predicted back when Minnesota won on their home field that the result would reverse in Lambeau. Who am I to change that now? Aaron Rodgers is going to hopefully stay off his back in this one and the pressure of coming home gets to Favre. Packers win.

INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) over San Fransisco
I just think the Colts are playing too well to pick against them at this point. I think they can blow out any team that's not really good. The 49ers are not really good, not by any stretch of the imagination.

Miami (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Miami won last time, the Jets haven't shown me that they have improved, and Miami hasn't shown me that they have gotten worse. I think the result will be the same here. Miami just matches up really well with the Jets.

DETROIT (-3.5) over St. Louis
Wow, a game that Detroit is favored in. and I am taking them with confidence. The Rams are an absolute mess, even worse than the Lions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson are coming back. They are at home. I have to take Detroit. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 St. Louis Rams!

SAN DIEGO (-16.5) over Oakland
This is the biggest line we have seen this year. It comes as a reaction to all the favorites winning in blow outs last week. I don't care what the line is, I still like San Diego. The Chargers seem to be settling in and the Raiders are checking out. San Diego should massacre them.

ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina
Each week, Arizona looks more and more like the team that made it to the Super Bowl last year. This week they get a miserable Carolina team at home. Shouldn't be close.

PHILADELPHIA (+1) over New York Giants
These two are both going backward, but I like the Eagles better than the Giants. Hopefully the crowd gets into it and they can stop their backpeddling and send the Giants back to 5-3, only two games above .500. They'd be lucky to finish two games above .500 on the season.

Atlanta (+11) over NEW ORLEANS
I love the Saints and they are the clear best team in the league, but I still have quite a bit of faith in this Falcons team. I think they should make this one a close game.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
DALLAS (-9.5) over Seattle
This game may not look like a big one on paper, but in my opinion, its huge for Dallas. They can't have a hangover game here. They had a huge game last week and they need to do the same thing again. Seattle is a bad team, blow them out. If not, you go back to being nothing more than a mediocre, middle of the road, going nowhere team, Dallas.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE
How is Tennessee favored in this game? Jacksonville blew them out last time. They haven't gotten any better. They put that much faith in Vince Young. Sure, I'd love to see him come in there and lead the team to victory, but I can't see it happening, especially in his first game back. Jacksonville takes this one over the pathetic Titans. Baffled by that line.

Lock Of The Week
Houston (-3.5) over BUFFALO
Houston has too much offense for Buffalo. I think this could get ugly and the line is just a reaction to Buffalo being at home and winning a couple of games in a row.

Last Week: 10-2-1
Overall: 58-44-1
Lock Picks: 13-8

Film Review: The Boondock Saints 2: All Saints Day

2009-10-31T13:43:00.000-07:00

Ten years ago, unknown director Troy Duffy made a low budget film based around two brothers who decide to take it upon themselves to fight against the Boston crime syndicate. The film only ever made it into five theaters and grossed just 30 thousand dollars domestically. It was suppressed mainly due to the fact that it was set to be released around the exact same time as the Columbine shootings and many thought it would be insensitive to release such a violent film at that time.

So there the film sat, smoldering away in no man’s land for several years. However, the film was not dead in the water. Like a Phoenix from the ashes, the film found another life to rise up and overcome its initial shortcomings: the wonderful world of a cult DVD following. The Boondock Saints were indeed coming.

Once the film-going audience was actually able to get their hands on this film, the word started to spread like wildfire. The fans were the true essence of everything that makes a cult movie a cult movie. Anyone who loved it needed to tell everyone they knew how great it was. It may have taken 5 years before this even started, but once it did, there was really no stopping it.

The word finally got to me about three years ago, my sophomore year of college. I had heard the film mentioned and knew I would get to it eventually. However one of my very good friends sat me down and said you need to watch this NOW. It was his favorite movie. So we popped in the DVD and began to watch the film. I can tell you right now, I was never hooked so fast by a movie. As the story played out, I found myself never wanting it to end. The characters were so gripping, so funny, so absolutely likeable. It has found a place firmly in my top five films of all time.

When I heard that they were actually making a sequel, I was cautiously optimistic. Of course I wanted to se more of the Saints, but I also didn’t want them to butcher the greatness of the first. When I heard that everyone involved with the first (minus Willem Dafoe) was returning for the sequel, and writer/director Troy Duffy was at the helm as well, the excitement started to flow. I knew the film would be opening limited, so I just hoped that it would play somewhere within driving distance. It was, so me, that very friend that first introduced me to the Saints, and one other friend took the trip down to Hartford to catch an opening night showing of All Saints Day.

The plot of the new film takes place eight years after the first, and the Saints had been hiding away in Ireland, herding sheep. When they are informed that a Boston priest has been murdered in the style that they used to use (two shots to the back of the head, pennies on the eyes) they come out of hiding to take revenge on anyone who was involved.

If you are worried about the lack of everyone’s favorite loveable idiot sidekick, Rocco, who died in the first film, don’t worry. He does appear in the film in a couple of scenes including a dream sequence, but they also found a very funny and adequate replacement in the character of Romeo, who is basically the same character, only Mexican.

The film stayed true to everything that made the first one so great. Absolutely hilarious dialogue, quick-witted one-liners, and brilliantly executed violence. The lack of well known actors is another thing that I believe makes the Saints stand above any other movie of its type. Sean Patrick Flanery and Norman Reedus completely own their characters. They are Connor and Murphy MacManus. This makes it much easier to just lose yourself in the world the film creates and forget that you are watching actors playing a role. The film, once again, leaves you rooting for the Saints every step of the way.

Willem Dafoe is replaced nicely by Julie Benz, who plays his protégé Special Agent Eunice Bloom. She isn’t quite as enjoyable to watch as Dafoe was in the first film, but she holds her weight and doesn’t detract from the film in any way. So for those of you worried that Dafoe’s absence would really hurt the film, rest assured, he is missed, but not enough that you won’t still love the finished product.

The film basically plays as a carbon copy of the first in terms of style, which leads me to say that it wasn’t quite as good as the first. Of course, I never really expected it would be. Like I mentioned earlier, The Boondock Saints is a top five all time movie for me, so this had some big shoes to fill. That said, I wasn’t even the slightest bit disappointed. The plot played out nicely, including a couple of cool twists towards the end. If you loved the first one, I bet you will like this as well. It is absolutely worth checking out for all fans of the franchise, so if you are worried about them ruining it, I can assure you they did not. It was easily one of the best films I have seen this year. If you still haven’t heard of The Boondock Saints, I strongly urge you to watch the first film. It may be the best movie-based decision you make this year. Or you will hate it and think its an over-hyped piece of crap. Either way, you will be able to decide where you stand on seeing this brilliant sequel, or giving it a strong “No thank you.”

For me, it was absolutely worth that trip to Hartford. I give The Boondock Saints 2: All Saints Day a 10/10.

The NBA is upon us, here's a preview!

2009-10-29T12:17:00.000-07:00

Who is going to be crowned king of the courts for the 09-10 season? Well, for me, it comes down to 5 teams. Three of them I'd consider the favorites, and two teams I'd like to say are wild card teams.

My favorites to win it all have to begin with the defending champion Lakers. They are a different team this year from last, and I don't know if that's necessarily a good thing. The Ron Artest situation may work out, but I don't really think that it will. However, any team with Kobe Bryant at its core will be a title contender. I see a breakout year coming for Andrew Bynum. Like a "I'm going to be a top 3 center before the year is out" type season. If he stays healthy of course. That is going to be the key to their season. The emergence of Bynum and if they can stay healthy. I think they have the best record out West.

Speaking of a team that needs to stay healthy, we get to my second of three favorites, and my favorite to make it to the finals out of the East, the Boston Celtics. Rasheed Wallace is going to be a great addition for this team. He doesn't need to be the guy in Boston. He takes a back seat to the big three and Rajon Rondo. This is key for Sheed. He excels in this role. I think he is going to be the piece they were missing last season. Of course, this team relies on several players who are getting up their in age. Kevin Garnett is coming off knee surgery, and if he goes down again, well there goes the season. however, assuming the team stays healthy, and Rondo continues to make his ascent amongst the leagues great point guards, this team will be unstoppable in the Eastern Conference.

But that said, my pick to win it all this season is the San Antonio Spurs. They have the best coach, a core of players that have won it before, along with a couple of new additions that will put this team over the top one more time. I think this is the last hurrah for the Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobli/ Tony Parker connection. The addition of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and Dejuan Blair to the rotation make this team as a whole better than the Lakers. I see them knocking off the Celtics in the finals. That is of course if one of my wild card teams doesn't knock out either.

The first of these wild card teams is Orlando. They made the finals last year after knocking off Lebron and the Cavs. This year the have replaced Hedo Turkoglu with Vince Carter and he is the ultimate wild card. He could either play like he gives a crap and take this team back to the finals, or he can be Vince Carter. It is yet to be seen. I think this is the only team that gives the Celtics a run, and if the Celtics fall to injury, look for Orlando to be the last man standing in the east once again.

My other wild card team, and the 5th team I think can make a run at the title this season is the Portland Trail Blazers. This team is loaded with young talent just itching to break out. Brandon Roy, Lemarcus Aldridge, and the reason for them being a wild card, the unpredictable Greg Oden. Will he show why he was a number one overall pick? Or will his body succumb to injuries one again? If he can stay on the court, I do think he is a great talent. And if all of these players come into their own, I can see them making a deep playoff run, and possibly a surprise run to a championship.

So really those are the 5 teams I see that actually have a chance at this thing. If you are surprised that a team in Cleveland is left off the list, I can tell you that I don't think the Shaquille O'Neill thing is going to work out their, and beyond that, they are generally the same team they were last year that couldn't get the job done. Lebron is going to end up doing it all by himself again, becoming exceedingly frustrated, and bolting out of their during the off-season.

