Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Week 9 NFL Wrap Up

Eagerly awaiting the latest ESPN 30 for 30 Documentary tonight, which everyone should watch, they have been excellent, so in the meantime, I'm going to pound out my weekly wrap, in its full, unabridged goodness. Here we go:

Packers/Buccaneers: I'll start this wrap off with the game that hurt the most this weekend. The team that I picked to win the Super Bowl just lost to the worst team in football. How could this happen? They should have won by 30, and that is not an exaggeration. There is one very clear explanation for this: Green Bay's offensive line is historically bad. They are so great at just about every skill position, but they are unable to keep their quarterback off of his back. Now some of the blame definitely rests on Rogers, as he does have a tendency to hold onto the ball for too long, but the line does him no favors. I still think they can make the playoffs, as the schedule the rest of the way is very favorable, but anything could happen with a team that loses to Tampa.

Fantasy Impact: James Jones could be a serviceable wideout in deeper leagues, as he put up over 100 yards, but most came on 74 yard TD catch. Only deep leagues should consider him. Josh Freeman actually had a decent game and anyone who desperately needs a QB in two quarterback leagues might want to take a flyer on him. Derrick Ward got in the end zone, but I still wouldn't want to own him. Aaron Rodgers is a first round pick next year.

Dolphins/Patriots: The Patriots are an elite team and the Dolphins are a little better than their record indicates. They aren't good and won't make the playoffs, but they are fully mediocre, rather than terrible. They played the Pats tough but I don't think the game was ever really in doubt.

Fantasy Impact: Maroney has one more game to prove he really belongs as the number one back in New England. I personally wouldn't want to be relying on him if you can possibly avoid it.

Chiefs/Jaguars: These teams are bad, but hey good for the Chiefs to actually make this one a game. They didn't win but it could have been a lot worse. Jamal Charles seriously needs to see more touches in this offense, and Larry Johnson being cut is good for him. That said, unless they can stop teams from jumping out to a lead on them, they won't be running very often, as evidenced by their 14 carries in this game. Matt Cassell has been ok this season. Not great, but he is definitely a fully capable starter in this league. All that said, neither of these teams is going anywhere.

Fantasy Impact: Chris Chambers found his new home to be very fruitful, scoring two late touchdowns. Something like that can seriously help his fantasy numbers as his new quarterback now knows he can trust him in the red zone and look to him as the first target. Snatch him up if he's on your wire and you need a WR. On the other side, Mike Sims-Walker remains absolutely filthy. Best pick up of the year for me.

Falcons/Redskins: A good Falcons team beat up a terrible Redskins team. A little extra-curricular activity spiced this one up on the sidelines, but really, the Falcons completely outplayed the Skins in every way. Clinton Portis got hurt and that didn't help matters. Michael Turner just ran them to death.

Fantasy Impact: Turner proves once again that he kills bad teams. He is a great back and is disproving the curse of 370, but he still has games where he fails to do anything at all. This was clearly a game where he dominated everyone on the Redskins defense. At least his owners can feel confident that he wasn't a huge bust, unlike a few other high profile picks.

Cardinals/Bears: I should have made this game one of my locks. The Bears are really struggling on both sides of the ball and Arizona isn't a bad team by any means. In fact, they are making a great case that the Super Bowl loser curse isn't affecting them at all. They have had a couple bad games, but they are still the class of their poor division and will coast to the playoffs. The Bears got behind early and had to throw all day long, a style that doesn't suit them. They are a mess right now.

