Two weeks to go, need to rebound from last week!. Here we go!
Kansas City (+13.5) over CINCINNATI
Too many points for Cincinnati.
Oakland (+3.5) over Cleveland
Two bad teams, take the points.
GREEN BAY (-14) over Seattle
If Tampa can cover this spread in Seattle, Green Bay better be able to do it at home. They are still playing for something.
MIAMI (-3) over Houston
One team's playoff hopes end today. I say its Houston.
Jacksonville (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville always seems to keep it close, and New England is not the Patriots of old.
Tampa Bay (+14) over NEW ORLEANS
Will Brees play the whole game? I'm not sure, and 14 is a lot of points to give Tampa who is actually playing well lately.
Carolina (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Carolina impressed me last week. Minnesota is better than New York, so I'll stick with the Panthers under Matt Moore.
Baltimore (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
The hopes to repeat end today for the Steelers.
ARIZONA (-14) over ST. LOUIS
Worst team up against one of the best.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over New York Jets
Tough to say if the Colts will play their starters, but I think they do at least long enough to hold off the Jets and end their playoff hopes once and for all.
Denver won't be able to hang with a very legit Eagles team
Dallas (-6.5) over WASHINGTON
After last week, Washington showed me they have given up on the season entirely.
CHICAGO (+7) over Minnesota
Brett Favre in cold weather is why I like Chicago to cover in this one.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Denver
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Buffalo (+9) over ATLANTA
Atlanta is giving too many points
Lock of the Week
Detroit (+12.5) over San Francisco
Detroit played Arizona tough, I say they do the same, and may even pull off the upset in this one.
Last Week: 5-10-1
Overall: 117-103-3
Lock Picks: 24-21
Can't wait for it to start!
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
And then there was one
One lone unbeaten team. The Indianapolis Colts. The team that is notorious for resting its starters is bringing up all kinds of questions of whether they will do that this year, being undefeated. Should they? Absolutely not. Not only do they have a chance to go undefeated, but the resting starter argument doesn't hold water. You want a hot team going into the playoffs. They clinched a bye, so that will be plenty of rest. Going in undefeated, with a guy like Peyton Manning, is a huge edge, and they should go for it. That said, I do not think they are the best team in football, and do not think they make the Super Bowl.
The Elite
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. San Diego Chargers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Minnesota Vikings
So you know how I feel about the Colts, but the Chargers are the team making the leap. They beat a good Bengals team that was playing inspired by Chris Henry. They match up so well with the Colts. They are deadly. Gun to my head, the Chargers knock off the Colts in the AFC title game. However, I think it is absolutely wide open in both leagues, which is why the Contenders group is really inching closer and closer to matching the Elite. The difference between Minnesota and Green Bay (number 6 on my list) is not nearly as big as it used to be.
The Eagles made the jump this week into the Elite, and it is where they belong. They are an incredibly explosive offense, thanks in large part to superstar in making Desean Jackson. They have the defense to hold off other teams just enough to outscore them, and I wouldn't be surprised for one moment to see them make a run at the Super Bowl. I said preseason and I'm sticking to it, they are one of the most complete teams in football.
The Vikings got slaughtered by a bad Panthers team, and the sad part is, I was never really surprised. Brett Favre is just being Brett Favre, and that is never a good thing. He's making it all about him, forcing the ball up there in bad decisions, and proving that he runs the show, as he argues with the guy that is supposed to be in charge of the team. This does not bode well for them going forward, and I love it. If Favre torpedoes this team in the playoffs, it will be the biggest self gratifying moment I've had in a long time.
The Contenders
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. New England Patriots
11. Tennessee Titans
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Denver Broncos
Green Bay lost a heartbreaker to the clutchness of Ben Roethlisberger, but that doesn't mean I didn't like they way they played. They should role over the Seahawks next week in a bounce back game, and finish strong with a win over Arizona to remain hot going into the playoffs. At least thats what I think will happen.
Dallas jumps three spots after stunning the Saints on Saturday night. I really didn't think they had a shot in this one. I was wrong. I was wrong a lot this weekend. I just didn't think the December Cowboys were going to go into the Superdome and beat this Saints team. They showed a lot of toughness that I hadn't previously seen before, and I no longer think they are a lock for another first round playoff exit.
The Patriots and Cardinals are just about even to me. Both have the offenses to stand up with anyone, but they also both have tremendous matchup problems with a lot of the teams ahead of them. I wouldn't bet on them, because its hard to trust teams with so little defense, but on any given day (when Randy Moss tries anyway) they can just blow a team away. If they met, I'd take the home. They are just very close.
The Titans don't have the tiebreakers to make the playoffs, which breaks my heart, because they would be so dangerous if they got in. They get those vaunted Chargers on Christmas, and if they win, it will be even more depressing knowing that this team can beat anyone in football. And I really think they have a serious chance.
The Broncos just don't make any sense. They can show up one week and totally bomb the next. Look for a very fast exit from the playoffs from them. This is the team the Patriots and Bengals should want to face, because the other team, the Baltimore Ravens, are looking a lot more like a serious problem for those teams.
The Mediocre
14. New York Giants
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Miami Dolphins
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Jets
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Atlanta Falcons
21. Carolina Panthers
22. San Fransisco 49ers
I'll start with the New York Giants, who appear to be well on their way to 9-7, like I predicted when they were 5-0. This team blew the Redskins right out of the Mediocre and back into the awful. Washington just didn't show up for this game, so I don't know what that says about the Giants. I just know that they are the only team in the Mediocre with a legit shot at the playoffs, but they won't get there as the Cowboys and Packers stand in their way.