Here's how I see it breaking down with the rest of the playoff teams:

Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Portland Trail Blazers
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Phoenix Suns
6. Denver Nuggets
7. New Orleans Hornets
8. Utah Jazz

Eastern Conference
1. Boston Celtics
2. Orlando Magic
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Totonto Raptors
5. Chicago Bulls
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Miami Heat
8. New Jersey Nets

Western Conference Playoffs First Round
1. Lakers over 8. Jazz
2. Spurs over 7. Hornets
3. Trail Blazers over 6. Nuggets
4. Mavericks over 5. Suns

Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round
1. Celtics over 8. Nets
2. Magic over 7. Heat
6. Hawks over 3. Cavaliers
4. Raptors over 5. Bulls

Western Conference Semi-final
1. Lakers over Mavericks
2. Spurs over Trail Blazers

Eastern Conference Semi-final
1. Celtics over 4. Raptors
2. Magic over 6. Hawks

Western Conference Final
2. Spurs over 1. Lakers

Eastern Conference Final
1. Celtics over 2. Magic

NBA Finals
Spurs over Celtics

There you have it. As you can see, I'm pretty high on the Raptors, Bulls, Hawks, Mavericks and Suns. And I think the Nets make the playoffs in the East. I like their team a little bit

Here's some fantasy players I love this season. I know its too late for your draft, but if you can target these guys in trades, I'd advise it. Hopefully I'm skipping the obvious names here:
Jose Calderon PG- TOR
Devin Harris PG-NJN
Brook Lopez PF/C-NJN
David West PF- NO
Lemarcus Aldridge PF/C-POR
David Lee- PF/C- NYK
Derrick Rose PG-CHI
Andrew Bynum PF/C- LAL
AL Horford PF/C- ATL
Russell Westbrook PG- OKC
Eric Gordon SG-LAC
Jeff Green F/G- OKC
Joakim Noah- PF/C-CHI
Antonio McDyess C-SAS
Aaron Brooks PG- HOU
Louis Scola PF/C- HOU

That'll do it. I'll start doing NBA Power Rankings every two weeks, starting after the second week of NBA action. NFL picks will be up on Saturday, until then, take care.

Power Rankings- Week 8

2009-10-28T12:06:00.000-07:00

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Denver Broncos
4. New England Patriots
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Atlanta Falcons
11. Minnesota Vikings
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Dallas Cowboys
14. New York Jets
15. Philadelphia Eagles
16. Houston Texans
17. New York Giants
18. Miami Dolphins
19. San Francisco 49ers
20. Chicago Bears
21. Buffalo Bills
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Seattle Seahawks
24. Detroit Lions
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Oakland Raiders
29. Washington Redskins
30. Cleveland Browns
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. St. Louis Rams

Blowout City

2009-10-28T11:45:00.000-07:00

That was the story of week 7. As the gap between the best and worse teams in the NFL widens, we are bound to get a couple of weeks like this. I will not be doing a full recap this week, because so many of the games didn't warrant being written about. Here's a few things that I actually did learn from week 7.

- Alex Smith will be the 49ers quarterback for at least the rest of this season. The Texans shouldn't have given up such a big lead. Unacceptable. At least they escaped with a win.

- The Vikings gave away a game to the Steelers defense. I do think the Steelers are the better team in this one, and it was good to see them hand the Vikings their first loss. Expect their second to come in Lambeau this week. Brad Childress made a few awful decisions in this one., like not going for it on 4th and goal at the one, and not giving the ball to Adrian Peterson a lot more than he did. No excuse for that.

- Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better quarterback than Trent Edwards. That isn't saying much, but the Bills soundly beat the Panthers. A lot of people said the Panthers were back after last week. The Bills proved that Carolina just stinks.

- Bengals showed up to blow out the Bears. I think the Bears are done this year, and the Bengals are proving to be a damn good team. I wouldn't want to see Cincinnati on my schedule in the coming weeks. Carson Palmer is finally all the way back.

- The Cowboys proved more to me in this game than they have all season. With the Romo-Austin hook up in full gear, this team is a lot better than they have played previous. They certainly showed me more than anything the Giants have done this year.

- The Saints are really, really good. They can prove that even when they are playing poorly, you can't knock them out. They adjusted their game plan on defense and just used their historically awesome offense to pulverize the Dolphins, 43-10 after the Dolphins jumped out to an early 24-3 lead. They are still the best team in the league.

- The Giants continue their fall back to mediocrity, losing to a solid Cardinals team. 9-7, you heard it here FIRST!

- The Eagles should have beaten the Redskins by more than they did. I no longer think they will make a dep playoff run. They seem to lack heart.

Fantasy pick ups- Shonn Greene, Alex Smith, Vernon Davis (if available), Fred Davis (Cooley done for the year), Beanie Wells, Hakeem Nicks, Sam Aiken

That will do it. New Power Rankings up next!

Week 7 Picks

2009-10-25T08:47:00.000-07:00

San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY
PITTSBURG (-4.5) over Minnesota
New England (-14.5) over TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON (-3) over San Fransisco
New York Jets (-6) over OAKLAND
Buffalo (+6) over CAROLINA
Chicago (+1) over CINCINNATI
New Orleans (-6) over MIAMI
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS
Arizona (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Indianapolis (-14) over ST. LOUIS

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Green Bay (-9) over CLEVELAND

Lock of the Week
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 48-42
Lock Picks: 10-8

Week 7 Power Rankings

2009-10-21T09:39:00.000-07:00

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Denver Broncos
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. New England Patriots
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Arizona Cardinals
12. Houston Texans
13. Cincinnati Bengals
14. Chicago Bears
15. New York Giants
16. Miami Dolphins
17. San Diego Chargers
18. New York Jets
19. Dallas Cowboys
20. San Francisco 49ers
21. Seattle Seahawks
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Carolina Panthers
24. Kansas City Chiefs
25. Buffalo Bills
26. Detroit Lions
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Oakland Raiders
29. Washington Redskins
30. Cleveland Browns
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. St. Louis Rams

In this case, I LOVE to say I told you so

2009-10-20T15:11:00.000-07:00

Ladies and gentlemen, the moment finally came. After 5 weeks of playing nothing but cupcakes, we saw just how dangerous the New York Giants are. The answer: not very. Every sports analyst out there seems to be shocked and appalled by the Giants lack of defense against the Saints and the fact that this game was just a complete blow out dismantling of everything Giants. Not this guy. I have been saying it all year, this Giants team has done nothing to show me that they are anything special. They have played 5 teams that rank between below average to god-awful. Now they came up against the team that I have said is the best team in football since I initially did my power rankings in week 2, and got stomped into the ground. The game wasn't even as close as the 3 touchdown lead would indicate. Drew Brees threw for 4 touchdowns, and they ran for an additional 3. How good is that Giants defense? I say not very. I can't see them winning more than nine games this season. Maybe ten if they get lucky, which they have proven they can, as with the game they stole against the overwhelmingly mediocre Cowboys.

Fantasy Impact: Pierre Thomas was more efficient running the ball, but he did not get the goal line carries. Who knows how that shakes out the rest of the way but it has to make you believe that Mike Bell is still rosterable in deeper leagues. Lance Moore had his best game of the season, but you can't really rely on any Saints receiver other than Colston. Brees likes to get the ball to the open man, and that could be anyone on any play. Hakeem Nicks had a big game for the Giants, but most came on one pass. I wouldn't rush out to add the rookie.

And now, on to the rest of the NFL:

Vikings/Ravens: This was a wonderful football game. The Vikings looked like they clearly had the game in hand, and then the Ravens came charging back. I loved it. Then CBS had to pull it off in the final minutes and I didn't get to see Steven Hauschka miss the field goal. Bottom line, yes, the Vikings are better than I initially thought and the Brett Favre experiment is working, for now. I still don't think he will hold up over the course of a 16 game season, but at this time, they have played outstanding. The Ravens defense clearly misses Rex Ryan. They are a shaddow of their former selves. However, the combination of Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are scoring points each and every week. Ray Rice is a star folks. He was my favorite target this year in fantasy and I have him on every team. I wanted him at any cost, and he will be a first round pick next year. Both of these teams are about even, home field may have swung it. Or maybe it was just Hauschka's foot.

Fantasy Impact: Shame on me for not mentioning Sydney Rice yet this season. He just had his breakout game. If he's still available in your league, I don't know why, but add him. He is Favre's favorite target. He is a top 30 receiver right now. This game was all about the Rice's, as I mentioned with Ray getting 77 on the ground on 10 carries (Willis McGahee put the nails in his own coffin with 3 yards on 7 carries) and 117 yards on 10 catches out of 11 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns, so owners don't even need to worry about him not getting into the end zone this year. I honestly see him challenging Adrian Peterson for top fantasy honors this season. Peterson had a terrific day himself, going for 143 yards, but no touchdowns. He had an ankle injury at the end of the game, but it does not appear serious.

Steelers/Browns: The Browns stink, the Steelers are still pretty good. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are both awful, and the Browns may not win again. That's all their is to really say about this one. On to the fantasy news.

Fantasy Impact: Hines Ward is quietly having an exceptional season. 8 catches for 159 in this one. If you drafted him I commend you. I personally thought he might be over the hill, but he has proven the doubters wrong again and again. Willie Parker was back, but Mendenhall got 17 carries to Parker's 7. Look for this ratio to continue. Mendenhall is the back you want, and if you haven't dropped Parker yet, you can go ahead.

Panthers/Buccanneers: This game was another one of those pointless games between two awful teams. Its not worth spending any time on.

Fantasy Impact: Steve Smith (CAR) has said that he is no longer an asset to Carolina. Umm, not exactly a ringing endorsement to his fantasy prospects. His stock is plummeting, so if anyone out there still believes, you'll be able to get him cheap. I'm not one who does. Deangelo Williams had the day you drafted him for, finally. He'll be fine.

Chiefs/Redskins: The Chiefs are bad. The Redskins are worse. Moving on.

Fantasy impact: Larry Johnson had a serviceable game, but I still don't think he's rosterable. Clinton Portis averaged 7.3 yards per carry, but that isn't saying much against the Chiefs run defense. Jason Campbell was pulled, but he remains the starter, so if you are relying on him as a back up in 2 QB leagues, you can still keep him. That's about the only reason you'd want him on your team though.

Rams/Jaguars: I picked the Jaguars in my survival pools this week and they game me quite a scare. However, they pulled it out. Poor Rams. This is 16 in a row for them, and they have performed worse than the Lions over that time frame. Can they win a game? We'll see.

