The Fantasy Football Levels of Losing

Anyone can say "I would have won 'if'" at the end of their given season. Sure, anyone can say that if they had done this, if they had done that, if something went my way then i would have won. But there is a different kind of stomach-punch type loss that happened this season for me. Not once, not twice, but in three separate leagues. There's losing, and then there's LOSING. This is my story.

League 1

This team started the season 0-4, so really, my team hadn't played a meaningless game since WEEK 4. Starting in Week 5, I won by .2 points, a win that I needed to make the playoffs. I survived by the skin of my teeth, my team did everything it needed to do, I spent my season agonizing over every move that would put me in position to make the playoffs and go on a run, and I finished the season with more points than anyone in the league. It came down to the last possible week for me to even make it in, as I finished off a win or go home game for both teams with a convincing victory that vaulted me to the 3 seed. The talent was there, better than everyone in the league outside MAYBE the one seed, but I did outscore him. And then, after all of that, My All-Pro, capable of scoring 40 any given week, dominating, first round pick, MVP candidate quarterback gets hurt and I am bounced, just like that. Aaron Rodgers had dragged this team kicking and screaming past every possible foe, and then, it was over. Just... like... that. I hung on ever second of every game for this team every Sunday, and I had such faith that this team was talented enough to win this league. Then that happened. It hurt. It hurt a lot more than a team that just goes 4-9 and misses the playoffs. This team had it and lost because of a stupid injury. It only makes it worse that I outscored both teams in the Semi's while I was stuck in the 5th place game, then outscored both teams in the finals while I didn't have a match. I win that one game, and this team wins. That's a stomach punch of epic proportions.


League 2

Now I wouldn't be doing this if that was even close to my only fantasy crushing loss this season. I was knocked out in the Playoffs of another league in which I had a 40 point lead, which I watched turn into a 30 point deficit, in horror, along with every Giants fan, as Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin single handedly ended my season with the greatest 8 minutes in fantasy history, costing me another money league finals trip. Nothing like a 70 point swing in 8 football minutes right?


League 3

But all of that pales in comparison to what happened to me Friday morning. Remember that Rashard Mendenhall stat correction? You know how you hear those nightmare stories of how something like that could cost someone a win? Well, bingo. Had won the matchup, was in the finals, the match had already started on Thursday night! I wake up Friday morning, sure enough, I have had 1.1 points removed (bonus 1 point at 100 yards, the yard was removed to drop his total from 100 to 99) and I saw myself in the third place game. After my championship match had already started. How's that for a "just my luck" situation.

Oh yeah, I would have won the Championship matchup.

So, please excuse me for hating fantasy football right now. I had four excellent teams this year, and three of them met their ends under extreme, gut-wrenching circumstances. I know I care too much about this, its way more than about money, its way more about how attached I get to building these teams from long before the draft until the final day of the season. I just hate losing three great teams under these circumstances. I don't even care if anyone reads this, I did it for me.

Week 16 Picks

BUFFALO (+7.5) over New England

CHICAGO (-1) over New York Jets

Tennessee (+5) over KANSAS CITY

Washington (+7) over JACKSONVILLE

San Diego (-7.5) over CINCINNATI

DENVER (+2.5) over Houston

OAKLAND (+3) over Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Seattle

Minnesota (+14.5) over PHILADELPHIA

New Orleans (+2.5) over ATLANTA

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week
Detroit (+3.5) over MIAMI

First Runner Up Lock of the Week
ST. LOUIS (-2.5) over San Francisco

LOCK OF THE WEEK
Baltimore (-3.5) over CLEVELAND

Thursday Night Pick

I like Carolina (+14) over PITTSBURGH

Week 15 Picks

Last week sucked, a ghastly 6-10. I really need a strong week to rebound this week. Let's see if I can go 11-5 or better.

Home team in CAPS
Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Kansas City

St. Louis is good at home and Matt Cassel might not play. I'll take the favorite.

Jacksonville (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Why can't the Jags win this game? They won last time these two met, they are going to have the "nobody believes in us" fire, and the Colts are still banged up. The Jags will keep this very close.

