Wednesday, September 30, 2009

NFL Weekend in review: The Day Late Edition

Went to the Big E, a massive fair in West Springfield, MA, yesterday, and ate til I felt sick, so the weekend NFL review is coming a day late this week. Here we go:

Packers/Rams: The Packers bounced back after their defeat to a not-so-terrible Bengals team against an absolutely terrible Rams team. When will the Rams win a game? That is tough to tell. They don't look like they can beat anyone right now and the Redskins might have been their best shot. They will be in the running for last team to win a game, if they win one at all. Marc Bulger was injured during the game, which may end up helping the team, but how much faith can you put in Kyle Boller?

Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson carried 27 times for 117 yards but didn't get into the end zone. He is going to remain the only option on the Rams you feel comfortable starting, if only because he is the only guy getting touches (also added 5 receptions for 46 yards). Aaron Rodgers had a predictably great day for Green Bay. Donald Driver led the targets for the Packers, but Greg Jennings had two 50 yard catches from his 3 targets and led the team in receiving yards. No real guys to go pick up here.

Vikings/49ers: Brett Favre's terrific final play stole the show here, and I'm sure you have all seen it by now. However, he wasn't all that efficient on the day, completing just 52% of his passes. Big news for San Fransisco is that Frank Gore will miss some time with an ankle injury. This really hurts San Fran, as they basically designed their entire offense around Gore. I said that St. Louis would struggle to win a game, but they match up against San Fransisco next week and maybe they can squeak one out against a team that lacks its best offensive weapon. Overall take on this game: both of these teams are entirely average. The Vikings will have a lot to prove against Green Bay on Monday night this week.

Fantasy Impact: Obviously the loss of Gore will hurt a lot of teams, but hopefully some of them handcuffed the back with Glen Coffee. If he is still available in your league, he should be your number one target to add this week. Vernon Davis had a breakout game for the 49ers. Maybe he has a breakout season and they finally get the guy they drafted. Wouldn't be great for me, as this is the first year I completely avoided him.

Falcons/Patriots: The Patriots prove that rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Never bet against the Pats after a loss. They always bounce back strong. The difference between this game and the other two was that they actually ran the ball effectively. Fred Taylor had 105 of the Patriots 162 yards and had more than half the carries. He was by far the most effective bac, the only one with a touchdown as well. The other thing that stood out was the Patriots defense. Only allowing 10 points to that Falcons offense is impressive. It seems a lot of people are underestimating this unit, myself included.

Fantasy Impact: Michael Turner was limited to 56 yards but he did get the ball in for a touchdown. Randy Moss seemed fine with his injury, racking up 116 yards on 10 catches. Matt Ryan tried to spread the ball around but New England's defense was very effective in stopping him, and he ended with only 199 yards. Fred Taylor certainly looked like the number one guy on the ground for New England, but can you really trust him enough to start him? I don't think you can just yet.

Titans/Jets: This one really stings the Titans. Everyone knows how hard it is to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. They have lost their three games by a combined 13 points. They could easily be 3-0 but things just haven't gone their way. They lost this game to the Jets because of two fumbled kick returns by rookie Ryan Mouton. I don't like to bash young players but really that was the reason they lost the game. Both led to scores by the Jets and the Titans outplayed them pretty thoroughly for the majority of the game. Turnovers can kill a football team and they certainly did here. I'm not trying to discredit the Jets, because they look like serious contenders and I've very impressed by them, but the Titans looked better than them in this game, except for those two fumbles. The Jets were held to just 223 yards of total offense, but because they were handed such short field position, it didn't matter. I don't think the Titans are done yet, but hey better start pulling out these close games immediately, starting with Jacksonville this week.

Fantasy Impact: Lendale White finally got into the end zone and I still think he will be the goal line back, the Titans just haven't gotten too many opportunities inside the 10 yard line. Most of their scores have been on longer plays with the explosiveness of Chris Johnson. Leon Washington continues to have just about a 50/50 split in carries with Thomas Jones. Very nice game from Jerricho Cotchery as he dominated the targets for the Jets. Justin Gage continues to be Kerry Collins' favorite target.

Chiefs/Eagles: Kevin Kolb had an outstanding game! Which means just about anyone can have an outstanding game against the Chiefs. I'm trying to find anything to like about this Chiefs team, but I can't. They are just really bad. 196 yards of total offense while giving up 420 isn't going to win you any football games. The Eagles are really good on both sides of the ball, but they didn't have McNabb or Westbrook, so this wasn't even the best Eagles team and they still got crushed. Its going to be a long year in KC.