Fantasy Impact: MJD is showing us all that he can in fact carry a full load. 33 carries, 133 yards, 3 touchdowns. Outstanding work, and if you faced him, I'm willing to bet the outcome wasn't favorable. Mike Sims-Walker game back from his one game suspension and once again went over the century mark in yards. Bold prediction: He is a top 10 wide receiver by the end of the year in per game fantasy points. Torry Holt also had a nice game, catching 5 for 101 yards. All of the scores went to Jones-Drew though. Stephen Jackson has to get into the end zone sooner or later right? At least he is putting up yards and actually staying on the field. That should be all his owners really want at this point.

Texans/Bengals: Is it just me, or are these the two hardest teams to judge in the whole NFL? I can't figure them out from week to week. They either come out very strong or very lackluster. I think if they played 10 times, they would go 5-5. Both teams could be Super Bowl contenders on a good day, or in the bottom third of the league on a bad one. These teams are going to be very interesting to watch the rest of the way.

Fantasy Impact: Matt Schaub is making his bid to be a top 5 fantasy QB this season. He qualifies right now, and a few more games like this could solidify that campaign. Andre Johnson broke the Bengals string of shutting down number 1 receivers, going for 135 on 8 carries. Steve Slaton was much more effective through the air than on the ground, but you loved his day regardless of how he got it done. Owen Daniels scored two touchdowns, much to my delight (loved him this year) and is making a case to break into the Gates/Gonzalez/Witten group of tight ends on draft day. Maybe he'll even surpass them? For Cincinnati, Cedric Benson was finally stopped, gaining only 44 yards on 16 carries. I doubt anyone thought that would come from Houston. The sell high window may be closing (I will never advise buying Benson). If Andre Caldwell is available in your league and you need a wide receiver, he is a good option. Its pretty obvious he has become the number 2 option for Carson Palmer, and Chris Henry is nowhere in sight, confirming my pre-draft thinking that he'd be a bust.

Packers/Lions: The Packers come off the bye with a beatdown of the Lions. They dominated in every way, especially defensively, only giving up 149 total yards. I'm not giving up on the Packers for this season. I still think they are serious Super Bowl contenders.

Fantasy Impact: Calvin Johnson didn't play and his owners can only hope his injury isn't very serious. They, and the Lions for that matter, need Megatron to come back and perform. They had no offense with him and Stafford out of the lineup. Their bye is coming at the best time for them.

Cardinals/Seahawks: Ok, so I was wrong about this one. The Cardinals definitely still have something left in the tank and Seattle is not the bounce back team. I thought home field would still meant something in Seattle, but they only had 128 total yards against Arizona's defense. Arizona doesn't even have an average defense! That is atrocious. I can't tell you how bad the Seahawks played in this one, words can't describe it.

Fantasy Impact: Anquan Boldin got hurt in this one and might miss some time. Steve Breaton is full healthy however and looks like a great option for Arizona, getting 77 yards and a touchdown. Add him if someone in your league dropped him earlier in the season. Don't add any Seahawks.

Raiders/Eagles: These are the games that show why you can't beat the house. Why Las Vegas stays in business. Why gamblers rarely ever make money. There was no reason the Raiders would beat the Eagles in this one. On paper, they were thoroughly dominated in every conceivable way. They were my lock of the week. Many were leaving their survival pool lives on the backs of the Eagles. And then, they lost. I don't think this tells us anything about either team. The Raiders are still bad, the Eagles are still good, but I have to wonder if Andy Reid can lead this team back to a Super Bowl if he is letting his team roll over against a team that was running backwards in every way. Shame on you Eagles. If you lose to the Raiders, you did it to yourself.

Fantasy Impact: I apologize for saying you could drop Zach Miller. I thought his quarterback and injuries would really hamper a tight end that I really liked going into the year. I feel your pain those who did drop him, as he was a killer on Sunday. 139 yards and a touchdown. He might still be available, and if he is, you can add him back, but don't expect this every week. Don't ask me why the Eagles weren't effective. Play calling maybe? I didn't watch the game so its tough to put my finger on it, but I wouldn't be too worried.

Patriots/Titans: Yeah, so my team is terrible. So what? They should be starting Vince Young and seeing what they have. The secondary is hurt and bad, they can't rush the passer, and they certainly couldn't move the ball in the snow. The Patriots are still the Patriots and Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. He won me a fantasy matchup and I knew he'd go off. The Titans just don't have it. Please don't get rid of Jeff Fisher, its not his fault they stink. I'm rooting for the draft! This was a predictable game, only I didn't quite expect the Patriots to run it up so much, but hey, this is the NFL and I think if you can't stop them, they have every right to keep scoring.

Fantasy Impact: Hmm... the Patriots all did awesome and the Titans all did nothing. Ok so its not that simple. Sammy Morris got hurt, opening the door for Laurence Maroney to be THE guy running the ball. If you trust him, add him, but only if you really need to. He's still tough to put a lot of stake in, even though he performed well along with everyone else on his team. Chris Johnson is the only guy you can rely on on that Titans team for fantasy purposes. Unless Vince Young comes in and starts throwing actual complete passes. What a miserable game.

Jets/Bills: Ya think maybe we were all a little too quick to crown Mark Sanchez king of New York? They beat an enigmatic Houston team, a bad Titans team (which was close) and the Patriots before they were the Patriots again. Ever since they have gone 0-3 and Sanchez has looked, well, like a rookie. I didn't expect the Jets to be good for precisely this reason, and if he doesn't get back to playing a serviceable game, they could end up losing a whole lot more games and wasting a great defense. 5 picks is ridiculous.

Fantasy Impact: Sanchez totally wasted a brilliant 210 yard game from Thomas Jones. He continues to prove me wrong. I have never liked him, especially this year, but he makes me look silly. The reason I thought he would sharply decline, aside from his age, is Leon Washington, but they have been able to coexist nicely. Sanchez just kept giving the ball right back before they could score, so Jones got the lone touchdown for the Jets. Dustin Keller was targeted 10 times and only caught two balls. I'm giving him one more week to get on track. If he doesn't do something against the Raiders, I say drop him. Trent Edwards suffered a concussion and Ryan Fitzpatrick took over. He should at least start next week, and possibly beyond, if you are desperate in a 2 QB league.

Falcons/Bears: I like this Falcons team a lot. A lot of people seem to not be buying them as an elite team but I absolutely am. The Bears are a good team that could be undefeated if they weren't faced with a tough early schedule. Very good for a Sunday night game. Ultimately, I think the better team won. The defenses were the story, and Atlanta proved they aren't just a high flying offense. Cutler threw well for the Bears, but also threw two picks which were big for Atlanta's D. Good game, proved both teams are legit, that's about all.

Fantasy Impact: Both top 4 picks in this game underperformed, but especially Forte. I still say he's a buy low candidate. He can't be this bad all year. He just can't. Greg Olsen got in the end zone, a good sign for his owners.

Broncos/Chargers: I really liked the Chargers at home coming off a bye, but Norv Turner just killed them. Mismanaging his players, calling bad time outs, bad plays. The guy just sucks. I said that I'd never make another NFL prediction if they didn't win the AFC West. Well, I'm kicking myself now for not remembering the fact that Norv Turner can single handedly bring this team crashing down. I also didn't think the Broncos would be anywhere close to this good. I still think the Chargers are a good football team and will challenge the Broncos out west (and of course I used hyperbole preseason) but if they keep playing like this, it doesn't look good. The Broncos just look fantastic in every way. Who knew Kyle Orton was the next Peyton Manning? How do the Bears fans feel right now?

Fantasy Impact: Ladanian Tomlinson actually had a serviceable game, with 70 on the ground and 30 through the air. This still isn't the guy you drafted, and I do mean you, I wasn't going anywhere near him as you know by now. Over the hill LT will never be a star again. Tony Scheffler should be added if you are looking for a tight end. Kyle Orton is making a case to start in 10 team leagues. If he has a good match up, you might want to role with him.

That's all for me tonight. Power Rankings up tomorrow, Picks on Saturday this week! Stay tuned

Week 6 Picks

2009-10-15T08:34:00.000-07:00

Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI
GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Detroit
Baltimore (+3) over MINNESOTA
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
Carolina (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE (-10) over St. Louis
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Tennessee
NEW YORK JETS (-10) over Buffalo
ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago
SAN DIEGO (-4) over Denver

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New York Giants
Lock of the Week
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND

Last Week: 6-8
Overall: 40-36
Lock Picks: 8-7

Week 6 Power Rankings

2009-10-15T08:20:00.000-07:00

No Column this week, no recap, no nothing. I'm still too angry/depressed/crushed beyond recognition over the devastating way the Red Sox ended their season at Fenway Park on Sunday. You'll have to settle for Power Rankings, picks to come later. One thing we definitely learned this week though, those Broncos are for real, the rankings will reflect that.

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Denver Broncos
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. New England Patriots
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11. New York Giants
12. New York Jets
13. San Diego Chargers
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Chicago Bears
16. Seattle Seahawks
17. Arizona Cardinals
18. Dallas Cowboys
19. San Francisco 49ers
20. Miami Dolphins
21. Houston Texans
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Carolina Panthers
25. Detroit Lions
26. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Washington Redskins
28. Buffalo Bills
29. Cleveland Browns
30. Oakland Raiders
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. St. Louis Rams

Week 5 Picks

2009-10-09T15:53:00.000-07:00

An actual column to go with the picks this week! Its the least I could do considering the abysmal performance from last week. Here's hoping I come through a little better this time around:

KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas
As I wrote in my weekly review column, I don't think Dallas is a good team. I think Kansas City is a horrible team, and think the Cowboys should win the game, but it won't be by more than 8 points. I actually expect a nice game from Matt Cassel in this one. Dallas has a tough time against the pass and he is due to show us what he can really do. KC keeps it close enough to cover.

CAROLINA (-4) over Washington
This game sucks. Both teams are exceptionally bad and I wouldn't want to watch a minute of it. I think Carolina is actually slightly better and they are at home so I think they can win this game, but it will be ugly. Really, who knows when two awful teams get together. We'll really figure out which is worse.

