Went 2-1 on thanksgiving, let's see how I do for the rest of week 12 shall we?
Tampa Bay (+12.5) over ATLANTA
Miami (-3.5) over BUFFALO
CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland
Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Washington
Indianapolis (-3.5) over HOUSTON
Kansas City (+13.5) over SAN DIEGO
TENNESSEE (-3) over Arizona
New England (+3) over New Orleans
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Chicago
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
BALTIMORE (pick) over Pittsburgh
Lock of the Week
Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANSISCO
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 88-71-1
Lock Picks: 18-15
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks
Green Bay (-11) over DETROIT
The Packers should crush the Lions like they did the first time around, even with Stafford and Calvin Johnson playing.
Oakland (+13.5) over DALLAS
I think this one will be a close game. Dallas has had an awful offense the past few weeks, Miles Austin shouldn't be able to do much against Asumugha and the Raiders just beat the Bengals. Will I take 13.5? Of course I will!
DENVER (+6.5) over New York Giants
I expect the Broncos to win straight up. The Giants aren't very good, and I've said it all along. they haven't been playong well. Now that said, the Broncos have been terrible lately. I just think with a healthier Kyle Orton, at home on Thanksgiving, they should be able to get back on track.
The Packers should crush the Lions like they did the first time around, even with Stafford and Calvin Johnson playing.
Oakland (+13.5) over DALLAS
I think this one will be a close game. Dallas has had an awful offense the past few weeks, Miles Austin shouldn't be able to do much against Asumugha and the Raiders just beat the Bengals. Will I take 13.5? Of course I will!
DENVER (+6.5) over New York Giants
I expect the Broncos to win straight up. The Giants aren't very good, and I've said it all along. they haven't been playong well. Now that said, the Broncos have been terrible lately. I just think with a healthier Kyle Orton, at home on Thanksgiving, they should be able to get back on track.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
NFL Power Rankings: Week 12
I'm going with a recap/power rankings hybrid this week. I'll recap why teams are moving up or down, but I won't waste your time with things that didn't matter. Here we go:
The Elite:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Minnesota Vikings
This is a huge change from last week. The top 3 remain the same, but the big news came from Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They lost to the Raiders and Chiefs, respectively. Not just lost against the spread, but lost the game out-right! I can't honestly say they are among the Elite teams anymore. You just can't lose to teams like that. The loss of Palamalu is just absolutely terrible for Pittsburgh. They are a completely different defense without him. Cincinnati was without Cedric Benson but still, you can't lose to the Raiders.
The other developement is that I can no longer keep Minnesota out of this group. Brett Favre continues to defy his age and track record. He's not throwing interceptions! Its crazy. They are beating the teams they should beat. They haven't laid an egg like the Steelers and Bengals just did. They belong here, behind the big 3.
The Contenders:
5. San Diego Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Tennessee Titans
Lots of movers here, the biggest being the aforementioned Steelers. I think they might be done depending on when Palamalu comes back. Its just such a crushing blow to this team. The Chargers move up a couple slots with their blow out of Denver. They are the team closest to moving into the Elite. They are just clicking right now at the right time. They talented enough to win a Super Bowl, lets see if they can avoid letting their coach tank them. The other important developement: Those Tennessee Titans, at 4-6, are contenders. Would you want to play this team right now? I know I wouldn't! Vince Young is playing fantastic and he's having fun, which is so important and great to see. Chris Johnson is the best running back in football right now. He could go for 2000 yards this season. It was once crazy, but they could legitimately go 10-6. They are just really good and they are fired up. They have total "nobody believed in us" status, they control the ball, and Vince is playing his game that is so hard to defend when he gets out of the pocket. Watch out, they are jumping every week.
The Texans drop out of the contenders and into the mid pack with their loss. The other teams move up and down based on their performance this week, but they are all generally the same as they were and still belong here.
The Mid Pack:
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Giants
19. Denver Broncos
20. Carolina Panthers
21. San Fransisco 49ers
22. Chicago Bears
23. New York Jets
These teams pretty much lived up to their name. They were very middle of the road. Only two teams jumped 3 spots in this pack, the Giants and the Jaguars. I still don't like either of them, as they didn't look impressive and don't think either is close to being a contender, but they did actually win their games. I can't say that about anyone else in this list other than the best team in this group, Miami. Just a bunch of mediocre 4-6 to 6-4 squads. The Mid-Pack indeed.
