Tomorrow kicks off the best sporting event of the year: The NCAA basketball tournament. My love for this event runs deep. I've been filling out brackets since I was seven years old. The first weekend is hands down the greatest weekend in sports all year. You don't get this kind of drama and excitement from any other event. No other playoff system matches the brilliance that is March Madness. I love this game.
As far as this year's tournament is concerned, it is going to be a wild one. No one team has separated themselves at the top. We will not see what we saw last year, with the four number one seeds making the Final Four. That I can guarantee. Every team has fatal flaws. They all seem to have mailed in games at some point in the season. Really, I think any one of 8 teams can win it this season. I think the teams that have a legitimate shot are Louisville, Michigan State, Missouri, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse. I know I know, I'm not going out on a limb there, but hey, I only have one of the number one seeds in the Final 4, more on that later.
Back to this weekend. I expect this first round to have the most upsets of any in recent memory. There are so many potential sleepers in this field. Not only that, but I feel that the field has tightened around the middle quite a bit. The 11 seeds are not that far away from the 6 seeds. The mediocrity of talent in this year's field will absolutely make for an exciting first round. As far as my personal upset picks, I've got 9 seed Butler, all four 10 seeds USC, Maryland, Michigan and Minnesota, 11 seeds Utah State, Temple and Virginia Commonwealth, 12 seed Western Kentucky and 13 seed Mississippi State knocking off 4 seed Washington.
Now I am not one that would usually put that many underdogs through to the second round, but this year, I feel like I may even be underestimating teams. There are even more that I'd like to put through but couldn't do it. I do feel like these teams will have a very difficult time making it beyond round two, but if you are looking for upset potential, take a good look at those teams.
Now on to Geezer's picks for the Final 4. Coming out of the Midwest Region:
The Michigan State Spartans. Now, as I mentioned in the first post, I'm a big fan of the Spartans. I always have been. I really try not to let this influence me when filling out my brackets, but I really think this team has what it takes. I don't think they have a difficult road to the Final 4. I think that Louisville is an over-rated number one seed. They didn't have to play the big dogs of the Big East in the Big East tournament and I think they will get exposed against a finally healthy Michigan State team. I think Izzo can put this together and send the Spartans back to the final 4.
From the West Region:
The Missouri Tigers. I think Missouri can get through, knocking off Purdue in the Elite 8. They are going to be the first real challenge Memphis sees this season and I just don't think Coach Cal's team will be ready this season. I loved them last year, but losing Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts will really hurt them against an aggressive Missouri defense. UConn has had a really difficult time scoring the ball recently and I just think Purdue is really hot right now and they will carry their momentum to knocking out UConn as the first number 1 seed to fall. Missouri smothers Purdue and heads to the Final 4.
From the East Region:
The Pittsburgh Panthers. I just think this is the most talented team in the field. I have been riding them all year. I can not give up on my horse now. I love the combination of Levance Fields and Dejuan Blair. If Blair stays out of foul trouble, this team is unstoppable. I see them winning a close dogfight with a really hot Duke team to make the final 4.
From the South Region:
The Syracuse Orange. I just can't put North Carolina into the final 4. There are too many question marks with Ty Lawson's toe. I think that 6 OT win against UConn will do wonders for this team. They will be rested and carrying that momentum. They will knock off North Carolina and face fellow Big East powerhouse Pittsburgh in the final 4.
My finals prediction:
Pittsburgh over Michigan State. I'm taking the team I've backed all year over team near and dear to my heart. There is no way that I can be all that confident in any selection I make, because like I mentioned earlier, there is no one team that stands out. Pittsburgh can be dominant but they have also laid their share of eggs. I am hoping that they can put it all together and prove me right. I had a perfect final 4 last season, hopefully I can pull that off again. Memphis disappointed me in the finals. I'm hoping Pitt doesn't do the same. Of course, if they do, it will be perfectly fine by me if they are losing to my Spartans.
And that's my analysis of this year's field. I'll be covering the whole tournament as it plays out. It is sure to be fun. If anyone wants a look at my complete bracket, email me or leave me a comment and I will definitely share it with you. Until then, I'm out.
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-Pitt won't be in the Final Four. They have a history of choking in the tournament and I'm still trying to figure out how they got a one seed over Memphis.
ReplyDelete-Mizzou is a year away. This is their first tournament appearance in a number of years and many of these players have never seen NIT, let alone NCAA tournament experience. Plus like Pitt, they too have a history of choking.
-North Carolina is not dead. Sure they lost Lawson (or whatever his name is) but they've still got Hansborough and this is basically "Win One For Tyler" at this point.
-I can't see Temple escaping the first round. Their coach is 1-10 in tournament games and the team itself will probably never reach of those days of the John Chaney teams again.
-I really don't understand what the big deal is about USC. Their coach is one of the most overrated in college basketball and wasn't the team that lost in the first round last year supposed to be better than this team?
-Michigan won't go past the first round either. Just like Mizzou, they haven't been in the tournament in forever and they are also "not ready for prime time".
-I also can't see Minnesota or Utah State going anywhere.
-And I may be the only person who has Siena beating Ohio State in the first round. This is just like the Arkansas-Bucknell game a few years back where everyone (except me) picked Arkansas and Bucknell won the game. Siena has something to prove with the nine seed while Ohio State is another Big Ten also-ran who's lucky to even be in the tournament. But then again, I hate most of the Big Ten and can't understand its popularity when in actuality they are a middle-of-the-pack football and basketball conference where the same teams always finish in the same positions every year.
Pitt got a one seed because they actually played good teams and beat them during the season. Good point about Missouri, they may be a year away, but I really like their style of play and think it will give Memphis fits. North Carolina has shown us exactly what they can do without Lawson. They are not the same team. If he doesn't come back fully healthy, they are in big trouble. They could go out to Gonzaga. Temple is hot, so is USC. I like riding that hot hand when their opponent isn't all that special. Minnesota is a toss up, but I like Utah State against Marquette who has just been terrible since Dominic James went down. I actually see a lot more experts picking Siena over Ohio State and it could happen, I just have to play a little Big 10 favoritism. We'll see who is right at the end of the week. Good luck in your pools and thanks for the comment.
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