Tuesday, October 20, 2009

In this case, I LOVE to say I told you so

Ladies and gentlemen, the moment finally came. After 5 weeks of playing nothing but cupcakes, we saw just how dangerous the New York Giants are. The answer: not very. Every sports analyst out there seems to be shocked and appalled by the Giants lack of defense against the Saints and the fact that this game was just a complete blow out dismantling of everything Giants. Not this guy. I have been saying it all year, this Giants team has done nothing to show me that they are anything special. They have played 5 teams that rank between below average to god-awful. Now they came up against the team that I have said is the best team in football since I initially did my power rankings in week 2, and got stomped into the ground. The game wasn't even as close as the 3 touchdown lead would indicate. Drew Brees threw for 4 touchdowns, and they ran for an additional 3. How good is that Giants defense? I say not very. I can't see them winning more than nine games this season. Maybe ten if they get lucky, which they have proven they can, as with the game they stole against the overwhelmingly mediocre Cowboys.

Fantasy Impact: Pierre Thomas was more efficient running the ball, but he did not get the goal line carries. Who knows how that shakes out the rest of the way but it has to make you believe that Mike Bell is still rosterable in deeper leagues. Lance Moore had his best game of the season, but you can't really rely on any Saints receiver other than Colston. Brees likes to get the ball to the open man, and that could be anyone on any play. Hakeem Nicks had a big game for the Giants, but most came on one pass. I wouldn't rush out to add the rookie.

And now, on to the rest of the NFL:

Vikings/Ravens: This was a wonderful football game. The Vikings looked like they clearly had the game in hand, and then the Ravens came charging back. I loved it. Then CBS had to pull it off in the final minutes and I didn't get to see Steven Hauschka miss the field goal. Bottom line, yes, the Vikings are better than I initially thought and the Brett Favre experiment is working, for now. I still don't think he will hold up over the course of a 16 game season, but at this time, they have played outstanding. The Ravens defense clearly misses Rex Ryan. They are a shaddow of their former selves. However, the combination of Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are scoring points each and every week. Ray Rice is a star folks. He was my favorite target this year in fantasy and I have him on every team. I wanted him at any cost, and he will be a first round pick next year. Both of these teams are about even, home field may have swung it. Or maybe it was just Hauschka's foot.

Fantasy Impact: Shame on me for not mentioning Sydney Rice yet this season. He just had his breakout game. If he's still available in your league, I don't know why, but add him. He is Favre's favorite target. He is a top 30 receiver right now. This game was all about the Rice's, as I mentioned with Ray getting 77 on the ground on 10 carries (Willis McGahee put the nails in his own coffin with 3 yards on 7 carries) and 117 yards on 10 catches out of 11 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns, so owners don't even need to worry about him not getting into the end zone this year. I honestly see him challenging Adrian Peterson for top fantasy honors this season. Peterson had a terrific day himself, going for 143 yards, but no touchdowns. He had an ankle injury at the end of the game, but it does not appear serious.

Steelers/Browns: The Browns stink, the Steelers are still pretty good. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are both awful, and the Browns may not win again. That's all their is to really say about this one. On to the fantasy news.

Fantasy Impact: Hines Ward is quietly having an exceptional season. 8 catches for 159 in this one. If you drafted him I commend you. I personally thought he might be over the hill, but he has proven the doubters wrong again and again. Willie Parker was back, but Mendenhall got 17 carries to Parker's 7. Look for this ratio to continue. Mendenhall is the back you want, and if you haven't dropped Parker yet, you can go ahead.

Panthers/Buccanneers: This game was another one of those pointless games between two awful teams. Its not worth spending any time on.

Fantasy Impact: Steve Smith (CAR) has said that he is no longer an asset to Carolina. Umm, not exactly a ringing endorsement to his fantasy prospects. His stock is plummeting, so if anyone out there still believes, you'll be able to get him cheap. I'm not one who does. Deangelo Williams had the day you drafted him for, finally. He'll be fine.

Chiefs/Redskins: The Chiefs are bad. The Redskins are worse. Moving on.

Fantasy impact: Larry Johnson had a serviceable game, but I still don't think he's rosterable. Clinton Portis averaged 7.3 yards per carry, but that isn't saying much against the Chiefs run defense. Jason Campbell was pulled, but he remains the starter, so if you are relying on him as a back up in 2 QB leagues, you can still keep him. That's about the only reason you'd want him on your team though.