PHILADELPHIA (-15.5) over Tampa Bay
You know I love Philadelphia and hate Tampa Bay. As with Minnesota, this line couldn't be high enough. I can't see Tampa hanging anywhere close to this Eagles team, especially with McNabb back. This one is over before it starts.

Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Oakland looks awful and they are hurting, but so are the Giants. Eli has been suffering from plantar fasciitis all week and if he plays, it will bother him. I don't think the Giants are that good even with a healthy Eli. Of course, I think it will be enough to get them past the Raiders, but it will be within 2 touchdowns. I expect a low scoring game as the Giants just try and salt this one away and control the clock.

BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
I hate these games where two distinctly awful teams play each other. What are they playing for? Buffalo is a little less bad, and they are at home. I expect them to run all over Cleveland's defense. That moral victory against Cincinnati earns Cleveland no points in my book. Buffalo shouldn't struggle.

Cincinnati (+8.5) over BALTIMORE
Cincinnati responded in week two after a tough loss to Denver in week one. I see more of the same happening here after narrowly beating an awful Cleveland team last week. I think they come back fired up, ready to go, and I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Baltimore outright. I definitely think it will be within a touchdown so take all those points.

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANSISCO
I think the Falcons are a better team than the 49ers and they are the underdogs in this one. The Niners are coming off a blowout over the Rams and now they have to come back and play a fresh and hungry Falcons team coming off a bye. I just think everything points to the Falcons in this one.

New England (-3.5) over DENVER
This is the game where we find out if Denver is for real. I just don't think they are. They could certainly prove me wrong, but the Patriots proved that they can beat anyone in football when they handled the Ravens last week. The master beats the student in this one.

Houston (+5.5) over Arizona
I think the Texans win this game. They are heating up and Arizona just doesn't impress me. Look for lots of points but Houston is going to put a dagger in Arizona's hopes that they are as good as they were last year and finally get people to start taking them seriously. If I had to pick an underdog to win, they are it.

Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE
I'm as baffled as Vegas is with this game. I think Seattle is a decent team that might be able to turn their season around. But I also saw Jacksonville demolish Tennessee last weekend. I am thinking they can ride that to a win in this game, and they are a slight underdog at the moment.

New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
This is going to be a gritty, hard-nosed game won by defense. That is why I am taking the Jets. They have the better defense, Miami will struggle to score on them, and I trust Sanchez more than Henne not to kill his team. Should be a close game then.

Second Runner-Up Lock of the Week
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT
I can't see how Detroit is going to move the ball against Pittsburgh's defense. They may have to start Culpepper and Polamalu might be back in the Steeler's lineup so I really can't see them putting up too many points. Conversely, they gave up 48 to the Bears and I see no reason they have any better luck against the Steelers. This one won't be close.

First Runner-Up Lock of the Week
Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE
Indy is absolutely rolling. They are red hot and Tennessee is about as cold as can be. This isn't the team to bounce back against. It really could get ugly. Peyton is putting together an unbelievable season. That doesn't bode well for a team that can't stop the pass. It will be a hard game for me to watch.

LOCK OF THE WEEK
Minnesota (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS
St. Louis lost by 35 to San Fransisco. Minnesota beat Green Bay by 7. St. Louis is a winless team that is arguably the worst in the league. Minnesota is undefeated and playing great football. Sometimes, its really easy. I'd take Minnesota -20. AP is going to go off in this one. If you are facing him in fantasy this week, don't get your hopes up.

Last Week: 4-10
Overall: 34-28
Lock Picks: 6-6

NFL Power Rankings

2009-10-07T16:54:00.000-07:00

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. New England Patriots
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. New York Jets
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Atlanta Falcons
11. Green Bay Packers
12. Denver Broncos
13. Chicago Bears
14. New York Giants
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Houston Texans
17. San Francisco 49ers
18. Arizona Cardinals
19. Dallas Cowboys
20. Jacksonville Jaguars
21. Tennessee Titans
22. Seattle Seahawks
23. Miami Dolphins
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Detroit Lions
27. Washington Redskins
28. Oakland Raiders
29. Kansas City Chiefs
30. Cleveland Browns
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. St. Louis Rams

NFL Week in Review

2009-10-07T11:38:00.000-07:00

What a strange and crazy week 4 we had! It definitely wreaked havoc on my picks (hey we all have an off week)! I don't entirely know what to make of most of the games, but here's what I've got for you:

Ravens/Patriots
Wes Welker was back and Tom Brady loved it. He was targeted 10 times in this game and I have to say that makes a serious difference in this offense. They proved by beating the Ravens that they can still hang with anyone in this league. That is two wins in a row over quality teams coming off the loss to the Jets. Both of these teams will be fine moving forward.

Fantasy Impact: Welker did only have 48 yards but those in PPR leagues continue to love him, getting 6 catches on the day. Ray Rice continues to produce a ton of yards without the touchdowns, which has to be both rewarding and frustrating for his owners (and I own him in a ton of leagues so I know). He is so close to being a stud, but that pesky McGahee is in his way. Derrick Mason caught 7 passes on 11 targets including a touchdown and proved why he's not ready to leave the game just yet. You still want nothing to do with the New England backfield.

Buccaneers/Redskins
This is the type of game that makes me want to throw up. These teams are just terrible. Someone had to win and the Bucs proved why they are slightly worse. The only reason the Redskins have one win, let alone two is because they have had such an easy schedule. Neither team is worthy of a win, at least Tampa doesn't have any to show. Josh Johnson showed that he wasn't much better than Leftwich as their offense had a miserable time moving the ball. Campbell wasn't much better. Why am I still talking about this?

Fantasy Impact: Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are rewarding their owners. Antonio Bryant came back and got in the end zone, but really, anyone worth owning on these crappy teams is owned, so there was very little fantasy relevance.

Titans/Jaguars
I don't know what has happened to my Titans, but they stink this season. To get spanked by a mediocre Jacksonville team is unacceptable. They just can't stop anyone through the air. They have always been a defensive-minded team and that seems to be gone. I think its certainly time to give up on any playoff hopes they had and it really is a shame. They are actually moving the ball pretty well and the rookie Kenny Britt really looks sharp out there. Unfortunately this just isn't their year. Its not like its the Jaguars year either, but they were just better in this one.

Fantasy Impact: Like I said, Kenny Britt has been really good and should only get better as the season progresses. Nate Washington got into the end zone once again and he is also a definitely fantasy relevant receiver in Tennessee. They didn't have two fantasy ownable receivers all of last season. This is partly due to talent, and partly because they are behind in games and need to throw the ball a lot more. You better have added Mike Sims-Walker when I told you too. Seriously, he has been great. 11 targets when no other Jacksonville receiver had more than 5. He is THE guy.

Raiders/Texans
The Texans came through easily in this one as one game I actually got right. They kept me alive in my survivor pools and proved that its really easy to beat the Raiders. Like, really easy. Because they have a quarterback that should be in the CFL. Not to mention their best running back is going to miss 2-4 weeks and their best receiver, tight end Zach Miller is also hurt. They are a bad team fully healthy, they are appallingly bad when banged up. The Texans finally got Steve Slaton going (and they get a big thank you from his patient fantasy owners) for 2 touchdowns, one on the ground and one through the air. That is all they would need.

Fantasy Impact: The big impact comes from the injuries for the Raiders. With McFadden out, I like Michael Bush to get a boost in carries as I just don't trust Justin Fargas. Not that either will be great, but if you need a running back, go get Bush if he's available, which he might be. Miller's injury isn't as serious, but he will still probably miss some time. There are enough tight ends out there that you should be able to drop him no problem and get a replacement.

Bears/Lions
The Lions were able to hang with them for a half, but the superior team pulled away in the second, burying the hopes of a winning streak for Lions fans. They still have a ton of issues on defense, but they are still a young rebuilding team, what did we really expect from this one?

Fantasy Impact: Matthew Stafford was hurt but you probably didn't own him anyway. With Pittsburgh coming up I wouldn't rush out and grab Daunte Culpepper either. Gotta love the big game out of Matt Forte, but it was the Lions. still, a 10 yard per carry average is amazing against any team. 121 yards on 12 carries. He didn't need to do much more. Calvin Johnson went over 100 yards for the Lions and he is just an absolute beast catching 8 balls on 12 targets. Injured Kevin Smith had 2 tds, but only 30 yards. I'm sorry if you had him on the bench, like me, not knowing if he'd play or not. He should be good to go the rest of the way, but Pittsburgh is a daunting task for him to run against. I'd keep him out.

Bengals/Browns
What do you know, the Browns ALMOST pulled off a win! Almost. This may have been their best chance too. Or maybe not, they might be a better team with Derek Anderson at the helm. Its too early to tell. They traded away Braylon Edwards to the Jets so they got rid of one cancer. They bring in Chanci Stuckey who doesn't have the upside of Edwards, but also shouldn't cause that many problems. That said, they are still very bad and may have let their one win slip in OT. The Bengals should be embarrassed, but should be able to regroup with the win. I still think they are a legitimate team, believe it or not.

Fantasy Impact: With the loss of Edwards, Muhammed Massaquoi gets a huge boost in value, especially coming off an 8 catch, 148 yard performance. He is the wide receiver add of the week. Go get him while you still can! Jerome Harrison had a big game as well. I was wrong on that situation, but so were a lot of experts. We all expected James Davis to be the guy who replaced Jamal Lewis in the inevitable injury. Well we were wrong, Harrison is the guy and he's looked great doing it. Ochocinco got in the end zone twice on only 3 catches. At least he really made them count!

Colts/Seahawks
Peyton Manning is the MVP of the league right now and its not close. He has led this Colts team back to the top of the AFC. I know it was a Seneca Wallace led Seahawks team but Peyton shredded them. He is going to shred Tennessee next weekend as well in a game I am dreading. Even with the loss of number two receiver Anthony Gonzalez that offense hasn't slowed a bit. They could be the best team in football. Even though Wallace wasn't that bad, the Seahawks still need their leader back in Hasselbeck. They are hoping for a return this week.