Fantasy Impact: It was a feeding frenzy for the Cardinals studs. Fitzgerald had 123 yards and 2 touchdowns, Steve Breaston filled in for Anquan Boldin and racked up 91 total yards and a TD. Both Cardinals running backs went over 70 yards and both should be rostered in all leagues. Even the Cardinals tight ends Ben Patrick and Anthony Becht got in on the scoring action, but don't expect that to become a regular thing. On the Chicago side of the ball, Matt Forte might have had a good game... if he got more than 5 carries! He still gained 33 yards for an average of 6.6. The guy is still very good, he just needs more opportunities, but the Bears were far behind in this one and needed to throw. And throw they did all over the field but especially to Greg Olsen, who got his official welcome to the fantasy season! Some touted him as a top 5 tight end before the year and until now, he has shown to be a major bust. Not in this one. He amasses 71 yards and found the end zone a whopping 3 times! That said, he was only the fourth best receiver in terms of total yardage, as Devin Hester had 94, Earl Bennett had 93, and Matt Forte grabbed 74 to go with his 33 rushing. This game was a fantasy feast. Kurt Warner had 5 touchdowns and looked like the Warner of last year. Unfortunately, the only guy you might be able to grab is Bennett. Maybe Breaston if you play in a shallow league or one with slow managers. If they are there, they shouldn't be much longer.

Bengals/Ravens: I will say this as bluntly as I can: I will not be doubting this Bengals team for the rest of the season. They are good. They can be VERY good. They have all the weapons. Palmer looks back to his old self. Cedric Benson has found his new self. Chad Ochocinco is back to being an All-Pro receiver. But most importantly, the defense is so vastly improved from any point in recent Bengals history. They can play with anyone in the league. I still think the Ravens are a very good team, the Bengals just outplayed them. Every time the game scrolled by on the bottom with the score update it seemed like the Bengals had the ball. They were dominant. The only guy that could do anything in this game for the Ravens was Ray Rice, who is a top 5 back in this league, right now.

Fantasy Impact: Cedric Benson and Ray Rice are both first round picks and they were both big in this game. It was all about the running game in this one. Chris Henry of the Bengals went down for the year, so if you had him (although he's been a bust) you will need a replacement.

Colts/Texans: The Texans probably should have won this game, but this was one of those situations where the great team pulls it out and the lesser team falls short. The Colts are a great team. Year in and year out they prove it. They are a fantastic team, with a fantastic core of winners. The Texans don't have the mental fortitude to pull out a game like this, and it ended with a missed field goal. A lot of people think the Colts are the front-runners right now, and they are great, but I still put them a spot behind New Orleans. The Texans are a good team, but I think they showed that is all they are right now. A one and done Playoff team at best.

Fantasy Impact: The real fantasy story hear is the epic battle between two ineffective running backs: Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton. Moats had 16 carries to Slaton's 6, but he also fumbled on the one yard line, which was why Slaton wasn't starting in the first place. Slaton got the only rushing touchdown, but Moats caught one. Slaton averaged 2.8 yards, while Moats averaged 2.4. I still think Slaton is the better player, and he will establish himself as the number one when it matters, for the fantasy playoffs.

Seahawks/Lions: I can't talk about this game. They both suck that stupid last second interception return for a touchdown got the Seahawks a cover they didn't deserve. Moving on.

Saints/Panthers: The Panthers jumped out to the early lead, but I was never in doubt that the Saints would win this game. Just like the Colts/Texans game, the better teams almost always win these types of games. The Saints have proven that they can score at will. That is exactly how they won this game. They scored on offense, they scored on defense, it was another great win for the NFL's best team.

Fantasy Impact: Deangelo Williams is putting up huge numbers in his last couple of games and is making that fantasy push that he made last year to vault him to number one status. I'm not saying he'll finish the year that way again. I am however saying that he will justify where you drafted him. Great games from Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson for the Saints. They have four receivers that could put up useful fantasy lines in any given week and have shown that while Colston is Brees' favorite, he has no hesitation to throw to anyone else on the field. He trusts them all.

