I hope you all enjoyed my little article on the Carl Crawford deal. But now, its back to football. Stupid Titans and their last play, last second, COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS touchdown cost me a betting win last night. They couldn't depress me more right now. Anyway, rant over, on with the picks.
Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com
JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Oakland
Every gambling stat points to the Jaguars in this one. Oakland is on the road, traveling cross country to play a 1:00 game. Plus, Jacksonville is just better at this point.
Cincinnati (+9) over PITTSBURGH
I never pick the Bengals, but this one could easily be a trap game for the Steelers, plus it should be low scoring and at least close. 9 points is way too high.
CHICAGO (+3) over New England
The Pats did put an other-worldly beat down on the Jets on Monday, but this is a hangover game, on a short week, in below 0 weather. I think the home team has a distinct advantage here.
Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO
This game is going to be the Peyton Hillis show all day long, and that should mean the Browns will win.
MINNESOTA (+3) over New York Giants
I liked the way the Vikings looked last week, but I really have no idea what will happen in this game. So I'll bet against Eli Manning.
Green Bay (-7) over DETROIT
The Lions have hit a bit of a stumbling block in their cover streak, and the Packers are going to be focused and desperate. Should be a breeze for Aaron Rodgers.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City
Desperation game for San Diego, and that doesn't bode well for the less talented Chiefs.
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over St. Louis
I like the Saints here because I think most people will take the points, but I think the Rams are awful on the road, and the Superdome will have Sam Bradford extremely rattled.
Seattle (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Two awful teams so I will take the points
NEW YORK JETS (-5) over Miami
The Jets simply MUST bounce back and win this game. I don't see any way they blow it, unless they are truly just a mediocre football team. I don't think they are, but we will find out on Sunday.
DALLAS (+3.5) over Philadelphia
the Cowboys have to be taken seriously since Garett took over the team. I think they can win this one.
Baltimore (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Because Baltimore is a vastly better team than Houston, and the game just shouldn't be close.
Second Runner-Up Lock of the Week
Atlanta (-9) over CAROLINA
Because whenever the best team in the league is playing the worst team in the league, you have to take the best team in the league, no matter how many points they are giving.
First Runner-Up Lock of the Week
Denver (-4.5) over ARIZONA
Wait, you mean John Skelton is the Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback? Say no more!
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay (-2) over WASHINGTON
LaGarett Blount is going to take this game by storm, and the Bucs should have no issues dismantling the awful Redskins, who seem to have quit on their season.
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 102-84-6
Lock Picks: 20-17
Friday, December 10, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Its a Very Merry Christmas in Red Sox Nation
I'm taking time off from my usual football only column, and switching over to baseball, just for a moment. You see, I am a huge Red Sox fan, and this has been the best off-season of my short life. Very rarely do things go exactly how you want for your favorite teams. Just look at how the Titans have completely collapsed in what was a once promising season. So for this week, I am focusing my efforts on Carl Crawford, the player I have been wishing for all off-season, to end up in a Sox uniform. Because as of last night, he is officially being delivered, first class, to Boston.
Let me start by briefly discussing Boston's other tremendous acquisition, Adrian Gonzalez. I loved the move, obviously, to acquire Gonzalez and make him the first baseman of the present and future in Boston. He is a supreme talent, a true power threat, who will likely hit 45 home runs playing his home games in Fenway Park. Theo Epstein gave up a hell of a package of prospects to get him, but he will be worth it. However, it simply wouldn't have been enough to go into the 2011 season with Adrian as the team's only big addition. They needed to sign Crawford. I've been doing nothing but researching, debating, and preparing for the rest of this hot stove season, and it all came back to one thing: the Red Sox need to sign Carl Crawford, and sign him now.
Last night, I was given my Christmas gift (and well, so was Crawford, a gift of $142 million). I really couldn't be happier or more excited that the Sox front office made what I consider to be the perfect move for the future of the organization. Why is signing Crawford so great you ask? Isn't it a little crazy to pay a player who isn't a power bat $20 million a season? And what about the Sox getting a little too left-handed for their own good? None of these things concern me, and I'll tell you why.
The Red Sox had very few holes in their lineup prior to the signing of Crawford. The fact that they let Victor Martinez walk to the Detroit Tigers tells us that they were okay with having a lesser offensive catcher in the young Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I'll readily admit that I was upset by this, as they had a potent bat in a position where most people do not, but Theo is enamored with this kid, and I'd like to see what he can do. Obviously they had their reasons not to give Victor the money he was looking for.
So that is hole number one, but its also a hole for just about every team in the league, which makes it less of a big deal. Now certainly, the bullpen needs work, and that will come later, for a lot cheaper dollars and on a one or two year basis. Middle relief isn't something teams generally shell out big bucks for, and I don't expect the Red Sox to start now. So really, the Sox had one and only one spot remaining in their lineup that you could argue that there was an opening, and a legitimate need, for a dramatic improvement in talent: left field. The exact position of the best free agent position player on the market, Carl Crawford. What are the Red Sox to do in this scenario? Who is the best option for the Red Sox at the left field position? Let's break down their options:
Option A) Roll with what you already have. Mike Cameron, the 38 year old outfielder who was never healthy last year and should be a fourth outfielder at best. Or young, budding outfielder Ryan Kalish, who could certainly benefit from another year in AAA, and would only be a short term solution because in all likelihood, he is the right fielder on this team once J.D. Drew's contract runs out after this year.