Arizona (+2.5) over CAROLINA

Arizona whooped a slightly better team last week. And how can anyone pick the Panthers? How can they be favored? I'm sorry but Jimmy Clausen is just not an NFL quarterback.

Buffalo (+5) over MIAMI

I don't think Miami is 5 points better than the Bills at this stage. That's all there is to it.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia

I think the Giants have something to prove in a revenge game here. The defense should be able to put up a strong fight and win the game.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over Detroit

Tampa Bay is a team that knows how to beat bad teams, and while this should be fairly close, I think they can win by 6 or 7.

BALTIMORE (-2) over New Orleans

This is a game where I think the home field really matters. If it were being played in New Orleans, they would be favored and I would take them. But Baltimore at home in cold weather should show that they can beat anyone in the league.

Atlanta (-6.5) over SEATTLE

As an elite team, the Falcons need to blow out teams like the Seahawks. I'm a strong believer in this team, so I have to roll with them.

New York Jets (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH

This Jets team will be desperate for a win and there is no Troy Polamalu. I think that is enough for them to at the very least keep it within a field goal.

OAKLAND (-7.5) over Denver

Tim Tebow is not ready to lead an NFL team to a win, at least that's my opinion. And Denver was simply awful last week. I don't see how they get much better against a better Oakland team on the road.

Green Bay (+14) over NEW ENGLAND

I don't think there is a chance for Green Bay to win the game, but 2 touchdowns is a lot of points to lay to anyone. I just don't think the Pats are two TDs better than the Pack, even with Matt Flynn at QB.

Chicago (-8) over MINNESOTA

This one is all about the QB situation for Minnesota. Who is Joe Webb, where did he come from, and how is he going to have a prayer of keeping his team competitive against a good Bears team looking to bounce back from a beatdown? I can't see it.

Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

Cleveland (PK) over CINCINNATI

Picking against the Bengals has been good all year, roll with it.

First Runner Up Lock of the Week

DALLAS (-9) over Washington

Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Houston (+1.5) over TENNESSEE

There is NO reason that the Titans should be favored here. They really can not play without Vince Young. The losing streak continues, and Jeff Fisher starts getting his resume ready.

Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 108-94-6
Lock Picks: 21-19

Back to business... Week 14 Picks

I hope you all enjoyed my little article on the Carl Crawford deal. But now, its back to football. Stupid Titans and their last play, last second, COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS touchdown cost me a betting win last night. They couldn't depress me more right now. Anyway, rant over, on with the picks.

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of sportsbetting.com

JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Oakland

Every gambling stat points to the Jaguars in this one. Oakland is on the road, traveling cross country to play a 1:00 game. Plus, Jacksonville is just better at this point.

Cincinnati (+9) over PITTSBURGH

I never pick the Bengals, but this one could easily be a trap game for the Steelers, plus it should be low scoring and at least close. 9 points is way too high.

CHICAGO (+3) over New England

The Pats did put an other-worldly beat down on the Jets on Monday, but this is a hangover game, on a short week, in below 0 weather. I think the home team has a distinct advantage here.

Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO

This game is going to be the Peyton Hillis show all day long, and that should mean the Browns will win.

MINNESOTA (+3) over New York Giants

I liked the way the Vikings looked last week, but I really have no idea what will happen in this game. So I'll bet against Eli Manning.

Green Bay (-7) over DETROIT

The Lions have hit a bit of a stumbling block in their cover streak, and the Packers are going to be focused and desperate. Should be a breeze for Aaron Rodgers.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City

Desperation game for San Diego, and that doesn't bode well for the less talented Chiefs.

NEW ORLEANS (-10) over St. Louis

I like the Saints here because I think most people will take the points, but I think the Rams are awful on the road, and the Superdome will have Sam Bradford extremely rattled.

Seattle (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Two awful teams so I will take the points

NEW YORK JETS (-5) over Miami

The Jets simply MUST bounce back and win this game. I don't see any way they blow it, unless they are truly just a mediocre football team. I don't think they are, but we will find out on Sunday.

DALLAS (+3.5) over Philadelphia

the Cowboys have to be taken seriously since Garett took over the team. I think they can win this one.

