Week 13 NFL Picks

Its crunch time in the NFL. Only 5 weeks remain. The term "must-win" is thrown around all year, but now its actually starting to mean something. Now is the time every team wants to start peaking. Its also a crucial time for your NFL pick'em pools. If you are still close to the top, you are running out of time to catch the front runners. You need to start nailing picks, going 10-6 or better. I have had a pretty solid season so far against the spread, but I know I can improve. I hope to start with week 13, so here we go:

Philadelphia (-5.5) over ATLANTA
Overall, I think the Eagles are a better team than the Falcons. Both teams are missing crucial offensive weapons, but the Falcons are missing their leader and resort to starting Chris Redman. They will also be without one of the league's best rushers in Michael Turner, who reinjured his ankle last weekend. The Atlanta secondary is downright awful, and I think that will be the difference in this one, as Donovan McNabb and company have a big game, and win by at least a touchdown.

St. Louis (+9.5) over CHICAGO
I never thought I'd see the day. The day the St. Louis Rams were printed in bold in this column. However, no one in the league should be getting this many points against the hapless Chicago Bears. St. Louis is still playing hard. If Stephen Jackson is available and effective in this game, I think the Rams could even win outright. Chicago is really that bad. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games. It should be a high scoring game, as both can';t stop anyone, but the Rams should at least keep this a one score game, so give me those points.

CINCINNATI (-13.5) over Detroit
Detroit can not stop anyone. Not through the air or on the ground. They can score some points, but so can the Bengals. I know Cinci has shown that they sometimes come up short against bad teams, but I can't see it happening again here. With Benson back, they can control this one and play however they want. I expect an easy blowout win.

Tennessee (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS
I mentioned in my recap column how I thought the Titans would end the Colts perfect season and I'm not going to back out of that now. Tennessee knows they are playoff contenders and are playing with confidence. They also know they have no margin for error if they want that dream to come true. The Colts, on the other hand, have played a few games in a row that they should have lost, but relied on Peyton Manning pulling out a great comeback. That can work against Houston, not against this Titans team. You can pretty much pencil in Chris Johnson for one huge play a game, and Vince gets better every week. This is the week the Colts taste defeat, and I don't think they have a problem with that because no one is really chasing them for home field. The Titans may not be better, they are simply hungrier.

Denver (-5) over KANSAS CITY
Just too much going for Denver to take the underdog in this one. They have had a 10 day layoff to rest up to take on a defense that can't stop anybody. They looked very impressive against the Giants, a team better than the Chiefs. I know the Chiefs are at home, a place where Denver has historically struggled, but in no way can I see them winning this game. The only thing they have had going for them is Jamal Charles, who should have another nice game, but I can't see that toppling the Broncos here.

Oakland (+14.5) over PITTSBURGH
Just too many points to give to the Steelers, who haven't played great football of late. I don't see them throwing much and think this should be a low scoring affair, maybe a 17-6 type game, but that would get Oakland the cover, especially if Big Ben needs to sit another game out.

New Orleans (-9.5) over WASHINGTON
I learned not to pick against the league's best team last week. I certainly won't make that mistake again.

Tampa Bay (+5) over CAROLINA
Carolina marches out rookie quarterback Matt Moore for his first game ever this week, which should mean a healthy dose of the run game. It should also mean a close game against the Bucs, who look rejuvenated and much better under fellow rookie QB Josh Freeman. The Bucs can certainly win this game with a big day from Cadillac Williams, like he had the last time these teams met, so I will take the underdog plus the points.

JACKSONVILLE (+1.5) over Houston
Houston can't win when they need to. Houston has no Steve Slaton. Jacksonville needs this game just as much as Houston does. Jacksonville is at home. Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew. I like the Jags to end Houston's season (so much for that prediction, I didn't think they would be this bad at closing out games).

SEATTLE (+1.5) over San Fransisco
Seattle still always plays better at home. San Fransisco hasn't had any sort of success on the road this season. Its a battle of teams that I don't think can call themselves good. I'll take the home field advantage in this one, as San Fransisco lets down.

Minnesota (-3) over ARIZONA
I'm not terribly confident about this one, but how can you pick against the Vikings at this point? Plus, Arizona may or may not have Kurt Warner and they have struggled at home, so Minnesota it is.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore
Green Bay is peaking at the right time and Baltimore isn't as good as they were a year ago. I don't think they are a playoff team. Green Bay certainly is. I love what Aaron Rodgers will do in this one, and definitely think he'll lead his team to victory number eight on the season. This game will be fun to watch, and will definitely show us exactly which direction these teams are headed.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-14) over CLEVELAND
A team knocking on the door of being elite against the worst team in the NFL. I'm not concerned about anything Cleveland could throw at them. San Diego wins easily just like they did last week against the Chiefs.

First Runner Up Lock of the week
New England (-4.5) over MIAMI
If Buffalo can beat Miami, so can the Patriots. This line should be higher.

Lock Of The Week
Dallas (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
This is an easy pick for me. Dallas is just simply a much better football team and Vegas continues to overrate the Giants, even as they prove again and again that they can't beat anyone that has any kind of talent at all. Cowboys avenge that crazy luck filled win the Giants got earlier in the year, easily.

Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall: 96-77-2
Lock Picks: 20-16

I love how I am exactly as good at hitting lock picks as I am at hitting everything else, hitting each at 55.5%. You probably shouldn't give them any more weight than any other game if you follow my picks each week!