Option B) Sign a lesser free agent outfielder. Who was out there if you decide you don't want to extend a huge contract for this season? Couldn't be Jayson Werth, the Nationals already snatched him up with a ridiculous 7 year, 126 million dollar deal. Magglio Ordonez was talked about. He will be 37 next year, is coming off a year in which he managed to hit 12 home runs and drive in 59 runs. He has been in decline for a few years now, and has health problems. How much better is he than Cameron? what about old friend-turned-enemy Johnny Damon? Well he is 36, and already turned down a trade to go back to Boston last year. I just don't see how bringing him back in makes the team any better. And guess what? These are the best names on the outfield market in the winter of 2010!
Option C) Why not make a trade for an outfielder? Well there were a couple names talked about in potential trades, but of course, that would mean giving up assets. Carlos Beltran's name was out there, but at $18 million, and coming off two injury riddled seasons, how much more of a risk could there be? I was a little more open to the option of Josh Willingham from Washington, but he is also going to be 32 and a free agent next year, so you'd likely be giving up prospects for a one year rental, and I'm never a fan of that.
Option D) Couldn't you just wait til next year and try and find a left fielder in next year's class? Let's take a look at what our options would have been had the Sox taken this course of action:
Bobby Abreu LAA *
Jose Bautista TOR
Carlos Beltran NYM
Milton Bradley SEA
Mike Cameron BOS
Ronny Cedeno PIT
Ryan Church PIT
Jack Cust OAK
David DeJesus KC
Matt Diaz ATL
J.D. Drew BOS
Jeff Francoeur TEX
Jonny Gomes CIN
Gabe Gross OAK
Carlos Guillen DET
Corey Hart MIL
Raul Ibanez PHI
Conor Jackson ARZ
Ryan Ludwick SD
Nate McLouth ATL *
Juan Pierre CWS
Juan Rivera LAA
Cody Ross SF
Grady Sizemore CLE *
Nick Swisher NYY *
Josh Willingham WAS
On this list include both Beltran and Willingham, like I mentioned before, more rental than long term fix. Any player with an asterisk by their name means that the player's team holds an option on them, so that potentially eliminates Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore and Nick Swisher, 3 of the very few names that have any value at all on this list. So what are we left with? A group of "also rans" and fourth outfielders, and one guy who could be a stud, or a dud this season, named Corey Hart. But if Hart repeats his numbers from last season, someone would be throwing a $100+ million dollar deal at him next year, as by far the best outfielder on the market. Is this really a smart option for the Red Sox? Who would you rather have at $100+ million, Corey Hart or Carl Crawford?
No. Of course its not smart. The only smart move the Red Sox could make would be...
Option E) Sign Carl Crawford, the best free agent position player available, who happens to play the exact position of your biggest need.
And that is precisely what the Red Sox did. They filled a gigantic hole, and they fill it for the next 7 years. Getting back to the question of money. Is $142 million excessive for a player like Crawford, whose career high in home runs is 19? No, its really not. Its what the market has dictated, especially following the Werth deal. Crawford is a better player, so he had to get at least the same length, and more money. If the Red Sox wanted the player, they had to pony up the money, and they needed to make the move now, before the Yankees got more involved than they already were. As I laid out, your future options at the position just aren't there. So if the Red Sox had to go out and overpay to fill a need, they could afford to do so, and that is exactly why I love the deal so much, because they can make this signing, and still remain within a budget very similar to the 168 million dollars they paid out in 2010, which is precisely why all the Yankee fans out there that are making comments of "Congratulations on becoming exactly what you always said you hated" are way off base. Let me break it down for you:
Coming off the books in 2010:
Mike Lowell- $12.5 million
Adrian Beltre- $8 million
Victor Martinez- $7.7 million
Julio Lugo- $9 million
Just that alone accounts for a 37.2 million dollar clearing of salary. Now of course, these are not the only salaries changing. John Lackey's contract is front loaded, and will make 3 million less than last year. Several players have escalating salaries, like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis, adding a couple million here and there, plus arbitration eligible raises. I'll save you all of the gory details and tell you this: the final tally when all is said and done, including Beckett and Varitek's new contracts, Ortiz' option, the numerous smaller contracts that are no longer on the team, and the 6 million owed to Adrian Gonzalez this year, turns out to be nearly 30 million dollars coming off the books this season. That's more than enough to sign Crawford for 20 million, and even have 10 million left over to fill out the 40-man roster and sign a couple of relief pitchers! Even if they manage to jump up a couple extra million filling out the roster, its highly unlikely that they will break the $175 million threshold. Whereas if the Yankees make a huge signing with Cliff Lee, and they are expected to, that combined with the return of Andy Petitte and filling out their roster will give them a minimum of 220 million dollar budget, a good 45-50 million dollars more than that of the Red Sox. This is where the two teams differ. The Red Sox run their books as smart businessmen, knowing when they have money to spend and how to stay within budget. The Yankees run their business as a group with bottomless pockets, handing out ridiculous and borderline irresponsible contracts at any cost to win the World Series right now, future be damned. Which is why the Red Sox will never spend on the level of the Yankees, and why the Yankees budget will always continue to rise every year that they are in existence. They will never be on equal footing.
