Tuesday, November 17, 2009

So there was this 4th and 2... you may have heard about it

Patriots/Colts: There is no other place to start. It was the game of the week, and to say it lived up to the hype is a complete understatement. A game in which the Patriots thoroughly dominated for 3 quarters, then completely lost control and gave the game over to Peyton Manning, who led a legendary comeback.

But you don't care about that.

Everyone and their mother is talking about "The Call." The call made by sure-fire Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. The call that was indefensibly, incomprehensibly, undeniably D-U-M-B.

Now I know, there have been lots of pundits out there that want to tell me that the statistics show that the Patriots had a statistically better chance at going for it and converting, than stoping the Colts final drive. But this game is not played based on statistics. If you want to follow that theory, the Patriots shouldn't employ a punter. They should go for the attempt every single time. If there is one time in the game where you should not attempt to go for it on 4th down (and I am a huge proponent of coaches going for it more often) this was it. People like to throw around the terms "playing to win" and "playing not to lose." Well guess what? The definition of win is "to not lose". That is an argument over semantics and its frankly just stupid. What Belichick did here was playing "to decide the game his way." He wanted to decide the game on one play. They make it, they win, they don't make it, they lose. That is what happens. If Belichick didn't believe his team could stop Manning from 70 yards out, he sure didn't think they could stop him from 28. So they don't make it, they lose.

I just can't see how a coach can have so little confidence in his defense. Granted Peyton Manning is lethal inside of two minutes coming from behind, but he was not having his best game. He threw two brutal interceptions earlier in the game. The Patriots had stopped him on several occasions during the game. The last drive very well could have been ended early if the Colts didn't get a very questionable pass interference call in their favor for a 30+ yard gain. Peyton Manning is not infallible. You have to give your defense the chance to Do Their Jobs.

So the decision was made, Belichick wanted to be bold. He went for it and failed. Regardless of whether the correct spot was made or not (if they hadn't used their time outs so poorly, they would have been able to challenge, improperly using time outs early in the second half continues to bite teams in the ass, pardon the language) and maybe get the call overturned. But they had no time outs and the Colts had the ball. Belichick obviously had no faith in his defense, so why wouldn't he just tell them to let them score? Just let them go. Don't play defense. Let them score on one play, put the ball back in the hands of your offense with at least 1:30 left in the game. That is the only move that makes sense with the logic he used in going for it on 4th and 2.

But they didn't do that. They let the Colts chew up the clock and score the game winning touchdown. They had no chance for a comeback. This game is all on Belichick. I know he is a terrific coach. He is a hall of famer. But on this night, his hubris got the best of him, and it cost his team a win.

And so we move on...

Bears/49ers: This was the Thursday game, a game the Bears should have won. Poor play calling and Jay Cutler thinking that the Bears changed their team colors for most of the game doomed them. It was an all around ugly game and I kinda wish I didn't even watch it. It was pitiful, these are bad teams.

Bills/Titans: Roll on Titans! The fightin' Chris Johnson's are 3-0 under Vince Young. Johnson led the team in rushing and receiving, and just dominated this game. Give credit to the defense of Tennessee though, they are looking leaps and bounds ahead of what they were 3 weeks ago. Two interception touchdowns turned this game into a blow out. The new look Titans get a real test in Houston on Monday Night Football this week. I'll be watching intently.

Fantasy Alert: If your league dropped Nate Washington, you may want to go get him. And you might want to start thinking about playing Vince Young. He's been playing really well lately. Chris Johnson takes his place as the number one back in fantasy, at least for now.

Saints/Rams: This game proved you can beat the Saints. There is no reason that they shouldn't have dominated this game. They can't get lazy, this is the NFL. I hope their coaches stress this in pratice this week or they may be in for a fall that their talent level doesn't deserve.

Fantasy Alert: Man, that Saints backfield sure is tricky. I love Pierre Thomas, but Reggie Bush stole the show in this one. I wouldn't want to be an owner of any one of them. They are too all or nothing.

Dolphins/Buccaneers: The Bucs had this one in hand, but the Dolphins are the better team, and they gutted it out at the end. Just another one of those games that bad teams always lose, even if they deserve to win.

Fantasy Alert: Ronnie Brown could be missing some serious time. You need to find a replacement now, and if you didn't already have Ricky Williams, I doubt you'll be able to add him now. Running back injuries were the theme of the week, and guys like Forsett from Seattle, Snelling from Atlanta and Scott from Cincinnati all could see some serious time in the coming weeks.