The Awful:
24. Washington Redskins
25. Kansas City Chiefs
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Seattle Seahawks
29. St. Louis Rams
30. Detroit Lions
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Cleveland Browns
Washington almost beat Dallas, so they move up to the top of this list. Kansas City beat the Steelers, so they are right behind. That is also why Oakland moves up to 26 and they might actually be a mid-pack team with Bruce Gradkowski. Only time will tell. The rest remain in the dregs, with no hope of escaping even into the mediocre. Buffalo had a shot at beating Jacksonville, but let it slip away. Just like any awful team should.
That's it for me this week. If you have the chance to go see the Blind Side, definitely check it out. It was fantastic. Have a very happy Thanksgiving everybody!
The Elite:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Minnesota Vikings
This is a huge change from last week. The top 3 remain the same, but the big news came from Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They lost to the Raiders and Chiefs, respectively. Not just lost against the spread, but lost the game out-right! I can't honestly say they are among the Elite teams anymore. You just can't lose to teams like that. The loss of Palamalu is just absolutely terrible for Pittsburgh. They are a completely different defense without him. Cincinnati was without Cedric Benson but still, you can't lose to the Raiders.
The other developement is that I can no longer keep Minnesota out of this group. Brett Favre continues to defy his age and track record. He's not throwing interceptions! Its crazy. They are beating the teams they should beat. They haven't laid an egg like the Steelers and Bengals just did. They belong here, behind the big 3.
The Contenders:
5. San Diego Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Baltimore Ravens
13. Tennessee Titans
Lots of movers here, the biggest being the aforementioned Steelers. I think they might be done depending on when Palamalu comes back. Its just such a crushing blow to this team. The Chargers move up a couple slots with their blow out of Denver. They are the team closest to moving into the Elite. They are just clicking right now at the right time. They talented enough to win a Super Bowl, lets see if they can avoid letting their coach tank them. The other important developement: Those Tennessee Titans, at 4-6, are contenders. Would you want to play this team right now? I know I wouldn't! Vince Young is playing fantastic and he's having fun, which is so important and great to see. Chris Johnson is the best running back in football right now. He could go for 2000 yards this season. It was once crazy, but they could legitimately go 10-6. They are just really good and they are fired up. They have total "nobody believed in us" status, they control the ball, and Vince is playing his game that is so hard to defend when he gets out of the pocket. Watch out, they are jumping every week.
The Texans drop out of the contenders and into the mid pack with their loss. The other teams move up and down based on their performance this week, but they are all generally the same as they were and still belong here.
The Mid Pack:
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
17. Houston Texans
18. New York Giants
19. Denver Broncos
20. Carolina Panthers
21. San Fransisco 49ers
22. Chicago Bears
23. New York Jets
These teams pretty much lived up to their name. They were very middle of the road. Only two teams jumped 3 spots in this pack, the Giants and the Jaguars. I still don't like either of them, as they didn't look impressive and don't think either is close to being a contender, but they did actually win their games. I can't say that about anyone else in this list other than the best team in this group, Miami. Just a bunch of mediocre 4-6 to 6-4 squads. The Mid-Pack indeed.
The Awful:
24. Washington Redskins
25. Kansas City Chiefs
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Seattle Seahawks
29. St. Louis Rams
30. Detroit Lions
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Cleveland Browns
Washington almost beat Dallas, so they move up to the top of this list. Kansas City beat the Steelers, so they are right behind. That is also why Oakland moves up to 26 and they might actually be a mid-pack team with Bruce Gradkowski. Only time will tell. The rest remain in the dregs, with no hope of escaping even into the mediocre. Buffalo had a shot at beating Jacksonville, but let it slip away. Just like any awful team should.