Now of course, Adrian Gonzalez is not going to be a 6 million dollar player for long. He is probably going to get a massive contract, lets say about $22 million/year after the season opens (as the Red Sox are smart, they will not announce the contract until after opening day, and will not have to factor in the contract extension to this year's luxury tax.) So this number would put the Red Sox way over their 2010 number of $168 million right? No, of course not. The Red Sox have even more money coming off the books next season. Here's a look at the contracts coming off the books at the end of 2011:
J.D. Drew- $14 million
David Ortiz- $12.5 million
Jonathan Papelbon- $10+ million
Mike Cameron- $7.75 million
Marco Scutaro- $4 million
That's $48 million, a truly staggering number. Factoring in the 16 million dollar raise that Gonzalez is likely to get, you are still left with 32 million dollars to play with. And here's the key: three of the players that you are losing here, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon and Marco Scutaro, are being replaced by players from the Red Sox own minor league system, at very cheap dollars. Probably a total of $4-6 million combined, in Daniel Bard, Ryan Kalish and Jose Iglesias. So you are looking at 26-28 million additional dollars to fill out a roster, find a right handed DH and a new 4th outfielder, along with whats likely to be another bullpen arm or two. Sound reasonable? I thought so too.
So really, the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez merely come at the perfect time for this organization. Epstein was killed when he called 2010 a "bridge year," but that is precisely what it was. A bridge to 2011 and beyond. To a time where the Red Sox have enough money coming off their books where they can spend 42 million dollars combined per year on their new acquisitions, and still somehow manage to lighten the payroll in the process. Or at worst, keep it the same.
The Red Sox know how valuable Crawford will be to their team in the next seven years. Manager Terry Francona has already called him a "game-changer." He is a true superstar, and they just don't come around that often. The Red Sox managed to get two of them this off season, which obviously leads to the Yankee comparisons, and so be it. But its funny to think that come 2012, the Red Sox will have a lineup with a very home grown feel:
C Jarrod Slatalamacchia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Jose Iglesias
3B Kevin Youkilis
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Ryan Kalish
LF Carl Crawford
DH ?
How many of these players did the Red Sox "buy" in their quest for the World Series? One: Carl Crawford. The rest either came up through the Red Sox system, or were acquired in a trade for prospects of their system. Not to mention the likes of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, or Daniel Bard, the three most important pitchers on this team. No, this lineup hasn't been bought, its been developed and planned, with the utmost detail and craftsmanship of a brilliant general manager. Carl Crawford just happened to be the perfect piece to acquire at the perfect time, to add to a team of players that are a testament to the development of the Red Sox farm system. Sometimes, you have to strike while you still can, the Yankees do this every year, sometime multiple times a year. The Red Sox waited patiently, and now it was their time. Carl Crawford was their answer. And it is a very merry Christmas indeed, for Red Sox nation. April can't get here soon enough.
Let me start by briefly discussing Boston's other tremendous acquisition, Adrian Gonzalez. I loved the move, obviously, to acquire Gonzalez and make him the first baseman of the present and future in Boston. He is a supreme talent, a true power threat, who will likely hit 45 home runs playing his home games in Fenway Park. Theo Epstein gave up a hell of a package of prospects to get him, but he will be worth it. However, it simply wouldn't have been enough to go into the 2011 season with Adrian as the team's only big addition. They needed to sign Crawford. I've been doing nothing but researching, debating, and preparing for the rest of this hot stove season, and it all came back to one thing: the Red Sox need to sign Carl Crawford, and sign him now.
Last night, I was given my Christmas gift (and well, so was Crawford, a gift of $142 million). I really couldn't be happier or more excited that the Sox front office made what I consider to be the perfect move for the future of the organization. Why is signing Crawford so great you ask? Isn't it a little crazy to pay a player who isn't a power bat $20 million a season? And what about the Sox getting a little too left-handed for their own good? None of these things concern me, and I'll tell you why.
The Red Sox had very few holes in their lineup prior to the signing of Crawford. The fact that they let Victor Martinez walk to the Detroit Tigers tells us that they were okay with having a lesser offensive catcher in the young Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I'll readily admit that I was upset by this, as they had a potent bat in a position where most people do not, but Theo is enamored with this kid, and I'd like to see what he can do. Obviously they had their reasons not to give Victor the money he was looking for.
So that is hole number one, but its also a hole for just about every team in the league, which makes it less of a big deal. Now certainly, the bullpen needs work, and that will come later, for a lot cheaper dollars and on a one or two year basis. Middle relief isn't something teams generally shell out big bucks for, and I don't expect the Red Sox to start now. So really, the Sox had one and only one spot remaining in their lineup that you could argue that there was an opening, and a legitimate need, for a dramatic improvement in talent: left field. The exact position of the best free agent position player on the market, Carl Crawford. What are the Red Sox to do in this scenario? Who is the best option for the Red Sox at the left field position? Let's break down their options:
Option A) Roll with what you already have. Mike Cameron, the 38 year old outfielder who was never healthy last year and should be a fourth outfielder at best. Or young, budding outfielder Ryan Kalish, who could certainly benefit from another year in AAA, and would only be a short term solution because in all likelihood, he is the right fielder on this team once J.D. Drew's contract runs out after this year.
