Monday, December 27, 2010

The Fantasy Football Levels of Losing

Anyone can say "I would have won 'if'" at the end of their given season. Sure, anyone can say that if they had done this, if they had done that, if something went my way then i would have won. But there is a different kind of stomach-punch type loss that happened this season for me. Not once, not twice, but in three separate leagues. There's losing, and then there's LOSING. This is my story.

League 1

This team started the season 0-4, so really, my team hadn't played a meaningless game since WEEK 4. Starting in Week 5, I won by .2 points, a win that I needed to make the playoffs. I survived by the skin of my teeth, my team did everything it needed to do, I spent my season agonizing over every move that would put me in position to make the playoffs and go on a run, and I finished the season with more points than anyone in the league. It came down to the last possible week for me to even make it in, as I finished off a win or go home game for both teams with a convincing victory that vaulted me to the 3 seed. The talent was there, better than everyone in the league outside MAYBE the one seed, but I did outscore him. And then, after all of that, My All-Pro, capable of scoring 40 any given week, dominating, first round pick, MVP candidate quarterback gets hurt and I am bounced, just like that. Aaron Rodgers had dragged this team kicking and screaming past every possible foe, and then, it was over. Just... like... that. I hung on ever second of every game for this team every Sunday, and I had such faith that this team was talented enough to win this league. Then that happened. It hurt. It hurt a lot more than a team that just goes 4-9 and misses the playoffs. This team had it and lost because of a stupid injury. It only makes it worse that I outscored both teams in the Semi's while I was stuck in the 5th place game, then outscored both teams in the finals while I didn't have a match. I win that one game, and this team wins. That's a stomach punch of epic proportions.


League 2

Now I wouldn't be doing this if that was even close to my only fantasy crushing loss this season. I was knocked out in the Playoffs of another league in which I had a 40 point lead, which I watched turn into a 30 point deficit, in horror, along with every Giants fan, as Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin single handedly ended my season with the greatest 8 minutes in fantasy history, costing me another money league finals trip. Nothing like a 70 point swing in 8 football minutes right?


League 3

But all of that pales in comparison to what happened to me Friday morning. Remember that Rashard Mendenhall stat correction? You know how you hear those nightmare stories of how something like that could cost someone a win? Well, bingo. Had won the matchup, was in the finals, the match had already started on Thursday night! I wake up Friday morning, sure enough, I have had 1.1 points removed (bonus 1 point at 100 yards, the yard was removed to drop his total from 100 to 99) and I saw myself in the third place game. After my championship match had already started. How's that for a "just my luck" situation.

Oh yeah, I would have won the Championship matchup.

So, please excuse me for hating fantasy football right now. I had four excellent teams this year, and three of them met their ends under extreme, gut-wrenching circumstances. I know I care too much about this, its way more than about money, its way more about how attached I get to building these teams from long before the draft until the final day of the season. I just hate losing three great teams under these circumstances. I don't even care if anyone reads this, I did it for me.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Week 16 Picks

BUFFALO (+7.5) over New England

CHICAGO (-1) over New York Jets

Tennessee (+5) over KANSAS CITY

Washington (+7) over JACKSONVILLE

San Diego (-7.5) over CINCINNATI

DENVER (+2.5) over Houston

OAKLAND (+3) over Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Seattle

Minnesota (+14.5) over PHILADELPHIA

New Orleans (+2.5) over ATLANTA

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Detroit (+3.5) over MIAMI

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
ST. LOUIS (-2.5) over San Francisco

LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore (-3.5) over CLEVELAND

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Thursday Night Pick

I like Carolina (+14) over PITTSBURGH

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Week 15 Picks

Last week sucked, a ghastly 6-10. I really need a strong week to rebound this week. Let's see if I can go 11-5 or better.

Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Kansas City

St. Louis is good at home and Matt Cassel might not play. I'll take the favorite.

Jacksonville (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Why can't the Jags win this game? They won last time these two met, they are going to have the "nobody believes in us" fire, and the Colts are still banged up. The Jags will keep this very close.

Arizona (+2.5) over CAROLINA

Arizona whooped a slightly better team last week. And how can anyone pick the Panthers? How can they be favored? I'm sorry but Jimmy Clausen is just not an NFL quarterback.

Buffalo (+5) over MIAMI

I don't think Miami is 5 points better than the Bills at this stage. That's all there is to it.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia

I think the Giants have something to prove in a revenge game here. The defense should be able to put up a strong fight and win the game.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over Detroit

Tampa Bay is a team that knows how to beat bad teams, and while this should be fairly close, I think they can win by 6 or 7.

BALTIMORE (-2) over New Orleans

This is a game where I think the home field really matters. If it were being played in New Orleans, they would be favored and I would take them. But Baltimore at home in cold weather should show that they can beat anyone in the league.

Atlanta (-6.5) over SEATTLE

As an elite team, the Falcons need to blow out teams like the Seahawks. I'm a strong believer in this team, so I have to roll with them.

New York Jets (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH

This Jets team will be desperate for a win and there is no Troy Polamalu. I think that is enough for them to at the very least keep it within a field goal.

OAKLAND (-7.5) over Denver

Tim Tebow is not ready to lead an NFL team to a win, at least that's my opinion. And Denver was simply awful last week. I don't see how they get much better against a better Oakland team on the road.

Green Bay (+14) over NEW ENGLAND

I don't think there is a chance for Green Bay to win the game, but 2 touchdowns is a lot of points to lay to anyone. I just don't think the Pats are two TDs better than the Pack, even with Matt Flynn at QB.

Chicago (-8) over MINNESOTA

This one is all about the QB situation for Minnesota. Who is Joe Webb, where did he come from, and how is he going to have a prayer of keeping his team competitive against a good Bears team looking to bounce back from a beatdown? I can't see it.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Cleveland (PK) over CINCINNATI

Picking against the Bengals has been good all year, roll with it.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

DALLAS (-9) over Washington

Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Houston (+1.5) over TENNESSEE

There is NO reason that the Titans should be favored here. They really can not play without Vince Young. The losing streak continues, and Jeff Fisher starts getting his resume ready.

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 108-94-6
Lock Picks: 21-19

Friday, December 10, 2010

Back to business... Week 14 Picks

I hope you all enjoyed my little article on the Carl Crawford deal. But now, its back to football. Stupid Titans and their last play, last second, COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS touchdown cost me a betting win last night. They couldn't depress me more right now. Anyway, rant over, on with the picks.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Oakland

Every gambling stat points to the Jaguars in this one. Oakland is on the road, traveling cross country to play a 1:00 game. Plus, Jacksonville is just better at this point.

Cincinnati (+9) over PITTSBURGH

I never pick the Bengals, but this one could easily be a trap game for the Steelers, plus it should be low scoring and at least close. 9 points is way too high.

CHICAGO (+3) over New England

The Pats did put an other-worldly beat down on the Jets on Monday, but this is a hangover game, on a short week, in below 0 weather. I think the home team has a distinct advantage here.

Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO

This game is going to be the Peyton Hillis show all day long, and that should mean the Browns will win.

MINNESOTA (+3) over New York Giants

I liked the way the Vikings looked last week, but I really have no idea what will happen in this game. So I'll bet against Eli Manning.

Green Bay (-7) over DETROIT

The Lions have hit a bit of a stumbling block in their cover streak, and the Packers are going to be focused and desperate. Should be a breeze for Aaron Rodgers.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City

Desperation game for San Diego, and that doesn't bode well for the less talented Chiefs.

NEW ORLEANS (-10) over St. Louis

I like the Saints here because I think most people will take the points, but I think the Rams are awful on the road, and the Superdome will have Sam Bradford extremely rattled.

Seattle (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Two awful teams so I will take the points

NEW YORK JETS (-5) over Miami

The Jets simply MUST bounce back and win this game. I don't see any way they blow it, unless they are truly just a mediocre football team. I don't think they are, but we will find out on Sunday.

DALLAS (+3.5) over Philadelphia

the Cowboys have to be taken seriously since Garett took over the team. I think they can win this one.

Baltimore (-2.5) over HOUSTON

Because Baltimore is a vastly better team than Houston, and the game just shouldn't be close.


Second Runner-Up Lock of the Week

Atlanta (-9) over CAROLINA

Because whenever the best team in the league is playing the worst team in the league, you have to take the best team in the league, no matter how many points they are giving.



First Runner-Up Lock of the Week

Denver (-4.5) over ARIZONA

Wait, you mean John Skelton is the Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback? Say no more!


LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay (-2) over WASHINGTON

LaGarett Blount is going to take this game by storm, and the Bucs should have no issues dismantling the awful Redskins, who seem to have quit on their season.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 102-84-6
Lock Picks: 20-17

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Its a Very Merry Christmas in Red Sox Nation

I'm taking time off from my usual football only column, and switching over to baseball, just for a moment. You see, I am a huge Red Sox fan, and this has been the best off-season of my short life. Very rarely do things go exactly how you want for your favorite teams. Just look at how the Titans have completely collapsed in what was a once promising season. So for this week, I am focusing my efforts on Carl Crawford, the player I have been wishing for all off-season, to end up in a Sox uniform. Because as of last night, he is officially being delivered, first class, to Boston.

Let me start by briefly discussing Boston's other tremendous acquisition, Adrian Gonzalez. I loved the move, obviously, to acquire Gonzalez and make him the first baseman of the present and future in Boston. He is a supreme talent, a true power threat, who will likely hit 45 home runs playing his home games in Fenway Park. Theo Epstein gave up a hell of a package of prospects to get him, but he will be worth it. However, it simply wouldn't have been enough to go into the 2011 season with Adrian as the team's only big addition. They needed to sign Crawford. I've been doing nothing but researching, debating, and preparing for the rest of this hot stove season, and it all came back to one thing: the Red Sox need to sign Carl Crawford, and sign him now.