That's it for me this week. If you have the chance to go see the Blind Side, definitely check it out. It was fantastic. Have a very happy Thanksgiving everybody!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
NFL Picks: Week 11
CAROLINA (-3) over Miami
DALLAS (-11) over Washington
DETROIT (-3.5) over Clevelenad
GREEN BAY (-6.5) over San Fransisco
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Pittsburgh
MINESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle
Atlanta (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
New Orleans (-11.5) over TAMPA BAY
Buffalo (+9) over JACKSONVILLE
BALTIMORE (+1) over Indianapolis
Cincinatti (-9.5) over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over New York Jets
Tennessee (+4.5) over HOUSTON
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-2.5) over DENVER
Lock of the Week
Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS
Last week: 8-7
Overall: 79-64-1
Lock Picks: 16-14
DALLAS (-11) over Washington
DETROIT (-3.5) over Clevelenad
GREEN BAY (-6.5) over San Fransisco
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Pittsburgh
MINESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle
Atlanta (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
New Orleans (-11.5) over TAMPA BAY
Buffalo (+9) over JACKSONVILLE
BALTIMORE (+1) over Indianapolis
Cincinatti (-9.5) over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over New York Jets
Tennessee (+4.5) over HOUSTON
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
San Diego (-2.5) over DENVER
Lock of the Week
Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS
Last week: 8-7
Overall: 79-64-1
Lock Picks: 16-14
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
NFL Power Rankings: Week 11
I've noticed that now that we have played ten weeks of football, the teams are starting to get entrenched into their own tiers. Some fall, some rise, but for the most part the tiers stay the same. So for this list, I'm going to separate them based on the tiers I think they fall into:
The Elite: These are the Super Bowl favorites. The Saints remain on top, but only just. Any of these teams could win the Super Bowl and I wouldn't at all be shocked.
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Contenders: These teams also have a shot of making a deep run in the playoffs, but they also have some fatal flaws that could prevent them from getting there.
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. San Diego Chargers
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Green Bay Packers
12. Houston Texans
13. Philadelphia Eagles
The Mid-pack: These are the teams that are mired in mediocrity. The teams we can't figure out. The teams that play awesome one week, then terrible the next. The teams that fail to live up to their full potential. They might have an outside shot at the playoffs, but will more than likely come up short. Teams that make you go "meh."
14. Atlanta Falcons
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Tennessee Titans
17. Denver Broncos
18. Carolina Panthers
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. San Francisco 49ers
21. New York Giants
22. New York Jets
23. Chicago Bears
The Awful: These are the pitiful, hopeless, wait til next year, hope we get a good draft pick, tank the season dregs of the NFL. They are all varying levels of bad, but none of them are going anywhere. Better luck next year!
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Washington Redskins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Oakland Raiders
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Detroit Lions
32. Cleveland Browns
I'm going to go with the tiers for the remainder of the season so I hope you like them!
The Elite: These are the Super Bowl favorites. The Saints remain on top, but only just. Any of these teams could win the Super Bowl and I wouldn't at all be shocked.
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Contenders: These teams also have a shot of making a deep run in the playoffs, but they also have some fatal flaws that could prevent them from getting there.
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. San Diego Chargers
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Green Bay Packers
12. Houston Texans
13. Philadelphia Eagles
The Mid-pack: These are the teams that are mired in mediocrity. The teams we can't figure out. The teams that play awesome one week, then terrible the next. The teams that fail to live up to their full potential. They might have an outside shot at the playoffs, but will more than likely come up short. Teams that make you go "meh."
14. Atlanta Falcons
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Tennessee Titans
17. Denver Broncos
18. Carolina Panthers
19. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. San Francisco 49ers
21. New York Giants
22. New York Jets
23. Chicago Bears
The Awful: These are the pitiful, hopeless, wait til next year, hope we get a good draft pick, tank the season dregs of the NFL. They are all varying levels of bad, but none of them are going anywhere. Better luck next year!
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Washington Redskins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Oakland Raiders
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Detroit Lions
32. Cleveland Browns
I'm going to go with the tiers for the remainder of the season so I hope you like them!
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
So there was this 4th and 2... you may have heard about it
Patriots/Colts: There is no other place to start. It was the game of the week, and to say it lived up to the hype is a complete understatement. A game in which the Patriots thoroughly dominated for 3 quarters, then completely lost control and gave the game over to Peyton Manning, who led a legendary comeback.
But you don't care about that.
Everyone and their mother is talking about "The Call." The call made by sure-fire Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. The call that was indefensibly, incomprehensibly, undeniably D-U-M-B.
Now I know, there have been lots of pundits out there that want to tell me that the statistics show that the Patriots had a statistically better chance at going for it and converting, than stoping the Colts final drive. But this game is not played based on statistics. If you want to follow that theory, the Patriots shouldn't employ a punter. They should go for the attempt every single time. If there is one time in the game where you should not attempt to go for it on 4th down (and I am a huge proponent of coaches going for it more often) this was it. People like to throw around the terms "playing to win" and "playing not to lose." Well guess what? The definition of win is "to not lose". That is an argument over semantics and its frankly just stupid. What Belichick did here was playing "to decide the game his way." He wanted to decide the game on one play. They make it, they win, they don't make it, they lose. That is what happens. If Belichick didn't believe his team could stop Manning from 70 yards out, he sure didn't think they could stop him from 28. So they don't make it, they lose.