Option B) Sign a lesser free agent outfielder. Who was out there if you decide you don't want to extend a huge contract for this season? Couldn't be Jayson Werth, the Nationals already snatched him up with a ridiculous 7 year, 126 million dollar deal. Magglio Ordonez was talked about. He will be 37 next year, is coming off a year in which he managed to hit 12 home runs and drive in 59 runs. He has been in decline for a few years now, and has health problems. How much better is he than Cameron? what about old friend-turned-enemy Johnny Damon? Well he is 36, and already turned down a trade to go back to Boston last year. I just don't see how bringing him back in makes the team any better. And guess what? These are the best names on the outfield market in the winter of 2010!
Option C) Why not make a trade for an outfielder? Well there were a couple names talked about in potential trades, but of course, that would mean giving up assets. Carlos Beltran's name was out there, but at $18 million, and coming off two injury riddled seasons, how much more of a risk could there be? I was a little more open to the option of Josh Willingham from Washington, but he is also going to be 32 and a free agent next year, so you'd likely be giving up prospects for a one year rental, and I'm never a fan of that.
Option D) Couldn't you just wait til next year and try and find a left fielder in next year's class? Let's take a look at what our options would have been had the Sox taken this course of action:
Bobby Abreu LAA *
Jose Bautista TOR
Carlos Beltran NYM
Milton Bradley SEA
Mike Cameron BOS
Ronny Cedeno PIT
Ryan Church PIT
Jack Cust OAK
David DeJesus KC
Matt Diaz ATL
J.D. Drew BOS
Jeff Francoeur TEX
Jonny Gomes CIN
Gabe Gross OAK
Carlos Guillen DET
Corey Hart MIL
Raul Ibanez PHI
Conor Jackson ARZ
Ryan Ludwick SD
Nate McLouth ATL *
Juan Pierre CWS
Juan Rivera LAA
Cody Ross SF
Grady Sizemore CLE *
Nick Swisher NYY *
Josh Willingham WAS
On this list include both Beltran and Willingham, like I mentioned before, more rental than long term fix. Any player with an asterisk by their name means that the player's team holds an option on them, so that potentially eliminates Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore and Nick Swisher, 3 of the very few names that have any value at all on this list. So what are we left with? A group of "also rans" and fourth outfielders, and one guy who could be a stud, or a dud this season, named Corey Hart. But if Hart repeats his numbers from last season, someone would be throwing a $100+ million dollar deal at him next year, as by far the best outfielder on the market. Is this really a smart option for the Red Sox? Who would you rather have at $100+ million, Corey Hart or Carl Crawford?
No. Of course its not smart. The only smart move the Red Sox could make would be...
Option E) Sign Carl Crawford, the best free agent position player available, who happens to play the exact position of your biggest need.
And that is precisely what the Red Sox did. They filled a gigantic hole, and they fill it for the next 7 years. Getting back to the question of money. Is $142 million excessive for a player like Crawford, whose career high in home runs is 19? No, its really not. Its what the market has dictated, especially following the Werth deal. Crawford is a better player, so he had to get at least the same length, and more money. If the Red Sox wanted the player, they had to pony up the money, and they needed to make the move now, before the Yankees got more involved than they already were. As I laid out, your future options at the position just aren't there. So if the Red Sox had to go out and overpay to fill a need, they could afford to do so, and that is exactly why I love the deal so much, because they can make this signing, and still remain within a budget very similar to the 168 million dollars they paid out in 2010, which is precisely why all the Yankee fans out there that are making comments of "Congratulations on becoming exactly what you always said you hated" are way off base. Let me break it down for you:
Coming off the books in 2010:
Mike Lowell- $12.5 million
Adrian Beltre- $8 million
Victor Martinez- $7.7 million
Julio Lugo- $9 million
Just that alone accounts for a 37.2 million dollar clearing of salary. Now of course, these are not the only salaries changing. John Lackey's contract is front loaded, and will make 3 million less than last year. Several players have escalating salaries, like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis, adding a couple million here and there, plus arbitration eligible raises. I'll save you all of the gory details and tell you this: the final tally when all is said and done, including Beckett and Varitek's new contracts, Ortiz' option, the numerous smaller contracts that are no longer on the team, and the 6 million owed to Adrian Gonzalez this year, turns out to be nearly 30 million dollars coming off the books this season. That's more than enough to sign Crawford for 20 million, and even have 10 million left over to fill out the 40-man roster and sign a couple of relief pitchers! Even if they manage to jump up a couple extra million filling out the roster, its highly unlikely that they will break the $175 million threshold. Whereas if the Yankees make a huge signing with Cliff Lee, and they are expected to, that combined with the return of Andy Petitte and filling out their roster will give them a minimum of 220 million dollar budget, a good 45-50 million dollars more than that of the Red Sox. This is where the two teams differ. The Red Sox run their books as smart businessmen, knowing when they have money to spend and how to stay within budget. The Yankees run their business as a group with bottomless pockets, handing out ridiculous and borderline irresponsible contracts at any cost to win the World Series right now, future be damned. Which is why the Red Sox will never spend on the level of the Yankees, and why the Yankees budget will always continue to rise every year that they are in existence. They will never be on equal footing.