Most of these other teams are members of the AFC's "7-7" club. The Dolphins, Steelers, Texans, Jets and Jaguars are all 7-7. They join the one legitimate 7-7 team, the Titans, in the group clinging in desperation to playoff hopes. The problem is, there are only 2 teams that can get Wild Card spots, and I think the Ravens will lock one up. So it really comes down to tiebreakers for the teams that win their final 2 games and go 9-7. I know my Titans don't have the divisional record. Neither do the Steelers, Texans, Jets or Jaguars. The other team will come down to the Broncos or the Dolphins. Miami has the Texans and Steelers left on their schedule, and if they win those two games, they have a shot at catching the Broncos. I don't think they win those two games, so the Broncos hold on, unless they lose to the Chiefs at home, a team they very recently blew out. The Ravens and the Broncos are your AFC Wild Card teams, and only one can make it out of the first round. As I said earlier, the Patriots and Bengals better hope they get Denver and not Baltimore.
The Awful
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Chicago Bears
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Wshington Redskins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Detroit Lions
32. St. Louis Rams
Sigh. Only one remaining team with one win. Can the Rams pull it off? I don't know how the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks, but that is why you always take the points in a matchup between two awful teams. Sigh (again, for not taking my own advice).
And for the Friday night game, I have to take my team, the TITANS (-3)over Chargers. Go Titans!
Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!
The Elite
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. San Diego Chargers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Minnesota Vikings
So you know how I feel about the Colts, but the Chargers are the team making the leap. They beat a good Bengals team that was playing inspired by Chris Henry. They match up so well with the Colts. They are deadly. Gun to my head, the Chargers knock off the Colts in the AFC title game. However, I think it is absolutely wide open in both leagues, which is why the Contenders group is really inching closer and closer to matching the Elite. The difference between Minnesota and Green Bay (number 6 on my list) is not nearly as big as it used to be.
The Eagles made the jump this week into the Elite, and it is where they belong. They are an incredibly explosive offense, thanks in large part to superstar in making Desean Jackson. They have the defense to hold off other teams just enough to outscore them, and I wouldn't be surprised for one moment to see them make a run at the Super Bowl. I said preseason and I'm sticking to it, they are one of the most complete teams in football.
The Vikings got slaughtered by a bad Panthers team, and the sad part is, I was never really surprised. Brett Favre is just being Brett Favre, and that is never a good thing. He's making it all about him, forcing the ball up there in bad decisions, and proving that he runs the show, as he argues with the guy that is supposed to be in charge of the team. This does not bode well for them going forward, and I love it. If Favre torpedoes this team in the playoffs, it will be the biggest self gratifying moment I've had in a long time.
The Contenders
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. New England Patriots
11. Tennessee Titans
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Denver Broncos
Green Bay lost a heartbreaker to the clutchness of Ben Roethlisberger, but that doesn't mean I didn't like they way they played. They should role over the Seahawks next week in a bounce back game, and finish strong with a win over Arizona to remain hot going into the playoffs. At least thats what I think will happen.
Dallas jumps three spots after stunning the Saints on Saturday night. I really didn't think they had a shot in this one. I was wrong. I was wrong a lot this weekend. I just didn't think the December Cowboys were going to go into the Superdome and beat this Saints team. They showed a lot of toughness that I hadn't previously seen before, and I no longer think they are a lock for another first round playoff exit.
The Patriots and Cardinals are just about even to me. Both have the offenses to stand up with anyone, but they also both have tremendous matchup problems with a lot of the teams ahead of them. I wouldn't bet on them, because its hard to trust teams with so little defense, but on any given day (when Randy Moss tries anyway) they can just blow a team away. If they met, I'd take the home. They are just very close.
The Titans don't have the tiebreakers to make the playoffs, which breaks my heart, because they would be so dangerous if they got in. They get those vaunted Chargers on Christmas, and if they win, it will be even more depressing knowing that this team can beat anyone in football. And I really think they have a serious chance.
The Broncos just don't make any sense. They can show up one week and totally bomb the next. Look for a very fast exit from the playoffs from them. This is the team the Patriots and Bengals should want to face, because the other team, the Baltimore Ravens, are looking a lot more like a serious problem for those teams.
The Mediocre
14. New York Giants
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Miami Dolphins
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Jets
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Atlanta Falcons
21. Carolina Panthers
22. San Fransisco 49ers
I'll start with the New York Giants, who appear to be well on their way to 9-7, like I predicted when they were 5-0. This team blew the Redskins right out of the Mediocre and back into the awful. Washington just didn't show up for this game, so I don't know what that says about the Giants. I just know that they are the only team in the Mediocre with a legit shot at the playoffs, but they won't get there as the Cowboys and Packers stand in their way.
Most of these other teams are members of the AFC's "7-7" club. The Dolphins, Steelers, Texans, Jets and Jaguars are all 7-7. They join the one legitimate 7-7 team, the Titans, in the group clinging in desperation to playoff hopes. The problem is, there are only 2 teams that can get Wild Card spots, and I think the Ravens will lock one up. So it really comes down to tiebreakers for the teams that win their final 2 games and go 9-7. I know my Titans don't have the divisional record. Neither do the Steelers, Texans, Jets or Jaguars. The other team will come down to the Broncos or the Dolphins. Miami has the Texans and Steelers left on their schedule, and if they win those two games, they have a shot at catching the Broncos. I don't think they win those two games, so the Broncos hold on, unless they lose to the Chiefs at home, a team they very recently blew out. The Ravens and the Broncos are your AFC Wild Card teams, and only one can make it out of the first round. As I said earlier, the Patriots and Bengals better hope they get Denver and not Baltimore.