I just can't see how a coach can have so little confidence in his defense. Granted Peyton Manning is lethal inside of two minutes coming from behind, but he was not having his best game. He threw two brutal interceptions earlier in the game. The Patriots had stopped him on several occasions during the game. The last drive very well could have been ended early if the Colts didn't get a very questionable pass interference call in their favor for a 30+ yard gain. Peyton Manning is not infallible. You have to give your defense the chance to Do Their Jobs.
So the decision was made, Belichick wanted to be bold. He went for it and failed. Regardless of whether the correct spot was made or not (if they hadn't used their time outs so poorly, they would have been able to challenge, improperly using time outs early in the second half continues to bite teams in the ass, pardon the language) and maybe get the call overturned. But they had no time outs and the Colts had the ball. Belichick obviously had no faith in his defense, so why wouldn't he just tell them to let them score? Just let them go. Don't play defense. Let them score on one play, put the ball back in the hands of your offense with at least 1:30 left in the game. That is the only move that makes sense with the logic he used in going for it on 4th and 2.
But they didn't do that. They let the Colts chew up the clock and score the game winning touchdown. They had no chance for a comeback. This game is all on Belichick. I know he is a terrific coach. He is a hall of famer. But on this night, his hubris got the best of him, and it cost his team a win.
And so we move on...
Bears/49ers: This was the Thursday game, a game the Bears should have won. Poor play calling and Jay Cutler thinking that the Bears changed their team colors for most of the game doomed them. It was an all around ugly game and I kinda wish I didn't even watch it. It was pitiful, these are bad teams.
Bills/Titans: Roll on Titans! The fightin' Chris Johnson's are 3-0 under Vince Young. Johnson led the team in rushing and receiving, and just dominated this game. Give credit to the defense of Tennessee though, they are looking leaps and bounds ahead of what they were 3 weeks ago. Two interception touchdowns turned this game into a blow out. The new look Titans get a real test in Houston on Monday Night Football this week. I'll be watching intently.
Fantasy Alert: If your league dropped Nate Washington, you may want to go get him. And you might want to start thinking about playing Vince Young. He's been playing really well lately. Chris Johnson takes his place as the number one back in fantasy, at least for now.
Saints/Rams: This game proved you can beat the Saints. There is no reason that they shouldn't have dominated this game. They can't get lazy, this is the NFL. I hope their coaches stress this in pratice this week or they may be in for a fall that their talent level doesn't deserve.
Fantasy Alert: Man, that Saints backfield sure is tricky. I love Pierre Thomas, but Reggie Bush stole the show in this one. I wouldn't want to be an owner of any one of them. They are too all or nothing.
Dolphins/Buccaneers: The Bucs had this one in hand, but the Dolphins are the better team, and they gutted it out at the end. Just another one of those games that bad teams always lose, even if they deserve to win.
Fantasy Alert: Ronnie Brown could be missing some serious time. You need to find a replacement now, and if you didn't already have Ricky Williams, I doubt you'll be able to add him now. Running back injuries were the theme of the week, and guys like Forsett from Seattle, Snelling from Atlanta and Scott from Cincinnati all could see some serious time in the coming weeks.
Vikings/Lions: Nothing special, better team won. Moving on.
Jaguars/Jets: Here is a game where a coach made a controversial call that worked out. He had Maurice Jones-Drew take a knee at the one yard line instead of scoring a sure touchdown, as his fantasy owners cringed. This was so the Jaguars could kill the clock and kick an easy field goal as time expires. Many have argued that you need to take the points and play defense, but why give the ball back to the other team when you don't have to? They only needed a field goal to win. Basically it comes down to this:
You have two choices to win a game, which one would you pick, all you have to do is execute and you win:
Option A) The other team has the ball and you need to stop them from having a touchdown scoring drive
or
Option B) Kick an extra point
Which of these options has a higher success rate? I'll take kicking the extra point any day. Good job Jack Del Rio, and kudos to MJD for apologizing to his fantasy owners in his press conference.
Bengals/Steelers: This Bengals team was for real last week, but now they finally get credit for it. Good for them. I am putting them in the group of elite teams, and they are doing it with defense, who'd have thought?
Fantasy Alert: Cedric Benson was one of the running backs to leave the game with injury. Bernard Scott filled in nicely, but the team went out and signed Larry Johnson anyway. That isn't going to work, but it looks like Benson should be back next week anyway. Monitor the situation.