Baltimore (-2.5) over HOUSTON

Because Baltimore is a vastly better team than Houston, and the game just shouldn't be close.


Second Runner-Up Lock of the Week

Atlanta (-9) over CAROLINA

Because whenever the best team in the league is playing the worst team in the league, you have to take the best team in the league, no matter how many points they are giving.



First Runner-Up Lock of the Week

Denver (-4.5) over ARIZONA

Wait, you mean John Skelton is the Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback? Say no more!


LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay (-2) over WASHINGTON

LaGarett Blount is going to take this game by storm, and the Bucs should have no issues dismantling the awful Redskins, who seem to have quit on their season.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 102-84-6
Lock Picks: 20-17

Its a Very Merry Christmas in Red Sox Nation

I'm taking time off from my usual football only column, and switching over to baseball, just for a moment. You see, I am a huge Red Sox fan, and this has been the best off-season of my short life. Very rarely do things go exactly how you want for your favorite teams. Just look at how the Titans have completely collapsed in what was a once promising season. So for this week, I am focusing my efforts on Carl Crawford, the player I have been wishing for all off-season, to end up in a Sox uniform. Because as of last night, he is officially being delivered, first class, to Boston.

Let me start by briefly discussing Boston's other tremendous acquisition, Adrian Gonzalez. I loved the move, obviously, to acquire Gonzalez and make him the first baseman of the present and future in Boston. He is a supreme talent, a true power threat, who will likely hit 45 home runs playing his home games in Fenway Park. Theo Epstein gave up a hell of a package of prospects to get him, but he will be worth it. However, it simply wouldn't have been enough to go into the 2011 season with Adrian as the team's only big addition. They needed to sign Crawford. I've been doing nothing but researching, debating, and preparing for the rest of this hot stove season, and it all came back to one thing: the Red Sox need to sign Carl Crawford, and sign him now.

Last night, I was given my Christmas gift (and well, so was Crawford, a gift of $142 million). I really couldn't be happier or more excited that the Sox front office made what I consider to be the perfect move for the future of the organization. Why is signing Crawford so great you ask? Isn't it a little crazy to pay a player who isn't a power bat $20 million a season? And what about the Sox getting a little too left-handed for their own good? None of these things concern me, and I'll tell you why.

The Red Sox had very few holes in their lineup prior to the signing of Crawford. The fact that they let Victor Martinez walk to the Detroit Tigers tells us that they were okay with having a lesser offensive catcher in the young Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I'll readily admit that I was upset by this, as they had a potent bat in a position where most people do not, but Theo is enamored with this kid, and I'd like to see what he can do. Obviously they had their reasons not to give Victor the money he was looking for.

So that is hole number one, but its also a hole for just about every team in the league, which makes it less of a big deal. Now certainly, the bullpen needs work, and that will come later, for a lot cheaper dollars and on a one or two year basis. Middle relief isn't something teams generally shell out big bucks for, and I don't expect the Red Sox to start now. So really, the Sox had one and only one spot remaining in their lineup that you could argue that there was an opening, and a legitimate need, for a dramatic improvement in talent: left field. The exact position of the best free agent position player on the market, Carl Crawford. What are the Red Sox to do in this scenario? Who is the best option for the Red Sox at the left field position? Let's break down their options:

Option A) Roll with what you already have. Mike Cameron, the 38 year old outfielder who was never healthy last year and should be a fourth outfielder at best. Or young, budding outfielder Ryan Kalish, who could certainly benefit from another year in AAA, and would only be a short term solution because in all likelihood, he is the right fielder on this team once J.D. Drew's contract runs out after this year.

Option B) Sign a lesser free agent outfielder. Who was out there if you decide you don't want to extend a huge contract for this season? Couldn't be Jayson Werth, the Nationals already snatched him up with a ridiculous 7 year, 126 million dollar deal. Magglio Ordonez was talked about. He will be 37 next year, is coming off a year in which he managed to hit 12 home runs and drive in 59 runs. He has been in decline for a few years now, and has health problems. How much better is he than Cameron? what about old friend-turned-enemy Johnny Damon? Well he is 36, and already turned down a trade to go back to Boston last year. I just don't see how bringing him back in makes the team any better. And guess what? These are the best names on the outfield market in the winter of 2010!