The Awful
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Chicago Bears
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Wshington Redskins
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Detroit Lions
32. St. Louis Rams
Sigh. Only one remaining team with one win. Can the Rams pull it off? I don't know how the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks, but that is why you always take the points in a matchup between two awful teams. Sigh (again, for not taking my own advice).
And for the Friday night game, I have to take my team, the TITANS (-3)over Chargers. Go Titans!
Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!
Friday, December 18, 2009
My apologies for my absense!
Between visiting my girlfriend and massive internet connection problems, I haven't been able to post in over a week. For thos interested, I went 9-7 in picks last week and 3-0 with locks (Philly, San Diego and Green Bay). I have no idea how long I will have internet, so I'm going to post a quick power rankings and picks, no analysis just lists. I'm sorry guys and gals for the absense and briefness. Hopefully I get this straightened out for next week. And for my friends who drove 6 hours to Buffalo for the Pats/Bills game without the tickets, you are truly, truly stupid. Love you guys.
The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Minnesota Vikings
The Contenders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. New England Patriots
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Denver Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Tennesee Titans
The Mediocre
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
16. New York Jets
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Giants
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Washington Redskins
22. San Fransisco 49ers
23. Carolina Panthers
The Awful
24. Chicago Bears
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Buffalo Bills
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Detroit Lions
32. St. Louis Rams
And for this week's picks:
I got Indianapolis (-3) right
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Dallas
BUFFALO (+7) over New England
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Miami
KANSAS CITY (-1.5) over Cleveland
Atlanta (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
San Fransisco (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Chicago
DENVER (-14) over Oakland
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over Cincinnati
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA (+9) over Minnesota
WASHINGTON (+3) over New York Giants
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Houston (-13) over ST. LOUIS
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Arizona (-12.5) over DETROIT
Lock Of The Week
Green Bay (+1.5) over PITTSBURGH
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 112-93-2
Lock Picks: 23-19
Rest in peace Chris Henry. And more importantly, Rest in peace to my cousin Justin who also passed away this week. They were both 26, and both are nothing short of a tragedy.
The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Minnesota Vikings
The Contenders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. New England Patriots
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Denver Broncos
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Tennesee Titans
The Mediocre
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
16. New York Jets
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Giants
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Washington Redskins
22. San Fransisco 49ers
23. Carolina Panthers
The Awful
24. Chicago Bears
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Buffalo Bills
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. Detroit Lions
32. St. Louis Rams
And for this week's picks:
I got Indianapolis (-3) right
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Dallas
BUFFALO (+7) over New England
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Miami
KANSAS CITY (-1.5) over Cleveland
Atlanta (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
San Fransisco (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Chicago
DENVER (-14) over Oakland
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over Cincinnati
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA (+9) over Minnesota
WASHINGTON (+3) over New York Giants
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Houston (-13) over ST. LOUIS
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Arizona (-12.5) over DETROIT
Lock Of The Week
Green Bay (+1.5) over PITTSBURGH
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 112-93-2
Lock Picks: 23-19
Rest in peace Chris Henry. And more importantly, Rest in peace to my cousin Justin who also passed away this week. They were both 26, and both are nothing short of a tragedy.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
The State of the NFL: Week 14
Week 13 was a pretty boring week in the NFL. There were only about four or five games that mattered, and I'll cover them all, but the rest of the games were just kinda blah. Here comes the list!
The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Minnesota Vikings
Out of these teams, the Colts looked the best by far this week. They played a red hot Titans team and pulled out a tough win. The Titans were able to hang with them, and in my opinion, easily could have won this game. The Colts simply would not allow it to happen. That is why they are one of the NFL's Elite teams.
The Saints remain on top, but it took a miracle to keep them there. They were outplayed by the Redskins for the entire game, and it took a few questionable calls and a missed 23 yard field goal to get the win. I said last week that the Saints would go undefeated, and it looked as if I would be wrong one week after that prediction. Now, I am ten times more certain that they will finish the season without a loss. They look like a team of destiny. They have almost no one to challenge them (we'll get to those Cowboys later) and they pull out wins like this. No one is beating them, and I have to say it looks like no one is beating the Colts either at this point, but I'm more reluctant for them because we know they will rest their players, while I think the Saints go for it to the end.
The Vikings got shellacked by the Cardinals. Thoroughly dominated in every way. I can't tell you how bad they looked. The great Adrian Peterson was held to 19 yards. Brett Favre looked like the Brett Favre of old. Is this a sign of a rapid decline in December like we saw from Favre last season? It might be, but its too soon to tell. The Cardinals just played out of their minds on Sunday night.
The Contenders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. New England Patriots
11. Denver Broncos
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
There are starting to be some really dangerous teams in this tier. The difference between the Contenders and the Elite is the smallest it has been all season. San Diego and Cincinnati each had easy games this week and handled them. The Packers managed to knock off the Ravens on Monday night in an absolutely horrendous game marred by penalties and bad turnovers. However, I really like my pre-season pick to win the Superbowl entering the playoffs. They are peaking at exactly the right time. Watch out for them.
The Cardinals and Eagles both won convincingly. The Cardinals crushed the Vikings, as I said before, and Philly took a beat up Falcons team and absolutely dominated them. Philly gets Brian Westbrook and Desean Jackson back this week and they are another team I really liked going into the season that I am fully back on their bandwagon. Look for them to beat down the New York Giants this weekend and cement their place at the top of the NFC East.