Fantasy Impact: Is Larry Johnson droppable at this point? I think that he is. The man's better years are obviously behind him. He is getting carries but not doing anything with them. How long before Jamaal Charles starts poaching? He has been far more efficient. I think you might be wise to go grab Charles before everyone else realizes that he will be starting by the end of the season, especially in deeper leagues. If you are unhappy with your tight end, Brent Celek may be available and he has been outstanding lately.

Giants/Buccaneers: I'm not spending much time here. Beating a team as bad as Tampa Bay doesn't offer any insight to the Giants. Anyone can dominate the Bucs. The Giants controlled the clock and moved the ball against the Bucs pitiful run defense. It really shows nothing other than that the Giants beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Expect them to win again against the awful Chiefs this week. What a soft schedule they have had so far.

Fantasy Impact: If you own Buccaneers, run, run fast, run far far away. They are not going to score many points this season. They are a fantasy black hole. Ahmad Bradshaw was very efficient for the Giants.

Ravens/Browns: Another case of a really bad team. The Browns are at the bottom of the barrell. Worse than the Chiefs, worse than Tampa Bay, even worse than the Rams. This team is abysmal. They are this year's Lions. They have already pulled their quarterback, not like it will help them any. The Ravens are also very good, that didn't help them much. Look for the Browns to be terrible and the Ravens to be good, what else can anyone really say?

Fantasy Impact: Willis McGahee continued to kill me, rushing for 2 more touchdowns. Derek Mason had his first nice game of the season and I expect more. The add here is James Harrison, who got 16 carries to James Davis' 5 in place of injured Jamal Lewis. He got 52 yards against that Ravens defense.

Jaguars/Texans: This is a game that I really wish that I actually got to see. I don't know how it happened. Jacksonville should not have won this game on paper. It shouldn't have even been close. It was my lock of the week. I guess it can just be said that Houston has no answer to a strong running game. This is three games now that they have been torched on the ground. MJD had an amazing game, scoring 3 touchdowns. Conversely, Jacksonville had a hard time stopping Houston through the air, but they did just enough for the win. Houston had one more turnover and more penalties, which may have been the difference. Overall, it seems like neither of these teams will compete in the post season because of their weakness on defense.

Fantasy Impact: MJD took off, Slaton had an ok gamewith over 100 yards of offense but no touchdown. Kevin Walter was very good in his return from injury, which meant Jacoby Jones took a back seat. Mike Sims-Walker led the Jaguars in targets, receptions and receiving yards. I hope you added him when I told you too.

Redskins/Lions: Well what do you know, those Lions aren't so bad afterall! Ok, so maybe they still are, Washington is just worse. However, this Lions team really can move the ball. They are weak on defense, but they can put up points. Hopefully for them Kevin Smith isn't too badly injured. They will need him if they want to win a few more this year.

Fantasy Impact: I wouldn't be too happy to be a Clinton Portis owner right now. He looks very old this season, like his legs just aren't under him. When you see that your star player is up against the Lions defense, you think that should mean a lot of points. Well Portis was limited to just 42 yards. All the offense from Washington came from Santana Moss, who tends to be very all or nothing. He was certainly all in this game. Very good time to sell him. Bryant got more yards, catches and targets than the much more beloved Johnson, Calvin, which may be a problem if it turns out that the rookie Matthew Stafford leans on him more throughout the season.

Bears/Seahawks: The Seahawks should have won this game. They had it in their hands and they let it slip away. Two key missed field goals by Olindo Mare crushed them. I still think this is a good Seahawks team, and they proved it by almost beating Chicago without their starting quarterback. Jay Cutler does seem to be finding a bit of a rhythm in Chicago, and this Bears team should still be the second best team in the NFC North.

Fantasy Impact: I am still preaching patience on the Matt Forte front. He hasn't had a great game on the ground, but what I really liked seeing from this game was his 6 receptions for 40 yards. That is a huge part of his game and his fantasy value. He needs Cutler to find him out of the backfield, and that was very good to see them hook up 6 times. It still looks like Cutler won't favor any receiver and is looking to spread the wealth amongst all of them. Nate Burleson has been terrific
for Seattle, putting up another big game with 109 yards. Julius Jones has completely defied me and anyone else who thought he couldn't carry the full load, as he has been very effective. I'm fully on board with buying him if you can get him.

Saints/Bills: Well well well, the Saints can play defense after all. This is very, very bad news for the rest of the NFL. They are the best team in the league right now. They proved that even when Drew Brees has an off day they can score and win. They thoroughly dominated the Bills who had a very strong offensive game in weeks 1 and 2. It will be very hard to beat this team and until someone does, they will remain atop my power rankings.

Fantasy Impact: Welcome to the 2009 season Pierre Thomas! The expert darling made his presence felt after returning from his injury and with Mike Bell out with his own. Thomas put up 126 yards on only 14 carries, including 2 touchdowns. this is the guy his owners have been waiting for. Fred Jackson's value is going to take a hit next week with the return of Marshawn Lynch, but his owners knew that already. It should be about a 50/50 split to start, but if either struggles, look for that to swing.