Broncos/Redskins: Ok, I could understand the first two losses, but the Redskins? Broncos you are killing your supporters! This is the anti-Titans. Started exceptionally hot and then colled off significantly. The schedule is really easy, but they lost to the Redskins! How can you trust them anymore?
Fantasy Alert: Brandon Marshall was on pace for about 100 fantasy points after one quarter, but then he stopped producing. This was due in large part to Kyle Orton getting hurt and Chris Simms stinking up the field. with no Orton, this team is in big trouble. That's right up there with "cedric Benson is a top ten fantasy back" on my list of things I'd never thought I would say. What a season.
Falcons/Panthers: This is what happens when you lose your outstanding running back and your young quarterback isn't as good as you may have thought. You lose to the Carolina Panthers. They will be amongst the biggest movers in this weeks power rankings, as will the Falcons, in the opposite direction. Turner is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, that spells doom on their season.
Fantasy Alert: Jason Snelling filled in for Turner, and if you lost Turner, he is the guy to go get. Like now!
Chiefs/Raiders: Nothing to see here. Move along.
Fantasy Alert: Dwayne Bowe has been suspended 4 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Chris Chambers moves to number one and Lance Long to number 2. I personally think they are both rosterable in all leagues.
Cowboys/Packers: Well what do you know, my love of this Packers team payed off for me! They really needed this win and they got it. Will Dallas have another late season collapse? Could this be the start of it? Will this springboard the Packers into the season they should be having with all their talent? Its too early to tell. We will need to see in the coming weeks, but these are definitely two of the most interesting teams in football. Very tough to figure out. Stay tuned folks, stay tuned on these two.
Cardinals/Seahawks: The right team won this game, despite Seattle getting off to a good start. This game had more of a fantasy impact than a real football one, so I'll just move on to that.
Fantasy Alert: Justin Forsett could be the best add of any replacement running backs this week. He finished the day with 123 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries. On the Cardinals side, Beanie Wells was impressive, scoring 2 touchdowns on 85 yards. The backfield could be swinging in his favor. I'd give it one more week before I name him a fantasy starter yet though. Hightower is still too good around the goal line and as a receiver out of a backfield for them not to use him.
Eagles/Chargers: Poor Brian Westbrook. Even poorer Brian Westbrook fantasy owners. He suffered his second concussion of the year in this game and I'd be surprised to see him play again this year. LeSean McCoy is the perfect example of a handcuff, and I see his value the rest of the way skyrocketing. But for the Chargers, its good to see LT get in on the action. Welcome to the season, you're 9 weeks late. The Chargers do look good though and they have a pivotal game against Denver coming up. They need to win that one to keep my predicting priveledges in tact.
Fantasy Alert: Don't expect this out of LT very often. He is still done. Outstanding game from Donovan McNabb though, props to him.
Browns/Ravens: The Browns are right where they belong in this column: the bottom. No one is worse in the NFL.
Power Rankings out tomorrow. Take care everyone.
But you don't care about that.
Everyone and their mother is talking about "The Call." The call made by sure-fire Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. The call that was indefensibly, incomprehensibly, undeniably D-U-M-B.
Now I know, there have been lots of pundits out there that want to tell me that the statistics show that the Patriots had a statistically better chance at going for it and converting, than stoping the Colts final drive. But this game is not played based on statistics. If you want to follow that theory, the Patriots shouldn't employ a punter. They should go for the attempt every single time. If there is one time in the game where you should not attempt to go for it on 4th down (and I am a huge proponent of coaches going for it more often) this was it. People like to throw around the terms "playing to win" and "playing not to lose." Well guess what? The definition of win is "to not lose". That is an argument over semantics and its frankly just stupid. What Belichick did here was playing "to decide the game his way." He wanted to decide the game on one play. They make it, they win, they don't make it, they lose. That is what happens. If Belichick didn't believe his team could stop Manning from 70 yards out, he sure didn't think they could stop him from 28. So they don't make it, they lose.
I just can't see how a coach can have so little confidence in his defense. Granted Peyton Manning is lethal inside of two minutes coming from behind, but he was not having his best game. He threw two brutal interceptions earlier in the game. The Patriots had stopped him on several occasions during the game. The last drive very well could have been ended early if the Colts didn't get a very questionable pass interference call in their favor for a 30+ yard gain. Peyton Manning is not infallible. You have to give your defense the chance to Do Their Jobs.
