Week 5 Picks

An actual column to go with the picks this week! Its the least I could do considering the abysmal performance from last week. Here's hoping I come through a little better this time around:

KANSAS CITY (+8) over Dallas
As I wrote in my weekly review column, I don't think Dallas is a good team. I think Kansas City is a horrible team, and think the Cowboys should win the game, but it won't be by more than 8 points. I actually expect a nice game from Matt Cassel in this one. Dallas has a tough time against the pass and he is due to show us what he can really do. KC keeps it close enough to cover.

CAROLINA (-4) over Washington
This game sucks. Both teams are exceptionally bad and I wouldn't want to watch a minute of it. I think Carolina is actually slightly better and they are at home so I think they can win this game, but it will be ugly. Really, who knows when two awful teams get together. We'll really figure out which is worse.

PHILADELPHIA (-15.5) over Tampa Bay
You know I love Philadelphia and hate Tampa Bay. As with Minnesota, this line couldn't be high enough. I can't see Tampa hanging anywhere close to this Eagles team, especially with McNabb back. This one is over before it starts.

Oakland (+15) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Oakland looks awful and they are hurting, but so are the Giants. Eli has been suffering from plantar fasciitis all week and if he plays, it will bother him. I don't think the Giants are that good even with a healthy Eli. Of course, I think it will be enough to get them past the Raiders, but it will be within 2 touchdowns. I expect a low scoring game as the Giants just try and salt this one away and control the clock.

BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
I hate these games where two distinctly awful teams play each other. What are they playing for? Buffalo is a little less bad, and they are at home. I expect them to run all over Cleveland's defense. That moral victory against Cincinnati earns Cleveland no points in my book. Buffalo shouldn't struggle.

Cincinnati (+8.5) over BALTIMORE
Cincinnati responded in week two after a tough loss to Denver in week one. I see more of the same happening here after narrowly beating an awful Cleveland team last week. I think they come back fired up, ready to go, and I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Baltimore outright. I definitely think it will be within a touchdown so take all those points.

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANSISCO
I think the Falcons are a better team than the 49ers and they are the underdogs in this one. The Niners are coming off a blowout over the Rams and now they have to come back and play a fresh and hungry Falcons team coming off a bye. I just think everything points to the Falcons in this one.

New England (-3.5) over DENVER
This is the game where we find out if Denver is for real. I just don't think they are. They could certainly prove me wrong, but the Patriots proved that they can beat anyone in football when they handled the Ravens last week. The master beats the student in this one.

Houston (+5.5) over Arizona
I think the Texans win this game. They are heating up and Arizona just doesn't impress me. Look for lots of points but Houston is going to put a dagger in Arizona's hopes that they are as good as they were last year and finally get people to start taking them seriously. If I had to pick an underdog to win, they are it.

Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE
I'm as baffled as Vegas is with this game. I think Seattle is a decent team that might be able to turn their season around. But I also saw Jacksonville demolish Tennessee last weekend. I am thinking they can ride that to a win in this game, and they are a slight underdog at the moment.

New York Jets (-2) over MIAMI
This is going to be a gritty, hard-nosed game won by defense. That is why I am taking the Jets. They have the better defense, Miami will struggle to score on them, and I trust Sanchez more than Henne not to kill his team. Should be a close game then.

Second Runner-Up Lock of the Week
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT
I can't see how Detroit is going to move the ball against Pittsburgh's defense. They may have to start Culpepper and Polamalu might be back in the Steeler's lineup so I really can't see them putting up too many points. Conversely, they gave up 48 to the Bears and I see no reason they have any better luck against the Steelers. This one won't be close.

First Runner-Up Lock of the Week
Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE
Indy is absolutely rolling. They are red hot and Tennessee is about as cold as can be. This isn't the team to bounce back against. It really could get ugly. Peyton is putting together an unbelievable season. That doesn't bode well for a team that can't stop the pass. It will be a hard game for me to watch.

LOCK OF THE WEEK
Minnesota (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS
St. Louis lost by 35 to San Fransisco. Minnesota beat Green Bay by 7. St. Louis is a winless team that is arguably the worst in the league. Minnesota is undefeated and playing great football. Sometimes, its really easy. I'd take Minnesota -20. AP is going to go off in this one. If you are facing him in fantasy this week, don't get your hopes up.

Last Week: 4-10
Overall: 34-28
Lock Picks: 6-6