Now of course, Adrian Gonzalez is not going to be a 6 million dollar player for long. He is probably going to get a massive contract, lets say about $22 million/year after the season opens (as the Red Sox are smart, they will not announce the contract until after opening day, and will not have to factor in the contract extension to this year's luxury tax.) So this number would put the Red Sox way over their 2010 number of $168 million right? No, of course not. The Red Sox have even more money coming off the books next season. Here's a look at the contracts coming off the books at the end of 2011:
J.D. Drew- $14 million
David Ortiz- $12.5 million
Jonathan Papelbon- $10+ million
Mike Cameron- $7.75 million
Marco Scutaro- $4 million
That's $48 million, a truly staggering number. Factoring in the 16 million dollar raise that Gonzalez is likely to get, you are still left with 32 million dollars to play with. And here's the key: three of the players that you are losing here, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon and Marco Scutaro, are being replaced by players from the Red Sox own minor league system, at very cheap dollars. Probably a total of $4-6 million combined, in Daniel Bard, Ryan Kalish and Jose Iglesias. So you are looking at 26-28 million additional dollars to fill out a roster, find a right handed DH and a new 4th outfielder, along with whats likely to be another bullpen arm or two. Sound reasonable? I thought so too.
So really, the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez merely come at the perfect time for this organization. Epstein was killed when he called 2010 a "bridge year," but that is precisely what it was. A bridge to 2011 and beyond. To a time where the Red Sox have enough money coming off their books where they can spend 42 million dollars combined per year on their new acquisitions, and still somehow manage to lighten the payroll in the process. Or at worst, keep it the same.
The Red Sox know how valuable Crawford will be to their team in the next seven years. Manager Terry Francona has already called him a "game-changer." He is a true superstar, and they just don't come around that often. The Red Sox managed to get two of them this off season, which obviously leads to the Yankee comparisons, and so be it. But its funny to think that come 2012, the Red Sox will have a lineup with a very home grown feel:
C Jarrod Slatalamacchia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Jose Iglesias
3B Kevin Youkilis
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Ryan Kalish
LF Carl Crawford
DH ?
How many of these players did the Red Sox "buy" in their quest for the World Series? One: Carl Crawford. The rest either came up through the Red Sox system, or were acquired in a trade for prospects of their system. Not to mention the likes of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, or Daniel Bard, the three most important pitchers on this team. No, this lineup hasn't been bought, its been developed and planned, with the utmost detail and craftsmanship of a brilliant general manager. Carl Crawford just happened to be the perfect piece to acquire at the perfect time, to add to a team of players that are a testament to the development of the Red Sox farm system. Sometimes, you have to strike while you still can, the Yankees do this every year, sometime multiple times a year. The Red Sox waited patiently, and now it was their time. Carl Crawford was their answer. And it is a very merry Christmas indeed, for Red Sox nation. April can't get here soon enough.
Thursday Night Pick
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
The Titans are a mess and Indy should bounce back strong in this game.
The Titans are a mess and Indy should bounce back strong in this game.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Week 13 Picks
Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of Yahoo.com
DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago
San Francisco (+9.5) over GREEN BAY
Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Denver
Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA
Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO
Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
St. Louis (-3) over ARIZONA
Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY
BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI
LOCK OF THE WEEK
New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 92-78-6
Lock Picks: 18-16-2
Lines courtesy of Yahoo.com
DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago
San Francisco (+9.5) over GREEN BAY
Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Denver
Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA
Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO
Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
St. Louis (-3) over ARIZONA
Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY
BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI
LOCK OF THE WEEK
New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 92-78-6
Lock Picks: 18-16-2
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Thursday Night Pick
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Houston
Houston's defense is just terrible enough to allow me to lay the points here.
Houston's defense is just terrible enough to allow me to lay the points here.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Week 12 Picks
No commentary today, long week of family and friends. Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving! But its not too late to get your picks in, so here we go!
Minnesota (-2) over WASHINGTON
CLEVELAND (-8.5) over Carolina
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
Green Bay (+1.5) over ATLANTA
San Diego (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND (-3) over Miami
Kansas City (-2.5) over SEATTLE
St. Louis (+3.5) over DENVER
San Francisco (PK) over ARIZONA
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
HOUSTON (-5.5) over TENNESSEE
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Jacksonville (+7.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh (-6) over BUFFALO
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 84-70
Lock Picks: 16-15-2
Minnesota (-2) over WASHINGTON
CLEVELAND (-8.5) over Carolina
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
Green Bay (+1.5) over ATLANTA
San Diego (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND (-3) over Miami
Kansas City (-2.5) over SEATTLE
St. Louis (+3.5) over DENVER
San Francisco (PK) over ARIZONA
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
HOUSTON (-5.5) over TENNESSEE
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Jacksonville (+7.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh (-6) over BUFFALO
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 84-70
Lock Picks: 16-15-2
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Week 12 Power Rankings
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We will get to my picks for the three games later on, but first, I owe you fine folks some power rankings! Sit back, relax, watch football, eat turkey and read through the list. Enjoy!