Chargers/Giants: The Giants continue their free fall to mediocrity but the difference here is that they should have won this game. They had it in the bag, then they couldn't stop Phillip Rivers in the final 2 minutes. They have the most over-rated defense in football. Its almost impossible to even make a case for them anymore, not that I ever would to begin with. The Giants made the wrong decision to trade Rivers and the picks that ended up being Merriman and Kaeding to get Eli. I know they won a Super Bowl, but Rivers is a better quarterback. He showed why again this weekend with a terrific drive to bury the Giants. They don't have a shot at the playoffs, and now my 9-7 prediction is looking too nice. I even thought they would win one over the Cardinals or Chargers. They will be lucky to finish 8-8. The only really winnable games they have left are against Carolina and Washington. That would leave them at 7-9. The Chargers on the other hand are only one game behind the Broncos and making my "must win the west" prediction for the Chargers a little more safe.

Fantasy Impact: With every game that goes by with a useless Ladanian Tomlinson, I get more and more giddy about labeling him done. I don't care if you care about it anymore, I'm doing this one for me. It is so nice to watch everyone that wasted a first round pick on this washed up bum of a running back flounder towards the bottom of the standings. Beyond that, the true storyline of the Chargers season is the emergence of Vincent Jackson as a top 5 fantasy wide receiver. I would rank only Fitzgerald, Moss, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson ahead of him going into next season. He is an absolute monster, scoring 2 TDs on 58 yards in this one, including the game winner.

Titans/49ers: The reign of Vince Young continues for my Titans! Here we come 10-6! Ok so no, that really won't happen. And it isn't really Vince Young that won them the last two games. However, he hasn't lost those games either. I really think he is the quarterback of the future for this franchise and never lost faith in him. But the reason they are winning games is Chris Johnson. He is the only back in the league that you can even put in the conversation with Adrian Peterson for best running back in the game. Just watch the guy run when he gets some open space. No one explodes like he does. He is the fastest back in the league and he is single handedly beating teams. I'm so glad he's on my team, because I wouldn't want to have to figure out how to stop him.

Fantasy Impact: 135 yards and two touchdowns. That is what Chris Johnson looks like when he isn't even on his A-game. There is no question he will go in the top 3 in every fantasy draft next year. Vernon Davis continues to be amazing, and haunt me for giving up on him a year too soon. I swear between him and Cedric Benson it makes me feel like nobody knows nothin.

Cowboys/Eagles: These teams are both pretty good, but the Cowboys proved to be a little better. I think there are four Elite teams in the league, but both of these teams are right outside of that tier. The Eagles were torpedoed by Andy Ried's poor clock management and waste of challenges, but if you watched the game you don't need me to tell you that. It was so obvious he had no idea what he was doing and he cost them a game they had a chance to win. I am fascinated to see what both teams do the rest of the way. They could both contend for a Super Bowl, be one and done, or one could even miss the playoffs altogether. Right now, the Cowboys are better.

Fantasy Impact: If you have Lesean McCoy in a keeper league at a good late round value, you want to hang onto him. He is a Brian Westbrook clone. He is already great and I don't think the Eagles lose anything when they have to start him because fantasy bust Brian Westbrook misses time with one of his numerous injuries.

Steelers/Broncos: The Steelers are the 4th Elite team in football, and proved that the Broncos are not. They are still pretty good, but not in that upper class. I think they may have peaked too early and everyone jumped on the bandwagon, but they probably are not as good as they have appeared. They have been a little smoke and mirrors, but only just a little. I still think they are good enough to make the playoffs, as anyone with a defense that good is. But they are certainly a beatable team and if they come across a very strong team, like the Steelers, their weaknesses can easily be exploited. The Steelers could repeat this year, but I think The Colts and Patriots stand firmly in their way.

Fantasy Impact: Rashard Mendenhall just took the Pittsburgh Steelers running back and made it his. There is no more doubt about who is going to get the vast majority of carries for the Steelers. 22 carries for 155 yards is quite impressive for the young back. Another great keeper option if you have him at a good value.

Thats what I have for you this week. Watching 30 for 30 on the legend of Jimmy the Greek as I type. If you don't catch it this time it will reshow on Monday night on ESPN 2. Strongly recommended. Until next time...

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