The Patriots, Cowboys and Titans all lost their games and so they take a tumble. New England is being obliterated by poor coaching. I have no idea what Bellichick is thinking these days, but its not good. They need to turn it around and win their last 4 games if they want to be taken seriously. They are in crisis mode right now. I think they can right the ship, but they need a change, and fast.
The Cowboys lost and start their December slide. Romo had a terrific game, so it's really not his fault. It might be in their heads, I have no idea, I can't explain it, but it's certainly real. I'd be scared to trust this Cowboys team the rest of the way, and they are looking squarely at a first round exit from the playoffs, again.
The Titans take a big step backward in their playoff hopes with their loss to Indy. The best they can do is 9-7, so they would need to win out and get some help. However, that doesn't mean they don't belong in this tier. They lost to a fantastic football team and could definitely finish 9-7. It's really depressing that they lost those 6 Kerry Collins games, especially when some of them were so close. Its looking like this is a playoff team that won't make the playoffs, whereas the Jaguars, who are newcomers to the tier, are in the driver's seat to get in, even though they are a worse football team.
The Mediocre
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
17. New York Jets
18. New York Giants
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Houston Texans
21. Washington Redskins
22. Carolina Panthers
23. San Fransisco 49ers
24. Oakland Raiders
I changed the name of the tier because there is no word that describes these teams better. The big news comes from the two additions at the top of the tier. The Ravens and Steelers are no longer contenders. Joe Flacco has been completely shaken. The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, especially with the injuries it has suffered to key players Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. They are not going anywhere, and with the outside chance they get into the playoffs, I would bet they get blown out.
Same goes for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but for one reason and one reason only: Troy Polamalu. His injury has destroyed this defense. Their offense is even better than it was last year when it one the Super Bowl, but the defense is a shadow of itself. Losing this guy has the same type of impact on the Steelers' defense as losing Peyton Manning would to the Colts' offense. He is that important. He will never win an MVP because they never give them to defensive players, but he should definitely be more considered.
We do have one new addition from a team rising up from the Awful. The mediocre would love to welcome the Oakland Raiders, who definitely play the part of a middle of the road team under Bruce Gradkowski. Can we give JaMarcus Russell the Least Valuable Player award yet, or do we have to wait til the end of the season?
The Awful
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Chicago Bears
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Detroit Lions
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Cleveland Browns
The Bears, although they won, fall into the Awful, because they were playing the Rams and they looked bad against them. The freaking Rams. A team that had playoff hopes coming into the season is relegated to being amongst the Lions and the Browns this year. So much for the Jay Cutler era.
That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed. As always, feel free to leave comments or e-mail me with questions. Until next time.
The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Minnesota Vikings
Out of these teams, the Colts looked the best by far this week. They played a red hot Titans team and pulled out a tough win. The Titans were able to hang with them, and in my opinion, easily could have won this game. The Colts simply would not allow it to happen. That is why they are one of the NFL's Elite teams.
The Saints remain on top, but it took a miracle to keep them there. They were outplayed by the Redskins for the entire game, and it took a few questionable calls and a missed 23 yard field goal to get the win. I said last week that the Saints would go undefeated, and it looked as if I would be wrong one week after that prediction. Now, I am ten times more certain that they will finish the season without a loss. They look like a team of destiny. They have almost no one to challenge them (we'll get to those Cowboys later) and they pull out wins like this. No one is beating them, and I have to say it looks like no one is beating the Colts either at this point, but I'm more reluctant for them because we know they will rest their players, while I think the Saints go for it to the end.
The Vikings got shellacked by the Cardinals. Thoroughly dominated in every way. I can't tell you how bad they looked. The great Adrian Peterson was held to 19 yards. Brett Favre looked like the Brett Favre of old. Is this a sign of a rapid decline in December like we saw from Favre last season? It might be, but its too soon to tell. The Cardinals just played out of their minds on Sunday night.
The Contenders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. New England Patriots
11. Denver Broncos
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
There are starting to be some really dangerous teams in this tier. The difference between the Contenders and the Elite is the smallest it has been all season. San Diego and Cincinnati each had easy games this week and handled them. The Packers managed to knock off the Ravens on Monday night in an absolutely horrendous game marred by penalties and bad turnovers. However, I really like my pre-season pick to win the Superbowl entering the playoffs. They are peaking at exactly the right time. Watch out for them.
The Cardinals and Eagles both won convincingly. The Cardinals crushed the Vikings, as I said before, and Philly took a beat up Falcons team and absolutely dominated them. Philly gets Brian Westbrook and Desean Jackson back this week and they are another team I really liked going into the season that I am fully back on their bandwagon. Look for them to beat down the New York Giants this weekend and cement their place at the top of the NFC East.
The Patriots, Cowboys and Titans all lost their games and so they take a tumble. New England is being obliterated by poor coaching. I have no idea what Bellichick is thinking these days, but its not good. They need to turn it around and win their last 4 games if they want to be taken seriously. They are in crisis mode right now. I think they can right the ship, but they need a change, and fast.
The Cowboys lost and start their December slide. Romo had a terrific game, so it's really not his fault. It might be in their heads, I have no idea, I can't explain it, but it's certainly real. I'd be scared to trust this Cowboys team the rest of the way, and they are looking squarely at a first round exit from the playoffs, again.
The Titans take a big step backward in their playoff hopes with their loss to Indy. The best they can do is 9-7, so they would need to win out and get some help. However, that doesn't mean they don't belong in this tier. They lost to a fantastic football team and could definitely finish 9-7. It's really depressing that they lost those 6 Kerry Collins games, especially when some of them were so close. Its looking like this is a playoff team that won't make the playoffs, whereas the Jaguars, who are newcomers to the tier, are in the driver's seat to get in, even though they are a worse football team.