Option C) Why not make a trade for an outfielder? Well there were a couple names talked about in potential trades, but of course, that would mean giving up assets. Carlos Beltran's name was out there, but at $18 million, and coming off two injury riddled seasons, how much more of a risk could there be? I was a little more open to the option of Josh Willingham from Washington, but he is also going to be 32 and a free agent next year, so you'd likely be giving up prospects for a one year rental, and I'm never a fan of that.

Option D) Couldn't you just wait til next year and try and find a left fielder in next year's class? Let's take a look at what our options would have been had the Sox taken this course of action:

Bobby Abreu LAA *
Jose Bautista TOR
Carlos Beltran NYM
Milton Bradley SEA
Mike Cameron BOS
Ronny Cedeno PIT
Ryan Church PIT
Jack Cust OAK
David DeJesus KC
Matt Diaz ATL
J.D. Drew BOS
Jeff Francoeur TEX
Jonny Gomes CIN
Gabe Gross OAK
Carlos Guillen DET
Corey Hart MIL
Raul Ibanez PHI
Conor Jackson ARZ
Ryan Ludwick SD
Nate McLouth ATL *
Juan Pierre CWS
Juan Rivera LAA
Cody Ross SF
Grady Sizemore CLE *
Nick Swisher NYY *
Josh Willingham WAS

On this list include both Beltran and Willingham, like I mentioned before, more rental than long term fix. Any player with an asterisk by their name means that the player's team holds an option on them, so that potentially eliminates Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore and Nick Swisher, 3 of the very few names that have any value at all on this list. So what are we left with? A group of "also rans" and fourth outfielders, and one guy who could be a stud, or a dud this season, named Corey Hart. But if Hart repeats his numbers from last season, someone would be throwing a $100+ million dollar deal at him next year, as by far the best outfielder on the market. Is this really a smart option for the Red Sox? Who would you rather have at $100+ million, Corey Hart or Carl Crawford?

No. Of course its not smart. The only smart move the Red Sox could make would be...

Option E) Sign Carl Crawford, the best free agent position player available, who happens to play the exact position of your biggest need.

And that is precisely what the Red Sox did. They filled a gigantic hole, and they fill it for the next 7 years. Getting back to the question of money. Is $142 million excessive for a player like Crawford, whose career high in home runs is 19? No, its really not. Its what the market has dictated, especially following the Werth deal. Crawford is a better player, so he had to get at least the same length, and more money. If the Red Sox wanted the player, they had to pony up the money, and they needed to make the move now, before the Yankees got more involved than they already were. As I laid out, your future options at the position just aren't there. So if the Red Sox had to go out and overpay to fill a need, they could afford to do so, and that is exactly why I love the deal so much, because they can make this signing, and still remain within a budget very similar to the 168 million dollars they paid out in 2010, which is precisely why all the Yankee fans out there that are making comments of "Congratulations on becoming exactly what you always said you hated" are way off base. Let me break it down for you:

Coming off the books in 2010:
Mike Lowell- $12.5 million
Adrian Beltre- $8 million
Victor Martinez- $7.7 million
Julio Lugo- $9 million

Just that alone accounts for a 37.2 million dollar clearing of salary. Now of course, these are not the only salaries changing. John Lackey's contract is front loaded, and will make 3 million less than last year. Several players have escalating salaries, like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis, adding a couple million here and there, plus arbitration eligible raises. I'll save you all of the gory details and tell you this: the final tally when all is said and done, including Beckett and Varitek's new contracts, Ortiz' option, the numerous smaller contracts that are no longer on the team, and the 6 million owed to Adrian Gonzalez this year, turns out to be nearly 30 million dollars coming off the books this season. That's more than enough to sign Crawford for 20 million, and even have 10 million left over to fill out the 40-man roster and sign a couple of relief pitchers! Even if they manage to jump up a couple extra million filling out the roster, its highly unlikely that they will break the $175 million threshold. Whereas if the Yankees make a huge signing with Cliff Lee, and they are expected to, that combined with the return of Andy Petitte and filling out their roster will give them a minimum of 220 million dollar budget, a good 45-50 million dollars more than that of the Red Sox. This is where the two teams differ. The Red Sox run their books as smart businessmen, knowing when they have money to spend and how to stay within budget. The Yankees run their business as a group with bottomless pockets, handing out ridiculous and borderline irresponsible contracts at any cost to win the World Series right now, future be damned. Which is why the Red Sox will never spend on the level of the Yankees, and why the Yankees budget will always continue to rise every year that they are in existence. They will never be on equal footing.