Rams/Jaguars: I picked the Jaguars in my survival pools this week and they game me quite a scare. However, they pulled it out. Poor Rams. This is 16 in a row for them, and they have performed worse than the Lions over that time frame. Can they win a game? We'll see.

Fantasy Impact: MJD is showing us all that he can in fact carry a full load. 33 carries, 133 yards, 3 touchdowns. Outstanding work, and if you faced him, I'm willing to bet the outcome wasn't favorable. Mike Sims-Walker game back from his one game suspension and once again went over the century mark in yards. Bold prediction: He is a top 10 wide receiver by the end of the year in per game fantasy points. Torry Holt also had a nice game, catching 5 for 101 yards. All of the scores went to Jones-Drew though. Stephen Jackson has to get into the end zone sooner or later right? At least he is putting up yards and actually staying on the field. That should be all his owners really want at this point.

Texans/Bengals: Is it just me, or are these the two hardest teams to judge in the whole NFL? I can't figure them out from week to week. They either come out very strong or very lackluster. I think if they played 10 times, they would go 5-5. Both teams could be Super Bowl contenders on a good day, or in the bottom third of the league on a bad one. These teams are going to be very interesting to watch the rest of the way.

Fantasy Impact: Matt Schaub is making his bid to be a top 5 fantasy QB this season. He qualifies right now, and a few more games like this could solidify that campaign. Andre Johnson broke the Bengals string of shutting down number 1 receivers, going for 135 on 8 carries. Steve Slaton was much more effective through the air than on the ground, but you loved his day regardless of how he got it done. Owen Daniels scored two touchdowns, much to my delight (loved him this year) and is making a case to break into the Gates/Gonzalez/Witten group of tight ends on draft day. Maybe he'll even surpass them? For Cincinnati, Cedric Benson was finally stopped, gaining only 44 yards on 16 carries. I doubt anyone thought that would come from Houston. The sell high window may be closing (I will never advise buying Benson). If Andre Caldwell is available in your league and you need a wide receiver, he is a good option. Its pretty obvious he has become the number 2 option for Carson Palmer, and Chris Henry is nowhere in sight, confirming my pre-draft thinking that he'd be a bust.

Packers/Lions: The Packers come off the bye with a beatdown of the Lions. They dominated in every way, especially defensively, only giving up 149 total yards. I'm not giving up on the Packers for this season. I still think they are serious Super Bowl contenders.

Fantasy Impact: Calvin Johnson didn't play and his owners can only hope his injury isn't very serious. They, and the Lions for that matter, need Megatron to come back and perform. They had no offense with him and Stafford out of the lineup. Their bye is coming at the best time for them.

Cardinals/Seahawks: Ok, so I was wrong about this one. The Cardinals definitely still have something left in the tank and Seattle is not the bounce back team. I thought home field would still meant something in Seattle, but they only had 128 total yards against Arizona's defense. Arizona doesn't even have an average defense! That is atrocious. I can't tell you how bad the Seahawks played in this one, words can't describe it.

Fantasy Impact: Anquan Boldin got hurt in this one and might miss some time. Steve Breaton is full healthy however and looks like a great option for Arizona, getting 77 yards and a touchdown. Add him if someone in your league dropped him earlier in the season. Don't add any Seahawks.

Raiders/Eagles: These are the games that show why you can't beat the house. Why Las Vegas stays in business. Why gamblers rarely ever make money. There was no reason the Raiders would beat the Eagles in this one. On paper, they were thoroughly dominated in every conceivable way. They were my lock of the week. Many were leaving their survival pool lives on the backs of the Eagles. And then, they lost. I don't think this tells us anything about either team. The Raiders are still bad, the Eagles are still good, but I have to wonder if Andy Reid can lead this team back to a Super Bowl if he is letting his team roll over against a team that was running backwards in every way. Shame on you Eagles. If you lose to the Raiders, you did it to yourself.

Fantasy Impact: I apologize for saying you could drop Zach Miller. I thought his quarterback and injuries would really hamper a tight end that I really liked going into the year. I feel your pain those who did drop him, as he was a killer on Sunday. 139 yards and a touchdown. He might still be available, and if he is, you can add him back, but don't expect this every week. Don't ask me why the Eagles weren't effective. Play calling maybe? I didn't watch the game so its tough to put my finger on it, but I wouldn't be too worried.