Fantasy Impact: TJ Houshmandzadeh led the offense for Seattle and that is very good for his owners after he got off to a relatively slow start. The 103 yard day makes me feel confident that no matter who is throwing him the ball will learn that they need to get it to him. He is by far the best they have. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie both had useful days for deep league managers and I think both should be owned before next week. Both Indy running backs reached the end zone, and continue to split the carries pretty evenly.

Giants/Chiefs
You know by now how I feel about the Giants. Until they beat a legitimate team, I am not willing to say that they are any good. The teams they have beaten have a combined record of 4-12. The 4 wins that those teams have gotten came from Tampa Bay twice, The Rams and The Carolina Panthers, all teams that are absolutely horrible and have a combined record of 0-12. So basically, the Giants are 4-0 against the easiest schedule in football. Why is everyone crowning them? They get 1-3 Oakland this week and will move to 5-0. We have an undefeated team that is completely mediocre and everyone wants to put them in the top 3 of the NFL. No way! I can't wait to see how they do against the Saints, because I predict devastation. Oh yeah, and the Chiefs are bad.

Fantasy Impact: I said it last week, but wasn't really certain. This is the week where i totally believe it: LJ is done, washed up, not even worthy of a bench spot. Drop him now. He's just bad. Remember when there was a time where you might have attempted to trick a lesser manager into trading for the wrong Steve Smith, thinking that they were getting the one who plays for Carolina but instead it was the one on the Giants? Well that Steve Smith has been a force to be reckoned with this season, far surpassing the production of the more popular Smith. I think its safe to say that he is the number one go to guy for Eli and his production will remain high for the year, and will most likely remain ahead of Carolina's Steve. What were the odds of that before the season? 10,000 to 1?

Jets/Saints
The Saints proved what a complete team they are by humiliating Mark Sanchez for 3 interceptions and only 138 yards. Most of the offense came from the defense, as the Jets also did a good job slowing down Drew Brees. The Jets live and die by preventing the other team from scoring and not making mistakes on offense. The Saints forced those mistakes, so they came out clearly on top. Teams need to force Mark Sanchez to try and beat them, because although his team is 3-1, he is not the reason why. I still think the Saints are the best team in football.

Fantasy Impact: Braylon Edwards comes to the Jets next week and adds a weapon for Sanchez. That is, if you think Edwards is a weapon. His value should be even worse here than it was in Cleveland. You never should have drafted him. He was number one on my "don't touch" list this season. Pierre Thomas sure is dangerous, proving he can do it through the ground or the air against a very good defense. I think he'll be a first round pick next season if he stays healthy.

Bills/Dolphins
So this was a matchup of two bad teams so I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it. Trent Edwards is a bad quarterback and the Bills don't seem to realize this. They are going nowhere if they think he is their QB of the future. Chad Henne was very efficient for the Dolphins and will probably have the job, but heir offense is all about the run. The Bills couldn't stop it, that's why they lost.

Fantasy Impact: If you have anything to do with the passing games for either of these teams, you made a mistake. TO, Lee Evans, Ted Ginn Jr, and both quarterbacks all stink, (probably just because the QB's stink, the WRs are affected negatively). If you have the running games, you may have hit the jackpot. Both teams have 2 fantasy relevant running backs that should be owned and usually started in all leagues.

Cowboys/Broncos
I learned one thing from this game and its pretty major: the Dallas Cowboys are not very good. I know the Broncos are 4-0 and have played very good defense, but have they really played a good team? I don't think they have. The Cowboys have proven to be mediocre at best, and they can't win a big game. Tony Romo just might not be very good. His receiving corps hasn't been good this season with the absence of Terrell Owens. Roy Williams is not a strong number one receiver and the team should be running the ball a lot more. Wade Phillips is a terrible coach. You can not tell me that Romo throwing 42 times while only running the ball 25 times is smart for this team. Its horrible. I just don't think the Cowboys are a strong team. Denver seems to be one of those teams like the Jets that will pound you with the run, not make mistakes and kill you with defense. Teams are going to need to put the ball in Kyle Orton's hands if they want to beat them. The problem the Cowboys had, is that they can't stop teams through the air. It happened against the Giants and it happened here. They just have too many flaws. There's always next year Cowboy nation.

Fantasy Impact: If you have Tony Romo, I think that you might want to trade him to some Cowboys fan that is still hopeful about the season. There has to be one in your league right? Knowshon Moreno is going to be very good. He was very effective, getting 4.6 yards per carry against a tough Cowboys run defense. They should use him more than just 14 carries a game. Marshall had a nice game, but he remains a wild card in my opinion. Tashard Choice remains a solid option as long as Felix Jones is out. Eddie Royal has been non-existent this season and that must be awful for his owners. I really don't see the Broncos throwing enough to turn him around. I hope you had a backup plan for your number 3 receiver. Maybe Muhammed Massaquoi?

Rams/49ers
The Rams knocked off the Browns for worst team in football with this one. They literally gave the game away to the 49ers. There are college teams that could beat this Rams team, I truly believe that. They did nothing right. It was all about the Niners defense, which just completely shut down anything the Rams tried to do. Other than that, there wasn't much to say about this one.

Fantasy Impact: Vernon Davis. Sigh. I don't draft you, and you burn me. Of course. Doesn't this always happen? It's almost like karma right? I give up on a player I have loved for a few years and he starts being affective that year. Oh well, at least Tight end is insanely deep and its not a team killing decision. Crabtree signed this week, but I'm not jumping on that bandwagon. Rookie receivers are risky as it is, nevermind one who has missed this much time. I can't see him doing much of anything now that he is actually in uniform. I don't even know if he's any good! Davis is the only member of that passing game I would want to own.

Steelers/Chargers
So the Steelers are still pretty good. They are still the Super Bowl Champs and it looks like Troy Polamalu should be returning to practice this week. Rashard Mendenhall was the story here, as he finally delivered a huge game in place of Willie Parker. This is the back of the future for Pittsburgh and he showed why. Phillip Rivers was great, but he also had to throw it a lot because they couldn't move the ball against the Steelers run defense. Overall, both these teams are good, the Steelers are just a little better. Plus they were at home in a must win game. They came through like champions.

Fantasy Impact: As I mentioned, the story was Mendenhall. I think he just killed any fantasy value Willie Parker had left (which I thought was none anyway) and he should at least get a 50/50 split the rest of the way even when Parker is healthy. Ladanian Tomlinson is dead. This is my greatest triumph of the fantasy season so far. I did not want him on any of my teams, even when all the experts were calling him a steal at the end of the first round. I knew he was an old, injury prone FORMER star that people were overpaying because they thought he would have something to prove. But the fact is, it doesn't matter what you have to prove when your legs have that much mileage on them. He is fantasy dead. Sorry if you listened or thought he was bouncing back. He's going to kill your team, if he hasn't already.

Packers/Vikings
And this was the big one. A game I watched from start to finish as the Packers failed again and again to stop Jared Allen from sacking their quarterback. It really was the difference in the game. Not Brett Favre. Not Adrian Peterson, it was the pass rush from Minnesota getting to Rodgers. Conversely, the Minnesota offensive line gave Favre so much time even Jemarcus Russell could have made those throws. If you can't rush the passer, and you can't protect your quarterback, you can't win. Unfortunately this was the situation, especially with the Packers down to their third string tackle to stop Allen. They were at a serious disadvantage, plus the game was on the road. I still liked their ability to move the ball but a few turnovers and of course the sacks killed their chances. It shouldn't even have been as close as it was, which is why I still don't think the Vikings are that good. I think if you put that game in Lambeau, the score is reversed. These are two stadiums where home field really matters. I think that when they meet again, the Packers will turn it around and win rather easily. Brett Favre is still healthy and alive. Wait til he gets more games in him. Aaron Rodgers is the far better of the two right now, he just had so little protection. The Packers needed to send more blitzes to try and hit Favre a few times. All these things could turn the game. You watch when they meet again, I promise the Packers take that game. In this case, the better team didn't win. Their biggest weapon wasn't even effective against the Packers run defense, only amassing 55 yards. It was frustrating to watch a superior team lose a game like this. We'll see how it ends up though, the season is still young.

Fantasy Impact: Man that Aaron Rodgers is outstanding. The story here however was young Jermichael Finley, another tight end that you can go pick up if you are disappointed in yours, or you own Zach Miller. Awesome game from him and I expect more of the same the rest of the way.

That's about it. Phillies are up 1-0 in the series already. On their way to that World Series I tell ya! Ok maybe there's a long way to go, but I like what I saw so far. Power Rankings up soon! Stay tuned!

MLB Playoff Preview

2009-10-07T11:05:00.000-07:00

Baseball's post season is finally upon us! Maybe I can redeem my preseason picks here, by picking who will win out of the teams that actually got there.

Phillies vs Rockies
I have to take the defending champs in this one. They hold a strong advantage in pitching with Lee, Hamels and J.A. Happ. I think this could be a sweep. There is too much going for the Phillies. I do like this Rockies team, but I can't see them keeping Chase Utley and Ryan Howard at bay.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have fallen apart at the end of this season and they just won't be a match for the mighty Cardinals hurlers. The Dodgers might also get swept here. Carpenter and Wainwright have been unhittable. They are the biggest strength of any playoff team. The Dodgers just aren't ready to go very far in this year's playoffs.

Yankees vs. Twins
I know a lot of people are predicting a sweep after the Twins could barely scrape by in an outstanding extra innings game last night against the Tigers. I'm not so sure however. I think the Twins will give them a series. They have so much momentum in their favor and the Yankees might get caught napping. It will all depend on C.C Sabathia. He hasn't had the best playoff track record and he will need to pitch two strong games for the Yankees to win this series. I think the Yankees take it in 5.

Red Sox vs. Angels
The Red Sox have had the Angels number. Anaheim can not seem to beat them in the post season. However, that is not why I am picking the Red Sox to win this series. That will come from the pitching of Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. They are the two best pitchers in this series, and the Sox will be tough to beat with them. Combine that with a great bullpen and just about even offenses, the Sox shouldn't struggle to eliminate the Angels once again.