Last night, I was given my Christmas gift (and well, so was Crawford, a gift of $142 million). I really couldn't be happier or more excited that the Sox front office made what I consider to be the perfect move for the future of the organization. Why is signing Crawford so great you ask? Isn't it a little crazy to pay a player who isn't a power bat $20 million a season? And what about the Sox getting a little too left-handed for their own good? None of these things concern me, and I'll tell you why.

The Red Sox had very few holes in their lineup prior to the signing of Crawford. The fact that they let Victor Martinez walk to the Detroit Tigers tells us that they were okay with having a lesser offensive catcher in the young Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I'll readily admit that I was upset by this, as they had a potent bat in a position where most people do not, but Theo is enamored with this kid, and I'd like to see what he can do. Obviously they had their reasons not to give Victor the money he was looking for.

So that is hole number one, but its also a hole for just about every team in the league, which makes it less of a big deal. Now certainly, the bullpen needs work, and that will come later, for a lot cheaper dollars and on a one or two year basis. Middle relief isn't something teams generally shell out big bucks for, and I don't expect the Red Sox to start now. So really, the Sox had one and only one spot remaining in their lineup that you could argue that there was an opening, and a legitimate need, for a dramatic improvement in talent: left field. The exact position of the best free agent position player on the market, Carl Crawford. What are the Red Sox to do in this scenario? Who is the best option for the Red Sox at the left field position? Let's break down their options:

Option A) Roll with what you already have. Mike Cameron, the 38 year old outfielder who was never healthy last year and should be a fourth outfielder at best. Or young, budding outfielder Ryan Kalish, who could certainly benefit from another year in AAA, and would only be a short term solution because in all likelihood, he is the right fielder on this team once J.D. Drew's contract runs out after this year.

Option B) Sign a lesser free agent outfielder. Who was out there if you decide you don't want to extend a huge contract for this season? Couldn't be Jayson Werth, the Nationals already snatched him up with a ridiculous 7 year, 126 million dollar deal. Magglio Ordonez was talked about. He will be 37 next year, is coming off a year in which he managed to hit 12 home runs and drive in 59 runs. He has been in decline for a few years now, and has health problems. How much better is he than Cameron? what about old friend-turned-enemy Johnny Damon? Well he is 36, and already turned down a trade to go back to Boston last year. I just don't see how bringing him back in makes the team any better. And guess what? These are the best names on the outfield market in the winter of 2010!

Option C) Why not make a trade for an outfielder? Well there were a couple names talked about in potential trades, but of course, that would mean giving up assets. Carlos Beltran's name was out there, but at $18 million, and coming off two injury riddled seasons, how much more of a risk could there be? I was a little more open to the option of Josh Willingham from Washington, but he is also going to be 32 and a free agent next year, so you'd likely be giving up prospects for a one year rental, and I'm never a fan of that.

Option D) Couldn't you just wait til next year and try and find a left fielder in next year's class? Let's take a look at what our options would have been had the Sox taken this course of action:

Bobby Abreu LAA *
Jose Bautista TOR
Carlos Beltran NYM
Milton Bradley SEA
Mike Cameron BOS
Ronny Cedeno PIT
Ryan Church PIT
Jack Cust OAK
David DeJesus KC
Matt Diaz ATL
J.D. Drew BOS
Jeff Francoeur TEX
Jonny Gomes CIN
Gabe Gross OAK
Carlos Guillen DET
Corey Hart MIL
Raul Ibanez PHI
Conor Jackson ARZ
Ryan Ludwick SD
Nate McLouth ATL *
Juan Pierre CWS
Juan Rivera LAA
Cody Ross SF
Grady Sizemore CLE *
Nick Swisher NYY *
Josh Willingham WAS

On this list include both Beltran and Willingham, like I mentioned before, more rental than long term fix. Any player with an asterisk by their name means that the player's team holds an option on them, so that potentially eliminates Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore and Nick Swisher, 3 of the very few names that have any value at all on this list. So what are we left with? A group of "also rans" and fourth outfielders, and one guy who could be a stud, or a dud this season, named Corey Hart. But if Hart repeats his numbers from last season, someone would be throwing a $100+ million dollar deal at him next year, as by far the best outfielder on the market. Is this really a smart option for the Red Sox? Who would you rather have at $100+ million, Corey Hart or Carl Crawford?

No. Of course its not smart. The only smart move the Red Sox could make would be...

Option E) Sign Carl Crawford, the best free agent position player available, who happens to play the exact position of your biggest need.

And that is precisely what the Red Sox did. They filled a gigantic hole, and they fill it for the next 7 years. Getting back to the question of money. Is $142 million excessive for a player like Crawford, whose career high in home runs is 19? No, its really not. Its what the market has dictated, especially following the Werth deal. Crawford is a better player, so he had to get at least the same length, and more money. If the Red Sox wanted the player, they had to pony up the money, and they needed to make the move now, before the Yankees got more involved than they already were. As I laid out, your future options at the position just aren't there. So if the Red Sox had to go out and overpay to fill a need, they could afford to do so, and that is exactly why I love the deal so much, because they can make this signing, and still remain within a budget very similar to the 168 million dollars they paid out in 2010, which is precisely why all the Yankee fans out there that are making comments of "Congratulations on becoming exactly what you always said you hated" are way off base. Let me break it down for you:

Coming off the books in 2010:
Mike Lowell- $12.5 million
Adrian Beltre- $8 million
Victor Martinez- $7.7 million
Julio Lugo- $9 million

Just that alone accounts for a 37.2 million dollar clearing of salary. Now of course, these are not the only salaries changing. John Lackey's contract is front loaded, and will make 3 million less than last year. Several players have escalating salaries, like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis, adding a couple million here and there, plus arbitration eligible raises. I'll save you all of the gory details and tell you this: the final tally when all is said and done, including Beckett and Varitek's new contracts, Ortiz' option, the numerous smaller contracts that are no longer on the team, and the 6 million owed to Adrian Gonzalez this year, turns out to be nearly 30 million dollars coming off the books this season. That's more than enough to sign Crawford for 20 million, and even have 10 million left over to fill out the 40-man roster and sign a couple of relief pitchers! Even if they manage to jump up a couple extra million filling out the roster, its highly unlikely that they will break the $175 million threshold. Whereas if the Yankees make a huge signing with Cliff Lee, and they are expected to, that combined with the return of Andy Petitte and filling out their roster will give them a minimum of 220 million dollar budget, a good 45-50 million dollars more than that of the Red Sox. This is where the two teams differ. The Red Sox run their books as smart businessmen, knowing when they have money to spend and how to stay within budget. The Yankees run their business as a group with bottomless pockets, handing out ridiculous and borderline irresponsible contracts at any cost to win the World Series right now, future be damned. Which is why the Red Sox will never spend on the level of the Yankees, and why the Yankees budget will always continue to rise every year that they are in existence. They will never be on equal footing.

Now of course, Adrian Gonzalez is not going to be a 6 million dollar player for long. He is probably going to get a massive contract, lets say about $22 million/year after the season opens (as the Red Sox are smart, they will not announce the contract until after opening day, and will not have to factor in the contract extension to this year's luxury tax.) So this number would put the Red Sox way over their 2010 number of $168 million right? No, of course not. The Red Sox have even more money coming off the books next season. Here's a look at the contracts coming off the books at the end of 2011:

J.D. Drew- $14 million
David Ortiz- $12.5 million
Jonathan Papelbon- $10+ million
Mike Cameron- $7.75 million
Marco Scutaro- $4 million

That's $48 million, a truly staggering number. Factoring in the 16 million dollar raise that Gonzalez is likely to get, you are still left with 32 million dollars to play with. And here's the key: three of the players that you are losing here, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon and Marco Scutaro, are being replaced by players from the Red Sox own minor league system, at very cheap dollars. Probably a total of $4-6 million combined, in Daniel Bard, Ryan Kalish and Jose Iglesias. So you are looking at 26-28 million additional dollars to fill out a roster, find a right handed DH and a new 4th outfielder, along with whats likely to be another bullpen arm or two. Sound reasonable? I thought so too.

So really, the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez merely come at the perfect time for this organization. Epstein was killed when he called 2010 a "bridge year," but that is precisely what it was. A bridge to 2011 and beyond. To a time where the Red Sox have enough money coming off their books where they can spend 42 million dollars combined per year on their new acquisitions, and still somehow manage to lighten the payroll in the process. Or at worst, keep it the same.

The Red Sox know how valuable Crawford will be to their team in the next seven years. Manager Terry Francona has already called him a "game-changer." He is a true superstar, and they just don't come around that often. The Red Sox managed to get two of them this off season, which obviously leads to the Yankee comparisons, and so be it. But its funny to think that come 2012, the Red Sox will have a lineup with a very home grown feel:

C Jarrod Slatalamacchia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Jose Iglesias
3B Kevin Youkilis
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Ryan Kalish
LF Carl Crawford
DH ?

How many of these players did the Red Sox "buy" in their quest for the World Series? One: Carl Crawford. The rest either came up through the Red Sox system, or were acquired in a trade for prospects of their system. Not to mention the likes of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, or Daniel Bard, the three most important pitchers on this team. No, this lineup hasn't been bought, its been developed and planned, with the utmost detail and craftsmanship of a brilliant general manager. Carl Crawford just happened to be the perfect piece to acquire at the perfect time, to add to a team of players that are a testament to the development of the Red Sox farm system. Sometimes, you have to strike while you still can, the Yankees do this every year, sometime multiple times a year. The Red Sox waited patiently, and now it was their time. Carl Crawford was their answer. And it is a very merry Christmas indeed, for Red Sox nation. April can't get here soon enough.