So the decision was made, Belichick wanted to be bold. He went for it and failed. Regardless of whether the correct spot was made or not (if they hadn't used their time outs so poorly, they would have been able to challenge, improperly using time outs early in the second half continues to bite teams in the ass, pardon the language) and maybe get the call overturned. But they had no time outs and the Colts had the ball. Belichick obviously had no faith in his defense, so why wouldn't he just tell them to let them score? Just let them go. Don't play defense. Let them score on one play, put the ball back in the hands of your offense with at least 1:30 left in the game. That is the only move that makes sense with the logic he used in going for it on 4th and 2.
But they didn't do that. They let the Colts chew up the clock and score the game winning touchdown. They had no chance for a comeback. This game is all on Belichick. I know he is a terrific coach. He is a hall of famer. But on this night, his hubris got the best of him, and it cost his team a win.
And so we move on...
Bears/49ers: This was the Thursday game, a game the Bears should have won. Poor play calling and Jay Cutler thinking that the Bears changed their team colors for most of the game doomed them. It was an all around ugly game and I kinda wish I didn't even watch it. It was pitiful, these are bad teams.
Bills/Titans: Roll on Titans! The fightin' Chris Johnson's are 3-0 under Vince Young. Johnson led the team in rushing and receiving, and just dominated this game. Give credit to the defense of Tennessee though, they are looking leaps and bounds ahead of what they were 3 weeks ago. Two interception touchdowns turned this game into a blow out. The new look Titans get a real test in Houston on Monday Night Football this week. I'll be watching intently.
Fantasy Alert: If your league dropped Nate Washington, you may want to go get him. And you might want to start thinking about playing Vince Young. He's been playing really well lately. Chris Johnson takes his place as the number one back in fantasy, at least for now.
Saints/Rams: This game proved you can beat the Saints. There is no reason that they shouldn't have dominated this game. They can't get lazy, this is the NFL. I hope their coaches stress this in pratice this week or they may be in for a fall that their talent level doesn't deserve.
Fantasy Alert: Man, that Saints backfield sure is tricky. I love Pierre Thomas, but Reggie Bush stole the show in this one. I wouldn't want to be an owner of any one of them. They are too all or nothing.
Dolphins/Buccaneers: The Bucs had this one in hand, but the Dolphins are the better team, and they gutted it out at the end. Just another one of those games that bad teams always lose, even if they deserve to win.
Fantasy Alert: Ronnie Brown could be missing some serious time. You need to find a replacement now, and if you didn't already have Ricky Williams, I doubt you'll be able to add him now. Running back injuries were the theme of the week, and guys like Forsett from Seattle, Snelling from Atlanta and Scott from Cincinnati all could see some serious time in the coming weeks.
Vikings/Lions: Nothing special, better team won. Moving on.
Jaguars/Jets: Here is a game where a coach made a controversial call that worked out. He had Maurice Jones-Drew take a knee at the one yard line instead of scoring a sure touchdown, as his fantasy owners cringed. This was so the Jaguars could kill the clock and kick an easy field goal as time expires. Many have argued that you need to take the points and play defense, but why give the ball back to the other team when you don't have to? They only needed a field goal to win. Basically it comes down to this:
You have two choices to win a game, which one would you pick, all you have to do is execute and you win:
Option A) The other team has the ball and you need to stop them from having a touchdown scoring drive
or
Option B) Kick an extra point
Which of these options has a higher success rate? I'll take kicking the extra point any day. Good job Jack Del Rio, and kudos to MJD for apologizing to his fantasy owners in his press conference.
Bengals/Steelers: This Bengals team was for real last week, but now they finally get credit for it. Good for them. I am putting them in the group of elite teams, and they are doing it with defense, who'd have thought?
Fantasy Alert: Cedric Benson was one of the running backs to leave the game with injury. Bernard Scott filled in nicely, but the team went out and signed Larry Johnson anyway. That isn't going to work, but it looks like Benson should be back next week anyway. Monitor the situation.
Broncos/Redskins: Ok, I could understand the first two losses, but the Redskins? Broncos you are killing your supporters! This is the anti-Titans. Started exceptionally hot and then colled off significantly. The schedule is really easy, but they lost to the Redskins! How can you trust them anymore?
Fantasy Alert: Brandon Marshall was on pace for about 100 fantasy points after one quarter, but then he stopped producing. This was due in large part to Kyle Orton getting hurt and Chris Simms stinking up the field. with no Orton, this team is in big trouble. That's right up there with "cedric Benson is a top ten fantasy back" on my list of things I'd never thought I would say. What a season.