Now of course, Adrian Gonzalez is not going to be a 6 million dollar player for long. He is probably going to get a massive contract, lets say about $22 million/year after the season opens (as the Red Sox are smart, they will not announce the contract until after opening day, and will not have to factor in the contract extension to this year's luxury tax.) So this number would put the Red Sox way over their 2010 number of $168 million right? No, of course not. The Red Sox have even more money coming off the books next season. Here's a look at the contracts coming off the books at the end of 2011:

J.D. Drew- $14 million
David Ortiz- $12.5 million
Jonathan Papelbon- $10+ million
Mike Cameron- $7.75 million
Marco Scutaro- $4 million

That's $48 million, a truly staggering number. Factoring in the 16 million dollar raise that Gonzalez is likely to get, you are still left with 32 million dollars to play with. And here's the key: three of the players that you are losing here, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon and Marco Scutaro, are being replaced by players from the Red Sox own minor league system, at very cheap dollars. Probably a total of $4-6 million combined, in Daniel Bard, Ryan Kalish and Jose Iglesias. So you are looking at 26-28 million additional dollars to fill out a roster, find a right handed DH and a new 4th outfielder, along with whats likely to be another bullpen arm or two. Sound reasonable? I thought so too.

So really, the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez merely come at the perfect time for this organization. Epstein was killed when he called 2010 a "bridge year," but that is precisely what it was. A bridge to 2011 and beyond. To a time where the Red Sox have enough money coming off their books where they can spend 42 million dollars combined per year on their new acquisitions, and still somehow manage to lighten the payroll in the process. Or at worst, keep it the same.

The Red Sox know how valuable Crawford will be to their team in the next seven years. Manager Terry Francona has already called him a "game-changer." He is a true superstar, and they just don't come around that often. The Red Sox managed to get two of them this off season, which obviously leads to the Yankee comparisons, and so be it. But its funny to think that come 2012, the Red Sox will have a lineup with a very home grown feel:

C Jarrod Slatalamacchia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Jose Iglesias
3B Kevin Youkilis
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Ryan Kalish
LF Carl Crawford
DH ?

How many of these players did the Red Sox "buy" in their quest for the World Series? One: Carl Crawford. The rest either came up through the Red Sox system, or were acquired in a trade for prospects of their system. Not to mention the likes of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, or Daniel Bard, the three most important pitchers on this team. No, this lineup hasn't been bought, its been developed and planned, with the utmost detail and craftsmanship of a brilliant general manager. Carl Crawford just happened to be the perfect piece to acquire at the perfect time, to add to a team of players that are a testament to the development of the Red Sox farm system. Sometimes, you have to strike while you still can, the Yankees do this every year, sometime multiple times a year. The Red Sox waited patiently, and now it was their time. Carl Crawford was their answer. And it is a very merry Christmas indeed, for Red Sox nation. April can't get here soon enough.

Thursday Night Pick

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
The Titans are a mess and Indy should bounce back strong in this game.

Week 13 Picks

Home team in CAPS

Lines courtesy of Yahoo.com

DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago

San Francisco (+9.5) over GREEN BAY

Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE

KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Denver

Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO

Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

St. Louis (-3) over ARIZONA

Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY

BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS


Second Runner Up Lock of the Week

SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina


First Runner Up Lock of the Week

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI


LOCK OF THE WEEK

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI


Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 92-78-6
Lock Picks: 18-16-2

Thursday Night Pick

PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Houston

Houston's defense is just terrible enough to allow me to lay the points here.