Thursday Night Pick

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
The Titans are a mess and Indy should bounce back strong in this game.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Week 13 Picks

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of Yahoo.com

DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago

San Francisco (+9.5) over GREEN BAY

Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE

KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Denver

Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO

Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

St. Louis (-3) over ARIZONA

Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY

BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS


Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina


First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI


LOCK OF THE WEEK

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI


Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 92-78-6
Lock Picks: 18-16-2

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Thursday Night Pick

PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Houston

Houston's defense is just terrible enough to allow me to lay the points here.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Week 12 Picks

No commentary today, long week of family and friends. Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving! But its not too late to get your picks in, so here we go!

Minnesota (-2) over WASHINGTON

CLEVELAND (-8.5) over Carolina

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Tampa Bay

Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO

Green Bay (+1.5) over ATLANTA

San Diego (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS

OAKLAND (-3) over Miami

Kansas City (-2.5) over SEATTLE

St. Louis (+3.5) over DENVER

San Francisco (PK) over ARIZONA



Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

HOUSTON (-5.5) over TENNESSEE


First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Jacksonville (+7.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS


LOCK OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh (-6) over BUFFALO

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 84-70
Lock Picks: 16-15-2

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Week 12 Power Rankings

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We will get to my picks for the three games later on, but first, I owe you fine folks some power rankings! Sit back, relax, watch football, eat turkey and read through the list. Enjoy!

The Elite

1. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons have been the NFC's best team all year, and now, it appears as if they are the best team in all of football. Winners of four straight, they rise to the top for the first time all season. Will they be able to stay there?

2.Baltimore Ravens- You know by now what the Ravens have to offer. They have some of the best skill players in all of football, their defense is weak by their standards, but still pretty good, and they know how to win games. Still like them to come out of the AFC.

3. New York Jets- Just when you think you have the Jets on the ropes, they come firing right back and win. That is a very dangerous sign for the rest of the AFC. A talented team that has a swagger where they think even if they get down they are never out? Scary.

4. Green Bay Packers- I picked them (again) to win the Super Bowl, and despite the losses of Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley for the season, they are finally starting to look like an elite team. I thought the injuries would be a bit too much to overcome, but as long as one man doesn't go down, they are going to be right in the hunt for the crown. Aaron Rodgers.

5. New England Patriots- I have been a doubter of this team for a while, considering how young and unspectacular their defense is, but they just keep beating whoever you put in front of them. I have no choice but to include them amongst the NFL's Elite, after beating the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers- I still have to put the Steelers in here because of their defense, which is the best in the game. They have a great QB that can beat anyone and has proven it, but they have also shown some vulnerability against the league's better teams. Six is a great spot for the Steelers.


The Contenders

7. Philadelphia Eagles- After what they did to the Redskins, they sure looked like an elite team... but then they played a sub-par game against the Giants and barely escaped with the win, so for now, they simply lead the pack of contenders, but that's not all that bad!

8. Indianapolis Colts- They were able to give the Pats a late scare, but couldn't pull the same feat from 2009 in 2010. Can never go against Peyton Manning winning the AFC South, and I should know this by now. Silly to think this team won't be causing problems for someone in the playoffs.

9. San Diego Chargers- This is an Elite team just waiting to break out. The Chargers haven't lost a December game since 2005, when Drew Brees was still their quarterback. They are about to hit their stride, and dominate the second half of the season, led by Phillip Rivers and his MVP quest.

10. New Orleans Saints- Still hyper-talented, and starting to get healthy. The scary thing is, they have a better defense than last year. I wouldn't want to play Drew Brees in a playoff game, that's for sure. Especially if you have to do it at the Superdome.

11. Chicago Bears- Winners of three straight, Can't keep them out of the contending ranks. I don't see how they don't end up fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC, and I think they get one (with New Orleans grabbing the other).

12. Kansas City Chiefs- Once again, I think that once we get to the Chiefs, its about that time when we get out of the contending ranks.


The Mediocre

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- They just won't... go... AWAY. Josh Freeman is legit. I apologize to the Freeman family for ever doubting him. They win games. I don't know how they do it but they do. I think they just miss the playoffs this season, but with Freeman at the helm, I think they could come back with a vengeance next season.

14. New York Giants- Ha! These past two weeks have exposed the Giants for the frauds they are! Watch them miss the playoffs. Watch!

15. Oakland Raiders- The very definition of mediocre. They will play well one week, pull off a win, then get handled easily by a clearly better team the next.

16. Tennessee Titans- Sigh.... I was so ready for my team to make a run. To take over the top rank of the NFL. TO finally start capitalizing on all of the potential.... and then Vince Young gets hurt, pissed off, and throws his pads into the stands. Then Jeff Fisher gets pissed off and says he is no longer the quarterback. Then VY is put on IR. Have you ever seen a team with so much potential fall apart this fast? I haven't. The problem is, this team is best when Vince is healthy and playing. Sure, he has attitude problems, but he is a damn good football player and his record proves it. He knows how to win. I have all the respect for Fisher as a coach, but if I had to choose between coach and quarterback, I side with Vince. I know the kind of results this team has with him in the lineup, and those when he isn't. I shutter to think about the Rusty Smith era. This sucks.

17. Cleveland Browns- And the Browns keep climbing. This team is legitimately talented enough to compete with anyone. I praised the Lions last time, this week, that same type of praise goes to Cleveland. They play a ton of tight games and pull off the occasional win. They are headed quickly in the right direction.

18. Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys are showing signs of the team that everyone thought they would be going into the season. Sure it was against the Giants and Lions, two mediocre teams, but still, the Jason Garrett era has been a success so far. The Cowboys should have taken my advice and fired Wade Phillips the minute after they lost to the pitiful Redskins in week one.

19. Detroit Lions- I mentioned the Lions in each of the last two paragraphs, and look, here they are! They are easily the best 2-8 team I have ever seen. All this means is that they will get another chance to nail another high draft pick (like they appear to have done with Suh, Stafford and Best). They play every team close (bar the Cowboy game) and they should have at least 4-5 wins. They would be winning the NFC West, if they were lucky enough to be put in that crap division.

20. Houston Texans- I think we all know the story with this team by now. Uber-talented, no winner's edge. They might need to just blow the whole thing up and start from scratch, again.

21. Miami Dolphins- I'm pretty sure Miami is the most boring team in the NFL. They don't really do anything particularly well. They are on their third mediocre QB of the season. They are .500. Can anyone actually care one way or another about Miami? I know I can't.

22. Seattle Seahawks- WE finally get our first NFC West team... at spot number 22! One of these teams needs to make the playoffs, and I really hope it prompts the NFL to think about a seeded playoff, because there is no way the Seahawks deserve the playoff spot they currently sit in.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars- Remember when I said I couldn't figure out how this team was 4-4? Well now they are 6-4... If the Miami Dolphins are the league's most boring team, the Jags are definitely the most puzzling.

24. Washington Redskins- Followed closely by the Washington Redskins. Who knows what to make of this mediocre team?

25. St. Louis Rams- They can'[t win on the road, they are bad in their own horrible division, they are 4-6, but for some reason I think people think they might be good. I think its a result of them being so awful last year and then finding some early improvement this season, but they rest at the very bottom of the mediocre for me, an improvement, but nothing to be proud of.


The Garbage

26. Denver Broncos- They got blown out by a pretty damn good team in San Diego, so I won't penalize them too much for that. Still, they aren't very good whatsoever.

27. Minnesota Vikings- They finally fired Brad Childress, which is something that should have happened a long time ago. Now, maybe if they sit their quarterback, they might actually have something here! Wait, its already week 12? Oh....

28. San Francisco 49ers- Sigh... something tells me this team won't be going 9-7. Is Mike Singletary the third coach that Green Bay gets fired? We'll find out next week! Wouldn't that be something?

29. Buffalo Bills- Whoa Ho! The Buffalo Bills are on a winning streak! Who needs Andrew Luck when you've got Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging the ball! And I'm only half kidding...

30. Cincinnati Bengals- Couldn't feel any more vindicated in saying that this team was going to take a huge step backward this season.

31. Arizona Cardinals- Make it five losses in a row for this absolutely atrocious football team. I can't even tell you who their starting quarterback is right now, because I don't hate myself enough to care about Arizona Cardinals football this year.

32. Carolina Panthers- I do, however, know who is the quarterback for the Panthers. His name is Brian St. Pierre. And that is why they are in last place.


And now, on to my Turkey Day picks!

DETROIT (+7) over New England

I'm pretty sure that I'm just going to pick Detroit every week. they are 8-2 against the spread, and the only time I didn't pick them, they blew out the Rams. I'm rolling with them, and the points.

New Orleans (-4) over DALLAS

I think this Dallas mini run ends here on Thanksgiving, when Drew Bress cuts up their mediocre defense.

NEW YORK JETS (-9) over Cincinnati

The Jets are awesome, and the Bengals suck. I don't care how big the line is, this should be a blowout.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Week 11 Picks

Always good to be right in the Thursday night game. On with the rest of this week's picks.

Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Oakland (+7.5) over PITTSBURGH

Oakland is a legitimate threat and this line is just too high to ignore. No one should be giving more than a touchdown against Oakland. Congrats Raider fans.

NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) over HOUSTON

Great defense beats great offense, especially when that great offense has a wounded QB.

Baltimore (-11.5) over CAROLINA

Nothing about this matchup indicates anything short of a blow out. Third string QB, third string RB, worst team in the league versus arguably its best. I'd take Baltimore even if the line was 17.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Washington

If the Eagles can embarrass the Skins like they did on Monday, so can the Titans.