The Mediocre
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
17. New York Jets
18. New York Giants
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Houston Texans
21. Washington Redskins
22. Carolina Panthers
23. San Fransisco 49ers
24. Oakland Raiders
I changed the name of the tier because there is no word that describes these teams better. The big news comes from the two additions at the top of the tier. The Ravens and Steelers are no longer contenders. Joe Flacco has been completely shaken. The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, especially with the injuries it has suffered to key players Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed. They are not going anywhere, and with the outside chance they get into the playoffs, I would bet they get blown out.
Same goes for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but for one reason and one reason only: Troy Polamalu. His injury has destroyed this defense. Their offense is even better than it was last year when it one the Super Bowl, but the defense is a shadow of itself. Losing this guy has the same type of impact on the Steelers' defense as losing Peyton Manning would to the Colts' offense. He is that important. He will never win an MVP because they never give them to defensive players, but he should definitely be more considered.
We do have one new addition from a team rising up from the Awful. The mediocre would love to welcome the Oakland Raiders, who definitely play the part of a middle of the road team under Bruce Gradkowski. Can we give JaMarcus Russell the Least Valuable Player award yet, or do we have to wait til the end of the season?
The Awful
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Chicago Bears
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Detroit Lions
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Kansas City Chiefs
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Cleveland Browns
The Bears, although they won, fall into the Awful, because they were playing the Rams and they looked bad against them. The freaking Rams. A team that had playoff hopes coming into the season is relegated to being amongst the Lions and the Browns this year. So much for the Jay Cutler era.
That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed. As always, feel free to leave comments or e-mail me with questions. Until next time.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Week 13 NFL Picks
Its crunch time in the NFL. Only 5 weeks remain. The term "must-win" is thrown around all year, but now its actually starting to mean something. Now is the time every team wants to start peaking. Its also a crucial time for your NFL pick'em pools. If you are still close to the top, you are running out of time to catch the front runners. You need to start nailing picks, going 10-6 or better. I have had a pretty solid season so far against the spread, but I know I can improve. I hope to start with week 13, so here we go:
Philadelphia (-5.5) over ATLANTA
Overall, I think the Eagles are a better team than the Falcons. Both teams are missing crucial offensive weapons, but the Falcons are missing their leader and resort to starting Chris Redman. They will also be without one of the league's best rushers in Michael Turner, who reinjured his ankle last weekend. The Atlanta secondary is downright awful, and I think that will be the difference in this one, as Donovan McNabb and company have a big game, and win by at least a touchdown.
St. Louis (+9.5) over CHICAGO
I never thought I'd see the day. The day the St. Louis Rams were printed in bold in this column. However, no one in the league should be getting this many points against the hapless Chicago Bears. St. Louis is still playing hard. If Stephen Jackson is available and effective in this game, I think the Rams could even win outright. Chicago is really that bad. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games. It should be a high scoring game, as both can';t stop anyone, but the Rams should at least keep this a one score game, so give me those points.
CINCINNATI (-13.5) over Detroit
Detroit can not stop anyone. Not through the air or on the ground. They can score some points, but so can the Bengals. I know Cinci has shown that they sometimes come up short against bad teams, but I can't see it happening again here. With Benson back, they can control this one and play however they want. I expect an easy blowout win.
Tennessee (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS
I mentioned in my recap column how I thought the Titans would end the Colts perfect season and I'm not going to back out of that now. Tennessee knows they are playoff contenders and are playing with confidence. They also know they have no margin for error if they want that dream to come true. The Colts, on the other hand, have played a few games in a row that they should have lost, but relied on Peyton Manning pulling out a great comeback. That can work against Houston, not against this Titans team. You can pretty much pencil in Chris Johnson for one huge play a game, and Vince gets better every week. This is the week the Colts taste defeat, and I don't think they have a problem with that because no one is really chasing them for home field. The Titans may not be better, they are simply hungrier.
Denver (-5) over KANSAS CITY
Just too much going for Denver to take the underdog in this one. They have had a 10 day layoff to rest up to take on a defense that can't stop anybody. They looked very impressive against the Giants, a team better than the Chiefs. I know the Chiefs are at home, a place where Denver has historically struggled, but in no way can I see them winning this game. The only thing they have had going for them is Jamal Charles, who should have another nice game, but I can't see that toppling the Broncos here.
Oakland (+14.5) over PITTSBURGH
Just too many points to give to the Steelers, who haven't played great football of late. I don't see them throwing much and think this should be a low scoring affair, maybe a 17-6 type game, but that would get Oakland the cover, especially if Big Ben needs to sit another game out.
New Orleans (-9.5) over WASHINGTON
I learned not to pick against the league's best team last week. I certainly won't make that mistake again.
Tampa Bay (+5) over CAROLINA
Carolina marches out rookie quarterback Matt Moore for his first game ever this week, which should mean a healthy dose of the run game. It should also mean a close game against the Bucs, who look rejuvenated and much better under fellow rookie QB Josh Freeman. The Bucs can certainly win this game with a big day from Cadillac Williams, like he had the last time these teams met, so I will take the underdog plus the points.
JACKSONVILLE (+1.5) over Houston
Houston can't win when they need to. Houston has no Steve Slaton. Jacksonville needs this game just as much as Houston does. Jacksonville is at home. Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew. I like the Jags to end Houston's season (so much for that prediction, I didn't think they would be this bad at closing out games).