Bengals/Steelers: As I eluded to earlier, the Bengals may not be as bad as everyone thinks. They are a crazy fluke play away from being 3-0 (against a currently 3-0 team) and they have beaten two very good teams in the Packers and Steelers. However, the rest of the way will not be easy for them. they are going to stop being looked past on the schedule and they will start getting a real shot from teams. That will happen when you knock off the defending champs. Speaking of the Steelers, I still think they will be fine. They were a Jeff Reed missed field goal away here and I wouldn't be too worried about them. They need to get Polamalu back as soon as possible, but that defense is still great and they will be fine.

Fantasy impact: I hate Cedric Benson. I just have to say it every week that he puts up good numbers. 76 and a touchdown against the Steelers? In past years he'd have gone for 11 yards total and 2 lost fumbles. What has gotten into this guy I will never be able to find out. I still say sell high. I was right on people overvaluing Chris Henry's sleeper value this year though. He has a whopping 3 receptions for 42 yards and one touchdown. Receiver Mike Wallace had 102 yards for the Steelers, but I wouldn't rush out and get him. There are better options.

Chargers/Dolphins: This was a boring predictable game. The Dolphins lost Chad Pennington for the year, but they weren't going anywhere with him anywhere. They traded for Tyler Thigpen which I think is a slight upgrade, but still, the Dolphins were a fluke last year and don't have it this year. The Chargers weren't very impressive, but they won nonetheless. I still don't know what to make of them.

Fantasy Impact: Ted Ginn Jr had 6 targets of which he converted none into a catch. That isn't good people. He is terrible. The Miami passing game is just bad and don't expect any real difference when Thigpen shows up. They are a run first team, and use both Brown and Williams, Ricky getting the lone touchdown in this one. I wouldn't want anyone from that offense. Big game from Vincent Jackson. He is becoming a top tier receiver before our eyes.

Broncos/Raiders: Wake me when the Broncos play a real team. I can't give them any credit for that 3-0 record. The only decent team they beat, they did it on a miracle catch. The Raiders stink. The defense looks strong, which is surprising, but that could just be the Raiders ineptitude.

Fantasy impact: Great job of running the ball from Buckhalter and Moreno. This is going to be a running team and both of these guys should have value going forward. I think Moreno is certainly the more valuable of the two, even though he had less yards on 7 fewer carries. He is the number 1 in that backfield, but like I said, Buckhalter will certainly get his carries. Kyle Orton is never going to throw for huge numbers. He doesn't have to in this offense, nor is he really capable of it.

Colts/Cardinals: I couldn't figure out why the Colts were underdogs in this one. They are a far better team than the Cardinals at this point, and this game really showed it. The Colts showed no hangover from the Monday night game and Peyton Manning is making a strong MVP case so far this season. He has been outstanding, as has his go to receiver Reggie Wayne. The Cardinals really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against this Colts defense. Really the game was never in doubt. I didn't think the Colts would be this good, with a new coach and no Marvin Harrison they seemed like a team in transition. Clearly, they have proven to be just as dangerous as ever.

Fantasy impact: Reggie Wayne could prove to be the league's best receiver without Marvin Harrison on the other side of the field. Pierre Garcon is stepping in as a great number 2 option for Manning as well. For the Cardinals, it looks like Steve Breaston is getting just as many looks as Fitzgerald and Boldin, which decreases the value of both of them. I'd try and find a trading partner if I were you.

Panthers/Cowboys: The Panthers looked impressive in the first half and seemed like maybe they had a chance in this one. Then they looked a lot like the Panthers in the second half. Dallas ran all over them with their third string back, Tashard Choice, after Felix Jones left with an injury. They are in big trouble. Dallas on the other hand looks like they can be a playoff team. They just can't let Tono Romo kill them. He is not one of the great quarterbacks in this league, but he doesn't have to be. This team can really run the ball and stop the run on defense, giving up only 74 to Carolina's duo of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That defense is dangerous and should keep them in a lot of games. They need to play ball control and hope that the injuries to Barber and Jones aren't really serious, even though Choice looked great. The depth will be needed in case Choice goes down himself, that trio is the key to Dallas' success this season.

Fantasy impact: Pretty much just the Dallas running game here. If Tashard Choice is available, go out and get him now. Felix Jones also looked great before he got hurt, and Barber's injury shouldn't be that serious since and he may be back next week. whoever is running the ball for Dallas is going to be effective and have fantasy value. All three should be owned in your league.

That will do it for me. I will also have new power rankings up later today so look for that, and new weekly picks up tomorrow so look for that. Until next time, sorry Browns fans, there's always next year.

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