Green Bay (-3.5) over MINNESOTA

Despite all the injuries, Green Bay is still playing good football and it is a true testament to the mighty Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota on the other hand, is left with old man Favre, and its just sad at this point. I don't think his last chance against his former team will end well for him.

Buffalo (+5) over CINCINNATI

Two bad teams, take the points. Very simple philosophy but it works often enough. Congrats on the win last week Buffalo!

Cleveland (+2) over JACKSONVILLE

I just like Cleveland as a better team. I don't trust the Jags, at all.

Arizona (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY

KC is sliding down the mediocrity avalanche and they are still getting 8 and a half. I'll take those points. They have proven to be nothing special the past few weeks, and that is a huge number.

NEW ORLEANS (-12) over Seattle

Again, a game with a huge number, but I think the Saints are playing well and the Hawks aren't at all (unless they are playing a division game in the horrible NFC West.) This has blowout written all over it.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Tampa Bay

Another team playing good football against one who has overachieved a bit. I happen to like this Troy Smith era in San Fran, and maybe, just maybe, they can still win their division. A sad, sad statement, but its entirely possible for them to be a game out after this week.

NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Indianapolis

Indy is banged up, can't run the ball, can't stop the run, and basically has no one other than Peyton Manning..... BUT since they do have Manning, that means they could definitely pull this off. Its an absolute gambling stay away, but there is too much going in New England's favor here, and they just don't lose regular season games at home.

Denver (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO

If I'm wrong, its ok, because I will just feel vindicated that this San Diego team is that good, and my 12-1 Super Bowl bet on them was a good investment. I like San Diego to win, but a closer game than the line suggests.

Second Runner-up Lock of the Week

Detroit (+6.5) over DALLAS

So the Cowboys beat an overrated Giants team and they start getting treated like they are good? Please! Detroit is always a good bet to take the points, why stray from that now?

First Runner-up Lock of the Week

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over New York Giants

Did you see the Monday night game???? Vick was like the bionic man out there! The Giants are going to have their hands full with him, considering they couldn't even handle Jon Kitna. Unless Vick gets hurt, I think the Eagles roll here.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Atlanta (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS

I am obviously a firm believer in this Atlanta team, and they will be well rested and ready to go against a St. Louis team that has been a bit of an overachiever this season. Atlanta shuts them up in a hurry.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 77-61-6
Lock Picks: 14-14-2

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Thursday Night Pick

Chicago (+1) over MIAMI

I don't trust Tyler Thigpin to beat even a mediocre Bears team. It could go either way, but I like the more experienced quarterback.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Week 10 Picks!

Well, I start out this week 0-1 after the Ravens blew a perfect opportunity to cement their status as the number one team in football, but lets see if I can bounce back from that to put together my third solid week in a row.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Tennessee (-1.5) over MIAMI

Chad Pennington does not scare me. Kerry Collins does, but only a little. I'm still taking the Titans though.

CHICAGO (+1) over Minnesota

Neither team is good, and Chicago is home, plus they are slight underdogs, so I'll gladly pick against Brett Favre.

New York Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND

I don't think Cleveland is good enough to knock off two superior teams in a row. And the Jets will not overlook them the way the Patriots did.

TAMPA BAY (-7) over Carolina

Carolina is just so bad that any team that is even mediocre should blow them out.

Kansas City (-1.5) over DENVER

I am not confident in this, but I just think Denver is a really bad football team, so KC should pull it off, even on the road in Denver.

St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

I don't get this line, but I'll have no problem betting against the Niners in this one. And I will STILL be wrong.

ARIZONA (-3.5) over SEATTLE

What a garbage football game. Charlie Whitehurst vs. Max Hall. Fans should get a refund. Probably the worst game we've had all season.

Dallas (+14) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I just don't feel comfortable picking the Giants as 14 point favorites over anyone, even this pitiful Dallas team. The teams know each other well enough that it should be closer than that.

New England (+5) over PITTSBURGH

I think Pittsburgh will win, but its certainly not inconceivable that the Pats pull it off, and it should be closer than 5. Tom Brady always comes back strong after a loss, and I see it here again, even if I think they come up just short.

Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON

I don't feel comfortable picking Washington against a contender unless they are getting a TD+. That is not the case here.


Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati

So the Bengals are finally getting a touchdown+ from Vegas. Nope, still not enough for me to take them over Indy.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Detroit (+3) over BUFFALO

How is Detroit a three point dog to a team that hasn't won a game? Its almost too obvious, but I'm taking the Lions to improve to 8-1 against the spread on the season.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Houston (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville is a pitiful team. This game should not even be close, and Houston is getting points?!?!? I'm puzzled.


Last Week: 9-3-1
Overall: 69-55-6
Lock Picks: 13-12-2

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Week 10 Power Rankings

The Elite

1. Baltimore Ravens- Nothing has swayed me from believing they are the league's best team. They appear to finally be playing up to their full potential.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers- The top two teams both reside in the same division! Crazy, but true. No denying how great Pittsburgh has been all season, these guys just wear you down with their physical, smashmouth play.

3. Tennessee Titans- You heard me. Highest scoring team in the league. Second best point differential. Blew out the Giants. And they just ADDED a superstar receiver to stretch the field and open up the field for Chris Johnson. Can you say elite?

4. Atlanta Falcons- They keep proving week in and week out to be the best in the NFC, and I think they can stand up to the AFC teams as well. The only team I can say that about, which is why they jump to elite status.

5. New York Jets- They fall a few spots after the scare from the Lions, but they remain one of the few Elite teams in this year's NFL.

The Contenders

6. Green Bay Packers- Even as injured as they are, they continue to win games. They obliterated the Cowboys last week, and cost Wade Phillips his job. They are very close to Elite, but just not quite there yet.

7. Indianapolis Colts- The Eagles had two weeks to prepare and home field advantage, and the Colts still almost beat them. Peyton Manning is simply too damn good. Isn't there another league he can play in, like a God league or something? They keep losing weapons and he still keeps them competitive week in and week out. It will be tough to make the playoffs in the AFC this year, but I wouldn't bet against Peyton single handedly dragging this team in.

8. New England Patriots- Yes, they fell into the classic trap game against Cleveland, so I'm not going to hold that against them too much. They are still pretty damn good, but the upcoming schedule does not get friendlier for this team. They might lose three in a row entering a better than you think Lions team on Thanksgiving. We'll see how they handle it.

9. New Orleans Saints- No, they aren't last year's Saints, but they are certainly still a contender in the weak NFC. They can still beat just about anyone on any given Sunday.

10. San Diego Chargers- Don't look now, but the Chargers have won two in a row, have a bye this week, will be getting Vincent Jackson back soon after, and should be getting several weapons healthy. Did I just place a bet on their Super Bowl odds at 12-1? You bet I did.

11. New York Giants- Beating Charlie Whitehurst is not something to brag about. I can't WAIT to bet against this team in the playoffs. Just saying, they are overrated and will continue to be so with their pillow soft schedule.

12. Philadelphia Eagles- They did impress against the Colts, and they have a lot of weapons on offense. If Vick can continue to provide the team with a spark and stay on the field, they will win the NFC East, and might even win a playoff game.

13. Kansas City Chiefs- The wheels are definitely starting to come off here... but they do still sit on top of the AFC West, for now... we need to get out of the Contenders and move on...

The Mediocre

14. Oakland Raiders- The team that showed that the Chiefs are starting to unravel, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are any good either. They shouldn't have won the game, but they did. This is the perfect spot for them, as they aren't bad anymore, but there is no way they contend for a playoff spot this year.

15. Chicago Bears- Yup, we really are at the mediocre when we hit chicago. everything about this team is just meh.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Josh Freeman is better than I ever gave him credit for, and there might be something here in the future, but they aren't getting there this season.

17. Detroit Lions- Yes, they are 2-6, but this team is a lot better than their record suggests. If they didn't lose their starting QB late in the game against the Jets, they probably knock off an elite team. They have lost a lot of tight games, as evidenced by the fact that they are 7-1 against the spread. I like the way they are heading.

18. Houston Texans- another season, same story for the Texans, and their fans. Lots of promise, but they just can't get over the hump.

19. Miami Dolphins- Making the change to Chad Pennington just screams of desperation for this once promising squad.

20. St. Louis Rams- Tough to guage whether or not they are for real, but hey, maybe, just maybe, they pull off the division and get obliterated in the playoffs.

21. Cleveland Browns- Colt McCoy wins football games! I can't wait to see how his career develops and see just how many teams end up kicking themselves for passing on him.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Brett Favre's team is now bordering on garbage level. It took them to overtime to beat the Cardinals. They desperately need Sidney Rice back in the lineup, but its already way to late.

23. Washington Redskins- McNabb or Grossman? Well apparently Shanahan can't make up his mind. If I were a Redskins fan, I'd be needing someone to talk me off the ledge right about now.

The Garbage

24. Seattle Seahawks- As long as Charlie Whitehurst is the quarterback, how can they be above garbage level? They weren't even good to begin with.

25. San Fransisco 49ers- They are still a mess, just slightly less of a mess than they were two weeks ago.

26. Cincinnati Bengals- unfortunately I think we might be approaching the point where Vegas finally realizes this team is awful and I don't get to win an easy game against the spread every week.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars- I honestly can't for the life of me figure out how this team is 4-4.

28. Arizona Cardinals- Three losses in a row, no real excuse, they just aren't very good. Maybe we should have given Kurt Warner the MVP every year this team was actually good?

29. Denver Broncos- Well, at least the Cardinals haven't lost four straight, like the Broncos have.

30. Dallas Cowboys- Or 5 in a row, like Dallas! Damn what an embarrassment Green Bay handed them. What a joke of a team this is. Wade Phillips was fired half a season too late, and there is just nothing going for this team. Kitna at QB, turning the ball over at record paces, they just can't beat anyone at this point. Well, except maybe these next two teams.