The Elite
1. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons have been the NFC's best team all year, and now, it appears as if they are the best team in all of football. Winners of four straight, they rise to the top for the first time all season. Will they be able to stay there?
2.Baltimore Ravens- You know by now what the Ravens have to offer. They have some of the best skill players in all of football, their defense is weak by their standards, but still pretty good, and they know how to win games. Still like them to come out of the AFC.
3. New York Jets- Just when you think you have the Jets on the ropes, they come firing right back and win. That is a very dangerous sign for the rest of the AFC. A talented team that has a swagger where they think even if they get down they are never out? Scary.
4. Green Bay Packers- I picked them (again) to win the Super Bowl, and despite the losses of Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley for the season, they are finally starting to look like an elite team. I thought the injuries would be a bit too much to overcome, but as long as one man doesn't go down, they are going to be right in the hunt for the crown. Aaron Rodgers.
5. New England Patriots- I have been a doubter of this team for a while, considering how young and unspectacular their defense is, but they just keep beating whoever you put in front of them. I have no choice but to include them amongst the NFL's Elite, after beating the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers- I still have to put the Steelers in here because of their defense, which is the best in the game. They have a great QB that can beat anyone and has proven it, but they have also shown some vulnerability against the league's better teams. Six is a great spot for the Steelers.
The Contenders
7. Philadelphia Eagles- After what they did to the Redskins, they sure looked like an elite team... but then they played a sub-par game against the Giants and barely escaped with the win, so for now, they simply lead the pack of contenders, but that's not all that bad!
8. Indianapolis Colts- They were able to give the Pats a late scare, but couldn't pull the same feat from 2009 in 2010. Can never go against Peyton Manning winning the AFC South, and I should know this by now. Silly to think this team won't be causing problems for someone in the playoffs.
9. San Diego Chargers- This is an Elite team just waiting to break out. The Chargers haven't lost a December game since 2005, when Drew Brees was still their quarterback. They are about to hit their stride, and dominate the second half of the season, led by Phillip Rivers and his MVP quest.
10. New Orleans Saints- Still hyper-talented, and starting to get healthy. The scary thing is, they have a better defense than last year. I wouldn't want to play Drew Brees in a playoff game, that's for sure. Especially if you have to do it at the Superdome.
11. Chicago Bears- Winners of three straight, Can't keep them out of the contending ranks. I don't see how they don't end up fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC, and I think they get one (with New Orleans grabbing the other).
12. Kansas City Chiefs- Once again, I think that once we get to the Chiefs, its about that time when we get out of the contending ranks.
The Mediocre
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- They just won't... go... AWAY. Josh Freeman is legit. I apologize to the Freeman family for ever doubting him. They win games. I don't know how they do it but they do. I think they just miss the playoffs this season, but with Freeman at the helm, I think they could come back with a vengeance next season.
14. New York Giants- Ha! These past two weeks have exposed the Giants for the frauds they are! Watch them miss the playoffs. Watch!
15. Oakland Raiders- The very definition of mediocre. They will play well one week, pull off a win, then get handled easily by a clearly better team the next.
16. Tennessee Titans- Sigh.... I was so ready for my team to make a run. To take over the top rank of the NFL. TO finally start capitalizing on all of the potential.... and then Vince Young gets hurt, pissed off, and throws his pads into the stands. Then Jeff Fisher gets pissed off and says he is no longer the quarterback. Then VY is put on IR. Have you ever seen a team with so much potential fall apart this fast? I haven't. The problem is, this team is best when Vince is healthy and playing. Sure, he has attitude problems, but he is a damn good football player and his record proves it. He knows how to win. I have all the respect for Fisher as a coach, but if I had to choose between coach and quarterback, I side with Vince. I know the kind of results this team has with him in the lineup, and those when he isn't. I shutter to think about the Rusty Smith era. This sucks.
17. Cleveland Browns- And the Browns keep climbing. This team is legitimately talented enough to compete with anyone. I praised the Lions last time, this week, that same type of praise goes to Cleveland. They play a ton of tight games and pull off the occasional win. They are headed quickly in the right direction.
18. Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys are showing signs of the team that everyone thought they would be going into the season. Sure it was against the Giants and Lions, two mediocre teams, but still, the Jason Garrett era has been a success so far. The Cowboys should have taken my advice and fired Wade Phillips the minute after they lost to the pitiful Redskins in week one.
19. Detroit Lions- I mentioned the Lions in each of the last two paragraphs, and look, here they are! They are easily the best 2-8 team I have ever seen. All this means is that they will get another chance to nail another high draft pick (like they appear to have done with Suh, Stafford and Best). They play every team close (bar the Cowboy game) and they should have at least 4-5 wins. They would be winning the NFC West, if they were lucky enough to be put in that crap division.
20. Houston Texans- I think we all know the story with this team by now. Uber-talented, no winner's edge. They might need to just blow the whole thing up and start from scratch, again.