SEATTLE (+1.5) over San Fransisco
Seattle still always plays better at home. San Fransisco hasn't had any sort of success on the road this season. Its a battle of teams that I don't think can call themselves good. I'll take the home field advantage in this one, as San Fransisco lets down.
Minnesota (-3) over ARIZONA
I'm not terribly confident about this one, but how can you pick against the Vikings at this point? Plus, Arizona may or may not have Kurt Warner and they have struggled at home, so Minnesota it is.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore
Green Bay is peaking at the right time and Baltimore isn't as good as they were a year ago. I don't think they are a playoff team. Green Bay certainly is. I love what Aaron Rodgers will do in this one, and definitely think he'll lead his team to victory number eight on the season. This game will be fun to watch, and will definitely show us exactly which direction these teams are headed.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-14) over CLEVELAND
A team knocking on the door of being elite against the worst team in the NFL. I'm not concerned about anything Cleveland could throw at them. San Diego wins easily just like they did last week against the Chiefs.
First Runner Up Lock of the week
New England (-4.5) over MIAMI
If Buffalo can beat Miami, so can the Patriots. This line should be higher.
Lock Of The Week
Dallas (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
This is an easy pick for me. Dallas is just simply a much better football team and Vegas continues to overrate the Giants, even as they prove again and again that they can't beat anyone that has any kind of talent at all. Cowboys avenge that crazy luck filled win the Giants got earlier in the year, easily.
Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall: 96-77-2
Lock Picks: 20-16
I love how I am exactly as good at hitting lock picks as I am at hitting everything else, hitting each at 55.5%. You probably shouldn't give them any more weight than any other game if you follow my picks each week!
Philadelphia (-5.5) over ATLANTA
Overall, I think the Eagles are a better team than the Falcons. Both teams are missing crucial offensive weapons, but the Falcons are missing their leader and resort to starting Chris Redman. They will also be without one of the league's best rushers in Michael Turner, who reinjured his ankle last weekend. The Atlanta secondary is downright awful, and I think that will be the difference in this one, as Donovan McNabb and company have a big game, and win by at least a touchdown.
St. Louis (+9.5) over CHICAGO
I never thought I'd see the day. The day the St. Louis Rams were printed in bold in this column. However, no one in the league should be getting this many points against the hapless Chicago Bears. St. Louis is still playing hard. If Stephen Jackson is available and effective in this game, I think the Rams could even win outright. Chicago is really that bad. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games. It should be a high scoring game, as both can';t stop anyone, but the Rams should at least keep this a one score game, so give me those points.
CINCINNATI (-13.5) over Detroit
Detroit can not stop anyone. Not through the air or on the ground. They can score some points, but so can the Bengals. I know Cinci has shown that they sometimes come up short against bad teams, but I can't see it happening again here. With Benson back, they can control this one and play however they want. I expect an easy blowout win.
Tennessee (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS
I mentioned in my recap column how I thought the Titans would end the Colts perfect season and I'm not going to back out of that now. Tennessee knows they are playoff contenders and are playing with confidence. They also know they have no margin for error if they want that dream to come true. The Colts, on the other hand, have played a few games in a row that they should have lost, but relied on Peyton Manning pulling out a great comeback. That can work against Houston, not against this Titans team. You can pretty much pencil in Chris Johnson for one huge play a game, and Vince gets better every week. This is the week the Colts taste defeat, and I don't think they have a problem with that because no one is really chasing them for home field. The Titans may not be better, they are simply hungrier.
Denver (-5) over KANSAS CITY
Just too much going for Denver to take the underdog in this one. They have had a 10 day layoff to rest up to take on a defense that can't stop anybody. They looked very impressive against the Giants, a team better than the Chiefs. I know the Chiefs are at home, a place where Denver has historically struggled, but in no way can I see them winning this game. The only thing they have had going for them is Jamal Charles, who should have another nice game, but I can't see that toppling the Broncos here.
Oakland (+14.5) over PITTSBURGH
Just too many points to give to the Steelers, who haven't played great football of late. I don't see them throwing much and think this should be a low scoring affair, maybe a 17-6 type game, but that would get Oakland the cover, especially if Big Ben needs to sit another game out.
New Orleans (-9.5) over WASHINGTON
I learned not to pick against the league's best team last week. I certainly won't make that mistake again.
Tampa Bay (+5) over CAROLINA
Carolina marches out rookie quarterback Matt Moore for his first game ever this week, which should mean a healthy dose of the run game. It should also mean a close game against the Bucs, who look rejuvenated and much better under fellow rookie QB Josh Freeman. The Bucs can certainly win this game with a big day from Cadillac Williams, like he had the last time these teams met, so I will take the underdog plus the points.
JACKSONVILLE (+1.5) over Houston
Houston can't win when they need to. Houston has no Steve Slaton. Jacksonville needs this game just as much as Houston does. Jacksonville is at home. Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew. I like the Jags to end Houston's season (so much for that prediction, I didn't think they would be this bad at closing out games).
SEATTLE (+1.5) over San Fransisco
Seattle still always plays better at home. San Fransisco hasn't had any sort of success on the road this season. Its a battle of teams that I don't think can call themselves good. I'll take the home field advantage in this one, as San Fransisco lets down.
Minnesota (-3) over ARIZONA
I'm not terribly confident about this one, but how can you pick against the Vikings at this point? Plus, Arizona may or may not have Kurt Warner and they have struggled at home, so Minnesota it is.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore
Green Bay is peaking at the right time and Baltimore isn't as good as they were a year ago. I don't think they are a playoff team. Green Bay certainly is. I love what Aaron Rodgers will do in this one, and definitely think he'll lead his team to victory number eight on the season. This game will be fun to watch, and will definitely show us exactly which direction these teams are headed.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-14) over CLEVELAND
A team knocking on the door of being elite against the worst team in the NFL. I'm not concerned about anything Cleveland could throw at them. San Diego wins easily just like they did last week against the Chiefs.