31. Carolina Panthers- You know, I really wanted to put them last, because they deserve it. They are abysmal in every sense of the game.

32. Buffalo Bills- But until Buffalo actually beats a team, I can't move them out of the bottom spot. If you are winless, you get 32, its just that simple.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

The Thursday Night Week 10 Pick

Baltimore (PK) over ATLANTA

I'll take the team that I still think is the best team in the league, over the team that is the best in the crappy NFC. Baltimore looked VERY sharp against Miami. Let's see if Flacco and the boys can keep it going.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Week 9 Picks

I've lost so much sleep this week, and with loss of sleep also comes loss of writing, unfortunately. But I will keep giving you guys my picks for every Sunday. I'm coming off a great week last week, so lets try and keep that going.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Chicago (-3) over Buffalo

San Diego (-3) over HOUSTON

New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA

Arizona (+7.5) over MINNESOTA

Tampa Bay (+9) over ATLANTA

DETROIT (+5.5) over New York Jets

Miami (+5) over BALTIMORE

Kansas City (+.5) over OAKLAND

Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

GREEN BAY (-8) over Dallas

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

New York Giants (-7) over SEATTLE

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

New England (-4) over CLEVELAND

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI

Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 60-52-5
Lock Picks: 11-11-2

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Week 8 Picks

Home team in CAPS

Lines Courtesy of sportsbetting.com

San Fransisco (-2.5) over Denver

Jacksonville (+6.5) over DALLAS

DETROIT (-2.5) over Washington

Green Bay (+6) over NEW YORK JETS

Carolina (+1.5) over ST. LOUIS

Tennessee (+4) over SAN DIEGO

OAKLAND (-3) over Seattle

NEW ENGLAND (-6) over Minnesota

Pittsburgh (+1) over NEW ORLEANS

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Houston

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

KANSAS CITY (-7) over Buffalo

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Tampa Bay (+3) over ARIZONA

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Miami (+1) over CINCINNATI

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 51-48-5
Lock Picks: 9-10-2

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Week 8 Power Rankings

The Elite

1. Baltimore Ravens- even if they were not impressive in their win over Buffalo, they still pulled it off, and thus, I can't drop them out of the top spot.

2. New York Jets- Bye week, stay at number 2.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- And the Steelers stay at number 3, but this time they round out the Elite teams after squeaking by Miami. I still believe these are the only three Elite teams through this stage of the season, and these are them.

The Contenders

4. Tennessee Titans- Boy did Kenny Britt make a name for himself this week huh? The Titans finally have a serious weapon in the passing game, to compliment the league's best running back. I really like their chances at going deep in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they play in the AFC.

5. Atlanta Falcons- Unlike the Falcons, who play in the abysmal NFC and have stood out, at least in my opinion, to be the best team in the Conference.

6. Indianapolis Colts- Why bet against Peyton Manning? Even with all of their injuries, they are still pretty close to an Elite team.

7. New England Patriots- The first team with some significant movement, I have been very impressed with how well New England has played the last two weeks. Very surprising that they pulled off wins against both the Ravens and Chargers. There is no way we can't call them contenders at this point.

8. Kansas City- The clear surprise team of the season, Kansas City continues to prove that they are legit, bouncing back from two tough losses to crush the Jaguars this past week. I'm a believer.

9. Green Bay Packers- Even with a bruised, battered and broken lineup, they beat the Vikings on Sunday night. They may not get much healthier and it is definitely a concern, but playing in the NFC keeps them contenders for sure.

10. Houston Texans- off a bye, but still one of the more balanced teams in the league. Unfortunate for them, they are in a division with two teams ranked above them.

11. New York Giants- Still the luckiest team in the league and you can't convince me otherwise. Three wins against backup QBs? And they still only beat the Kitna-led Cowboys by five? When are we going to see the real Giants against a good team? Unfortunately, their schedule is so soft that it may not come til very late in the season. Why haven't I bet on the AFC to win the Super Bowl yet?

The Mediocre

12. Seattle Seahawks- The definition of a mediocre team. 4-2, great at home, bad on the road, two of their wins come against their own awful division, and they are a pretty good bet to make the playoffs. Sad.

13. Chicago Bears- Another quintessential mediocre team. Do you feel confident that they can beat anyone going into a game? With that big of a hole in their offensive line, Cutler might not survive the season.

14. San Diego- I don't care that they are 2-5. They shouldn't be. They have one of the best offenses AND best defenses in the league. They should have a much better record, and I can see them bouncing back in a BIG way in the second half. Very deceiving record.

15. Washington Redskins- Nope, still not ready to call them contenders.

16. Philadelphia Eagles- The QB carousel will continue after next week, which I don't think is very fair to Kevin Kolb. His team lost to one of the best teams in football, and it wasn't his fault. Yet they feel more comfortable watching Mike Vick try and run around after his injury. I think its a mistake, but either way they are nothing more than another mediocre NFC team.

17. Miami Dolphins- Another team that could win any time out, but could also lose to any team in the league. Completely inconsistent, but should have beaten the Steelers and got hosed on a poor ruling by the officials.

18. New Orleans- They lost to the Browns, who aren't as bad as people think, but still aren't good either. They are suffering one giant Super Bowl Hangover, but in the NFC, they could still very easily grab a Wild Card spot.

19. Oakland Raiders- Wow. What got into the Oakland Raiders this week? It made very little sense, but hey, neither has anything in the NFL this year. I can't call a team that put up 59 Garbage, just can't do it.

20. Cleveland Browns- Like I said, they are not as bad as people think. Colt McCoy could be a player in this league yet. Maybe there will be a few teams who wished they hadn't passed on him, he looks decent for a rookie.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Their 4-2 record is about as deceiving as the Chargers 2-5.

22. St. Louis Rams- The team that lost to the team directly above this past week. They keep showing that they are just good enough to lose to other mediocre teams. But hey, for this Rams team, that's actually considered a plus!

23. Detroit Lions- They have actually outscored opponents on the season, and are 1-6. They almost beat the Giants with their third string QB, and they get Stafford back this week. Time to make your move, Lions.

The Garbage

24. Dallas Cowboys- No more Tony Romo, a 1-5 record, despite all the talent on the team, they are Garbage and going absolutely nowhere. Sorry Jerry.

25. Minnesota Vikings- Ahhh Brett Favre's swan song. Nothing is more satisfying than watching this scumbag's career and reputation go down in flames simultaneously. When will the streak end? Will it happpen due to injury, or coach's decision? I'll watch, gleefully.

26. Cincinnati Bengals- Yup, still being overrated, still a very easy call to bet against them, and they are still going to continue to lose and finish last in the division. Yup, behind Cleveland.

27. Arizona Cardinals- This team could make the playoffs. I don't think there is anything more to say about the state of the NFC.

28. San Francisco 49ers- Ladies and gentlemen, the Troy Smith era is about to begin!

29. Jacksonville Jaguars- Two of their three wins came against teams ranked lower than them. And there are only 3 teams ranked lower than them. I've said enough.

30. Denver Broncos- Turns out I wasn't being too harsh last time. I was being far, far too generous. What happened, Denver? 59 points allowed to the Raiders on your home field? Disgusting.

31. Carolina Panthers- At least they got in the win column this week, even if it was against the lowly Niners.

32. Buffalo Bills- They may be 0-6, but they sure did lose in style last week against Baltimore. Their offense is actually moving the ball. But until they get a win, there is no logical reason to move them up any higher.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Week 7 Picks

The NFL is a cruel, unpredictable mistress. Sometimes, there is just no rhyme or reason to her ways. I had the worst week of my picking career last week, after a steady string of .500 weeks. It was brutal. The only good I took away from the week was a 30-3 drubbing that Tennessee laid on the Jaguars. Honestly, I'm just going to chalk up last week as a fluke. That's why I'm not doing a power rankings this week (well that and being slammed with other work and getting no sleep all week).

One thing I will say though, pound the overs this week. The officials are going to be over-reacting left and right on every hit that is even close to illegal, meaning 15 yard penalties galore. If you bet over/unders, this week was built for you.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI

Don't see any reason why they wouldn't win this game. They are probably the best team in football right now.

KANSAS CITY (-9) over Jacksonville

This game is off over at Sportsbetting, but I found this on another site so I'm rolling with it. The Jags are on their third string quarterback, this should be an EASY win for KC.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Philadelphia

Both teams performed very well last week, but I just think Tennessee is better overall. Should be some fireworks here though, a good one to watch.

CHICAGO (-3) over Washington

Because Chicago is due for a good game, and Washington is due for a stinker.

Cleveland (+13) over NEW ORLEANS

Because I haven't picked an underdog yet, and Colt McCoy looked good in his first start.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Buffalo

This game could be a shutout. Ed Reed is back in business for Blatimore, and the Bills are simply awful.

CAROLINA (+3) over San Francisco

Because I HATE San Francisco.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis

I'm still holding out hope that the Rams won't win 5 games, so really this is wishful thinking in a game that no one in their right mind would want to watch.

SAN DIEGO (-2.5) over New England

They are extremely desperate and I'm still not totally sold on the Patriots. Plus they play infinitely better at home and Phillip Rivers is bound to be pissed off, so I like them.

Oakland (+7.5) over DENVER

Everyone and their mother is picking the Broncos, but hell, who says Kyle Boller can't come out and shock the world. This is the NFL we are living in people!!!

Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY

It is physically painful for me to pick the completely overrated and joke of a team led by Brett Favre over my Super Bowl pick, but, the Packers are just too beat up. The Vikings catch them at the PERFECT time.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

SEATTLE (-6.5) over Arizona

Max Hall on the road in the league's toughest environment? I don't like that combination. the Seattle defense dominates this one.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

DALLAS (-3.5) over New York Giants

The Giants almost lost to the Detroit Lions... who were playing their THIRD STRING QUARTERBACK. Dallas is desperate to save their season and they are at home. I think they win this game, easily.

LOCK OF THE WEEK


ATLANTA
(-3.5) over Cincinnati

It is crazy how much Vegas continues to overrate this Cincinnati team. Atlanta needs to bounce back here and I think they will, easily.


Last week: 4-9-1
Overall: 44-41-5
Lock Picks: 7-9-2

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Week 6 Picks

Sorry guys, but lack of time this week makes for a lack of commentary on the picks, only really short notes this week. Be sure to peruse the power rankings for some explanation as to what I think about these teams. Here are my week 6 picks.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

San Diego (-8) over ST. LOUIS
San Diego can't lay two eggs in a row to Garbage teams

Kansas City (+5) over HOUSTON
KC is simply playing better than Houston at this point.

TAMPA BAY (+4.5) over New Orleans
Tampa is on the rise and New Orleans is on the decline. Ripe upset pick.

Detroit (+10.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
As I said in my power rankings, potential upset pick here as Eli is never very consistent and Detroit hitting stride.

CHICAGO (-6.5) over Seattle
Seattle on the road and Cutler is back this week. Bears might pitch a shutout.

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over MIAMI
Let's hope Aaron Rodgers isn't hampered by his injury.

Cleveland (+13.5) over PITTSBURGH
Like I said, Cleveland generally keeps it close, and I think their will be some rust on Big Ben. Expect a lot of running game for both teams, which shouldn't mean a blowout.

New York Jets (-3) over DENVER
I can't see the Broncos staying close against the Jets. Revis and Cromartie should give their passing game fits.

Oakland (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO
I'll take the points, and then San Fran will get their first win in a blowout. Just watch.

Dallas (+1.5) over MINNESOTA
Too much going against Minnesota in this must win game for both teams.

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

I really hope the Titans aren't going to toy with my emotions all season, with one good week, followed by a bad. They are due for a bad one, but Jacksonville just doesn't scare me.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Baltimore (+2.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Don't know why New England is the favorite over the best team in football.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Indianapolis (-3) over WASHINGTON
The Redskins can't beat the Colts.... can they?


LOCK OF THE WEEK


Atlanta (+2) over PHILADELPHIA
This line is a joke, Atlanta should be favored by 6.

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 40-32-4
Lock Picks: 6-8-1

Friday, October 15, 2010

Week 6 Power Rankings

I'm going to use a little bit different format this time around, still trying different things to see what works best. I'm going to say a little bit about each team and why they moved to where they did, instead of writing paragraphs at the end of each section. Lets see if you like it better or worse.

The Elite

1. Baltimore Ravens- Yes, finally we have someone who has broken into the Elite. With wins over both the number 2 and 3 teams, the Ravens hold strong at the top of the rankings, and are a truly elite level team in this NFL with very few of them.
2. New York Jets- There are two Elite level teams to be precise, and the Jets are the other. 4-1 on the year and they have looked dominant on defense (expected) and better than average on offense (a pleasant surprise for Jets fans). Their only loss came against the only team that ranks ahead of them. Good luck to anyone who draws them in the near future. Can LT keep this up? He looks young again.


The Contenders

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- There is a very good chance that Pittsburgh becomes the third elite team next week. They are 3-1, have the best defense in the league, and are getting their starting quarterback back this week. I just want to see if Big Ben is ready to go or if there will be some rust. We'll find out this week.
4. Atlanta Falcons- In a season where every team seems to fall flat, Atlanta keeps chugging along. They can't be any lower than 4, and look like a lock to win the NFC South.
5. Indianapolis Colts- This is where things begin to get seriously dicey. Every other team I had as contenders last week came out and laid an egg, so Indy jumps all of them by beating previously unbeaten Kansas City. This is probably about right for the Colts at this point.
6. Tennessee Titans- The Titans played like they are capable of against a tough but underachieving Cowboys team. If they play like this, they can beat anyone, which is why they jump back into the ring of contenders this week.
7. Chicago Bears- They beat an atrocious team, but they had a terrible quarterback starting for them. Their record stands at 4-1 and they get Cutler back this week. That defense is legit.
8. San Diego Chargers- I know they lost to the Raiders, but they SHOULDN'T have lost to the Raiders. They thoroughly dominated that game, and only lost because of blocked kicks. They are scary on offense.
9. Kansas City Chiefs- They didn't win, but their loss to the Colts was just as impressive as their wins. I really think they remain a contender, and if they can ever figure out a passing game, they can be VERY scary.
10. Green Bay Packers- Losing that game to the Redskins was an embarrassment. They need to bounce back in a hurry, and they are suffering some serious injuries. My Super Bowl Pick is in shambles right now.
11. Houston Texans- Another team that I think is a legitimate contender that laid an egg against a mediocre team. But hey, maybe the Giants are better than we thought?

The Mediocre

12. New Orleans Saints- They don't look like defending Super Bowl champions, and with their loss to the awful Cardinals, they drop from the ranks of contenders. Get it together New Orleans or you will be on the outside looking in come the post-season.
13. New England Patriots- Off a bye this week. Lost Randy Moss, only lost one spot here though. Lets see how they do against Baltimore.
14. Washington Redskins- They beat Green Bay, but they looked ugly doing it. I'm just not ready to call this team a contender yet. I don't know if I ever will be.
15. Philadelphia Eagles- The definition of a mediocre team. Just good enough to get by, not good enough to be a real contender.
16. New York Giants- The pinnacle of inconsistency. Just when they suck you in they will lay an egg. Watch out for a Detroit upset this week.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-1. Beat the Saints this week, and then we will have something serious to consider here.
18. Miami Dolphins- Off a bye, no movement.
19. Dallas Cowboys- Their is just too much talent on this team to rank them any lower, despite their 1-4 record.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars- A win is a win, even if it is against the Bills.
21. Denver Broncos- Maybe I'm being a bit harsh here, but I don't trust a team with a bad defense and no running game. Even if they can throw the hell out of the ball.
22. Minnesota Vikings- Lost to an elite team, but they didn't look good doing it, plus their starting quarterback is acting as if he might miss time. I just see this team going straight downhill into the gutter.
23. Seattle Seahawks- Off a bye, move up one spot as others proved to suck more than them.
24. Cleveland Browns- They at least manage to keep games relatively close every time out, which keeps them above Garbage level.
25. Detroit Lions- Now THAT is how you break out of the Garbage bracket! They laid a whooping on the Rams, and should really have 2 wins already. If they beat the Giants this week, they will continue to vault up the list.

The Garbage

26. Cincinnati Bengals- This team is Garbage. They are not good, at all. Everyone needs to stop overrating them.
27. Arizona Cardinals- I don't care that they won, I'm still not buying the Max Hall era.
28. St. Louis Rams- they lose to the Lions, they get the Lions former spot. They were just dominated.
29. Oakland Raiders- they get no recognition for beating the Chargers. That was a fluke of all flukes type game. They were outplayed and they shouldn't have won, I'm not moving them up for playing poorly. Sorry Raiders fans.
29. San Francisco 49ers- I still think they can turn it around, with their schedule being so awful, but until they actual start to make that turnaround, I can't realistically rank them higher.
31. Carolina Panthers- The only team that might be as bad as...
32. Buffalo Bills- The Buffalo Bills. Someone has to be last, and they seem to be quite comfortable in the spot.

Check back later for Week 6 Picks!

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Week 5 Picks

Another .500 week last week, and I guess it could be worse. I could be putting up losing weeks. Still have a strong overall record on the season. Lets try and get in the positive category this time around.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

BALTIMORE (-7) over Denver

The team at the top of my power rankings at home against a mediocre team due for a hangover game. Baltimore please.

Kansas City (-7.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Great line for this one, and it could easily go either way. Lots of factors in this one. Kansas City has obviously overachieved so far on the season so far, while Indianapolis has underachieved based on their expectations. Indy is terrible at stopping the run and the Chiefs have a pair of fantstic backs. The Colts are due for a bounce back and its tough to bet against Peyton Manning coming off a loss. I'm going to take the Chiefs to keep it close, but Indy to win the game. I just have to take the points.

St. Louis (+3) over DETROIT

Another game I'm not completely sold on, as I usually take the points when its between two bad teams, and I think the Rams are better anyway. Its going to be a bad game that I have no interest in watching, so I'm just going to take the points and move on.

Tampa Bay (+7) over CINCINNATI

Speaking of those Bengals, I'm going to keep picking against them until Vegas realizes they aren't very good. Tampa Bay keeps it close, if not wins.

Chicago (+1.5) over CAROLINA

Todd Collins vs Jimmy Clausen. Does anyone actually want to see this game? Its nearly impossible to pick, because the bears would be favored with Cutler in the game, but with Collins who knows what will happen. I still think they win, I just can't but Carolina as a legitimate football team.

Green Bay (-2.5) over WASHINGTON

Ok Washington, here is your chance. At home, against a depleted Packer team, still underdogs. If you can pull this one off, I'll accept you as a legitimate team, if not, you still suck. I'm not counting on them coming through.

HOUSTON (-3) over New York Giants

New York realizes that playing against Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is a little more challenging than taking on Todd Collins and Johnny Knox. And having an offensive line is great too. Houston wins easily.

San Diego (-6) over OAKLAND

For some reason, Vegas still likes this Raider team. It doesn't make sense. San Diego is rolling right now. They just throughly dominated Arizona and Oakland lost to Houston by a touchdowm last week. San Diego is better than Houston. Its a classic upset type game, but I'm betting on San Diego's talent.