NLCS
Phillies vs. Cardinals
This would be a hell of a series. I really do hope it happens because I would be riveted for every single game. I see it going 7 with the Phillies taking it and going back to the world series. I just think the bats are a little better and the pitching will hang. But it really could be either team. I do believe that whichever team wins this series is going to be very tough to beat in the World Series.

ALCS
Yankees vs. Red Sox
And here we go again. Another heart attack series for the Sox and the Yanks. They always play each other tough when everything is on the line, and we all know what happened in 2004, but here, as much as I hate to say it, I think the Yankees are poised to knock them off. The bats are too strong. I would love to see the Red Sox beat them again, but it will be really difficult, they will need Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka to come through and I don't know how well they will do. The key factor here is home field advantage, as the Sox have just not done well in Yankee Stadium this season. If they played 4 in Fenway, I'd give them the edge, but I have to move the Yankee Juggernaut on to face the Phillies.

World Series
Phillies vs. Yankees
I think the Phillies have what it takes to repeat. They are the most complete team on both offense and pitching. I know the bullpen has struggled at the back end but I just can't see that being the deciding factor. Cole Hamels is going to prove what a big game pitcher he is and the Phillies will go back to back. The only team I can see knocking them off is the Cardinals, and like I mentioned, either one of those teams could win the World Series. Look for another championship from the National League, no matter how bad they are as a whole, the teams at the top can really play.

Week 4 Picks

2009-10-01T10:12:00.000-07:00

Going to be gone again, so here's this week's picks:
Home Team in CAPS

Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
Cincinnati (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) over Seattle
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY
WASHINGTON (-7) over Tampa Bay
HOUSTON (-9.5) over Oakland
Buffalo (-2) over MIAMI
NEW ORLEANS(-7) over New York Jets
Dallas (-3) over DENVER
St. Louis (+9.5) over SAN FRANSISCO
San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore (+2) over NEW ENGLAND

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 30-18
Lock picks: 6-3

Week 4 Power Rankings

2009-09-30T14:31:00.000-07:00

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. New York Jets
7. New England Patriots
8. San Diego Chargers
9. Atlanta Falcons
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Chicago Bears
13. New York Giants
14. Minnesota Vikings
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Denver Broncos
17. Tennessee Titans
18. San Francisco 49ers
19. Arizona Cardinals
20. Houston Texans
21. Seattle Seahawks
22. Buffalo Bills
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
24. Miami Dolphins
25. Detroit Lions
26. Carolina Panthers
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Washington Redskins
29. Kansas City Chiefs
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Cleveland Browns

NFL Weekend in review: The Day Late Edition

2009-09-30T09:42:00.000-07:00

Went to the Big E, a massive fair in West Springfield, MA, yesterday, and ate til I felt sick, so the weekend NFL review is coming a day late this week. Here we go:

Packers/Rams: The Packers bounced back after their defeat to a not-so-terrible Bengals team against an absolutely terrible Rams team. When will the Rams win a game? That is tough to tell. They don't look like they can beat anyone right now and the Redskins might have been their best shot. They will be in the running for last team to win a game, if they win one at all. Marc Bulger was injured during the game, which may end up helping the team, but how much faith can you put in Kyle Boller?

Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson carried 27 times for 117 yards but didn't get into the end zone. He is going to remain the only option on the Rams you feel comfortable starting, if only because he is the only guy getting touches (also added 5 receptions for 46 yards). Aaron Rodgers had a predictably great day for Green Bay. Donald Driver led the targets for the Packers, but Greg Jennings had two 50 yard catches from his 3 targets and led the team in receiving yards. No real guys to go pick up here.

Vikings/49ers: Brett Favre's terrific final play stole the show here, and I'm sure you have all seen it by now. However, he wasn't all that efficient on the day, completing just 52% of his passes. Big news for San Fransisco is that Frank Gore will miss some time with an ankle injury. This really hurts San Fran, as they basically designed their entire offense around Gore. I said that St. Louis would struggle to win a game, but they match up against San Fransisco next week and maybe they can squeak one out against a team that lacks its best offensive weapon. Overall take on this game: both of these teams are entirely average. The Vikings will have a lot to prove against Green Bay on Monday night this week.

Fantasy Impact: Obviously the loss of Gore will hurt a lot of teams, but hopefully some of them handcuffed the back with Glen Coffee. If he is still available in your league, he should be your number one target to add this week. Vernon Davis had a breakout game for the 49ers. Maybe he has a breakout season and they finally get the guy they drafted. Wouldn't be great for me, as this is the first year I completely avoided him.

Falcons/Patriots: The Patriots prove that rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Never bet against the Pats after a loss. They always bounce back strong. The difference between this game and the other two was that they actually ran the ball effectively. Fred Taylor had 105 of the Patriots 162 yards and had more than half the carries. He was by far the most effective bac, the only one with a touchdown as well. The other thing that stood out was the Patriots defense. Only allowing 10 points to that Falcons offense is impressive. It seems a lot of people are underestimating this unit, myself included.

Fantasy Impact: Michael Turner was limited to 56 yards but he did get the ball in for a touchdown. Randy Moss seemed fine with his injury, racking up 116 yards on 10 catches. Matt Ryan tried to spread the ball around but New England's defense was very effective in stopping him, and he ended with only 199 yards. Fred Taylor certainly looked like the number one guy on the ground for New England, but can you really trust him enough to start him? I don't think you can just yet.

Titans/Jets: This one really stings the Titans. Everyone knows how hard it is to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. They have lost their three games by a combined 13 points. They could easily be 3-0 but things just haven't gone their way. They lost this game to the Jets because of two fumbled kick returns by rookie Ryan Mouton. I don't like to bash young players but really that was the reason they lost the game. Both led to scores by the Jets and the Titans outplayed them pretty thoroughly for the majority of the game. Turnovers can kill a football team and they certainly did here. I'm not trying to discredit the Jets, because they look like serious contenders and I've very impressed by them, but the Titans looked better than them in this game, except for those two fumbles. The Jets were held to just 223 yards of total offense, but because they were handed such short field position, it didn't matter. I don't think the Titans are done yet, but hey better start pulling out these close games immediately, starting with Jacksonville this week.

Fantasy Impact: Lendale White finally got into the end zone and I still think he will be the goal line back, the Titans just haven't gotten too many opportunities inside the 10 yard line. Most of their scores have been on longer plays with the explosiveness of Chris Johnson. Leon Washington continues to have just about a 50/50 split in carries with Thomas Jones. Very nice game from Jerricho Cotchery as he dominated the targets for the Jets. Justin Gage continues to be Kerry Collins' favorite target.

Chiefs/Eagles: Kevin Kolb had an outstanding game! Which means just about anyone can have an outstanding game against the Chiefs. I'm trying to find anything to like about this Chiefs team, but I can't. They are just really bad. 196 yards of total offense while giving up 420 isn't going to win you any football games. The Eagles are really good on both sides of the ball, but they didn't have McNabb or Westbrook, so this wasn't even the best Eagles team and they still got crushed. Its going to be a long year in KC.

Fantasy Impact: Is Larry Johnson droppable at this point? I think that he is. The man's better years are obviously behind him. He is getting carries but not doing anything with them. How long before Jamaal Charles starts poaching? He has been far more efficient. I think you might be wise to go grab Charles before everyone else realizes that he will be starting by the end of the season, especially in deeper leagues. If you are unhappy with your tight end, Brent Celek may be available and he has been outstanding lately.

Giants/Buccaneers: I'm not spending much time here. Beating a team as bad as Tampa Bay doesn't offer any insight to the Giants. Anyone can dominate the Bucs. The Giants controlled the clock and moved the ball against the Bucs pitiful run defense. It really shows nothing other than that the Giants beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Expect them to win again against the awful Chiefs this week. What a soft schedule they have had so far.

Fantasy Impact: If you own Buccaneers, run, run fast, run far far away. They are not going to score many points this season. They are a fantasy black hole. Ahmad Bradshaw was very efficient for the Giants.

Ravens/Browns: Another case of a really bad team. The Browns are at the bottom of the barrell. Worse than the Chiefs, worse than Tampa Bay, even worse than the Rams. This team is abysmal. They are this year's Lions. They have already pulled their quarterback, not like it will help them any. The Ravens are also very good, that didn't help them much. Look for the Browns to be terrible and the Ravens to be good, what else can anyone really say?

Fantasy Impact: Willis McGahee continued to kill me, rushing for 2 more touchdowns. Derek Mason had his first nice game of the season and I expect more. The add here is James Harrison, who got 16 carries to James Davis' 5 in place of injured Jamal Lewis. He got 52 yards against that Ravens defense.

Jaguars/Texans: This is a game that I really wish that I actually got to see. I don't know how it happened. Jacksonville should not have won this game on paper. It shouldn't have even been close. It was my lock of the week. I guess it can just be said that Houston has no answer to a strong running game. This is three games now that they have been torched on the ground. MJD had an amazing game, scoring 3 touchdowns. Conversely, Jacksonville had a hard time stopping Houston through the air, but they did just enough for the win. Houston had one more turnover and more penalties, which may have been the difference. Overall, it seems like neither of these teams will compete in the post season because of their weakness on defense.

Fantasy Impact: MJD took off, Slaton had an ok gamewith over 100 yards of offense but no touchdown. Kevin Walter was very good in his return from injury, which meant Jacoby Jones took a back seat. Mike Sims-Walker led the Jaguars in targets, receptions and receiving yards. I hope you added him when I told you too.

Redskins/Lions: Well what do you know, those Lions aren't so bad afterall! Ok, so maybe they still are, Washington is just worse. However, this Lions team really can move the ball. They are weak on defense, but they can put up points. Hopefully for them Kevin Smith isn't too badly injured. They will need him if they want to win a few more this year.

Fantasy Impact: I wouldn't be too happy to be a Clinton Portis owner right now. He looks very old this season, like his legs just aren't under him. When you see that your star player is up against the Lions defense, you think that should mean a lot of points. Well Portis was limited to just 42 yards. All the offense from Washington came from Santana Moss, who tends to be very all or nothing. He was certainly all in this game. Very good time to sell him. Bryant got more yards, catches and targets than the much more beloved Johnson, Calvin, which may be a problem if it turns out that the rookie Matthew Stafford leans on him more throughout the season.