Vikings/Lions: Nothing special, better team won. Moving on.

Jaguars/Jets: Here is a game where a coach made a controversial call that worked out. He had Maurice Jones-Drew take a knee at the one yard line instead of scoring a sure touchdown, as his fantasy owners cringed. This was so the Jaguars could kill the clock and kick an easy field goal as time expires. Many have argued that you need to take the points and play defense, but why give the ball back to the other team when you don't have to? They only needed a field goal to win. Basically it comes down to this:

You have two choices to win a game, which one would you pick, all you have to do is execute and you win:

Option A) The other team has the ball and you need to stop them from having a touchdown scoring drive

or

Option B) Kick an extra point

Which of these options has a higher success rate? I'll take kicking the extra point any day. Good job Jack Del Rio, and kudos to MJD for apologizing to his fantasy owners in his press conference.

Bengals/Steelers: This Bengals team was for real last week, but now they finally get credit for it. Good for them. I am putting them in the group of elite teams, and they are doing it with defense, who'd have thought?

Fantasy Alert: Cedric Benson was one of the running backs to leave the game with injury. Bernard Scott filled in nicely, but the team went out and signed Larry Johnson anyway. That isn't going to work, but it looks like Benson should be back next week anyway. Monitor the situation.

Broncos/Redskins: Ok, I could understand the first two losses, but the Redskins? Broncos you are killing your supporters! This is the anti-Titans. Started exceptionally hot and then colled off significantly. The schedule is really easy, but they lost to the Redskins! How can you trust them anymore?

Fantasy Alert: Brandon Marshall was on pace for about 100 fantasy points after one quarter, but then he stopped producing. This was due in large part to Kyle Orton getting hurt and Chris Simms stinking up the field. with no Orton, this team is in big trouble. That's right up there with "cedric Benson is a top ten fantasy back" on my list of things I'd never thought I would say. What a season.

Falcons/Panthers: This is what happens when you lose your outstanding running back and your young quarterback isn't as good as you may have thought. You lose to the Carolina Panthers. They will be amongst the biggest movers in this weeks power rankings, as will the Falcons, in the opposite direction. Turner is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, that spells doom on their season.

Fantasy Alert: Jason Snelling filled in for Turner, and if you lost Turner, he is the guy to go get. Like now!

Chiefs/Raiders: Nothing to see here. Move along.

Fantasy Alert: Dwayne Bowe has been suspended 4 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Chris Chambers moves to number one and Lance Long to number 2. I personally think they are both rosterable in all leagues.

Cowboys/Packers: Well what do you know, my love of this Packers team payed off for me! They really needed this win and they got it. Will Dallas have another late season collapse? Could this be the start of it? Will this springboard the Packers into the season they should be having with all their talent? Its too early to tell. We will need to see in the coming weeks, but these are definitely two of the most interesting teams in football. Very tough to figure out. Stay tuned folks, stay tuned on these two.

Cardinals/Seahawks: The right team won this game, despite Seattle getting off to a good start. This game had more of a fantasy impact than a real football one, so I'll just move on to that.

Fantasy Alert: Justin Forsett could be the best add of any replacement running backs this week. He finished the day with 123 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries. On the Cardinals side, Beanie Wells was impressive, scoring 2 touchdowns on 85 yards. The backfield could be swinging in his favor. I'd give it one more week before I name him a fantasy starter yet though. Hightower is still too good around the goal line and as a receiver out of a backfield for them not to use him.

Eagles/Chargers: Poor Brian Westbrook. Even poorer Brian Westbrook fantasy owners. He suffered his second concussion of the year in this game and I'd be surprised to see him play again this year. LeSean McCoy is the perfect example of a handcuff, and I see his value the rest of the way skyrocketing. But for the Chargers, its good to see LT get in on the action. Welcome to the season, you're 9 weeks late. The Chargers do look good though and they have a pivotal game against Denver coming up. They need to win that one to keep my predicting priveledges in tact.

Fantasy Alert: Don't expect this out of LT very often. He is still done. Outstanding game from Donovan McNabb though, props to him.

Browns/Ravens: The Browns are right where they belong in this column: the bottom. No one is worse in the NFL.

Power Rankings out tomorrow. Take care everyone.

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