21. Miami Dolphins- I'm pretty sure Miami is the most boring team in the NFL. They don't really do anything particularly well. They are on their third mediocre QB of the season. They are .500. Can anyone actually care one way or another about Miami? I know I can't.
22. Seattle Seahawks- WE finally get our first NFC West team... at spot number 22! One of these teams needs to make the playoffs, and I really hope it prompts the NFL to think about a seeded playoff, because there is no way the Seahawks deserve the playoff spot they currently sit in.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars- Remember when I said I couldn't figure out how this team was 4-4? Well now they are 6-4... If the Miami Dolphins are the league's most boring team, the Jags are definitely the most puzzling.
24. Washington Redskins- Followed closely by the Washington Redskins. Who knows what to make of this mediocre team?
25. St. Louis Rams- They can'[t win on the road, they are bad in their own horrible division, they are 4-6, but for some reason I think people think they might be good. I think its a result of them being so awful last year and then finding some early improvement this season, but they rest at the very bottom of the mediocre for me, an improvement, but nothing to be proud of.
The Garbage
26. Denver Broncos- They got blown out by a pretty damn good team in San Diego, so I won't penalize them too much for that. Still, they aren't very good whatsoever.
27. Minnesota Vikings- They finally fired Brad Childress, which is something that should have happened a long time ago. Now, maybe if they sit their quarterback, they might actually have something here! Wait, its already week 12? Oh....
28. San Francisco 49ers- Sigh... something tells me this team won't be going 9-7. Is Mike Singletary the third coach that Green Bay gets fired? We'll find out next week! Wouldn't that be something?
29. Buffalo Bills- Whoa Ho! The Buffalo Bills are on a winning streak! Who needs Andrew Luck when you've got Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging the ball! And I'm only half kidding...
30. Cincinnati Bengals- Couldn't feel any more vindicated in saying that this team was going to take a huge step backward this season.
31. Arizona Cardinals- Make it five losses in a row for this absolutely atrocious football team. I can't even tell you who their starting quarterback is right now, because I don't hate myself enough to care about Arizona Cardinals football this year.
32. Carolina Panthers- I do, however, know who is the quarterback for the Panthers. His name is Brian St. Pierre. And that is why they are in last place.
And now, on to my Turkey Day picks!
DETROIT (+7) over New England
I'm pretty sure that I'm just going to pick Detroit every week. they are 8-2 against the spread, and the only time I didn't pick them, they blew out the Rams. I'm rolling with them, and the points.
New Orleans (-4) over DALLAS
I think this Dallas mini run ends here on Thanksgiving, when Drew Bress cuts up their mediocre defense.
NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Cincinnati
The Jets are awesome, and the Bengals suck. I don't care how big the line is, this should be a blowout.
The Elite
1. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons have been the NFC's best team all year, and now, it appears as if they are the best team in all of football. Winners of four straight, they rise to the top for the first time all season. Will they be able to stay there?
2.Baltimore Ravens- You know by now what the Ravens have to offer. They have some of the best skill players in all of football, their defense is weak by their standards, but still pretty good, and they know how to win games. Still like them to come out of the AFC.
3. New York Jets- Just when you think you have the Jets on the ropes, they come firing right back and win. That is a very dangerous sign for the rest of the AFC. A talented team that has a swagger where they think even if they get down they are never out? Scary.
4. Green Bay Packers- I picked them (again) to win the Super Bowl, and despite the losses of Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley for the season, they are finally starting to look like an elite team. I thought the injuries would be a bit too much to overcome, but as long as one man doesn't go down, they are going to be right in the hunt for the crown. Aaron Rodgers.
5. New England Patriots- I have been a doubter of this team for a while, considering how young and unspectacular their defense is, but they just keep beating whoever you put in front of them. I have no choice but to include them amongst the NFL's Elite, after beating the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers- I still have to put the Steelers in here because of their defense, which is the best in the game. They have a great QB that can beat anyone and has proven it, but they have also shown some vulnerability against the league's better teams. Six is a great spot for the Steelers.
The Contenders
7. Philadelphia Eagles- After what they did to the Redskins, they sure looked like an elite team... but then they played a sub-par game against the Giants and barely escaped with the win, so for now, they simply lead the pack of contenders, but that's not all that bad!
8. Indianapolis Colts- They were able to give the Pats a late scare, but couldn't pull the same feat from 2009 in 2010. Can never go against Peyton Manning winning the AFC South, and I should know this by now. Silly to think this team won't be causing problems for someone in the playoffs.
9. San Diego Chargers- This is an Elite team just waiting to break out. The Chargers haven't lost a December game since 2005, when Drew Brees was still their quarterback. They are about to hit their stride, and dominate the second half of the season, led by Phillip Rivers and his MVP quest.
10. New Orleans Saints- Still hyper-talented, and starting to get healthy. The scary thing is, they have a better defense than last year. I wouldn't want to play Drew Brees in a playoff game, that's for sure. Especially if you have to do it at the Superdome.
11. Chicago Bears- Winners of three straight, Can't keep them out of the contending ranks. I don't see how they don't end up fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC, and I think they get one (with New Orleans grabbing the other).