Tennessee (+7) over DALLAS

I think this line is about right, but I think the Titans have a bounce back game against Dallas, who really hasn't been that impressive. I can't not pick my team here, getting a full touchdown.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Philadelphia

THIS is the game San Francisco finally gets a win. They are going to crush Kevin Kolb on defense. I like Kolb, I really do, but the Niners couldn't be more desperate. Plus they are at home. Doesn't set up well for a rookie QB who's team abandoned him already this season.

NEW YORK JETS (-4) over Minnesota

Minnesota is a mediocre team, even with Randy Moss. Brett Favre's penis is all over the internet (allegedly). And the Jets are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. What's not to like with New York at home in the Monday Nighter. Nothing.

Second Runner-up Lock of the Week

Jacksonville (+2) over BUFFALO

Buffalo is the worst team in football, yet they are favored here. Likely due to a warm weather team coming into Buffalo, and Jacksonville is the biggest candidate for a hangover there is after beating the Colts last week. I just don't see how Buffalo can stop them. MJD should have a big game and the Bills should drop to 0-5.

First Runner-up Lock of the Week

Atlanta (-3) over CLEVELAND

Atlanta just keeps chugging along. They are the clearly better team here, and I don't see Cleveland putting up much of a fight. Atlanta takes this one easily on the road against a bad opponent who got lucky to escape against Cincinnati with a win last week.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints (-7) over ARIZONA

This line should be 13+. Arizona is just awful, fully pathetic. I know the Saints disappointed against Carolina last week, but they will come out and destroy the Cardinals. Only a touchdown? Child Please.

Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 33-25-4
Lock Picks: 4-7-1

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5 Power Rankings

The Elite

Still no one. There has not been a single team to separate themselves from the pack 4 games into the year. There seems to be a lot of parity this season, and thats the way the NFL wants it. Lots of teams in this years mix, because there is a lot of mediocrity. This is also why there have been so many underdogs covering spreads in the early going this season. But lets get on with the ranks.


The Contenders

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New York Jets
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. San Diego Chargers
8. Houston Texans
9. New Orleans Saints

I've cut the contenders by three this week. The Colts, Titans, Dolphins and Bears all put in performances this week that simply could not be considered contender worthy. The Colts and Titans lost close games to bad teams, and the Bears and Dolphins got blown out by mediocre teams. That means they all fall back to the middle of the pack.

The San Diego Chargers are the newest member to the group of contenders, and they got there with a performance that was purely dominant against Arizona. Arizona is terrible, but you can't deny a team that was so pristine on both sides of the ball a spot in the contenders ring. They rise up from number 15 all the way to number 7.

The Baltimore Ravens secure the top spot for this week after knocking off last week's top team. I love the Ravens and thought they were a top 3 team preseason, and I think they have shown a great balance that no other team has matched. They may be there for a while.

The Jets move into the number two spot after thrashing the Buffalo Bills. Wouldn't be that impressive, but they have done more than enough this season to prove they belong here. If Sanchez continues to develop, this may be a dynasty in the making.

The Mediocre

10. Indianapolis Colts
11. Chicago Bears
12. New England Patriots
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Denver Broncos
15. Dallas Cowboys
16. Minnesota Vikings
17. Washington Redskins
18. Miami Dolphins
19. New York Giants
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Cincinnati Bengals
22. St. Louis Rams
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
24. Seattle Seahawks
25. Cleveland Browns
26. Jacksonville Jaguars

Here is where I illustrate my earlier point about parity. Three teams fell into the realm of mediocrity while another three rose up from the dregs to join them. The Rams made the biggest jump, and they actually showed some serious fight against the Seahawks. They actually have two wins in four games, and I can honestly say I'm totally shocked. I DID NOT expect Sam Bradford to play anywhere near this level this fast. This is one team that could actually vastly outperform preseason expectations and it is all on Bradford. If he keeps this up, expect further climbs up this board. If he shows signs of being a rookie, they could be back in the Garbage in no time.

Also joining the Rams in the ascent to the middle are the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams that pulled off victories over higher ranked opponents. I expected the Browns, but I didn't see the Jags winning at all. Every powerhouse team is allowed to lay an egg once in a while, and the Colts sure did there. I don't trust the Jags at all, but any team that can beat the Colts has to make it out of Garbage-level.

The New England Patriots showed some serious life on Monday night... and then proceeded to trade away Randy Moss, their biggest weapon. How this plays out is yet to be seen but I can't think its a good thing. I still think they are a 9-7 mediocre team, even with their trouncing of Miami. The Moss trade kinda keeps them in limbo for me. The Dolphins, however, fall considerably out of the ranks of contenders all the way down to 18.

Washington has jumped five spots with a statement win over Philadelphia, further proving that the NFC East is a jumbled mess of mediocrity. I doubt any team in this division breaks from this group the rest of the season (the Cowboys have the best chance, and they were on a bye). I will say this, Ryan Torain impressed me. If they let this kid run the ball on a full time basis, and I believe they have to with Portis out, they could grind out a few more wins in this weak division and could surprise with a division win and a trip to the playoffs. I'm not counting on it, but they DO sit in first as we speak.


The Garbage

24. Carolina Panthers
25. San Francisco 49ers
28. Detroit Lions
29. Oakland Raiders
31. Arizona Cardinals
32. Buffalo Bills

All of these teams lost and remain Garbage to me. The Cardinals fall all the way down to the number 31 spot, and are going to move forward with undrafted rookie quarterback Max Hall. Larry Fitzgerald can NOT be pleased with this situation.

See you tomorrow morning with this weeks Picks!

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Week 4 Picks

My worst week of the season last week, with a .500 record. Lets try to get back on the right track in week 4.

Home team in CAPS

TENNESSEE (-7) over Denver

Tennessee is giving a touchdown at home coming off a big win over the Giants. They are a much better team than Denver, especially when Denver doesn't have their top running back (who also happens to be their best weapon on offense). I don't see them hanging with the Titans on the road.

Baltimore (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH

This goes against my better judgement, as Pittsburgh has played like the best team in football and have the homefield, but I am taking the underdog team that I think has the talent to put up a fight. It should be a close game either way, and I think the Ravens can win. I sure hope they can, or my Super Bowl pick is already looking very shaky.

CLEVELAND (+3) over Cincinnati

I can't take a mediocre team on the road giving three points. This has a classic upset game feel. I know the Browns are bad, but they g=have showed a little something in their three games and I think they get their first win in this one.

Detroit (+14.5) over GREEN BAY

I almost always pick Green Bay. But I just don't think they are more than two touchdowns better than the Detroit Lions. By no means do I think the Lions are going to pull this upset, but can they stay withing 14? I think so.

NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Carolina

This, however, is a game that I think could get ugly. With Jimmy Clausen at quarterback for Carolina, I think they have already admitted they are going nowhere this season. Expect lots of INTs and lots of points for the Saints in this one.

San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA

Lets see what happpens. I really have no clue what to do when it comes to the 49ers. So this week, I am going to pick them and see if they can keep it close in Atlanta. Maybe the new offensive Coordinator will make all the difference. Probably not...

Seattle (-1.5) over ST. LOUIS

Likely without Steven Jackson, the best player on the team,New and still only point and a half dogs? Kind of confused by the line. I know Seattle is awful on the road, but St. Louis is awful everywhere. I think Seattle wins this, even if it stays close, its an easy line to cover.

New York Jets (-6) over BUFFALO

The Bills showed something against the Patriots last week, but I think that was more about how awful the Patriot defense is, rather than anything positive about the Bills. Now they get to play a fantastic defense, and I doubt they can do anything to stop LT and Shonn Greene. Jets roll here.

Houston (-3.5) over OAKLAND

I don't like Oakland, and I do like Houston. I just think talent-wise, Houston should crush the Raiders. Why they are only giving three and a half is beyond me. Are the Raiders really that good at home? Their record hasn't shown it in the past few years.

SAN DIEGO (-9) over Arizona

This line is just about right. I'm going with San Diego because I think the likelihood of a blowout is much higher than the likelihood of an Arizona win. Phillip Rivers has a big game teeing off against an awful Arizona team that can't score any points.

PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) over Washington

Donovan McNabb returns to Philly for the first time and I don't see it going very well for him. This is the last game that I see Michael Vick having a stellar game, and then it could get ugly for him, but against a very mediocre Redskins team, the Eagles should win at home by at least a touchdown.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

MIAMI (+1.5) over New England

In the heat of Miami on a Monday night, New England is going to have the same problems they had against the Jets. The Dolphins don't present quite as strong a defense as New York, but the offense is even better. Chad Henne is in for a big game against the pitiful defense of the Patriots. Miami is just the better team at this point, and they give New England fits, especially when they are exhausted in the second half of this one.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE

I don't get this one AT ALL. Jacksonville is just a bad team, playing a borderline elite team in the Colts. I really expected this line to be about 13. How can I not take Peyton Manning in this one?

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Chicago (+3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I had to stare at this line for a couple of minutes. Not because the game was hard to pick, but because I thought there had to be a mistake. How are the 3-0 Bears, who just beat the Green Bay Packers, 3 and a half point dogs to the garbage New York Giants who just got obliterated by Tennessee? This is my Lock of the Week, and nothing else came close to taking that title.

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 26-18-4
Lock Picks: 4-4-1

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Week 4 Power Rankings

As promised, my NFL Power Rankings are here, for the first time this season. I'm still not sold completely on any of these rankings, but at least through 3 weeks of football, this is how I see the teams stacking up.

In case you missed it from last year, I will be separating the teams into 4 categories: The Elite, The Contenders, The Mediocre, and The Garbage (new name this year). The names should be pretty self explanatory, then their will be a few words on the teams in each category and why they are where they are, especially if a team was a significant mover from the previous week.