Falcons/Panthers: This is what happens when you lose your outstanding running back and your young quarterback isn't as good as you may have thought. You lose to the Carolina Panthers. They will be amongst the biggest movers in this weeks power rankings, as will the Falcons, in the opposite direction. Turner is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, that spells doom on their season.
Fantasy Alert: Jason Snelling filled in for Turner, and if you lost Turner, he is the guy to go get. Like now!
Chiefs/Raiders: Nothing to see here. Move along.
Fantasy Alert: Dwayne Bowe has been suspended 4 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Chris Chambers moves to number one and Lance Long to number 2. I personally think they are both rosterable in all leagues.
Cowboys/Packers: Well what do you know, my love of this Packers team payed off for me! They really needed this win and they got it. Will Dallas have another late season collapse? Could this be the start of it? Will this springboard the Packers into the season they should be having with all their talent? Its too early to tell. We will need to see in the coming weeks, but these are definitely two of the most interesting teams in football. Very tough to figure out. Stay tuned folks, stay tuned on these two.
Cardinals/Seahawks: The right team won this game, despite Seattle getting off to a good start. This game had more of a fantasy impact than a real football one, so I'll just move on to that.
Fantasy Alert: Justin Forsett could be the best add of any replacement running backs this week. He finished the day with 123 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries. On the Cardinals side, Beanie Wells was impressive, scoring 2 touchdowns on 85 yards. The backfield could be swinging in his favor. I'd give it one more week before I name him a fantasy starter yet though. Hightower is still too good around the goal line and as a receiver out of a backfield for them not to use him.
Eagles/Chargers: Poor Brian Westbrook. Even poorer Brian Westbrook fantasy owners. He suffered his second concussion of the year in this game and I'd be surprised to see him play again this year. LeSean McCoy is the perfect example of a handcuff, and I see his value the rest of the way skyrocketing. But for the Chargers, its good to see LT get in on the action. Welcome to the season, you're 9 weeks late. The Chargers do look good though and they have a pivotal game against Denver coming up. They need to win that one to keep my predicting priveledges in tact.
Fantasy Alert: Don't expect this out of LT very often. He is still done. Outstanding game from Donovan McNabb though, props to him.
Browns/Ravens: The Browns are right where they belong in this column: the bottom. No one is worse in the NFL.
Power Rankings out tomorrow. Take care everyone.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
NFL Picks: Week 10
Final week before byes are all done and we get back to 16 games a week. Here we go:
NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over Jacksonville
The Jets are coming off a bye, they're at home, they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Jacksonville isn't very good. A lot of things point to the Jets in this one.
Cincinnatti (+7) over PITTSBURGH
Like I said, I'm never underestimating Cincinnati again. they can hang with anyone, even the defending champs. They keep this one within a touchdown. I can't wait for this game, its going to be fantastic.
TENNESSEE (-8.5) over Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills give up more rushing yards than any team in football. Chris Johnson is an absolute monster. These factors combine for an ugly day for the Bills. The march to 10-6 rolls on!
MINNESOTA (-16.5) over Detroit
Minnesota should have no trouble against the hapless Lions. If Seattle can beat them by 12, Minnesota should be able to win by 24. They are at least twice as good. I can't pick the Lions any more, they just fail every time out.
MIAMI (-10) over Tampa Bay
Just because Tampa trampled Green Bay's awful O-line last week doesn't mean that they are any better than we thought. Miami will run the ball down their throat with the wildcat. They are a far different team from Green Bay, and that is why I have no problem laying 10 points on Miami in this one.
Kansas City (+2) over OAKLAND
You should know my theory by now when two bad teams are playing each other. Take the points. Even if it is only two of them, I like the Chiefs.
ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle
Arizona is vastly superior to Seattle. I got this one completely wrong before the season and I'm totally willing to admit it. Give me Arizona all day. They should blow Seattle out of the building.
SAN DIEGO (-1) over Eagles
This one could go either way (no kidding dummy, that's why its a one point line). I like San Diego at home. The Eagles didn't impress me last week, the Chargers did. I still don't know what to make of the Eagles. I want to like them, but I don't know. I like the Chargers and think they are hitting their stride.
GREEN BAY (+3) over Dallas
Oh Green Bay, I wish I knew how to quit you. It's a must win game in Lambeau in November. I know Dallas will get 8 sacks. But I still think that the Packers can pull off the upset. I am probably an idiot.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England
I originally picked the Patriots but I'm switching to the Colts. Peyton is too good in Prime time and my friend put the kiss of death by betting on the Pats. I like Indy.