Bears/Seahawks: The Seahawks should have won this game. They had it in their hands and they let it slip away. Two key missed field goals by Olindo Mare crushed them. I still think this is a good Seahawks team, and they proved it by almost beating Chicago without their starting quarterback. Jay Cutler does seem to be finding a bit of a rhythm in Chicago, and this Bears team should still be the second best team in the NFC North.

Fantasy Impact: I am still preaching patience on the Matt Forte front. He hasn't had a great game on the ground, but what I really liked seeing from this game was his 6 receptions for 40 yards. That is a huge part of his game and his fantasy value. He needs Cutler to find him out of the backfield, and that was very good to see them hook up 6 times. It still looks like Cutler won't favor any receiver and is looking to spread the wealth amongst all of them. Nate Burleson has been terrific
for Seattle, putting up another big game with 109 yards. Julius Jones has completely defied me and anyone else who thought he couldn't carry the full load, as he has been very effective. I'm fully on board with buying him if you can get him.

Saints/Bills: Well well well, the Saints can play defense after all. This is very, very bad news for the rest of the NFL. They are the best team in the league right now. They proved that even when Drew Brees has an off day they can score and win. They thoroughly dominated the Bills who had a very strong offensive game in weeks 1 and 2. It will be very hard to beat this team and until someone does, they will remain atop my power rankings.

Fantasy Impact: Welcome to the 2009 season Pierre Thomas! The expert darling made his presence felt after returning from his injury and with Mike Bell out with his own. Thomas put up 126 yards on only 14 carries, including 2 touchdowns. this is the guy his owners have been waiting for. Fred Jackson's value is going to take a hit next week with the return of Marshawn Lynch, but his owners knew that already. It should be about a 50/50 split to start, but if either struggles, look for that to swing.

Bengals/Steelers: As I eluded to earlier, the Bengals may not be as bad as everyone thinks. They are a crazy fluke play away from being 3-0 (against a currently 3-0 team) and they have beaten two very good teams in the Packers and Steelers. However, the rest of the way will not be easy for them. they are going to stop being looked past on the schedule and they will start getting a real shot from teams. That will happen when you knock off the defending champs. Speaking of the Steelers, I still think they will be fine. They were a Jeff Reed missed field goal away here and I wouldn't be too worried about them. They need to get Polamalu back as soon as possible, but that defense is still great and they will be fine.

Fantasy impact: I hate Cedric Benson. I just have to say it every week that he puts up good numbers. 76 and a touchdown against the Steelers? In past years he'd have gone for 11 yards total and 2 lost fumbles. What has gotten into this guy I will never be able to find out. I still say sell high. I was right on people overvaluing Chris Henry's sleeper value this year though. He has a whopping 3 receptions for 42 yards and one touchdown. Receiver Mike Wallace had 102 yards for the Steelers, but I wouldn't rush out and get him. There are better options.

Chargers/Dolphins: This was a boring predictable game. The Dolphins lost Chad Pennington for the year, but they weren't going anywhere with him anywhere. They traded for Tyler Thigpen which I think is a slight upgrade, but still, the Dolphins were a fluke last year and don't have it this year. The Chargers weren't very impressive, but they won nonetheless. I still don't know what to make of them.

Fantasy Impact: Ted Ginn Jr had 6 targets of which he converted none into a catch. That isn't good people. He is terrible. The Miami passing game is just bad and don't expect any real difference when Thigpen shows up. They are a run first team, and use both Brown and Williams, Ricky getting the lone touchdown in this one. I wouldn't want anyone from that offense. Big game from Vincent Jackson. He is becoming a top tier receiver before our eyes.

Broncos/Raiders: Wake me when the Broncos play a real team. I can't give them any credit for that 3-0 record. The only decent team they beat, they did it on a miracle catch. The Raiders stink. The defense looks strong, which is surprising, but that could just be the Raiders ineptitude.

Fantasy impact: Great job of running the ball from Buckhalter and Moreno. This is going to be a running team and both of these guys should have value going forward. I think Moreno is certainly the more valuable of the two, even though he had less yards on 7 fewer carries. He is the number 1 in that backfield, but like I said, Buckhalter will certainly get his carries. Kyle Orton is never going to throw for huge numbers. He doesn't have to in this offense, nor is he really capable of it.

Colts/Cardinals: I couldn't figure out why the Colts were underdogs in this one. They are a far better team than the Cardinals at this point, and this game really showed it. The Colts showed no hangover from the Monday night game and Peyton Manning is making a strong MVP case so far this season. He has been outstanding, as has his go to receiver Reggie Wayne. The Cardinals really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against this Colts defense. Really the game was never in doubt. I didn't think the Colts would be this good, with a new coach and no Marvin Harrison they seemed like a team in transition. Clearly, they have proven to be just as dangerous as ever.

Fantasy impact: Reggie Wayne could prove to be the league's best receiver without Marvin Harrison on the other side of the field. Pierre Garcon is stepping in as a great number 2 option for Manning as well. For the Cardinals, it looks like Steve Breaston is getting just as many looks as Fitzgerald and Boldin, which decreases the value of both of them. I'd try and find a trading partner if I were you.

Panthers/Cowboys: The Panthers looked impressive in the first half and seemed like maybe they had a chance in this one. Then they looked a lot like the Panthers in the second half. Dallas ran all over them with their third string back, Tashard Choice, after Felix Jones left with an injury. They are in big trouble. Dallas on the other hand looks like they can be a playoff team. They just can't let Tono Romo kill them. He is not one of the great quarterbacks in this league, but he doesn't have to be. This team can really run the ball and stop the run on defense, giving up only 74 to Carolina's duo of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That defense is dangerous and should keep them in a lot of games. They need to play ball control and hope that the injuries to Barber and Jones aren't really serious, even though Choice looked great. The depth will be needed in case Choice goes down himself, that trio is the key to Dallas' success this season.

Fantasy impact: Pretty much just the Dallas running game here. If Tashard Choice is available, go out and get him now. Felix Jones also looked great before he got hurt, and Barber's injury shouldn't be that serious since and he may be back next week. whoever is running the ball for Dallas is going to be effective and have fantasy value. All three should be owned in your league.

That will do it for me. I will also have new power rankings up later today so look for that, and new weekly picks up tomorrow so look for that. Until next time, sorry Browns fans, there's always next year.

This Week's football picks

2009-09-24T08:02:00.000-07:00

Giving you the football picks early this week, as I'll be away this weekend. Not going to do any analysis, just give you the pick. Here we go:
Home team in CAPS

DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington
San Fransisco (+7) over Minnesota
NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Atlanta
New York Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY
PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) over Kansas City
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland
New Orleans (-6) over Buffalo
SEATTLE (+2) over Chicago
Pittsburgh (-4) over CINCINNATI
Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND
SAN DIEGO (-6) over Miami
Indianapolis (+2.5) over ARIZONA
Carolina (+9) over Dallas
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week:
Tennessee (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
First Runner Up Lock of the Week:
Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
HOUSTON (-4) over Jacksonville

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 19-13
Lock picks: 5-1

NFL Power Rankings

2009-09-23T11:31:00.000-07:00

Look for a new one of these each Wednesday. Here are my power rankings for the NFL after two weeks.

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. San Diego Chargers
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Houston Texans
10. Tennessee Titans
11. New York Jets
12. New England Patriots
13. Dallas Cowboys
14. Minnesota Vikings
15. New York Giants
16. San Francisco 49ers
17. Chicago Bears
18. Arizona Cardinals
19. Buffalo Bills
20. Carolina Panthers
21. Seattle Seahawks
22. Cincinnati Bengals
23. Miami Dolphins
24. Denver Broncos
25. Washington Redskins
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Cleveland Browns

Weekend Recap: Are the Giants the luckiest team in football?

2009-09-22T16:22:00.000-07:00

From what I watched on Sunday night, the answer to that question is unequivocally yes. From ridiculous catches by un-named wide receivers, to insane interceptions, to Eli Manning being the first player in history to have a reverse contract year (living up to the money he's being paid only after he gets the money, rather than before) the Giants had no business beating the Cowboys in their home opener at the enormous new Cowboys Stadium.

The vaunted defense that is supposed to lead this team to a division title and maybe more allowed 31 points, including 251 rushing yards. They could not stop the run to save their lives. Fortunately for them, Wade Phillips insisted on putting the ball in Tony Romo's hands way too often. Even still, that defense did not look impressive, and if they didn't get three picks (one of with that happened to fall into the hands of the defender after taking a crazy bounce off Jason Witten's foot) they would have been crushed in this game.

The great running game staring Brandon Jacobs was shut down by Dallas. He had 58 yards, 31 of which came on one run. Ahmad Bradshaw was equally unimpressive, accumulating 37 yards on 9 carries. They couldn't control the ball, they couldn't wear down the Dallas D. This doesn't look good the rest of the way.

Now they did win the game, and I can't take that away from them. Eli just about played the game of his life. Do you really expect that kind of performance out of him every time out? I sure don't. They had to get extremely lucky to beat a better team, get every bounce to go their way, and they still only won the game on a last second field goal. Looking ahead, I would be much more confident if I were a Cowboys fan than a Giants fan.

Fantasy impact: Steve Smith and Mario Manningham are going to be the go to guys for Eli this season, especially with injuries to Hixon and Nicks. Pick them up. Tashard Choice gets a little more interesting with the injury to Marion Barber, and could be worth the add in deep leagues.

Last night we saw Peyton Manning at his most lethal. The Colts only had the ball for one quarter of the game, but that is all they needed. 295 yards on only 23 passing attempts. That said, just like the Giants, they got awfully lucky to win the game. Miami controlled the game but they don't have the talent to win when it counts. That last drive was both poorly coached and poorly played. They didn't even look like they were trying to win the game with how slow they were moving. Did Tony Sporano forget there are only 4 quarters in a football game? Ted Ginn dropped a couple of passes that would have led to a Dolphins victory, but that is why he is Ted Ginn, and these are the Miami Dolphins. Neither team impresses me going forward, but the Dolphins are worse, as this was the absolute best they had and they still couldn't get it done.