Patriots/Titans: Yeah, so my team is terrible. So what? They should be starting Vince Young and seeing what they have. The secondary is hurt and bad, they can't rush the passer, and they certainly couldn't move the ball in the snow. The Patriots are still the Patriots and Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. He won me a fantasy matchup and I knew he'd go off. The Titans just don't have it. Please don't get rid of Jeff Fisher, its not his fault they stink. I'm rooting for the draft! This was a predictable game, only I didn't quite expect the Patriots to run it up so much, but hey, this is the NFL and I think if you can't stop them, they have every right to keep scoring.

Fantasy Impact: Hmm... the Patriots all did awesome and the Titans all did nothing. Ok so its not that simple. Sammy Morris got hurt, opening the door for Laurence Maroney to be THE guy running the ball. If you trust him, add him, but only if you really need to. He's still tough to put a lot of stake in, even though he performed well along with everyone else on his team. Chris Johnson is the only guy you can rely on on that Titans team for fantasy purposes. Unless Vince Young comes in and starts throwing actual complete passes. What a miserable game.

Jets/Bills: Ya think maybe we were all a little too quick to crown Mark Sanchez king of New York? They beat an enigmatic Houston team, a bad Titans team (which was close) and the Patriots before they were the Patriots again. Ever since they have gone 0-3 and Sanchez has looked, well, like a rookie. I didn't expect the Jets to be good for precisely this reason, and if he doesn't get back to playing a serviceable game, they could end up losing a whole lot more games and wasting a great defense. 5 picks is ridiculous.

Fantasy Impact: Sanchez totally wasted a brilliant 210 yard game from Thomas Jones. He continues to prove me wrong. I have never liked him, especially this year, but he makes me look silly. The reason I thought he would sharply decline, aside from his age, is Leon Washington, but they have been able to coexist nicely. Sanchez just kept giving the ball right back before they could score, so Jones got the lone touchdown for the Jets. Dustin Keller was targeted 10 times and only caught two balls. I'm giving him one more week to get on track. If he doesn't do something against the Raiders, I say drop him. Trent Edwards suffered a concussion and Ryan Fitzpatrick took over. He should at least start next week, and possibly beyond, if you are desperate in a 2 QB league.

Falcons/Bears: I like this Falcons team a lot. A lot of people seem to not be buying them as an elite team but I absolutely am. The Bears are a good team that could be undefeated if they weren't faced with a tough early schedule. Very good for a Sunday night game. Ultimately, I think the better team won. The defenses were the story, and Atlanta proved they aren't just a high flying offense. Cutler threw well for the Bears, but also threw two picks which were big for Atlanta's D. Good game, proved both teams are legit, that's about all.

Fantasy Impact: Both top 4 picks in this game underperformed, but especially Forte. I still say he's a buy low candidate. He can't be this bad all year. He just can't. Greg Olsen got in the end zone, a good sign for his owners.

Broncos/Chargers: I really liked the Chargers at home coming off a bye, but Norv Turner just killed them. Mismanaging his players, calling bad time outs, bad plays. The guy just sucks. I said that I'd never make another NFL prediction if they didn't win the AFC West. Well, I'm kicking myself now for not remembering the fact that Norv Turner can single handedly bring this team crashing down. I also didn't think the Broncos would be anywhere close to this good. I still think the Chargers are a good football team and will challenge the Broncos out west (and of course I used hyperbole preseason) but if they keep playing like this, it doesn't look good. The Broncos just look fantastic in every way. Who knew Kyle Orton was the next Peyton Manning? How do the Bears fans feel right now?

Fantasy Impact: Ladanian Tomlinson actually had a serviceable game, with 70 on the ground and 30 through the air. This still isn't the guy you drafted, and I do mean you, I wasn't going anywhere near him as you know by now. Over the hill LT will never be a star again. Tony Scheffler should be added if you are looking for a tight end. Kyle Orton is making a case to start in 10 team leagues. If he has a good match up, you might want to role with him.

That's all for me tonight. Power Rankings up tomorrow, Picks on Saturday this week! Stay tuned

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