Baltimore (-11) over CLEVELAND
The Ravens will win easily. Cleveland is the worst team in football right now. My boy Ray Rice is in for a field day on that horrible Browns defense. They win by three touchdowns if not more.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
New Orleans (-14) over ST. LOUIS
Why is the best team in football only two touchdown favorites over the St. Louis Rams? Are they that scared of Steven Jackson? I know the Saints can be run on, but come on. This will be an awful game that is never in doubt. I can't believe how low this line is. This is the Florida vs. Charleston Southern of the NFL.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA
Atlanta is thoroughly better than Carolina, so this is just a puzzling line. Carolina is home and Deangelo Williams has played great lately, but they still aren't winning. Atlanta should make this one easy. No idea why they aren't 7 point favorites.
Lock Of The Week
Denver (-4) over WASHINGTON
Denver has looked awful the last two weeks and exposed themselves as worse than they had been playing. So Vegas overreacted and made this line only 4. They seem to have forgotten that Washington is downright awful. Denver should have an easy time dismantling the Skins, as Vegas shows them no respect.
Last Week: 7-6
Overall: 71-57-1
Lock Picks: 16-11
NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over Jacksonville
The Jets are coming off a bye, they're at home, they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Jacksonville isn't very good. A lot of things point to the Jets in this one.
Cincinnatti (+7) over PITTSBURGH
Like I said, I'm never underestimating Cincinnati again. they can hang with anyone, even the defending champs. They keep this one within a touchdown. I can't wait for this game, its going to be fantastic.
TENNESSEE (-8.5) over Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills give up more rushing yards than any team in football. Chris Johnson is an absolute monster. These factors combine for an ugly day for the Bills. The march to 10-6 rolls on!
MINNESOTA (-16.5) over Detroit
Minnesota should have no trouble against the hapless Lions. If Seattle can beat them by 12, Minnesota should be able to win by 24. They are at least twice as good. I can't pick the Lions any more, they just fail every time out.
MIAMI (-10) over Tampa Bay
Just because Tampa trampled Green Bay's awful O-line last week doesn't mean that they are any better than we thought. Miami will run the ball down their throat with the wildcat. They are a far different team from Green Bay, and that is why I have no problem laying 10 points on Miami in this one.
Kansas City (+2) over OAKLAND
You should know my theory by now when two bad teams are playing each other. Take the points. Even if it is only two of them, I like the Chiefs.
ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle
Arizona is vastly superior to Seattle. I got this one completely wrong before the season and I'm totally willing to admit it. Give me Arizona all day. They should blow Seattle out of the building.
SAN DIEGO (-1) over Eagles
This one could go either way (no kidding dummy, that's why its a one point line). I like San Diego at home. The Eagles didn't impress me last week, the Chargers did. I still don't know what to make of the Eagles. I want to like them, but I don't know. I like the Chargers and think they are hitting their stride.
GREEN BAY (+3) over Dallas
Oh Green Bay, I wish I knew how to quit you. It's a must win game in Lambeau in November. I know Dallas will get 8 sacks. But I still think that the Packers can pull off the upset. I am probably an idiot.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England
I originally picked the Patriots but I'm switching to the Colts. Peyton is too good in Prime time and my friend put the kiss of death by betting on the Pats. I like Indy.
Baltimore (-11) over CLEVELAND
The Ravens will win easily. Cleveland is the worst team in football right now. My boy Ray Rice is in for a field day on that horrible Browns defense. They win by three touchdowns if not more.
Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
New Orleans (-14) over ST. LOUIS
Why is the best team in football only two touchdown favorites over the St. Louis Rams? Are they that scared of Steven Jackson? I know the Saints can be run on, but come on. This will be an awful game that is never in doubt. I can't believe how low this line is. This is the Florida vs. Charleston Southern of the NFL.
First Runner Up Lock of the Week
Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA
Atlanta is thoroughly better than Carolina, so this is just a puzzling line. Carolina is home and Deangelo Williams has played great lately, but they still aren't winning. Atlanta should make this one easy. No idea why they aren't 7 point favorites.
Lock Of The Week
Denver (-4) over WASHINGTON
Denver has looked awful the last two weeks and exposed themselves as worse than they had been playing. So Vegas overreacted and made this line only 4. They seem to have forgotten that Washington is downright awful. Denver should have an easy time dismantling the Skins, as Vegas shows them no respect.
Last Week: 7-6
Overall: 71-57-1
Lock Picks: 16-11
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