12. Kansas City Chiefs- Once again, I think that once we get to the Chiefs, its about that time when we get out of the contending ranks.
The Mediocre
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- They just won't... go... AWAY. Josh Freeman is legit. I apologize to the Freeman family for ever doubting him. They win games. I don't know how they do it but they do. I think they just miss the playoffs this season, but with Freeman at the helm, I think they could come back with a vengeance next season.
14. New York Giants- Ha! These past two weeks have exposed the Giants for the frauds they are! Watch them miss the playoffs. Watch!
15. Oakland Raiders- The very definition of mediocre. They will play well one week, pull off a win, then get handled easily by a clearly better team the next.
16. Tennessee Titans- Sigh.... I was so ready for my team to make a run. To take over the top rank of the NFL. TO finally start capitalizing on all of the potential.... and then Vince Young gets hurt, pissed off, and throws his pads into the stands. Then Jeff Fisher gets pissed off and says he is no longer the quarterback. Then VY is put on IR. Have you ever seen a team with so much potential fall apart this fast? I haven't. The problem is, this team is best when Vince is healthy and playing. Sure, he has attitude problems, but he is a damn good football player and his record proves it. He knows how to win. I have all the respect for Fisher as a coach, but if I had to choose between coach and quarterback, I side with Vince. I know the kind of results this team has with him in the lineup, and those when he isn't. I shutter to think about the Rusty Smith era. This sucks.
17. Cleveland Browns- And the Browns keep climbing. This team is legitimately talented enough to compete with anyone. I praised the Lions last time, this week, that same type of praise goes to Cleveland. They play a ton of tight games and pull off the occasional win. They are headed quickly in the right direction.
18. Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys are showing signs of the team that everyone thought they would be going into the season. Sure it was against the Giants and Lions, two mediocre teams, but still, the Jason Garrett era has been a success so far. The Cowboys should have taken my advice and fired Wade Phillips the minute after they lost to the pitiful Redskins in week one.
19. Detroit Lions- I mentioned the Lions in each of the last two paragraphs, and look, here they are! They are easily the best 2-8 team I have ever seen. All this means is that they will get another chance to nail another high draft pick (like they appear to have done with Suh, Stafford and Best). They play every team close (bar the Cowboy game) and they should have at least 4-5 wins. They would be winning the NFC West, if they were lucky enough to be put in that crap division.
20. Houston Texans- I think we all know the story with this team by now. Uber-talented, no winner's edge. They might need to just blow the whole thing up and start from scratch, again.
21. Miami Dolphins- I'm pretty sure Miami is the most boring team in the NFL. They don't really do anything particularly well. They are on their third mediocre QB of the season. They are .500. Can anyone actually care one way or another about Miami? I know I can't.
22. Seattle Seahawks- WE finally get our first NFC West team... at spot number 22! One of these teams needs to make the playoffs, and I really hope it prompts the NFL to think about a seeded playoff, because there is no way the Seahawks deserve the playoff spot they currently sit in.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars- Remember when I said I couldn't figure out how this team was 4-4? Well now they are 6-4... If the Miami Dolphins are the league's most boring team, the Jags are definitely the most puzzling.
24. Washington Redskins- Followed closely by the Washington Redskins. Who knows what to make of this mediocre team?
25. St. Louis Rams- They can'[t win on the road, they are bad in their own horrible division, they are 4-6, but for some reason I think people think they might be good. I think its a result of them being so awful last year and then finding some early improvement this season, but they rest at the very bottom of the mediocre for me, an improvement, but nothing to be proud of.
The Garbage
26. Denver Broncos- They got blown out by a pretty damn good team in San Diego, so I won't penalize them too much for that. Still, they aren't very good whatsoever.
27. Minnesota Vikings- They finally fired Brad Childress, which is something that should have happened a long time ago. Now, maybe if they sit their quarterback, they might actually have something here! Wait, its already week 12? Oh....
28. San Francisco 49ers- Sigh... something tells me this team won't be going 9-7. Is Mike Singletary the third coach that Green Bay gets fired? We'll find out next week! Wouldn't that be something?
29. Buffalo Bills- Whoa Ho! The Buffalo Bills are on a winning streak! Who needs Andrew Luck when you've got Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging the ball! And I'm only half kidding...
30. Cincinnati Bengals- Couldn't feel any more vindicated in saying that this team was going to take a huge step backward this season.
31. Arizona Cardinals- Make it five losses in a row for this absolutely atrocious football team. I can't even tell you who their starting quarterback is right now, because I don't hate myself enough to care about Arizona Cardinals football this year.
32. Carolina Panthers- I do, however, know who is the quarterback for the Panthers. His name is Brian St. Pierre. And that is why they are in last place.
And now, on to my Turkey Day picks!
DETROIT (+7) over New England
I'm pretty sure that I'm just going to pick Detroit every week. they are 8-2 against the spread, and the only time I didn't pick them, they blew out the Rams. I'm rolling with them, and the points.
New Orleans (-4) over DALLAS
I think this Dallas mini run ends here on Thanksgiving, when Drew Bress cuts up their mediocre defense.
NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Cincinnati
The Jets are awesome, and the Bengals suck. I don't care how big the line is, this should be a blowout.
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