First Runner Up Lock of the week
New England (-4.5) over MIAMI
If Buffalo can beat Miami, so can the Patriots. This line should be higher.
Lock Of The Week
Dallas (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
This is an easy pick for me. Dallas is just simply a much better football team and Vegas continues to overrate the Giants, even as they prove again and again that they can't beat anyone that has any kind of talent at all. Cowboys avenge that crazy luck filled win the Giants got earlier in the year, easily.
Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall: 96-77-2
Lock Picks: 20-16
I love how I am exactly as good at hitting lock picks as I am at hitting everything else, hitting each at 55.5%. You probably shouldn't give them any more weight than any other game if you follow my picks each week!
Thursday, December 3, 2009
NFL Recap: Week 13
The Elite
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Minnesota Vikings
And then there were three. With the Saints thoroughly dismantling the Patriots on Monday night, they knock the Patriots out of the league's elite. They exposed every weakness the Patriots have. Their defense could do nothing in that environment, much as they have done all year on the road. Tom Brady looked flustered and made several poor decisions. Bill Belichick isn't using proper football sense anymore; he may have lost his mind. The Patriots fall out of the top tier.
On the other side, the Saints firmly cemented their place at the top. They are going undefeated if they want to. I can't see anyone beating this team at full strength. Their toughest test is Dallas, but Dallas is notorious for struggling in December, plus the game is in New Orleans. The Saints shouldn't have trouble with the Cowboys. I can't see a single team knocking them off in the regular season.
The Colts looked shaky in the first half of their game with the Texans, but they were never rattled. They came back strong, as Peyton Manning continues his MVP campaign and won the game rather easily. They can not do this against the Titans if they expect to remain undefeated, but more on that later.
The Vikings move into third place by beating up the bad news Bears. Brett Favre continues to disprove the doubters (myself included) by not throwing his trademark interceptions. Can the over-40 QB continue this for nine more weeks? Time will tell. Tough test with Arizona coming up this week.
The Contenders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. New England Patriots
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Arizona Cardinals
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. Denver Broncos
The Chargers move into the four slot with another outstanding performance. They are one of the most dangerous offenses in football now that LT is actually giving them something. They are very close to joining the big three with how they are playing. They can hang with anyone in football, even if this was against the lowly Chiefs.
Two games took place between teams in this tier, the first of which being the Titans vs. the Cardinals. With Kurt Warner out, the Cardinals turned to Matt Leinart to lead them to victory against Vince Young and the surging Titans. In a game that mirrored the 2006 Rose Bowl, Vince Young once again led his team down the field for the game winning score. This was probably the most excited I have been while watching a football game in my lifetime. I was jumping, screaming, high-fiving. It was awesome. This is the type of thing that can take an already inspired team to another level. There is no denying the skill and leadership it takes to drive a team 99 yards down the field to win a game. Vince is a leader. Chris Johnson is a superstar and Kenny Britt doesn't get enough love amongst the good rookie wide-outs. He should after that game winning catch. This is the one team (other than the Saints, of course) that no one should want to see on their schedule. They are on a mission for 10-6. They are well coached, their defense is playing like an entirely different team than they were 6 weeks ago. They are going to take down the Colts this weekend. They need this game so much more, and the Colts almost act as if a loss would be good for them with the way they rest their starters, and who knows it might be. They get that loss this week. I am loving the second coming of the Vince Young era!
The other game between Contenders this week was between the Ravens and the Steelers. Baltimore pulled it out but they weren't all that impressive, which is why each remains toward the bottom of the tier, and the Titans leap them. Granted, Pittsburgh was without its most valuable player, but back-up QB Dennis Dixon actually played a very good game against the Ravens, until the interception in overtime of course. It was a close, fun game to watch, but I can't see these teams going very far in the playoffs, if either team even makes them.
I give the Broncos credit for looking impressive against the Giants and I bump them back into the second tier. Do I think they have a great team? No, I really don't. But they are 7-4 and they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, so it looks very likely that they find their way into the playoffs to be eliminated in the first round, which means they have to be here, despite their shortcomings.
The Mid-Pack
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. San Francisco 49ers
17. New York Jets
18. Houston Texans
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Miami Dolphins
21. New York Giants
22. Carolina Panthers
23. Washington Redskins
24. Chicago Bears
These teams disgust me. So much wasted talent amongst this group. They are all so mediocre it's nearly impossible to rank them. All they have to do is win their game to rise to the top. The Jets move from the bottom of the tier all the way up to third, because just about everyone else lost. The Dolphins lost a game they absolutely should have won against the Bills, do they take a big tumble. I almost dropped the Bears out of the tier altogether, because they looked dreadful and have for weeks now. The Redskins are the new addition to the Mid-Pack, after playing well against good teams for a few weeks now. They don't always win, but they have played tough, which seems to happen a lot with these mediocre squads. They are no longer members of the Awful. Congratulations Skins fans. The 49ers beat fellow Mid-Packer Jacksonville very soundly, so they jump up to number 16. I'm sure they are thrilled.
Did I mention these teams disgust me?
The Awful
25. Buffalo Bills
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Detroit Lions
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Cleveland Browns
In the battle for who gets the number one pick, the Browns lead. Three teams still have just one win, and wouldn't you know they are three of the four teams I said would finish with one win. Will the Buccaneers, Rams or Browns win again and prove me wrong, like the Raiders already did? Time, my friends, will tell. Again, if your team falls here, I sympathize, my team was here a mere five weeks ago. Good luck in the draft and better luck next year.