So here we go, the first Power Rankings of the year commences...

The Elite

No one.

That's right, going a little unprecedented here, but there have been no elite teams in the NFL this season. Had the Packers not used 18 penalties to beat themselves against the Bears, they would have made this list, but they totally derailed their Elite status in the Monday Nighter.

The Contenders

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Green Bay Packers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Tennessee Titans
6. New York Jets
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Chicago Bears
9. Houston Texans
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. Miami Dolphins
12. Kansas City Chiefs

Twelve teams make the cut as contenders for week 4, with Pittsburgh on top. They have simply outperformed everyone, with a difficult schedule, and without their starting quarterback. That, folks, is ridiculous. How have they done it? With a defense that is simply other-worldly. Like I have said before, Troy Polamalu might just be the MVP of this league.

The other two undefeated teams are also surprise contenders, the Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs. I think its safe to say that no one saw these teams opening the season 3-0, but they certainly have to be considered contenders now. Jay Cutler has looked really sharp in Mike Martz' offensive system, and could be a fantasy juggernaut for anyone who trusted him. And he might just lead this Bears team to a run at the Super Bowl. I'm not quite so high on the Chiefs, because I don't trust Matt Cassel as much, but they do have some serious weapons in Thomas Jones, Jamal Charles, and rookie Dexter McCluster. Add an improved defense and this team has to be considered a contender.

The rest of the teams are more or less the same teams I expected to contend for this year's title, so we'll get into them more as the weeks go on.

The Mediocre

13. Philadelphia Eagles
14. New England Patriots
15. San Diego Chargers
16. Cincinnati Bengals
17. Dallas Cowboys
18. Seattle Seahawks
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Denver Broncos
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22. Washington Redskins

There are a couple teams in this group that come as a shock to me. First, the Dallas Cowboys, who currently sit at 1-2. If they hadn't pulled off a huge, season-saving win over Houston, they wouldn't even make the mediocre list. They have played overwhelmingly poor considering their level of talent. Wade Phillips seat could not be hotter, and if they don't continue to gain steam in this weak division, he will be fired mid-season.

The San Diego Chargers have also failed to impress in the early going, and need to get a move on because, as I mentioned, KC are true contenders. It would help if their stud rookie Ryan Mathews could get healthy, or if they had Vincent Jackson. I am not terribly worried about this team, as the division still isn't terribly strong with the Raiders and Broncos in it, but they need to get it together, and fast.

The New England Patriots are nothing more than a mediocre football team at this point. Their offence is great, but their defense is worse than I thought. They gave up 30 points to Buffalo, the worst team in football! That is startlingly bad. I don't see how a team with their defense can compete with any team that has some decent talent, as they showed in their loss to the Jets. These are not the Patriots of their glory years. Those 3 Super Bowls are in the rear-view mirror, and I don't think they are coming back any time soon.

There are two teams that should be glad to achieve mediocre status, the Seahawks and Buccaneers. I thought both of these currently 2-1 teams would be horrible, but Seattle is in the driver seat in the NFC West (not that that is saying much) and Tampa Bay has shown some fight. Will be interesting to see if either can keep it up.

The Garbage

23. New York Giants
24. Arizona Cardinals
25. Oakland Raiders
26. Cleveland Browns
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Detroit Lions
29. San Francisco 49ers
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Carolina Panthers
32. Buffalo Bills

Many of these teams are no surprise. The Raiders, Browns, Rams, Lions and Bills have been cellar dwellers for a few years now. However, teams like the Giants, Cardinals and those damn Niners were certainly not expected.

I've been hailing the New York Giants as a mediocre team at best for two years now. But now? They are just plain Garbage. They have the single most over-rated defense in all of football. Eli Manning is not the superstar quarterback the New York media would have you believe. this team is very far removed from its Super Bowl victory of 2007.

Arizona has fallen so far this season it is staggering. Now, it was not difficult to see this coming, but by season's end they might be the league's worst team. Kurt Warner was just so valuable for this team, and losing one of the league's best receivers (Boldin) doesn't help either. The two losses they have already grabbed may be their last for some time.

And then their are the San Francisco 49ers. My mortal nemesis. I predicted this team to be horrible last season, and they played very well and surprised me, costing me money. This season? Of course I translated the impression they left on me last year into a leap forward this year and a division win. So what does San Francisco do? They come up and start 0-3 and look absolutely horrible. Alex Smith goes back to the old Alex Smith. Michael Crabtree, who looked like a star down the stretch last year, has been useless. The division is terrible, so they still have a good chance to bounce back, probably better than anyone else on this list because of the schedule, but it needs to happen soon. Are you listening Mike Singletary? Your seat is hotter than Wade Phillips'!

And then there's Buffalo... poor poor Buffalo. Andrew Luck anyone?

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Week 3 Picks

After this week, there will be a full set of Power Rankings. I promise. Between time constraints and the fact that two weeks can't tell us much anyway, they just can't be done before this Sunday. But starting next week there will be two columns a week, power rankings, along with the usual picks. Enjoy your week 3 picks for now!

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

Home team in CAPS

Tennessee (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I'm not terribly confident either way in this one, so I will take my team. The Giants got SMOKED last week by the Colts, and the Titans were shut down on offense by a surprisingly outstanding Pittsburgh defense (more on that later). It will be a very interesting game, to see if either of these teams are for real.

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Buffalo

Its a TON of points, but Tom Brady comes back huge after just about every bad game he has had in his career. Its like clockwork. I expect an offensive show out of the pats, through the air and on the ground. Green Bay covered 13 easily last week, I see the same for New England here. The Bills are in for a whipping boy season. Good luck getting Andrew Luck in the draft!

BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland

I just don't see how Cleveland moves the ball against the Baltimore defense. And this could definitely be the week that Joe Flacco puts it together for the first time this season. The Browns are very much like the Bills. They stink.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY

Pittsburgh's defense was other-worldly against Tennessee. Troy Polamalu might be the single most valuable player in the NFL. Not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees or Tom Brady, Troy Polamalu. He is the most important player on a defense that can shut you DOWN. Tampa has been impressive through two games, but they get their first big test of the season, and I think they fail, miserably.

CAROLINA (+3.5) over Cincinnati

This is a tough one for me. I think Cincinnati stinks, but Carolina has PROVEN that they do. I'm only taking them because they are getting points at home, and they need to win. I'm not confident at all.

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Atlanta

Boy, Atlanta sure looked good against Arizona last week. But lets face it, Arizona is awful. New Orleans is not. Drew Brees, at home, against Matt Ryan and a banged up Michael Turner. I have to take the favorite.

KANSAS CITY (+2.5) over San Francisco

I've really got no idea. San Francisco is my mortal gambling enemy. No matter what I say they will do, they do the opposite. So I will pick Kansas City here, in hopes that the Niners win, and help out my over/under season bet on them. But somehow I'm sure it will blow up in my face. I hate you San Francisco.

HOUSTON (-2.5) over Dallas

Houston is going to not only prove that it is the best team in Texas, it is also going to end Jerry Jones bid for a home Super Bowl, and end Wade Phillips tenure as head coach of the Cowboys. The Texans are tough to beat. And the NFC East, is pretty bad, which is a big surprise to just about everyone.

Washington (-4.5) over ST. LOUIS

Speaking of the bad NFC East, are the Redskins the best team in it? I can't bring myself to say they are. I just can't do it, not yet anyway. But they are definitely above the level of being a bad football team, so they really should handle the Rams pretty easily.

Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

I don't like this Michael Vick experiment in Philly, but I do think it will get them past Jacksonville. I just don't understand how Kevin Kolb goes from being the guy to being the other guy after one half of football and an injury. I think Vick has yet to show why he was never all that successful before he went to prison, but he will soon enough. I just don't think Jacksonville is good enough to be the team to expose him.

Indianapolis (-6) over DENVER

With no Moreno, that leaves Denver with Correll Buckhalter and Lawrence Maroney in the backfield. You beat the Colts by running the ball relentlessly on them. Denver has two bad running backs. This should be more than easy for the Colts. The only reason this line isn't above 7 is the Denver home field advantage, and although it is one of the better fields in the league, it won't be enough to stop the Colts.

SEATTLE (+4.5) over San Diego

Seattle is an entirely different team at home, as they showed in weeks one and two. I think San Diego is not quite as good as they used to be, and they are without starting running back Ryan Mathews. I think they get hit in the mouth here by a hungry Seattle team. Take the points.

New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI

Both teams are strong, but even without Revis the Jets will be very good at stopping Miami (a primarily ground attack team). I just don't see any team that can start running away with this division, and its just one of those classic upset type games. The Jets may be down an elite corner, and their number one receiver, but I just think they win this game. Call it a gut feeling, just like I had with them last week, and that worked out very well.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Oakland (+4.5)
over ARIZONA

I don't get it. Don't get it one bit. What has Arizona done to show anyone that they have even a shred of hope this season? I am shocked by this line. I'd have the Raiders favored by 4.5 if I were setting the line. Getting points is a gift.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO

The Packers are not the Dallas Cowboys. Get ready for a rude awakening Chicago, you are not as good as you have played so far. I expect a rough day for Jay Cutler and his Bears. Packers shine in this Monday night contest between the sport's oldest rivals.

Lock of the Week

Detroit (+12) over MINNESOTA

Has Vegas not watched the first two weeks? These are two teams they have been way too slow to adjust their lines on. The Lions have proven they can cover a spread, and I'm riding that train. Brett Favre has shown that he is old, out of practice, and missing his number one weapon. I'll DEFINITELY take the 12 points.

Last Week: 10-5-1
Season: 18-10-4
Lock Picks: 3-2-1