Fantasy impact: Pierre Garcon could be an interesting add in deep leagues if he cements his role as the number 2 receiver for Peyton Manning. The guy can fly and Gonzalez will be out for quite a few more more weeks.

Moving onto the non prime time games:

Patriots/Jets: The Jets proved that they are legitimate contenders and the Patriots proved that Tom Brady is not fully back yet. I am not too worried about the Pats just yet. They were without Wes Welker and that is a huge blow. He is Brady's safety net. Without him, Brady is never going to look fully comfortable. Short dump offs to Welker basically supplant the running game in this system. When he comes back healthy, expect the offense to be back to full speed. Buy low on Brady if you can.

Revis is an absolute monster at cornerback. Shutting down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in back to back weeks is about as good as it gets. This defense could be the best in the league, even better than Pittsburgh and Baltimore. It is that good. They will need their offense to come through in key situations though and I'm not willing to crown Mark Sanchez yet. 16 points against New England's bad defense isn't good.

Fantasy impact: Leon Washington and Thomas Jones had an even split in carries this week and I see a lot more of that going forward. This should really cut into Jones' fantasy value. Edelmen had quite a few targets and a decent fantasy game, but unless Welker's injury is very serious, he's not worth an add. No Patriots running back is worth owning.

Saints/Eagles: The Saints look very good. Very, very good. That offense put up 48 points on a very good defense. Can anyone keep this team under 40 points? I'm sure it will happen, but it won't be easy. Drew Brees is the best quarterback going right now.

Kevin Kolb had a lot of yards, but he wasn't good. They had to throw a ton because they were behind and he wasn't very efficient. The Eagles need McNabb back if they are going to live up to their potential.

Fantasy impact: Brian Westbrook is hurt, but of course he is. That was expected. You needed to handcuff him with McCoy before the season and if you didn't, shame on you. Mike Bell is also hurt, so watch that situation. Pierre Thomas should be back next week. 9 different receivers got a catch for the Saints, but Colston was back to being Brees' clear favorite. Brent Celek looked really good for the Eagles, going over 100 yards. Kolb may look to lean on him as long as he remains the quarterback.

Rams/Redskins: The Rams are terrible, but we already new that. What we learned from this game is that the Redskins are not much better. I vastly overrated this team. Campbell doesn't look good, Portis is clearly passed his prime, and they play in a tough division. Good to know now that they really stink.

Fantasy impact: Laurent Robinson is a solid pickup, as he seems to be the go to guy for Bulger. He won't blow anyone away, but he'll be serviceable.

Cardinals/Jaguars: Another game where I learned that a team stinks. I vastly overrated the Jags before this season. They are no good. They couldn't really have played much worse, at home, against a reeling west coast team. Kurt Warner torched them. I thought the defense was better but I was wrong. I admit that they are going straight to the basement this year. The Cardinals may have some life left in them, but this was more of the Jaguars being bad than the Cardinals being good, so I'm not going to put too much weight on this win.

Fantasy impact: Tim Hightower is looking like a pretty clear number one running back for the Cardinals, but that could change if Beanie Wells keeps doing well when he touches the ball. Mike Sims-Walker is one of the first guys I'd look for on the waiver wire if I was shopping for a wide receiver, with Troy Williamson going down for the season, he steps in as the number 2 guy and had a great game.

Panthers/Falcons: The Falcons look really strong, and the Panthers look better than expected. I didn't get to see much of this one, but Jake Delhomme may not be totally dead. Steve Smith had a great game, so if you own him, he'll be fine. Tony Gonzalez was great again, Roddy White and Michael Turner each found the end zone and the Falcons just look great. They are a lock for the playoffs and I can't wait to see how they do against the Patriots this week.

Fantasy impact: Really the only impact is that anyone you drafted in this game is going to be fine. Don't worry about Smith or Turner or Roddy White. They are all studs, nothing much more to add.

Vikings/Lions: This game didn't really reveal anything. the Lions are bad, the Vikings are decent. I don't have a ton to say. The Lions won the first half, then fell apart. Matthew Stafford did not look impressive. He still has a lot of growing pains to go through. Lets see how he does next week against the Redskins, who looked dreadful against the Rams.

Fantasy impact: Percy Harvin got in the end zone again, and seems like he may be a very nice bargain for those who drafted him late this season.

Bengals/Packers: Sigh... the classic trap game. The Packers were a huge let down against a Bengals team that showed they aren't nearly as bad as they were in week 1. This is the reason we can't overvalue week one results. Now, I still don't think the Bengals are all that good, but the Packers just didn't get up for this game and that disappoints me and the rest of their supporters this season. How Cedric Benson rushed for 141 yards is well beyond me. This guy has always been terrible, and I don't know how he's performing this well. I hope the Packers take this as a lesson that you can't roll over for anyone.

Fantasy impact: Cedric Benson a steal? That is how it looks now. He can't keep this up can he? Greg Jennings didn't get a catch but he was targeted 5 times so don't be too concerned. Cincinnati has a much better defense than anyone thought. Coles might be done.

Texans/Titans: Well this game was a fantasy football showcase. Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub put on a show. The end result was depressing as a Titans fan though. They just could not stop the passing game and that is a serious concern. This Texans offense is very powerful however and thats a big reason why the Jets look so damn good over the first two weeks. I don't think the Titans are done just yet, it is only two weeks, however going 0-3 will be a huge problem for this team, and they have those very Jets next week. Lets see how the Jets do against a team that has a good defense, which couldn't be said for the Texans or Patriots. Sanchez will have to win that game for them, which isn't something he has needed to do yet.

Fantasy impact: Steve Slaton had another abysmal day against a stout defense. Now is the time to buy low on this guy! Try and steal him away from a frustrated owner. Nate Washington is going to be Kerry Collins favorite target, and if he is available in your league, you might want to take a look in his direction.

Raiders/Chiefs: Boy this really was an ugly game. These teams are bad. JeMarcus Russell is the worst quarterback in football right now, and Cassel didn't look much better. The Raiders stole this game, but don't look for them to win too many. Its going to be hard for them to move the ball on anyone else if they can only score 13 on the Chiefs. Neither team is going anywhere fast.

Fantasy impact: It would be wise to stay away from anyone on these teams. If you own them, pray for the best, try and move them, if you don't, don't try and trade for them, and certainly don't pick up anyone who isn't owned.

Buccaneers/Bills: Nothing really learned from this game. I expected the Bills to win this rather easily and they did. Does that mean the Bills are good? No. It means the Buccaneers are very, very bad. They are one of my teams with a shot at going winless and they have done nothing at all to convince me otherwise. Fred Jackson was outstanding for the Bills and it will be tough for them to keep him off the field even after Lynch comes back from suspension. I love this kid, great player with a great story. We'll see how they play it in two weeks.

Fantasy impact: Kellen Winslow had his second straight good game for Tampa with 90 yards and a touchdown. Great late round tight end steal if you have him. No one else on Tampa can really catch the ball, and he will be targeted a lot. Both Bills wide receivers got into the end zone, but neither racked up the yards. Jackson had another huge day, of course. Tampa's backfield remains jumbled.

Seahawks/49ers: Tough game for Seattle, and for me, as I picked them as my lock of the week and they really let me down. They just had no answer for Frank Gore. He was an animal all day, racking up 207 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. It didn't help that Matt Hasselbeck fractured a rib and had to leave the game. They are going nowhere without him so he needs to get back on the field fast. Once they lost him there was really no chance of them coming back in the game. San Fran's defense could be legit, which means I will be eating a lot of crow for bashing them. Lets see how they fair against non NFC West competition. That will be the true test of how good they are.

Fantasy impact: Gore was pretty much the only thing to take out of this game, but you already knew he was great. Any doubters of his ability should be silenced by now.

Ravens/Chargers: This game went about how I expected. The Ravens offense is legit and better than it has been in years. Their defense, conversely, is not as good as it has been in years past. San Diego missed Tomlinson's ability to just take over a game with him sidelined with an injury, but they will have to get used to that as he is past his prime and doesn't really have that ability anymore. The better team won this game, but the Chargers should still run away with the AFC west. They are the best team in it by far.

Fantasy impact: Lots of fantasy impact from this one, starting with Willis McGahee. I have no idea how he's doing it, but he is their goal line guy and is getting the majority of the carries. Ray Rice is still getting his, and is a force catching the ball out of the backfield, but isn't getting into the end zone. LeRon McClain is the clear 3rd option. Sproles did not look good on the ground, but the Ravens are a great rush defense. He torched them through the air though, going for 124 yards. Vincent Jackson was awesome again, and he should be for the rest of the year. This has transformed into a pass first offense, and Sproles and Jackson will be focal points of that all year. Try and get them if you can.

Steelers/Bears: I wish I could have watched this game closer to see exactly what went wrong for the Steelers. I know they missed two field goals that would have won them the game, but that is no excuse. They should have beaten the Bears. Matt Forte was completely stalled. Cutler had a bounce back game which makes me concerned for the secondary of the Steelers without Polamalu. They should still be ok, just not nearly as potent as they were last year. They better hope he's not out the full 6 weeks. Still, this was a big let down in a game they should have won. Good job taking advantage of mistakes by the Bears.

Fantasy impact: Don't worry about Forte, he'll be just fine, he's just had horrible matchups. Look for a big game against Seattle next week. Just look what Gore did this week. Santonio Holmes is in for a breakout year, great bargain for his owners. He is Big Ben's go to guy, and should be for a long time. The Pittsburgh run game left a lot to be desired. I wouldn't be rushing out to grab Knox because I don't see anyone dominating the targets for the Bears and their are much better options out there in any league.

Broncos/Browns: And I leave you with a big giant thud! The Browns are just so bad. They can't run, they can't throw, they can't play defense. I don't know how they will beat anyone. They are legitimately terrible. I said it before the season and they have proven to be the worst team over the first two games of the season. A bad Denver team beat them by 3 touchdowns. Denver is the worst 2-0 team in the league right now.

Fantasy impact: I don't think we can take anything away from this game. I wouldn't be too happy if I owned anyone on either side though.

And that will do it. I'll be breaking down each game every Tuesday so I hope you enjoyed it. Until next time, See ya!