As for the Thursday night game, the Jets are favored by three points, and I like them to beat the Bills in Toronto. The Jets will run the ball all night on the Bills, who have proven they can't stop it. Revis locks down TO and the Bills prove why they are still a tier behind the Jets.
Jets (-3) over BILLS
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Minnesota Vikings
And then there were three. With the Saints thoroughly dismantling the Patriots on Monday night, they knock the Patriots out of the league's elite. They exposed every weakness the Patriots have. Their defense could do nothing in that environment, much as they have done all year on the road. Tom Brady looked flustered and made several poor decisions. Bill Belichick isn't using proper football sense anymore; he may have lost his mind. The Patriots fall out of the top tier.
On the other side, the Saints firmly cemented their place at the top. They are going undefeated if they want to. I can't see anyone beating this team at full strength. Their toughest test is Dallas, but Dallas is notorious for struggling in December, plus the game is in New Orleans. The Saints shouldn't have trouble with the Cowboys. I can't see a single team knocking them off in the regular season.
The Colts looked shaky in the first half of their game with the Texans, but they were never rattled. They came back strong, as Peyton Manning continues his MVP campaign and won the game rather easily. They can not do this against the Titans if they expect to remain undefeated, but more on that later.
The Vikings move into third place by beating up the bad news Bears. Brett Favre continues to disprove the doubters (myself included) by not throwing his trademark interceptions. Can the over-40 QB continue this for nine more weeks? Time will tell. Tough test with Arizona coming up this week.
The Contenders
4. San Diego Chargers
5. New England Patriots
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Arizona Cardinals
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. Denver Broncos
The Chargers move into the four slot with another outstanding performance. They are one of the most dangerous offenses in football now that LT is actually giving them something. They are very close to joining the big three with how they are playing. They can hang with anyone in football, even if this was against the lowly Chiefs.
Two games took place between teams in this tier, the first of which being the Titans vs. the Cardinals. With Kurt Warner out, the Cardinals turned to Matt Leinart to lead them to victory against Vince Young and the surging Titans. In a game that mirrored the 2006 Rose Bowl, Vince Young once again led his team down the field for the game winning score. This was probably the most excited I have been while watching a football game in my lifetime. I was jumping, screaming, high-fiving. It was awesome. This is the type of thing that can take an already inspired team to another level. There is no denying the skill and leadership it takes to drive a team 99 yards down the field to win a game. Vince is a leader. Chris Johnson is a superstar and Kenny Britt doesn't get enough love amongst the good rookie wide-outs. He should after that game winning catch. This is the one team (other than the Saints, of course) that no one should want to see on their schedule. They are on a mission for 10-6. They are well coached, their defense is playing like an entirely different team than they were 6 weeks ago. They are going to take down the Colts this weekend. They need this game so much more, and the Colts almost act as if a loss would be good for them with the way they rest their starters, and who knows it might be. They get that loss this week. I am loving the second coming of the Vince Young era!
The other game between Contenders this week was between the Ravens and the Steelers. Baltimore pulled it out but they weren't all that impressive, which is why each remains toward the bottom of the tier, and the Titans leap them. Granted, Pittsburgh was without its most valuable player, but back-up QB Dennis Dixon actually played a very good game against the Ravens, until the interception in overtime of course. It was a close, fun game to watch, but I can't see these teams going very far in the playoffs, if either team even makes them.
I give the Broncos credit for looking impressive against the Giants and I bump them back into the second tier. Do I think they have a great team? No, I really don't. But they are 7-4 and they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, so it looks very likely that they find their way into the playoffs to be eliminated in the first round, which means they have to be here, despite their shortcomings.
The Mid-Pack
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. San Francisco 49ers
17. New York Jets
18. Houston Texans
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Miami Dolphins
21. New York Giants
22. Carolina Panthers
23. Washington Redskins
24. Chicago Bears
These teams disgust me. So much wasted talent amongst this group. They are all so mediocre it's nearly impossible to rank them. All they have to do is win their game to rise to the top. The Jets move from the bottom of the tier all the way up to third, because just about everyone else lost. The Dolphins lost a game they absolutely should have won against the Bills, do they take a big tumble. I almost dropped the Bears out of the tier altogether, because they looked dreadful and have for weeks now. The Redskins are the new addition to the Mid-Pack, after playing well against good teams for a few weeks now. They don't always win, but they have played tough, which seems to happen a lot with these mediocre squads. They are no longer members of the Awful. Congratulations Skins fans. The 49ers beat fellow Mid-Packer Jacksonville very soundly, so they jump up to number 16. I'm sure they are thrilled.
Did I mention these teams disgust me?
The Awful
25. Buffalo Bills
26. Seattle Seahawks
27. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Detroit Lions
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Cleveland Browns
In the battle for who gets the number one pick, the Browns lead. Three teams still have just one win, and wouldn't you know they are three of the four teams I said would finish with one win. Will the Buccaneers, Rams or Browns win again and prove me wrong, like the Raiders already did? Time, my friends, will tell. Again, if your team falls here, I sympathize, my team was here a mere five weeks ago. Good luck in the draft and better luck next year.
As for the Thursday night game, the Jets are favored by three points, and I like them to beat the Bills in Toronto. The Jets will run the ball all night on the Bills, who have proven they can't stop it. Revis locks down TO and the Bills prove why they are still a tier behind the Jets.
Jets (-3) over BILLS
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)